Friday 30th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling was at a 1 week high against the dollar yesterday, and was up very slightly against the euro. This was due to the Swiss National Bank saying they would look to increase its foreign exchange reserves of sterling assets next year, creating some support for the Pound. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1512
• GBP/USD 1.5547
• GBP/AUD 1.5967
• GBP/NZD 2.0365
• GBP/CHF 1.4036
• GBP/CAD 1.6196
• GBP/ZAR 12.427
• GBP/JPY 119.16
• GBP/DKK 8.5662
• GBP/NOK 9.0841
• EUR/USD 1.3500
Sterling holding firm against USD and EUR, but gains likely to be limited
Despite the decent support we've seen for Sterling this week, we still think that any gains for the Pound are likely to be capped and limited, given concerns about a fragile UK economy and its vulnerability to any escalation of the euro zone debt crisis. Also, as we've been talking about all week, there are market expectations that the Bank of England will soon launch another round of quantitative easing. This would weaken the Pound and pull exchange rates down.
The BoE holds a monetary policy committee meeting next Thursday, and the closer we get to the decision and the more likely QE seems, exchange rates could start to fall. Economists in a Reuters poll forecast the bank will resume quantitative easing in November, but it also revealed there was a 40% chance it could start next week.
"Sterling still looks in a downtrend," said Richard Wiltshire, chief FX broker at ETX Capital. He said market players were inclined to sell on rallies, keeping sterling capped below $1.57 against the dollar.
BoE chief economist Spencer Dale said in a newspaper interview yesterday that a weakening of the global economy looked more persistent than first thought and more monetary stimulus may be needed if the situation worsened further. As comments like this increase the chance of QE, we expect pressure on Sterling.
Today's Data
Today the UK sees the GFK survey which measures economic confidence. We also have GDP figures for the UK which is the most notable UK release of the week. EU unemployment figures are also released. Stateside we see Inflation Data and income figures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
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Jumat, 30 September 2011
Kamis, 29 September 2011
Sterling vs Euro Outlook Forecast October 2011
Thursday 29th September
Good morning. Sterling was range bound against the US Dollar yesterday, and down slightly on the Euro. This is because risk appetite has been boosted by optimism that policymakers could stave off a Greek default for the time being, however signs the Bank of England may adopt more stimulus measures is keeping the Pound in check. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1481
• GBP/USD 1.5634
• GBP/AUD 1.5920
• GBP/NZD 2.0063
• GBP/CHF 1.4012
• GBP/CAD 1.6112
• GBP/ZAR 12.278
• GBP/JPY 119.57
• GBP/DKK 8.5432
• GBP/NOK 9.0105
• EUR/USD 1.3611
Sterling down vs the Euro
The pound was down slightly versus the euro during trading yesterday. The single currency has been supported on news that leaders are resuming their mission to Greece today, and that euro zone finance ministers will meet again in October to discuss the release of more aid . This strengthened the Euro and made it more expensive to purchase.
Also hampering the Pound is the continued speculation that there will be more Quantitative Easing which is weakening the Pound and keeping exchange rates from rising.
Germany faces test in EU bailout vote
German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a vote on whether to approve new powers for the EU's main bailout fund. The vote is on whether to endorse a eurozone commitment to boost bailout guarantees to €440bn. Chancellor Merkel has said she believes the vote is about Germany demonstrating its determination to save the euro.
However, as Greece seemingly nears default and the debt crisis increasingly threatens to envelop Italy, a consensus has emerged in the past days that the current deal being voted on by the Bundestag does not go far enough. G20 leaders met over the weekend to discuss the best way forward, but EU officials stressed that no grand plan of action had been agreed.
How might this affect exchange rates?
If a plan is agreed, then it could strengthen the Euro, making it more expensive and push GBP/EUR rates down. If however analysts think that the plan will not be enough to stop Greece from defaulting on it's debts, then the Euro could weaken and GBP/EUR rates could rise.
Behind all of this is the QE risk in the UK that will likely limit any gains. When times are so uncertain, you can use Stop Loss and Limit Orders. This allows you to place an upper limit where your currency will automatically be purchase if rates rise. At the same time, a Stop Loss places a lower limit so you have a worst case scenario. In this way you can still hope for a higher rate, but not leave yourself open to losses should rates indeed drop away.
Send us an enquiry now to find out more about these contract types.
Today's Data
From the UK today we have Money Supply data. From the EU there are business climate and consumer sentiment surveys. In the US there are various releases including Jobless Claims, Home Sales and GDP figures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling was range bound against the US Dollar yesterday, and down slightly on the Euro. This is because risk appetite has been boosted by optimism that policymakers could stave off a Greek default for the time being, however signs the Bank of England may adopt more stimulus measures is keeping the Pound in check. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1481
• GBP/USD 1.5634
• GBP/AUD 1.5920
• GBP/NZD 2.0063
• GBP/CHF 1.4012
• GBP/CAD 1.6112
• GBP/ZAR 12.278
• GBP/JPY 119.57
• GBP/DKK 8.5432
• GBP/NOK 9.0105
• EUR/USD 1.3611
Sterling down vs the Euro
The pound was down slightly versus the euro during trading yesterday. The single currency has been supported on news that leaders are resuming their mission to Greece today, and that euro zone finance ministers will meet again in October to discuss the release of more aid . This strengthened the Euro and made it more expensive to purchase.
Also hampering the Pound is the continued speculation that there will be more Quantitative Easing which is weakening the Pound and keeping exchange rates from rising.
Germany faces test in EU bailout vote
German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a vote on whether to approve new powers for the EU's main bailout fund. The vote is on whether to endorse a eurozone commitment to boost bailout guarantees to €440bn. Chancellor Merkel has said she believes the vote is about Germany demonstrating its determination to save the euro.
However, as Greece seemingly nears default and the debt crisis increasingly threatens to envelop Italy, a consensus has emerged in the past days that the current deal being voted on by the Bundestag does not go far enough. G20 leaders met over the weekend to discuss the best way forward, but EU officials stressed that no grand plan of action had been agreed.
How might this affect exchange rates?
If a plan is agreed, then it could strengthen the Euro, making it more expensive and push GBP/EUR rates down. If however analysts think that the plan will not be enough to stop Greece from defaulting on it's debts, then the Euro could weaken and GBP/EUR rates could rise.
Behind all of this is the QE risk in the UK that will likely limit any gains. When times are so uncertain, you can use Stop Loss and Limit Orders. This allows you to place an upper limit where your currency will automatically be purchase if rates rise. At the same time, a Stop Loss places a lower limit so you have a worst case scenario. In this way you can still hope for a higher rate, but not leave yourself open to losses should rates indeed drop away.
Send us an enquiry now to find out more about these contract types.
Today's Data
From the UK today we have Money Supply data. From the EU there are business climate and consumer sentiment surveys. In the US there are various releases including Jobless Claims, Home Sales and GDP figures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Rabu, 28 September 2011
Sterling up as IMF and ECB try to resolve debt crisis
Wednesday 28th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against the Euro and US Dollar slightly. This was due to cautious optimism that policymakers were putting together measures to ease the euro zone debt crisis. This supported demand for riskier currencies such as the Pound, and this is why we're up slightly, however as we will see shortly it's not likely to continue. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1502
• GBP/USD 1.5656
• GBP/AUD 1.5783
• GBP/NZD 1.9875
• GBP/CHF 1.4036
• GBP/CAD 1.6000
• GBP/ZAR 12.242
• GBP/JPY 119.69
• GBP/DKK 8.5597
• GBP/NOK 8.9846
• EUR/USD 1.3603
Optimism over Greek debt boosts risky currencies
European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials are expected to review progress today in cutting its debt levels. They will decide whether to release about 8bn euros from a 110bn bailout package agreed last summer.
There has been renewed optimism this week that eurozone leaders may finally be ready to take decisive action to tackle the debt crisis. This has strengthened riskier currencies slightly such as the Pound, and as a result exchange rates for GBP/USD have risen slightly.
However, analysts said the brief rally was down to an absence of bad news rather than expectations of a concrete plan to sort out the bailout fund, and the gains are likely to be short-lived given the lukewarm German support.
G20 leaders met over the weekend to discuss the best way forward, but EU officials stressed that no grand plan of action had been agreed. However, markets remain highly volatile, with investors remaining sceptical of policymakers' ability to solve the crisis quickly.
So will the Pound go up or down?
Many analysts think Sterling could face more selling pressure on persistent speculation the Bank of England may implement more monetary stimulus before the end of the year, in order to boost the lagging UK economy. This would require the BoE to print more pounds and flood the market with the currency, swamping demand. This in turn will likely weaken Sterling and exchange rates could drop.
If however there is agreement in Europe, it could strengthen the Euro and pull rates upwards.
What do the analysts say?
"Every time the market gets its hopes up that a solution to the eurozone crisis is near, the rug gets pulled from under it," said Ben Potter at IG Markets. "Only when we see firm action being taken, rather than hollow promises, will confidence and sentiment begin to improve."
So there is still scepticism that there will be resolution today, and exchange rates are likely to remain volatile as a result.
Today's Data
The GFK survey from Germany is released today. This measures confidence in the EU’s largest economy, but is likely to be overshadowed by the continued EU debt crisis and the meetings today to try and resolve it. We also have French GDP figures, showing any growth or lack of growth in the economy.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling rose against the Euro and US Dollar slightly. This was due to cautious optimism that policymakers were putting together measures to ease the euro zone debt crisis. This supported demand for riskier currencies such as the Pound, and this is why we're up slightly, however as we will see shortly it's not likely to continue. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1502
• GBP/USD 1.5656
• GBP/AUD 1.5783
• GBP/NZD 1.9875
• GBP/CHF 1.4036
• GBP/CAD 1.6000
• GBP/ZAR 12.242
• GBP/JPY 119.69
• GBP/DKK 8.5597
• GBP/NOK 8.9846
• EUR/USD 1.3603
Optimism over Greek debt boosts risky currencies
European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) officials are expected to review progress today in cutting its debt levels. They will decide whether to release about 8bn euros from a 110bn bailout package agreed last summer.
There has been renewed optimism this week that eurozone leaders may finally be ready to take decisive action to tackle the debt crisis. This has strengthened riskier currencies slightly such as the Pound, and as a result exchange rates for GBP/USD have risen slightly.
However, analysts said the brief rally was down to an absence of bad news rather than expectations of a concrete plan to sort out the bailout fund, and the gains are likely to be short-lived given the lukewarm German support.
G20 leaders met over the weekend to discuss the best way forward, but EU officials stressed that no grand plan of action had been agreed. However, markets remain highly volatile, with investors remaining sceptical of policymakers' ability to solve the crisis quickly.
So will the Pound go up or down?
Many analysts think Sterling could face more selling pressure on persistent speculation the Bank of England may implement more monetary stimulus before the end of the year, in order to boost the lagging UK economy. This would require the BoE to print more pounds and flood the market with the currency, swamping demand. This in turn will likely weaken Sterling and exchange rates could drop.
If however there is agreement in Europe, it could strengthen the Euro and pull rates upwards.
What do the analysts say?
"Every time the market gets its hopes up that a solution to the eurozone crisis is near, the rug gets pulled from under it," said Ben Potter at IG Markets. "Only when we see firm action being taken, rather than hollow promises, will confidence and sentiment begin to improve."
So there is still scepticism that there will be resolution today, and exchange rates are likely to remain volatile as a result.
Today's Data
The GFK survey from Germany is released today. This measures confidence in the EU’s largest economy, but is likely to be overshadowed by the continued EU debt crisis and the meetings today to try and resolve it. We also have French GDP figures, showing any growth or lack of growth in the economy.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Selasa, 27 September 2011
Pound rises against Euro and Dollar, but gains limited
Tuesday 27th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling rose against both the Euro and US Dollar yesterday, as a UK bank had to convert significant sums to Sterling, strengthening the currency. The Pound rose against the Euro on talk of further plans to help Greece with it's debts. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1502
• GBP/USD 1.5574
• GBP/AUD 1.5742
• GBP/NZD 1.9761
• GBP/CHF 1.4042
• GBP/CAD 1.5970
• GBP/ZAR 12.349
• GBP/JPY 118.92
• GBP/DKK 8.5560
• GBP/NOK 8.9574
• EUR/USD 1.3538
Sterling rises against Euro & US Dollar
The Euro weakened slightly yesterday, on the news that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will hold talks with Angela Merkel to discuss his country's progress in cutting its budget deficit. The meeting comes as policymakers decide whether to release the latest tranche of Greek bailout funds.
European leaders are trying to agree a comprehensive package to solve the eurozone debt crisis once and for all, however divisions remain between member states on how best to do so. Due to the continued uncertainty and lack of direction in the EU, this caused some weakness in the Euro and pushed rates up above €1.15.
Gains limited due to threat of further Quantitative Easing
Despite its gains yesterday, Sterling remained under pressure against both the Euro and US Dollar, on concerns a fragile UK economy could prompt the Bank of England to resort to more monetary easing.
Comments from BoE policymaker Ben Broadbent in an interview yesterday fueled the view the monetary policy committee will pursue another round of quantitative easing after he said the economy would not have to weaken much more to warrant more stimulus. This is likely to keep any gains for the Pound in check, and analysts are predicting further falls for Sterling.
What do the analysts say?
"He very much sums up the view of the BoE. He came in a hawk, when inflation was elevated, and when data was holding up fairly well. Today he said he was very close to calling for QE whereas that would have been impossible when he first came in," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS.
"That's the same with other members, including Spencer Dale and Martin Weale, who were calling for hikes only a few months ago, but now are calling for QE themselves."
Today's Data
EU lending figures are released today, which investors watch as a sign of confidence in the economy. From the US we have Consumer Confidence figures which could affect GBP/USD rates.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling rose against both the Euro and US Dollar yesterday, as a UK bank had to convert significant sums to Sterling, strengthening the currency. The Pound rose against the Euro on talk of further plans to help Greece with it's debts. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1502
• GBP/USD 1.5574
• GBP/AUD 1.5742
• GBP/NZD 1.9761
• GBP/CHF 1.4042
• GBP/CAD 1.5970
• GBP/ZAR 12.349
• GBP/JPY 118.92
• GBP/DKK 8.5560
• GBP/NOK 8.9574
• EUR/USD 1.3538
Sterling rises against Euro & US Dollar
The Euro weakened slightly yesterday, on the news that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will hold talks with Angela Merkel to discuss his country's progress in cutting its budget deficit. The meeting comes as policymakers decide whether to release the latest tranche of Greek bailout funds.
European leaders are trying to agree a comprehensive package to solve the eurozone debt crisis once and for all, however divisions remain between member states on how best to do so. Due to the continued uncertainty and lack of direction in the EU, this caused some weakness in the Euro and pushed rates up above €1.15.
Gains limited due to threat of further Quantitative Easing
Despite its gains yesterday, Sterling remained under pressure against both the Euro and US Dollar, on concerns a fragile UK economy could prompt the Bank of England to resort to more monetary easing.
Comments from BoE policymaker Ben Broadbent in an interview yesterday fueled the view the monetary policy committee will pursue another round of quantitative easing after he said the economy would not have to weaken much more to warrant more stimulus. This is likely to keep any gains for the Pound in check, and analysts are predicting further falls for Sterling.
What do the analysts say?
"He very much sums up the view of the BoE. He came in a hawk, when inflation was elevated, and when data was holding up fairly well. Today he said he was very close to calling for QE whereas that would have been impossible when he first came in," said Chris Walker, currency strategist at UBS.
"That's the same with other members, including Spencer Dale and Martin Weale, who were calling for hikes only a few months ago, but now are calling for QE themselves."
Today's Data
EU lending figures are released today, which investors watch as a sign of confidence in the economy. From the US we have Consumer Confidence figures which could affect GBP/USD rates.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Senin, 26 September 2011
Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and weekly economic data
Good morning. As usual for Monday's, today we'll take a look at how the currency markets fared last week, with a detailed look at Sterling vs Euro and Sterling vs US Dollar exchange rates.
In this week’s Report:
• GBP/USD falls to 1 year low
• Eurozone crisis continues
• Safe Haven currencies gaining strength
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
An all too familiar week for the Sterling Euro cross saw a high of 1.1526 and a low of 1.1373 as concerns about the Euro play off against a weak pound, currently governed by further talks of Quantitative Easing. Mediocre data releases continue to have less effect on a market currently driven heavily by investor movement and risk aversion.
Greece continues to play a leading role in Eurozone developments, despite its inferior percentage share of the Eurozone economy as a whole. With the French and Germans in particular heavily invested in the Greek recovery, European stocks tumbled early Friday on fears the region's banks would take more write downs on their Greek debt exposure.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos was quoted by two newspapers as saying “an orderly default with a 50 percent haircut for bondholders was one of three scenarios for resolving the country's fiscal woes”. In layman's terms, the prospect of Greece defaulting on further payments is still a very real possibility.
With this in mind, you would think the Euro would start to slacken off against the pound in the same way it is slowly being grappled into submission by the revitalised and strengthening Greenback… many in the know claim that the Euro is still overvalued by 15% and be that as it may, the single currency is showing to be 6% stronger against the pound than it was this time last year…
Talking up of the Euro by the ECB and an unfounded in-house optimism seems to keep the Euro fighting against the pound for the time being. Forecasts are changing from week to week as to where we will be heading in terms of sterling strength over the next few months as the market shows signs of potentially making a break one way or the other .
Do you need to buy or sell Euros? Send us an enquiry now.
Sterling vs. US Dollar;
The start of the week saw the GBP/USD trading around the 1.57 level (interbank). With the continued uncertainty in the Euro Zone and increased demand for the USD, GBP/USD rates kept on falling as the dollar strengthened against the pound. The end of the week saw the GBP/USD fall to a 12 month low of 1.5326 (interbank) not seen since September 2010.
One of the contributing factors to the USD’s recent surge was gold shedding 8% over the past two weeks, with about a quarter of that decline coming on Monday. Investors poured into the dollar even though the Federal Reserve has all but promised to keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-2013. This further shows how investors are moving towards the safe haven of the USD.
In order for the USA to increase borrowing and accelerate spending to boost the economy, ‘Operation Twist’ was implemented and involved the Federal Reserve purchasing $400 billion worth of long-term bonds whilst selling an equal amount of shorter-dated securities. Through this decision it seems as if the world’s most powerful central bank will not be restarting Quantitative Easing (QE) whilst the Bank of England is currently mulling over whether to fire up the printing presses.
With the Bank of England (BoE) expected to move towards QE, and with the Federal Reserve not bothering to step into the markets, this pair fell hard as the USD gained value. A fresh round of asset purchasing by the BoE would be negative for the pound as such a programme requires authorities to boost supply by flooding the market with the currency.
Some in the market believe the need for the BoE to restart its asset-purchasing programme has increased given growing signs that the economic recovery is lagging, as highlighted by data on Thursday showing a sharp fall in UK factory orders and a rise in public borrowing.
Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday as investors booked profits on the U.S. currency's rally the previous day, but gains were capped by concerns the global economic outlook is worsening, which kept the pound near a one-year low.
"We've ended up with a flight to safety, which hasn't been favourable to sterling, along with an increasing possibility of QE coming possibly earlier rather than later, and the economic data has been pretty grim too," said Jeremy Stretch, currency analyst at CIBC.
The continued volatility in the foreign exchange markets provides a greater case for keeping in close contact with your FCG account manager to put last week’s market movements into perspective, a typical transfer of £200K would have seen you receive $8000 less than at the end of the previous week.
Do you need to buy or sell US Dollars? Send us an enquiry now.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday – Business Climate Assessment and Economic Sentiment figures are released from Germany today, the EU’s largest economy. From the USA there are new home figures, which are seen as a barometer of the economy as a whole.
Tuesday – EU lending figures are released today, which investors watch as a sign of confidence in the economy. From the US we have Consumer Confidence figures which could affect GBP/USD rates.
Wednesday – The GFK survey from Germany is released today. This measures confidence in the EU’s largest economy, but is likely to be overshadowed by the continued EU debt crisis. We also have French GDP figures, showing any growth or lack of growth in the economy.
Thursday – From the UK today we have Money Supply data. From the EU there are business climate and consumer sentiment surveys. In the US there are various releases including Jobless Claims, Home Sales and GDP figures.
Friday – Today the UK sees the GFK survey which measures economic confidence. We also have GDP figures for the UK which is the most notable UK release of the week. EU unemployment figures are also released. Stateside we see Inflation Data and income figures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
In this week’s Report:
• GBP/USD falls to 1 year low
• Eurozone crisis continues
• Safe Haven currencies gaining strength
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
An all too familiar week for the Sterling Euro cross saw a high of 1.1526 and a low of 1.1373 as concerns about the Euro play off against a weak pound, currently governed by further talks of Quantitative Easing. Mediocre data releases continue to have less effect on a market currently driven heavily by investor movement and risk aversion.
Greece continues to play a leading role in Eurozone developments, despite its inferior percentage share of the Eurozone economy as a whole. With the French and Germans in particular heavily invested in the Greek recovery, European stocks tumbled early Friday on fears the region's banks would take more write downs on their Greek debt exposure.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos was quoted by two newspapers as saying “an orderly default with a 50 percent haircut for bondholders was one of three scenarios for resolving the country's fiscal woes”. In layman's terms, the prospect of Greece defaulting on further payments is still a very real possibility.
With this in mind, you would think the Euro would start to slacken off against the pound in the same way it is slowly being grappled into submission by the revitalised and strengthening Greenback… many in the know claim that the Euro is still overvalued by 15% and be that as it may, the single currency is showing to be 6% stronger against the pound than it was this time last year…
Talking up of the Euro by the ECB and an unfounded in-house optimism seems to keep the Euro fighting against the pound for the time being. Forecasts are changing from week to week as to where we will be heading in terms of sterling strength over the next few months as the market shows signs of potentially making a break one way or the other .
Do you need to buy or sell Euros? Send us an enquiry now.
Sterling vs. US Dollar;
The start of the week saw the GBP/USD trading around the 1.57 level (interbank). With the continued uncertainty in the Euro Zone and increased demand for the USD, GBP/USD rates kept on falling as the dollar strengthened against the pound. The end of the week saw the GBP/USD fall to a 12 month low of 1.5326 (interbank) not seen since September 2010.
One of the contributing factors to the USD’s recent surge was gold shedding 8% over the past two weeks, with about a quarter of that decline coming on Monday. Investors poured into the dollar even though the Federal Reserve has all but promised to keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least mid-2013. This further shows how investors are moving towards the safe haven of the USD.
In order for the USA to increase borrowing and accelerate spending to boost the economy, ‘Operation Twist’ was implemented and involved the Federal Reserve purchasing $400 billion worth of long-term bonds whilst selling an equal amount of shorter-dated securities. Through this decision it seems as if the world’s most powerful central bank will not be restarting Quantitative Easing (QE) whilst the Bank of England is currently mulling over whether to fire up the printing presses.
With the Bank of England (BoE) expected to move towards QE, and with the Federal Reserve not bothering to step into the markets, this pair fell hard as the USD gained value. A fresh round of asset purchasing by the BoE would be negative for the pound as such a programme requires authorities to boost supply by flooding the market with the currency.
Some in the market believe the need for the BoE to restart its asset-purchasing programme has increased given growing signs that the economic recovery is lagging, as highlighted by data on Thursday showing a sharp fall in UK factory orders and a rise in public borrowing.
Sterling rose against the dollar on Friday as investors booked profits on the U.S. currency's rally the previous day, but gains were capped by concerns the global economic outlook is worsening, which kept the pound near a one-year low.
"We've ended up with a flight to safety, which hasn't been favourable to sterling, along with an increasing possibility of QE coming possibly earlier rather than later, and the economic data has been pretty grim too," said Jeremy Stretch, currency analyst at CIBC.
The continued volatility in the foreign exchange markets provides a greater case for keeping in close contact with your FCG account manager to put last week’s market movements into perspective, a typical transfer of £200K would have seen you receive $8000 less than at the end of the previous week.
Do you need to buy or sell US Dollars? Send us an enquiry now.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday – Business Climate Assessment and Economic Sentiment figures are released from Germany today, the EU’s largest economy. From the USA there are new home figures, which are seen as a barometer of the economy as a whole.
Tuesday – EU lending figures are released today, which investors watch as a sign of confidence in the economy. From the US we have Consumer Confidence figures which could affect GBP/USD rates.
Wednesday – The GFK survey from Germany is released today. This measures confidence in the EU’s largest economy, but is likely to be overshadowed by the continued EU debt crisis. We also have French GDP figures, showing any growth or lack of growth in the economy.
Thursday – From the UK today we have Money Supply data. From the EU there are business climate and consumer sentiment surveys. In the US there are various releases including Jobless Claims, Home Sales and GDP figures.
Friday – Today the UK sees the GFK survey which measures economic confidence. We also have GDP figures for the UK which is the most notable UK release of the week. EU unemployment figures are also released. Stateside we see Inflation Data and income figures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Kamis, 22 September 2011
Why are Sterling/Euro & Dollar exchange rates falling?
Friday 23rd September 2011
Markets fall as FED and others warn on growth
Yesterday the Federal Reserve warned that the US economy faced significant downside risks. The news sparked panic in the markets, and was one of only a series of grim warnings about the global economy.
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said the economic situation was entering a "dangerous place". Earlier, the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, said the world's economy was "in a danger zone". The comments came after the Federal Reserve warned that the US economy faced "significant downside risks".
Also on Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that the eurozone crisis and the political divisions in the United States were the biggest threats to the global economy.
So what does all this mean for the currency markets?
It signals significant worries about the global economy. In times of uncertainty, generally perceived safer currencies get stronger, and risky currencies weaken. This is exactly what we saw yesterday, with the safe haven US Dollar gaining significant strength throughout the day. It fell to a 1 year low, which is over 10 cents down from the 2 year high we saw a matter of weeks ago.
What do the analysts say?
"There's just a mad scramble to own dollars today, standing in front of the dollar is like standing in front of a moving bus. People are looking at what the Fed did last night and saying there is no new money being made available," said Michael Derks, chief strategist at FX Pro.
"The BoE doesn't help sterling, additional QE looks baked in the cake over the next couple of months. The global demand for dollars shows absolutely no sign of slowing".
Summary
It's incredibly hard to know which way things will go, but what is certain is that the volatility is likely to continue, while there is no real sign the global economy is going to recover any time soon. This will weaken riskier currencies such as the Pound, so it could be that GBP/USD rates continue to drop.
Good morning. It was a very volatile day in the currency markets yesterday. Notably the GBP/USD exchange rate dropped to a 1 year low, after the Federal Reserve warned about significant downside to the U.S. economy and triggered broad risk aversion in financial markets.
As the Dollar is a safe haven currency, it strengthened. The 1 year low is even more remarkable when you consider just a few weeks ago it was near a 2 year high! This is how rates fared throughout trading yesterday:
As the Dollar is a safe haven currency, it strengthened. The 1 year low is even more remarkable when you consider just a few weeks ago it was near a 2 year high! This is how rates fared throughout trading yesterday:
Markets fall as FED and others warn on growth
Yesterday the Federal Reserve warned that the US economy faced significant downside risks. The news sparked panic in the markets, and was one of only a series of grim warnings about the global economy.
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said the economic situation was entering a "dangerous place". Earlier, the president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, said the world's economy was "in a danger zone". The comments came after the Federal Reserve warned that the US economy faced "significant downside risks".
Also on Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that the eurozone crisis and the political divisions in the United States were the biggest threats to the global economy.
So what does all this mean for the currency markets?
It signals significant worries about the global economy. In times of uncertainty, generally perceived safer currencies get stronger, and risky currencies weaken. This is exactly what we saw yesterday, with the safe haven US Dollar gaining significant strength throughout the day. It fell to a 1 year low, which is over 10 cents down from the 2 year high we saw a matter of weeks ago.
Riskier currencies including Sterling didn't fare as well. The Pound fell against other currencies, as investors fled from risk and rushed to move funds to Dollars. This is why we saw a general drop in most major GBP exchange rates throughout trading yesterday.
What do the analysts say?
"There's just a mad scramble to own dollars today, standing in front of the dollar is like standing in front of a moving bus. People are looking at what the Fed did last night and saying there is no new money being made available," said Michael Derks, chief strategist at FX Pro.
"The BoE doesn't help sterling, additional QE looks baked in the cake over the next couple of months. The global demand for dollars shows absolutely no sign of slowing".
Summary
It's incredibly hard to know which way things will go, but what is certain is that the volatility is likely to continue, while there is no real sign the global economy is going to recover any time soon. This will weaken riskier currencies such as the Pound, so it could be that GBP/USD rates continue to drop.
Against the Euro it's harder to call, as falls in the rate have been largely limited due to the ongoing EU debt crisis keeping the Euro weak and propping up GBP/EUR rates somewhat. Without these debt issues, it's likely Pound vs Euro rates would be significantly lower than they are at the moment.
If you have currency to buy or sell in the coming months, the best course of action is to contact us for a free consultation on your particular requirements. I can then explain the different options available to meet your needs, and ensure you don't get caught out by adverse exchange rate movements, and achieve the best exchange rate possible.
On Monday we'll have a detailed look at this weeks movements in the currency markets, particularly against the Euro and US Dollar.
Have a great weekend.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Sterling falls after BoE minutes signal QE
Thursday 22nd September 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell to a new 8 month low against the US Dollar, fell below the €1.14 level vs the Euro and hit a 2 and a half year low versus the yen yesterday. This was after Bank of England minutes showed an increasing chance the central bank will soon opt for more monetary easing, as we predicted in yesterdays post. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1416
• GBP/USD 1.5465
• GBP/AUD 1.5485
• GBP/NZD 1.9479
• GBP/CHF 1.4019
• GBP/CAD 1.5700
• GBP/ZAR 12.586
• GBP/JPY 118.33
• GBP/DKK 8.4977
• GBP/NOK 8.9457
• EUR/USD 1.3548
Sterling falls on Bank of England (BoE) minutes
Yesterday the BoE released the minutes to the recent decision to hold interest rates, and hold off on further Quantitative Easing. Adam Posen voted for an extra 50 billion pounds in asset purchases but the minutes showed most members felt it was increasingly likely more asset purchases would be warranted at some point. As a result, Sterling fell across the board during trading yesterday.
Some members also felt the recent weakness in the economy was sufficient to justify more quantitative easing "at a subsequent meeting", raising the prospect that the BoE could start pumping money into the economy in October.
QE is widely seen to be negative for the pound as it would flood the market with the UK currency, cutting demand while increasing the BoE's balance sheet. For this reason Sterling has dropped significantly against other currencies.
If you are selling currency for Sterling, it's looking very good at the moment. With the Pound so weak it's a good time to convert currency back into Pounds. However if the Euro debt crisis continues to cause worries, rates could start to recover.
If you have currency to convert to Sterling, contact me today to discuss the options we have available to help you achieve the best exchange rates possible.
Today's Data
Canadian Retail Sales are released at lunchtime, followed by Jobless numbers from the USA. There are no releases from the EU or UK today.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling fell to a new 8 month low against the US Dollar, fell below the €1.14 level vs the Euro and hit a 2 and a half year low versus the yen yesterday. This was after Bank of England minutes showed an increasing chance the central bank will soon opt for more monetary easing, as we predicted in yesterdays post. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1416
• GBP/USD 1.5465
• GBP/AUD 1.5485
• GBP/NZD 1.9479
• GBP/CHF 1.4019
• GBP/CAD 1.5700
• GBP/ZAR 12.586
• GBP/JPY 118.33
• GBP/DKK 8.4977
• GBP/NOK 8.9457
• EUR/USD 1.3548
Sterling falls on Bank of England (BoE) minutes
Yesterday the BoE released the minutes to the recent decision to hold interest rates, and hold off on further Quantitative Easing. Adam Posen voted for an extra 50 billion pounds in asset purchases but the minutes showed most members felt it was increasingly likely more asset purchases would be warranted at some point. As a result, Sterling fell across the board during trading yesterday.
Some members also felt the recent weakness in the economy was sufficient to justify more quantitative easing "at a subsequent meeting", raising the prospect that the BoE could start pumping money into the economy in October.
QE is widely seen to be negative for the pound as it would flood the market with the UK currency, cutting demand while increasing the BoE's balance sheet. For this reason Sterling has dropped significantly against other currencies.
If you are selling currency for Sterling, it's looking very good at the moment. With the Pound so weak it's a good time to convert currency back into Pounds. However if the Euro debt crisis continues to cause worries, rates could start to recover.
If you have currency to convert to Sterling, contact me today to discuss the options we have available to help you achieve the best exchange rates possible.
Today's Data
Canadian Retail Sales are released at lunchtime, followed by Jobless numbers from the USA. There are no releases from the EU or UK today.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Rabu, 21 September 2011
Sterling at risk of fall due to Quantitative Easing
Wednesday 21st September 2011
Good morning. Sterling remains near 8 month lows vs the US Dollar, but was up slightly against the Euro following the downgrade of Italy's credit rating. More losses for the Pound are expected today if the Bank of England (BoE) minutes show Quantitative Easing (QE) is discussed. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1480
• GBP/USD 1.5691
• GBP/AUD 1.5299
• GBP/NZD 1.9095
• GBP/CHF 1.4016
• GBP/CAD 1.5613
• GBP/ZAR 12.204
• GBP/JPY 119.72
• GBP/DKK 8.5485
• GBP/NOK 8.8934
• EUR/USD 1.3665
Sterling at risk of a drop due to Quantitative Easing
At 09:30am this morning we will see the minutes to the recent Bank of England minutes. We already know that interest rates were left on hold. What we will be looking for is any sign QE was discussed at the meeting. If it was, then this will weaken the Pound as it will show that QE is the only method the BoE has to try and stimulate the economy. Quantitative Easing is explained here on the Bank of England site.
Sterling has been performing quite well against the Euro of late, due to the fact its the best of a bad bunch of currencies. We expect continued pressure on the Pound in the coming days and weeks, and we could well see exchange rates fall.
Gloomy data and surveys in recent weeks have stoked fears about the economic outlook, while MPC members Martin Weale and Charles Bean said in interviews last week that the risks had grown recently.
Currency Exchange 'too costly'
There is an interesting article on the BBC site this morning, about how currency exchange for holiday cash it too expensive. We don't deal in cash at all, only bank to bank transfers, however it does show that using the Bank to convert your currency is often a very expensive way of doing it. The same applies when transferring larger sums, and that's where we come in. Our rates are up to 5% better than the banks can offer, and on a large transfer this can represent a significant saving.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling remains near 8 month lows vs the US Dollar, but was up slightly against the Euro following the downgrade of Italy's credit rating. More losses for the Pound are expected today if the Bank of England (BoE) minutes show Quantitative Easing (QE) is discussed. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1480
• GBP/USD 1.5691
• GBP/AUD 1.5299
• GBP/NZD 1.9095
• GBP/CHF 1.4016
• GBP/CAD 1.5613
• GBP/ZAR 12.204
• GBP/JPY 119.72
• GBP/DKK 8.5485
• GBP/NOK 8.8934
• EUR/USD 1.3665
Sterling at risk of a drop due to Quantitative Easing
At 09:30am this morning we will see the minutes to the recent Bank of England minutes. We already know that interest rates were left on hold. What we will be looking for is any sign QE was discussed at the meeting. If it was, then this will weaken the Pound as it will show that QE is the only method the BoE has to try and stimulate the economy. Quantitative Easing is explained here on the Bank of England site.
Sterling has been performing quite well against the Euro of late, due to the fact its the best of a bad bunch of currencies. We expect continued pressure on the Pound in the coming days and weeks, and we could well see exchange rates fall.
Gloomy data and surveys in recent weeks have stoked fears about the economic outlook, while MPC members Martin Weale and Charles Bean said in interviews last week that the risks had grown recently.
Currency Exchange 'too costly'
There is an interesting article on the BBC site this morning, about how currency exchange for holiday cash it too expensive. We don't deal in cash at all, only bank to bank transfers, however it does show that using the Bank to convert your currency is often a very expensive way of doing it. The same applies when transferring larger sums, and that's where we come in. Our rates are up to 5% better than the banks can offer, and on a large transfer this can represent a significant saving.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Senin, 19 September 2011
Sterling falls against Euro & USD on QE concerns
Tuesday 20th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell against both the Euro and US Dollar yesterday. This is due to uncertainty in Europe pushing investors back to the safe haven US Dollar. GBP/EUR rates fell as there are concerns there may be mention of Quantitative Easing by the Bank of England this week. This is how rates fared for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD during trading yesterday:
Pound falls to 8 month low vs US Dollar
Sterling hit a new 8 month low against the dollar yesterday, tracking losses in the euro which fell as concerns over policymakers' lack of progress on the euro zone debt crisis fuelled demand for the relative safe haven of the greenback. The increased demand for the USD strengthened it, making it more expensive and pushing GBP/USD rates down.
"There is increasing uncertainty over where the policy response in the euro zone crisis is going to come from, which means safety first as people continue to sell equities and the dollar is king," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING.
It's a great time to convert USD to Sterling, so if you are currently holding dollars and need to convert it, send us an enquiry now to find our more about our rates.
Pound vs Euro rates drop on QE concerns
Speculation that Bank of England minutes which will be released this Wednesday will indicate policymakers are considering further quantitative easing also weighed on the pound. Further QE measures would flood the market with the UK currency and reduce demand. This has caused Sterling to fall as investors position themselves for such a move.
Investors have been pricing in such a move from the BoE as recent comments from policymakers appear to signal they are increasingly ready to vote for further monetary stimulus to boost lacklustre UK economic growth. It's due to these reasons exchange rates fell slightly through trading yesterday.
Today's Data
In the EU, we see lots of figures from Germany including inflation data, and German and EU economic sentiment surveys. In the US we have an interest rate decision & the FOMC minutes. We also see RBA minutes which could affect GBP/AUD rates. There is no data of note from the UK today.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling fell against both the Euro and US Dollar yesterday. This is due to uncertainty in Europe pushing investors back to the safe haven US Dollar. GBP/EUR rates fell as there are concerns there may be mention of Quantitative Easing by the Bank of England this week. This is how rates fared for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD during trading yesterday:
Pound falls to 8 month low vs US Dollar
Sterling hit a new 8 month low against the dollar yesterday, tracking losses in the euro which fell as concerns over policymakers' lack of progress on the euro zone debt crisis fuelled demand for the relative safe haven of the greenback. The increased demand for the USD strengthened it, making it more expensive and pushing GBP/USD rates down.
"There is increasing uncertainty over where the policy response in the euro zone crisis is going to come from, which means safety first as people continue to sell equities and the dollar is king," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING.
It's a great time to convert USD to Sterling, so if you are currently holding dollars and need to convert it, send us an enquiry now to find our more about our rates.
Pound vs Euro rates drop on QE concerns
Speculation that Bank of England minutes which will be released this Wednesday will indicate policymakers are considering further quantitative easing also weighed on the pound. Further QE measures would flood the market with the UK currency and reduce demand. This has caused Sterling to fall as investors position themselves for such a move.
Investors have been pricing in such a move from the BoE as recent comments from policymakers appear to signal they are increasingly ready to vote for further monetary stimulus to boost lacklustre UK economic growth. It's due to these reasons exchange rates fell slightly through trading yesterday.
Today's Data
In the EU, we see lots of figures from Germany including inflation data, and German and EU economic sentiment surveys. In the US we have an interest rate decision & the FOMC minutes. We also see RBA minutes which could affect GBP/AUD rates. There is no data of note from the UK today.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Minggu, 18 September 2011
Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD round-up, and weekly data
Monday 19th September 2011
Good morning. It's Monday morning, so let's take stock of movements in GBP/EUR and GBP/USD over the last weeks trading, in our Monday weekly round-up. In this week’s Report:• Central Banks in Co-Coordinated move
• GBP/EUR falls from 6 month high
• GBP/USD remains near 8 month low
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
Monday morning saw the GBP/EUR reach a six month high of 1.1720 (interbank). As the week progressed, trading rates returned to a more familiar level of around 1.14+ as we have seen over the last couple of weeks.
Speculation of the possible downgrade of French banks at the beginning of the week saw the rates increase. This was shown when the Credit Rating agency Moody’s downgraded two French banks after reviewing their exposure to Greek debt. Credit Agricole was cut from Aa1 to Aa2 and Societe Generale from Aa2 to Aa3. A third bank, BNP Paribas, is being kept on review for a possible downgrade.
You would assume that this news would weaken the Euro, but as we are so closely tied to the single currency, it has seen the GBP get caught up in the problems.
Confidence in the Eurozone was further shaken by the resignation of Jurgen Stark the chief economist of the European Central Bank. Stark resigned over his opposition to the ECB's bond-buying program, representing turmoil in the ECB with one of their key members walking out.
As the week progressed five of the World’s central banks announced a move to help resolve the Eurozone financial situation. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank will provide additional lending, and follows the fears about the exposure of banks in the EU and the potential collapse of the Eurozone during the debt crisis.
As the week progressed five of the World’s central banks announced a move to help resolve the Eurozone financial situation. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank will provide additional lending, and follows the fears about the exposure of banks in the EU and the potential collapse of the Eurozone during the debt crisis.
The leaders of France and Germany met late in the week and in put some confidence back into the Euro stating that Greece is an "integral" part of the Eurozone. Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy said in a joint statement: "Putting into place commitments of the (bailout) programme is essential for the Greek economy to return to a path of lasting and balanced growth."
This strengthened the Euro and pushed rates back down from the highs we saw at the beginning of the week.
This strengthened the Euro and pushed rates back down from the highs we saw at the beginning of the week.
As we have seen over the last few weeks, the continued volatility in the foreign exchange markets have provided huge swings in the exchange rate. With all the economic uncertainties across the world, exchange rates are likely to remain extremely choppy over the next few weeks, therefore if you are buying or selling Euro’s in the next 6 months, contact us today for a free consultation.
Do you need to buy or sell Euros? Send us an enquiry now.
Do you need to buy or sell Euros? Send us an enquiry now.
Sterling vs. US Dollar;
As the chart belows clearly shows, rates to buy US Dollars have been in steep decline over the last month. This reversed slightly last week, when we saw the world’s main central banks announce joint action to provide Dollar liquidity, aimed at securing the funding needs of banks struggling to meet them in the market.
Sterling slipped against the Dollar on Friday to trade within sight of 8 month lows, hit by signs that Bank of England officials were edging closer to more UK monetary stimulus, as investors watched events in the Eurozone closely. "The QE discussion is gaining momentum in the UK and is likely to keep GBP under pressure," said Morgan Stanley analysts in a note.
Sterling was down on Thursday in reaction to the co-ordinated central bank announcement. Markets expect interest rates to remain around historic lows at least until the end of 2012, with some further easing of policy also being factored in.
Manufacturing data from the US yet again disappointed to the downside with Empire state manufacturing and the Philly fed both posting negative readings in August. The data was virtually ignored by equity markets but with unemployment remaining persistently high in the US, traders cannot be too confident of a global recovery getting back on track. Not a single job was created in August and this is the first time that has happened since 1945.
Manufacturing data from the US yet again disappointed to the downside with Empire state manufacturing and the Philly fed both posting negative readings in August. The data was virtually ignored by equity markets but with unemployment remaining persistently high in the US, traders cannot be too confident of a global recovery getting back on track. Not a single job was created in August and this is the first time that has happened since 1945.
A story of note from last week revealed that more than £4 billion was wiped off UBS shares as losses of $2 billion were uncovered stemming from trades put on by a trader in their London office. After Nick Leeson and Jerôme Kerviel, it seems that another ‘rogue’ trader is about to enter the banking history books. This time it’s the turn of the Nottingham University educated, Kweku Adoboli.
The bank has not announced where the losses were made, but there is speculation that it could have stemmed from trades in the Swiss Franc which moved over 10 cents in a matter of minutes after the SNB announced it was pegging the currency to the Euro. UBS profits will be all but wiped out in Q3 but as the revelation was more company specific, other financial stocks still performed well.
Do you need to buy or sell US Dollars? Send us an enquiry now.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday – A very quiet start to the week, with only Nationwide House Prices for the UK. There is also some housing data from the US later in the afternoon.
Tuesday – Again quiet for the UK, with no data of note. In the EU, we see lots of figures from Germany including inflation data, and German and EU economic sentiment surveys. In the US we have an interest rate decision & the FOMC minutes. We also see RBA minutes which could affect GBP/AUD rates.
Wednesday – Public sector borrowing is released today for the UK. This shows the deficit and can affect the value of the Pound. More importantly, we see the BoE minutes to the recent interest rate decision. Watch carefully for any mention of Quantitative Easing being discussed. If so, it could knock the pound significantly. Nothing from the EU today, but from the US later in the day we see various housing figures.
Thursday – Canadian Retail Sales are released at lunchtime, followed by Jobless numbers from the USA. There are no releases from the EU or UK today.
Friday – There is no data of note today.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Jumat, 16 September 2011
Sterling rises on Central Bank move
Friday 16th September 2011
Good morning. Yesterday evening the worlds central banks have announced a co-ordinated move to try to help the financial system. The central banks are to provide commercial banks with three additional tranches of loans to help ease funding pressures. The news have calmed the markets, and riskier currencies such as the Pound have benefited. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1427
• GBP/USD 1.5761
• GBP/AUD 1.5266
• GBP/NZD 1.9110
• GBP/CHF 1.3780
• GBP/CAD 1.5530
• GBP/ZAR 11.683
• GBP/JPY 120.96
• GBP/DKK 8.5090
• GBP/NOK 8.8291
• EUR/USD 1.3791
Central Banks in co-ordinated move
The move by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank will provide additional lending, and follows fears about the exposure of banks in the EU to eurozone sovereign debt. The debt problems had made the banks reluctant to lend and this in turn has created funding problems.
US and EU banks have been moving funds out of Europe recently because of these exposure fears, and this has been putting further pressure on the banking system. The new loans are being issued in dollars, because European banks can already access additional euro funds from the European Central Bank.
The news has been welcomed by the markets, with riskier currencies such as Sterling benefiting, and exchange rates rising slightly from the lows we have seen earlier this week. But while analysts have welcomed the move, they have also warned that more will still have to be done to tackle the underlying problem of high levels of eurozone sovereign debt.
Today's Data
A quiet end to the week. Some Net flow data from the US and consumer sentiment survey also from the US are the only releases of note.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Yesterday evening the worlds central banks have announced a co-ordinated move to try to help the financial system. The central banks are to provide commercial banks with three additional tranches of loans to help ease funding pressures. The news have calmed the markets, and riskier currencies such as the Pound have benefited. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1427
• GBP/USD 1.5761
• GBP/AUD 1.5266
• GBP/NZD 1.9110
• GBP/CHF 1.3780
• GBP/CAD 1.5530
• GBP/ZAR 11.683
• GBP/JPY 120.96
• GBP/DKK 8.5090
• GBP/NOK 8.8291
• EUR/USD 1.3791
Central Banks in co-ordinated move
The move by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank will provide additional lending, and follows fears about the exposure of banks in the EU to eurozone sovereign debt. The debt problems had made the banks reluctant to lend and this in turn has created funding problems.
US and EU banks have been moving funds out of Europe recently because of these exposure fears, and this has been putting further pressure on the banking system. The new loans are being issued in dollars, because European banks can already access additional euro funds from the European Central Bank.
The news has been welcomed by the markets, with riskier currencies such as Sterling benefiting, and exchange rates rising slightly from the lows we have seen earlier this week. But while analysts have welcomed the move, they have also warned that more will still have to be done to tackle the underlying problem of high levels of eurozone sovereign debt.
Today's Data
A quiet end to the week. Some Net flow data from the US and consumer sentiment survey also from the US are the only releases of note.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Kamis, 15 September 2011
Pound vs Euro Outlook Forecast September 2011
Thursday 15th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell again yesterday against both the Euro and US Dollar, on concerns over the impact of the euro zone's debt crisis on UK economic growth and British. This could force the Bank of England into more Quantitative Easing, and it's this that has pushed the Pound down. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1458
• GBP/USD 1.5750
• GBP/AUD 1.5396
• GBP/NZD 1.9312
• GBP/CHF 1.3808
• GBP/CAD 1.5626
• GBP/ZAR 11.682
• GBP/JPY 120.76
• GBP/DKK 8.5314
• GBP/NOK 8.9444
• EUR/USD 1.3743
Sterling falls to fresh 8 month lows vs US Dollar
Continuing worries over the euro zone's debt problems kept investors wary of riskier currencies such as the Pound, and the Dollar has benefited as it's perceived as a safe haven currency. This has caused significant strength for the USD, and as a result rates have dropped to an 8 month low in the $1.57's. With the Swiss Franc no longer as attractive as it was due to the SNB intervention, while there is continued turmoil we expect continued strength for the Dollar.
UK exposure to Eurozone pushes GBP/EUR lower
The EU debt crisis is placing its banking sector under severe strain. Rating agency Moody's cut the credit ratings of France's Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale yesterday. This affects the UK because of our banks exposure to euro zone banks. While you would assume the bad news for the EU would weaken the Euro, as we are so closely tied to them it has also pulled the Pound down vs the Euro.
"The UK banking sector is exposed to the euro zone crisis, particularly to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain," said Chris Turner, head of fx strategy at ING.
UK economic figures continue to disappoint
We continue to see poor data from the UK, with unemployment data yesterday showing it's biggest rise in 2 years. Sterling's recent losses have been compounded by a run of poor economic data, which many analysts believe could force the BoE into pumping more money and stimulate growth. More QE would weaken the Pound further, and next Wednesday we will see the Bank of England minutes to see if this option was discussed. It's this fear of further QE that is likely to push the Pound lower in the coming weeks.
Today's Data
From the US today we have further inflationary numbers, and Industrial Production figures. Other than that all data today is from Switzerland; an interest rate decision, Industrial Production figures, and inflation data. Given the effect the Swiss had on the markets last week, we will be keeping a close eye on these numbers.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling fell again yesterday against both the Euro and US Dollar, on concerns over the impact of the euro zone's debt crisis on UK economic growth and British. This could force the Bank of England into more Quantitative Easing, and it's this that has pushed the Pound down. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1458
• GBP/USD 1.5750
• GBP/AUD 1.5396
• GBP/NZD 1.9312
• GBP/CHF 1.3808
• GBP/CAD 1.5626
• GBP/ZAR 11.682
• GBP/JPY 120.76
• GBP/DKK 8.5314
• GBP/NOK 8.9444
• EUR/USD 1.3743
Sterling falls to fresh 8 month lows vs US Dollar
Continuing worries over the euro zone's debt problems kept investors wary of riskier currencies such as the Pound, and the Dollar has benefited as it's perceived as a safe haven currency. This has caused significant strength for the USD, and as a result rates have dropped to an 8 month low in the $1.57's. With the Swiss Franc no longer as attractive as it was due to the SNB intervention, while there is continued turmoil we expect continued strength for the Dollar.
UK exposure to Eurozone pushes GBP/EUR lower
The EU debt crisis is placing its banking sector under severe strain. Rating agency Moody's cut the credit ratings of France's Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale yesterday. This affects the UK because of our banks exposure to euro zone banks. While you would assume the bad news for the EU would weaken the Euro, as we are so closely tied to them it has also pulled the Pound down vs the Euro.
"The UK banking sector is exposed to the euro zone crisis, particularly to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain," said Chris Turner, head of fx strategy at ING.
UK economic figures continue to disappoint
We continue to see poor data from the UK, with unemployment data yesterday showing it's biggest rise in 2 years. Sterling's recent losses have been compounded by a run of poor economic data, which many analysts believe could force the BoE into pumping more money and stimulate growth. More QE would weaken the Pound further, and next Wednesday we will see the Bank of England minutes to see if this option was discussed. It's this fear of further QE that is likely to push the Pound lower in the coming weeks.
Today's Data
From the US today we have further inflationary numbers, and Industrial Production figures. Other than that all data today is from Switzerland; an interest rate decision, Industrial Production figures, and inflation data. Given the effect the Swiss had on the markets last week, we will be keeping a close eye on these numbers.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Rabu, 14 September 2011
Sterling falls further on inflation data & BoE comments
Wednesday 14th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling slipped further against the US Dollar and Euro yesterday, on concerns the UK banks may be exposed to EU debt. Inflation data and BoE comments also weakened Sterling against other currencies, and at 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1524
• GBP/USD 1.5715
• GBP/AUD 1.5367
• GBP/NZD 1.9194
• GBP/CHF 1.3870
• GBP/CAD 1.5579
• GBP/ZAR 11.606
• GBP/JPY 120.71
• GBP/DKK 8.5833
• GBP/NOK 8.9061
• EUR/USD 1.3627
Sterling falls on inflation data and BoE comments
Inflation data released yesterday failed to squash speculation the Bank of England may opt for more Quantitative Easing. Also weakening Sterling against other currencies were comments from BoE policymaker Adam Posen, who said the central bank should immediately add more monetary stimulus.
More QE would weaken the Pound as it signals worries about how to stimulate growth in the economy. Other data released yesterday showed an unexpected deterioration in the UK's trade deficit to its widest in nearly a year, which again highlights the fragile state of the slow economic recovery.
We also saw further falls against the Euro, as the single currency gained strength on a report that France and Germany would issue a joint statement about Greece.
Today's Data
Unemployment figures are released from the UK today. There has been a run of poor UK data of late and this could compound Sterling weakness. From the Eurozone, we have industrial production figures. Stateside we will see Retail Sales, and various inflationary measures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling slipped further against the US Dollar and Euro yesterday, on concerns the UK banks may be exposed to EU debt. Inflation data and BoE comments also weakened Sterling against other currencies, and at 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1524
• GBP/USD 1.5715
• GBP/AUD 1.5367
• GBP/NZD 1.9194
• GBP/CHF 1.3870
• GBP/CAD 1.5579
• GBP/ZAR 11.606
• GBP/JPY 120.71
• GBP/DKK 8.5833
• GBP/NOK 8.9061
• EUR/USD 1.3627
Sterling falls on inflation data and BoE comments
Inflation data released yesterday failed to squash speculation the Bank of England may opt for more Quantitative Easing. Also weakening Sterling against other currencies were comments from BoE policymaker Adam Posen, who said the central bank should immediately add more monetary stimulus.
More QE would weaken the Pound as it signals worries about how to stimulate growth in the economy. Other data released yesterday showed an unexpected deterioration in the UK's trade deficit to its widest in nearly a year, which again highlights the fragile state of the slow economic recovery.
We also saw further falls against the Euro, as the single currency gained strength on a report that France and Germany would issue a joint statement about Greece.
Today's Data
Unemployment figures are released from the UK today. There has been a run of poor UK data of late and this could compound Sterling weakness. From the Eurozone, we have industrial production figures. Stateside we will see Retail Sales, and various inflationary measures.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Selasa, 13 September 2011
Pound falls vs Euro and to 8 month low vs USD
Tuesday 13th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell to a near 8 month low against the US Dollar yesterday, as worries about the euro zone debt crisis spreading boosted demand for the USD. The Pound also fell slightly against the Euro, but remains just above €1.16. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1611
• GBP/USD 1.5819
• GBP/AUD 1.5306
• GBP/NZD 1.9222
• GBP/CHF 1.3983
• GBP/CAD 1.5717
• GBP/ZAR 11.679
• GBP/JPY 121.69
• GBP/DKK 8.6458
• GBP/NOK 8.9840
• EUR/USD 1.3621
Sterling falls against Euro and to 8 month low vs US Dollar
Worries about the Eurozone debt crisis spreading has meant investors moving funds to the safe haven US Dollar. This has strengthened the greenback, pushing GBP/USD rates down to near the lowest in 8 months.
Sterling also fell slightly vs the Euro, after last weeks surge against the single currency. It's due to worries the UK economy is facing contraction, and this is keeping the Pound in check. Also keeping the pound under pressure versus the dollar and other currencies was the prospect that the Bank of England may consider the possibility of injecting more stimulus to the economy as it struggles to recover.
The pound is likely to fall if investors continue to speculate that the BoE may be moving closer to buying more UK assets from the market. The central bank kept policy unchanged last week. Most market players do expect further QE however, and this is likely to limit any gains for the Pound.
Today's Data
UK data today comprises Retail Price Index, Trade Balance figures, and the Consumer Price Index. All of these are significant releases, and any negative numbers could easily reverse the significant GBP/EUR gains we saw last week.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling fell to a near 8 month low against the US Dollar yesterday, as worries about the euro zone debt crisis spreading boosted demand for the USD. The Pound also fell slightly against the Euro, but remains just above €1.16. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1611
• GBP/USD 1.5819
• GBP/AUD 1.5306
• GBP/NZD 1.9222
• GBP/CHF 1.3983
• GBP/CAD 1.5717
• GBP/ZAR 11.679
• GBP/JPY 121.69
• GBP/DKK 8.6458
• GBP/NOK 8.9840
• EUR/USD 1.3621
Sterling falls against Euro and to 8 month low vs US Dollar
Worries about the Eurozone debt crisis spreading has meant investors moving funds to the safe haven US Dollar. This has strengthened the greenback, pushing GBP/USD rates down to near the lowest in 8 months.
Sterling also fell slightly vs the Euro, after last weeks surge against the single currency. It's due to worries the UK economy is facing contraction, and this is keeping the Pound in check. Also keeping the pound under pressure versus the dollar and other currencies was the prospect that the Bank of England may consider the possibility of injecting more stimulus to the economy as it struggles to recover.
The pound is likely to fall if investors continue to speculate that the BoE may be moving closer to buying more UK assets from the market. The central bank kept policy unchanged last week. Most market players do expect further QE however, and this is likely to limit any gains for the Pound.
Today's Data
UK data today comprises Retail Price Index, Trade Balance figures, and the Consumer Price Index. All of these are significant releases, and any negative numbers could easily reverse the significant GBP/EUR gains we saw last week.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Senin, 12 September 2011
Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD, plus weekly market data
Monday 12th September 2011
Good morning. As always on a Monday morning, today we'll take stock of last weeks movements in Sterling vs Euro, Sterling vs US Dollar, and the weeks data that may affect exchange rates this week.
This week we saw the GBP/USD trade around the $1.59 level, it’s weakest since July 12th.This comes on the back of a rise against the Euro. Traders said losses accelerated after stop loss orders were triggered due to the sudden fall. There were reports the rate may reduce even further, bringing Julys low of $1.5781 into view.
It is the latest attempt by the central bank to weaken its currency, which has been at export-damaging record highs. The SNB has previously said that it would increase available deposits to commercial banks, as well as cut interest rates.
Another factor which saw the Dollar gain ground against the pound was US President Barack Obamas’ $450bn (£282bn) package of tax cuts and spending plans aimed at creating jobs and bolstering the economy. He wants to fund huge construction projects, schools and services, while giving tax cuts to workers and small businesses to boost recruitment.
This news also bolstered the US Dollar, compounding its strength as a safe haven currency. This went further to pushing GBP/USD rates lower, hitting a 2 month low on Friday, despite rates to buy Euros nudging the best they have been in nearly 6 months.
To put last week’s market movements into perspective, a typical transfer of £200K would have seen you receive $4800 less than at the end of the previous week.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday – There is no data of note today, other than Trade Balance figures from Australia. Of course with such volatility in the markets, general demand or lack thereof will likely drive exchange rates today.
Tuesday – UK data today comprises Retail Price Index, Trade Balance figures, and the Consumer Price Index. All of these are significant releases, and any negative numbers could easily reverse the significant GBP/EUR gains we saw last week.
Wednesday – Unemployment figures are released from the UK today. There has been a run of poor UK data of late and this could compound Sterling weakness. From the Eurozone, we have industrial production figures. Stateside we will see Retail Sales, and various inflationary measures.
Thursday – From the US today we have further inflationary numbers, and Industrial Production figures. Other than that all data today is from Switzerland; an interest rate decision, Industrial Production figures, and inflation data. Given the effect the Swiss had on the markets last week, we will be keeping a close eye on these numbers.
Friday – A quiet end to the week. Some Net flow data from the US and consumer sentiment survey also from the US are the only releases of note.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. As always on a Monday morning, today we'll take stock of last weeks movements in Sterling vs Euro, Sterling vs US Dollar, and the weeks data that may affect exchange rates this week.
In this week’s Report:
• Pound hits near 6 month high vs Euro
• Sterling down at 2 month low vs US Dollar
• Swiss National Bank peg CHF against Euro
• Most volatile week in currency markets for some time
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
After a relatively slow start to the week, ECB comments on Thursday saw the Pound gain heavily against the Euro, ending the week very near a 6 month high. The Pound made a small advance against the Euro at the start of the week despite PMI services index for August falling from 51.1 to 50.4; the sharpest slowdown since 2001.
• Pound hits near 6 month high vs Euro
• Sterling down at 2 month low vs US Dollar
• Swiss National Bank peg CHF against Euro
• Most volatile week in currency markets for some time
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
After a relatively slow start to the week, ECB comments on Thursday saw the Pound gain heavily against the Euro, ending the week very near a 6 month high. The Pound made a small advance against the Euro at the start of the week despite PMI services index for August falling from 51.1 to 50.4; the sharpest slowdown since 2001.
Sterling saw a day of disappointing trading against the Euro on Tuesday. The GBP/EUR exchange rate fell sharply in early-morning trading, ending the day lower at 1.1393. Wednesday saw GBP continue with more losses against the Euro. The Pound not helped by overall disappointing economic figures, showing that industrial production and manufacturing in the UK continued to fall annually; at an advanced pace. There was a small glimmer of positive news with July’s figures for manufacturing production showing an increase in the monthly level, from -0.4% to +0.1%, but the annual level slid once again from 2.1% to 1.9%, enhancing the dire state of the UK’s industrial sector.
The Pound made a sharp reversal in the foreign exchange market on Thursday, despite the Bank of England keeping the interest rate at its record low. Sterling made impressive gains against the Euro, rocketing up from the morning’s open at 1.1322 to end the day at 1.1487. The Pound’s gains against the Euro came after less than impressive German trade balance figures were released. The Euro was further weakened after the president of the European Central Bank highlighted the downside risks to economic growth, with the market now expecting the central bank to make rate-cuts by the end of the year.
The GBP/EUR rate spiralled on Friday after Thursday saw the ECB cut eurozone growth forecasts and hinting at loosening monetary policy. The pound ended the day nigh on a 6 month high, breaking through the €1.16 level. Over the weekend we broke €1.17, however we have already seen rates start to decline by around 1 point so far today.
The Pound made a sharp reversal in the foreign exchange market on Thursday, despite the Bank of England keeping the interest rate at its record low. Sterling made impressive gains against the Euro, rocketing up from the morning’s open at 1.1322 to end the day at 1.1487. The Pound’s gains against the Euro came after less than impressive German trade balance figures were released. The Euro was further weakened after the president of the European Central Bank highlighted the downside risks to economic growth, with the market now expecting the central bank to make rate-cuts by the end of the year.
The GBP/EUR rate spiralled on Friday after Thursday saw the ECB cut eurozone growth forecasts and hinting at loosening monetary policy. The pound ended the day nigh on a 6 month high, breaking through the €1.16 level. Over the weekend we broke €1.17, however we have already seen rates start to decline by around 1 point so far today.
This week we saw the GBP/USD trade around the $1.59 level, it’s weakest since July 12th.This comes on the back of a rise against the Euro. Traders said losses accelerated after stop loss orders were triggered due to the sudden fall. There were reports the rate may reduce even further, bringing Julys low of $1.5781 into view.
The USD Dollar and Gold are still seen as safe havens; even more so now the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs against the Euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy. The move had an immediate effect and triggered the GBP/USD rate to fall below $1.60.
It is the latest attempt by the central bank to weaken its currency, which has been at export-damaging record highs. The SNB has previously said that it would increase available deposits to commercial banks, as well as cut interest rates.
Another factor which saw the Dollar gain ground against the pound was US President Barack Obamas’ $450bn (£282bn) package of tax cuts and spending plans aimed at creating jobs and bolstering the economy. He wants to fund huge construction projects, schools and services, while giving tax cuts to workers and small businesses to boost recruitment.
This news also bolstered the US Dollar, compounding its strength as a safe haven currency. This went further to pushing GBP/USD rates lower, hitting a 2 month low on Friday, despite rates to buy Euros nudging the best they have been in nearly 6 months.
To put last week’s market movements into perspective, a typical transfer of £200K would have seen you receive $4800 less than at the end of the previous week.
Do you need to buy or sell US Dollars? Send us an enquiry now.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday – There is no data of note today, other than Trade Balance figures from Australia. Of course with such volatility in the markets, general demand or lack thereof will likely drive exchange rates today.
Tuesday – UK data today comprises Retail Price Index, Trade Balance figures, and the Consumer Price Index. All of these are significant releases, and any negative numbers could easily reverse the significant GBP/EUR gains we saw last week.
Wednesday – Unemployment figures are released from the UK today. There has been a run of poor UK data of late and this could compound Sterling weakness. From the Eurozone, we have industrial production figures. Stateside we will see Retail Sales, and various inflationary measures.
Thursday – From the US today we have further inflationary numbers, and Industrial Production figures. Other than that all data today is from Switzerland; an interest rate decision, Industrial Production figures, and inflation data. Given the effect the Swiss had on the markets last week, we will be keeping a close eye on these numbers.
Friday – A quiet end to the week. Some Net flow data from the US and consumer sentiment survey also from the US are the only releases of note.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Jumat, 09 September 2011
Pound/Euro rates climb September 2011 - Why?
Friday 9th September 2011
Good morning. Well, what a difference a day makes! This time yesterday the Pound/Euro rate was €1.1320, with forecasts for it to drop further. Instead, the Euro weakened significantly on the back of the press conference by ECB president Jean Claude Trichet, and this caused GBP/EUR rates to rise by over 1.5% to near €1.15. Today we'll take a look at his comments and what caused the gains. Rates at 08:30am this morning are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1497
• GBP/USD 1.5973
• GBP/AUD 1.5036
• GBP/NZD 1.9125
• GBP/CHF 1.3923
• GBP/CAD 1.5795
• GBP/ZAR 11.475
• GBP/JPY 123.68
• GBP/DKK 8.5610
• GBP/NOK 8.6456
• EUR/USD 1.3891
Pound makes significant gains vs Euro
These charts show the GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates as they moved throughout the day yesterday. There was a general strengthening of Sterling in the morning as a UK clearer purchased the Pound, creating strength.
Then, we had the BoE decision to hold interest rates, and no mention was made of QE at all. This helped the pound further, although we'll have to wait 2 weeks to see if the minutes show any discussion of QE. Rates then levelled off waiting for the ECB press conference at 13:30pm.
In the press conference, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet highlighted "downside risks to economic growth" in the euro zone after leaving interest rates on hold. Markets believe future rate hikes are off the table in the EU and the ECB may even need to cut rates by the end of this year. The comments significantly weakened the Euro, which through the day climbed from €1.1320 to nearly €1.15 - this represents a £2000 saving on a €150,000 property purchase in only one day!
So will the Pound continue to go up against the Euro?
Despite sterling's rally, analysts cautioned that signs that the economy is continuing to weaken while the euro zone's debt crisis festers could prompt the BoE to add to asset purchases in the coming months.
"Although the case for more stimulus (QE) has certainly strengthened, the deterioration in the demand outlook was evidently deemed insufficient to warrant an immediate move," analysts at Barclays Capital said in a note. Translated, this means although no QE for now, there probably will be some to come soon, and this will likely limit any further gains in the rate.
So what to do if you need to buy Euros?
You could either fix the rate now while it's very good with a Forward contract; you only lodge 10% of what you want to convert, and we can hold the rate for up to 2 years for you.
If you think the rate may gain further, then you can place a 'Stop Loss' order. This means you can still aim for a higher exchange rate, but should rates fall back away, you can set a lower limit where your currency will be purchased automatically, thus having a safety net should things not go your way.
Whatever you need to do, send us an enquiry now so we can discuss the different options with you. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks, so take the first step to making the most of your currency now and click the link below for a free consultation.
Good morning. Well, what a difference a day makes! This time yesterday the Pound/Euro rate was €1.1320, with forecasts for it to drop further. Instead, the Euro weakened significantly on the back of the press conference by ECB president Jean Claude Trichet, and this caused GBP/EUR rates to rise by over 1.5% to near €1.15. Today we'll take a look at his comments and what caused the gains. Rates at 08:30am this morning are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1497
• GBP/USD 1.5973
• GBP/AUD 1.5036
• GBP/NZD 1.9125
• GBP/CHF 1.3923
• GBP/CAD 1.5795
• GBP/ZAR 11.475
• GBP/JPY 123.68
• GBP/DKK 8.5610
• GBP/NOK 8.6456
• EUR/USD 1.3891
Pound makes significant gains vs Euro
These charts show the GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates as they moved throughout the day yesterday. There was a general strengthening of Sterling in the morning as a UK clearer purchased the Pound, creating strength.
Then, we had the BoE decision to hold interest rates, and no mention was made of QE at all. This helped the pound further, although we'll have to wait 2 weeks to see if the minutes show any discussion of QE. Rates then levelled off waiting for the ECB press conference at 13:30pm.
In the press conference, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet highlighted "downside risks to economic growth" in the euro zone after leaving interest rates on hold. Markets believe future rate hikes are off the table in the EU and the ECB may even need to cut rates by the end of this year. The comments significantly weakened the Euro, which through the day climbed from €1.1320 to nearly €1.15 - this represents a £2000 saving on a €150,000 property purchase in only one day!
So will the Pound continue to go up against the Euro?
Despite sterling's rally, analysts cautioned that signs that the economy is continuing to weaken while the euro zone's debt crisis festers could prompt the BoE to add to asset purchases in the coming months.
"Although the case for more stimulus (QE) has certainly strengthened, the deterioration in the demand outlook was evidently deemed insufficient to warrant an immediate move," analysts at Barclays Capital said in a note. Translated, this means although no QE for now, there probably will be some to come soon, and this will likely limit any further gains in the rate.
So what to do if you need to buy Euros?
You could either fix the rate now while it's very good with a Forward contract; you only lodge 10% of what you want to convert, and we can hold the rate for up to 2 years for you.
If you think the rate may gain further, then you can place a 'Stop Loss' order. This means you can still aim for a higher exchange rate, but should rates fall back away, you can set a lower limit where your currency will be purchased automatically, thus having a safety net should things not go your way.
Whatever you need to do, send us an enquiry now so we can discuss the different options with you. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks, so take the first step to making the most of your currency now and click the link below for a free consultation.
Kamis, 08 September 2011
Sterling falls on rumour of more QE
Thursday 8th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling has fallen to an 8 week low this morning against a basket of currencies, on speculation the Bank of England (BoE) may have to pursue more Quantitative Easing (QE) to try to stimulate growth in the economy. We have interest rate decision from the BoE today, and if they do indeed announce QE then Sterling could drop further. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1326
• GBP/USD 1.5934
• GBP/AUD 1.5040
• GBP/NZD 1.9138
• GBP/CHF 1.3727
• GBP/CAD 1.5705
• GBP/ZAR 11.372
• GBP/JPY 123.22
• GBP/DKK 8.4343
• GBP/NOK 8.5712
• EUR/USD 1.4063
Sterling falls on rumour of further Quantitative Easing
Due to continuing poor data showing growth is slow in the UK, many analysts think that the BoE will have no choice other than to pump more money into the economy through Quantitative Easing. A Reuters poll on their website today shows economists expect there is a 35% chance the BoE will resort to another bout of asset purchases to support the flagging economy.
However, London traders said some in the market were positioning for the possibility the BoE may announce more stimulus on Thursday, given persistent signs of a slowing economy in the past month. More quantitative easing would be negative for the pound as it would flood the market with the currency, reducing demand. If they do announce it today at 12:00pm then expect exchange rates to drop.
Interest Rate decisions today
Both the UK and EU announce interest rates decisions today at 12:00pm and 12:45pm respectively. We expect both zones to leave rates on hold at 0.5% (BoE) and 1.5% (ECB). As mentioned above however, we will watch for any mention of QE that could hurt the pound.
In the EU, while we expect no change in rates, they give a press conference at 13:30pm and often the comments made can significantly influence the value of the Euro.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency at the best exchange rates, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Good morning. Sterling has fallen to an 8 week low this morning against a basket of currencies, on speculation the Bank of England (BoE) may have to pursue more Quantitative Easing (QE) to try to stimulate growth in the economy. We have interest rate decision from the BoE today, and if they do indeed announce QE then Sterling could drop further. At 08:30am this morning rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1326
• GBP/USD 1.5934
• GBP/AUD 1.5040
• GBP/NZD 1.9138
• GBP/CHF 1.3727
• GBP/CAD 1.5705
• GBP/ZAR 11.372
• GBP/JPY 123.22
• GBP/DKK 8.4343
• GBP/NOK 8.5712
• EUR/USD 1.4063
Sterling falls on rumour of further Quantitative Easing
Due to continuing poor data showing growth is slow in the UK, many analysts think that the BoE will have no choice other than to pump more money into the economy through Quantitative Easing. A Reuters poll on their website today shows economists expect there is a 35% chance the BoE will resort to another bout of asset purchases to support the flagging economy.
However, London traders said some in the market were positioning for the possibility the BoE may announce more stimulus on Thursday, given persistent signs of a slowing economy in the past month. More quantitative easing would be negative for the pound as it would flood the market with the currency, reducing demand. If they do announce it today at 12:00pm then expect exchange rates to drop.
Interest Rate decisions today
Both the UK and EU announce interest rates decisions today at 12:00pm and 12:45pm respectively. We expect both zones to leave rates on hold at 0.5% (BoE) and 1.5% (ECB). As mentioned above however, we will watch for any mention of QE that could hurt the pound.
In the EU, while we expect no change in rates, they give a press conference at 13:30pm and often the comments made can significantly influence the value of the Euro.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency at the best exchange rates, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Rabu, 07 September 2011
Pound falls against EUR after Swiss National Bank intervene
Wednesday 6th September 2011
Good morning. Sterling fell yesterday after George Osbourne gave a negative speech on UK growth. The Pound hit a 7 week low against the US Dollar, and also fell vs the Euro after the Swiss National Bank put set a floor on the EUR/CHF rate, causing the biggest one day swing in exchange rates I've ever seen. At 08:30am this morning, rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1357
• GBP/USD 1.5984
• GBP/AUD 1.5076
• GBP/NZD 1.9304
• GBP/CHF 1.3702
• GBP/CAD 1.5785
• GBP/ZAR 11.346
• GBP/JPY 123.47
• GBP/DKK 8.4578
• GBP/NOK 8.5112
• EUR/USD 1.4067
Swiss National Bank intervene in exchange rate
The euro rose broadly after the SNB said yesterday it would set a minimum exchange rate target of 1.20 francs to the euro and would enforce it by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities. Immediately after the announcement, Sterling shot up vs the Swiss Franc, as this chart illustrates:
Good morning. Sterling fell yesterday after George Osbourne gave a negative speech on UK growth. The Pound hit a 7 week low against the US Dollar, and also fell vs the Euro after the Swiss National Bank put set a floor on the EUR/CHF rate, causing the biggest one day swing in exchange rates I've ever seen. At 08:30am this morning, rates are as follows:
• GBP/EUR 1.1357
• GBP/USD 1.5984
• GBP/AUD 1.5076
• GBP/NZD 1.9304
• GBP/CHF 1.3702
• GBP/CAD 1.5785
• GBP/ZAR 11.346
• GBP/JPY 123.47
• GBP/DKK 8.4578
• GBP/NOK 8.5112
• EUR/USD 1.4067
Swiss National Bank intervene in exchange rate
The euro rose broadly after the SNB said yesterday it would set a minimum exchange rate target of 1.20 francs to the euro and would enforce it by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities. Immediately after the announcement, Sterling shot up vs the Swiss Franc, as this chart illustrates:
The rate shot up from 1.28 to 1.38 in a matter of minutes, easily the biggest one day swing in exchange rates I have ever seen. Just a few weeks ago the rate was 1.17 so it has improved by a staggering 15%, of which yesterday accounted for nearly 8%.
The Euro gained on the announcement, pushing GBP/EUR rates lower, however the drop was limited by continued fears about EU debt. Against the US Dollar, the Pound also fell, as investors seek out a new safe haven now the CHF is no longer attractive.
UK Economic Outlook gloomy
Two things happened yesterday to cast doubt on the UK recovery. UK service sector data posted its biggest drop in a decade, in another sign the British economy is struggling, keeping the topic of more quantitative easing on the Bank of England's agenda.
Secondly the chancellor George Osbourne admitted the economic recovery hopes had been revised down, following a raft of recent poor UK data.
This compounded the poor retail sales, and has put Sterling on the back foot.
Summary
The Dollar is gaining strength now the Swiss Franc is not as attractive as a safe haven. This is to the detriment of perceived weaker currencies such as the Pound and the Euro. The Euro has also gained due to the intervention of the Swiss National Bank. The net result is lower GBP/EUR and lower GBP/USD rates, and unless we get further developments from the Eurozone regarding sovereign debt, we think these declines may well continue.
If you need to buy currency and want to discuss the options we have to protect you against any adverse exchange rates movements, send me an enquiry for free now, and have a consultation on how you can take control of your currency requirement.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
Selasa, 06 September 2011
Weekly GBP/EUR and GBP/USD forecast
Tuesday 6th September 2011
Good morning. Today we'll take a detailed look at GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates over the course of the last weeks trading. In this week’s Report:
• Pound slips away on poor data but rallies at end of week
• UK interest rates to remain on hold for some time
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
At the start of the week we saw the GBP/EUR rate reduce for two consecutive trading days to 1.1283. Clients were receiving less Euros for their pounds as the Euro gained ground against Sterling. This movement would have seen a difference of nearly 1000 euros on a £200,000 trade over a two day period.
Good morning. Today we'll take a detailed look at GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates over the course of the last weeks trading. In this week’s Report:
• Pound slips away on poor data but rallies at end of week
• UK interest rates to remain on hold for some time
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates
(For currencies other then GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)
Sterling vs. Euro;
At the start of the week we saw the GBP/EUR rate reduce for two consecutive trading days to 1.1283. Clients were receiving less Euros for their pounds as the Euro gained ground against Sterling. This movement would have seen a difference of nearly 1000 euros on a £200,000 trade over a two day period.
Sterling was vulnerable almost across the board this week. UK net lending and money supply data was poor on Tuesday and consumer confidence data remains at very low levels. The euro was on the back foot.
Euro zone annual inflation was unchanged in August while the number of people without jobs continued to increase. This was confirmed by figures released on Wednesday, adding to expectations that the next ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate move could be a cut rather than a hike. As a result we saw GBP/ EUR trade around the €1.13 level and a dip in the market was looking increasingly likely towards the latter stages of the week as the euro continues to enjoy hefty investment from Asian sovereign buyers.
EU statistics office Eurostat said inflation in the 17 countries using the euro was 2.5 percent year-on-year in August, the same as in July, as expected by economists.
The European Central Bank has indicated they want to keep inflation below, but close to, 2 percent, and economists had been expecting the bank to raise interest rates a third time this year to 1.75 percent from 1.5 percent to stem price pressures.
There was no surprise month-end moves from the British Pound this time, Wednesdays session was a case of sideways trading among the major currencies, though the euro had weakened significantly by Thursday morning.
With regards to the euro exchange rate we note that PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) numbers are due across Europe with slight declines expected in general and risk appetite should respond accordingly.
Friday morning’s whole-of-Eurozone Producer Price Index data showed an acceleration in the increase in input prices for Eurozone producers. Invariably, manufacturers will pass these price rises on to consumers, so the figure suggests that the single economic area may face higher prices as 2011 draws to a close, meaning further interest rate rises by the ECB are increasingly likely.
If you need to buy or sell Euros, send us an enquiry today.
Sterling vs. US Dollar;
The Sterling/Dollar had a bullish day on Monday, as traders continued to sell the USD against many other currencies. As the stock markets rallied, the Pound gained strength against the Greenback.
Euro zone annual inflation was unchanged in August while the number of people without jobs continued to increase. This was confirmed by figures released on Wednesday, adding to expectations that the next ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate move could be a cut rather than a hike. As a result we saw GBP/ EUR trade around the €1.13 level and a dip in the market was looking increasingly likely towards the latter stages of the week as the euro continues to enjoy hefty investment from Asian sovereign buyers.
EU statistics office Eurostat said inflation in the 17 countries using the euro was 2.5 percent year-on-year in August, the same as in July, as expected by economists.
The European Central Bank has indicated they want to keep inflation below, but close to, 2 percent, and economists had been expecting the bank to raise interest rates a third time this year to 1.75 percent from 1.5 percent to stem price pressures.
There was no surprise month-end moves from the British Pound this time, Wednesdays session was a case of sideways trading among the major currencies, though the euro had weakened significantly by Thursday morning.
With regards to the euro exchange rate we note that PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) numbers are due across Europe with slight declines expected in general and risk appetite should respond accordingly.
Friday morning’s whole-of-Eurozone Producer Price Index data showed an acceleration in the increase in input prices for Eurozone producers. Invariably, manufacturers will pass these price rises on to consumers, so the figure suggests that the single economic area may face higher prices as 2011 draws to a close, meaning further interest rate rises by the ECB are increasingly likely.
If you need to buy or sell Euros, send us an enquiry today.
Sterling vs. US Dollar;
The Sterling/Dollar had a bullish day on Monday, as traders continued to sell the USD against many other currencies. As the stock markets rallied, the Pound gained strength against the Greenback.
On Tuesday Pound/Dollar decreased by nearly 170 pips, in converse with the positive Interbank sentiment at nearly +1%, depreciating from 1.6420 to 1.6253, closing the day at 1.6297.
The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as the dollar was weighed by mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon implement fresh stimulus measures to boost U.S. growth.
On Thursday Pound/Dollar decreased with nearly 125 pips, in line with the negative Interbank sentiment at almost -8%, depreciating from 1.6257 to 1.6130, closing the day at 1.6178.
The pound slipped to a three-week low versus the US dollar on Thursday afternoon to $1.6197 after data released showed that manufacturing activity in the UK shrank in August, further signalling that the economic recovery is stalling.
Friday afternoon’s Non-Farm Payroll figure caused massive price action for the Dollar at the time of its release. The figure immediately caused investors to move out of stocks and into defensive bond plays, which saw the US Dollar gain ground as the week’s session drew to a close.
The Pound edged higher against the Greenback on Friday, extending a bounce from a 3-week low struck on Thursday at 1.6130 ahead of the US jobs data. GBP/USD managed to regain the 1.6200 mark during the European session and touched a daily high of 1.6253 in recent trade.
If you need to buy or sell US Dollars, send us an enquiry today.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Tuesday – Today in Australia we have the RBA interest rate decision and policy statement. In the Eurozone we have GDP figures month on month and year on year.
Wednesday – Wednesday sees industrial production and manufacturing production figures released in the UK, whilst in Canada we have the BoC interest rate decision.
Thursday – An important day for the UK and Eurozone with interest rate decisions for both economies. On the other side of the pond we have jobless claims data.
Friday – We end the week with a busy day in UK but quieter elsewhere with data Producer Price Index in the UK which measures the change in the price of goods manufactured. The UK also releases figures relating to the Trade Balance and Producer Price index.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
The pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, as the dollar was weighed by mounting speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon implement fresh stimulus measures to boost U.S. growth.
On Thursday Pound/Dollar decreased with nearly 125 pips, in line with the negative Interbank sentiment at almost -8%, depreciating from 1.6257 to 1.6130, closing the day at 1.6178.
The pound slipped to a three-week low versus the US dollar on Thursday afternoon to $1.6197 after data released showed that manufacturing activity in the UK shrank in August, further signalling that the economic recovery is stalling.
Friday afternoon’s Non-Farm Payroll figure caused massive price action for the Dollar at the time of its release. The figure immediately caused investors to move out of stocks and into defensive bond plays, which saw the US Dollar gain ground as the week’s session drew to a close.
The Pound edged higher against the Greenback on Friday, extending a bounce from a 3-week low struck on Thursday at 1.6130 ahead of the US jobs data. GBP/USD managed to regain the 1.6200 mark during the European session and touched a daily high of 1.6253 in recent trade.
If you need to buy or sell US Dollars, send us an enquiry today.
Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Tuesday – Today in Australia we have the RBA interest rate decision and policy statement. In the Eurozone we have GDP figures month on month and year on year.
Wednesday – Wednesday sees industrial production and manufacturing production figures released in the UK, whilst in Canada we have the BoC interest rate decision.
Thursday – An important day for the UK and Eurozone with interest rate decisions for both economies. On the other side of the pond we have jobless claims data.
Friday – We end the week with a busy day in UK but quieter elsewhere with data Producer Price Index in the UK which measures the change in the price of goods manufactured. The UK also releases figures relating to the Trade Balance and Producer Price index.
If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.
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