Pound falls after growth forecasts revised

Wednesday 19th May 2013 
Good afternoon, and I hope everyone enjoyed the extended bank holiday break. The markets re-opened yesterday but it was pretty flat. Today has been busier and we have seen the Pound/Euro rate drop today after a cut to UK growth forecasts. In today’s post I will take a look at this, and also the increasing threat of more Quantitative Easing in the UK that could weaken the Pound further. 

In today’s report: 

•  OECD cuts UK economic growth forecasts
• Poor UK data increases chance of more QE 
• Central banks in currency war to devalue currencies 
• How to protect against adverse rate movements 

OECD cuts UK economic growth forecasts 

Today we have seen Sterling drop sharply against the Euro, after a leading economic think tank has forecast that Britain's economy will grow at a much slower pace than expected. The reasons were given as spending cuts and a lack of consumer and business confidence restrict the recovery. 

In its 6 monthly forecast, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned that a long and bumpy recovery in the Eurozone would continue to hit exports. They have also said the the UK governments deficit reduction programme would act as a brake on growth. 

The OECD said the UK government's austerity plans had affected growth, but said the measures were "necessary" and warned that "further fiscal consolidation" was needed. I read this as further confirmation that the Bank of England will have to pursue more Quantitative Easing. 

I’ll get into more detail regarding this in a moment, but in a nutshell further QE would weaken the Pound and bring rates further down. 

Click here to find out more about our exchange rates

Poor UK data also increases chance of more QE; Pound/Euro on the way down? 

Last week we had some quite poor UK data, including Retail Sales that were much lower than expected, and inflation numbers that also disappointed. There is now growing expectation that when the new Bank of England Governor takes over in a month, he will be more aggressive in pursuing the asset purchasing programme. 

The more and more likely this is, the more the Pound will come under pressure so we could see rates continue to fall away throughout June. Of course it’s not a given that GBP/EUR rates will drop, as the currency pair is being pulled in both directions. 

On the one hand, the threat of QE and poor data is weakening the Pound. On the other hand, the Euro is also relatively weak due to it’s own sluggish growth, so the direction of GBP/EUR will probably come down to investor sentiment, and so could go either way. 

Worried about rates falling? Click here to send me a free enquiry.

Pound/US Dollar could fall in coming weeks

The muted and slow recovery in Britain contrasted with the forecast for the US, which is expected to reach almost 3% growth next year. This coupled with the fact the US Dollar is a safe haven currency will probably mean GBP/USD rates fall in the coming weeks. 

Good news from the states will strengthen the US Dollar, making it more expensive to buy. Don’t be surprised to see rates drop back below the $1.50 mark. 

Currency Wars 

As I mentioned above, the Bank of England may well pursue further Quantitative Easing. But they’re not the only ones doing this. The USA and Japan also have asset purchasing programmes. What they are actually doing, is attempting to manipulate the value of their respective currencies. 

Why? Well taking the UK as an example, the problems in the Eurozone are affecting our exports (50% of our exports go to the EU). So, buy flooding the market with Sterling through QE, they are diluting the pool and thus lowering the value of the Pound. In turn, this makes our products more attractive to buyers in the Eurozone, and so the idea is to help boost these exports in order to return the UK to steady growth. 

The truth is that it’s really an unproven tool . You can read an interesting article on the subject by the BBC economics editor Stephanie Flanders here

How to protect against adverse exchange rate movements 

The uncertainty and differing forecast for exchange rates over the coming weeks and months, means it is impossible to predict where exchange rates are headed. For those that need to buy or sell currency, this should be a worry, as when moving large sums, the difference can be huge. For example earlier this year, the cost of buying €150,000.00 increased by over £10,000 in just a few months. 

So, to protect against an unnecessary increase in the cost of the currency you need to buy, a popular solution is a ‘Forward Contract’. This allows you to fix today’s exchange rates for up to 2 years in to the future, and only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. Then at any time in the next 2 years, you can settle the remaining funds on the contract, in part of in full, and take delivery of your currency. 

In this way you can give yourself a finite cost, protect against rates moving against you, and remove all your exposure to the volatile currency markets. 

To discuss this, and the other tools I can offer, click below to send me a free enquiry. In addition to various contracts and expert knowledge on the currency markets, I can offer you commercial rates of exchange that are up to 5% better than you can achieve at the banks. 

I look forward to hearing from you. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

BoE upgrade UK growth forecasts / Currency Forecast

Thursday 16th May 2013 
Good afternoon. Sterling Exchange rates remain fairly stable, with GBP/EUR sat just above €1.18 and GBP/USD around $1.5250 at the time of writing. The Pound is being supported by robust UK data, including the upgraded economic growth forecasts for the UK. This is what I’ll be looking at in today’s report, along with an outline of the types of contract I can offer to help you get the best exchange rates. 

If you are looking for the best exchange rates, or are trying to work out whether the Pound will go up or down against the Euro or any other currency, then read on below. You can also have a free consultation on your particular requirements by clicking here.

Bank of England upgrades growth forecasts 

The Bank of England yesterday upgraded its economic growth forecast, with the Governor Mervyn King saying that "a recovery is in sight". He also said that the projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than they expected three months ago. "That's the first time I've been able to say that since before the financial crisis.” 

This was good news for the Pound, and as a result exchange rates remain at relatively decent levels compared to earlier in the year. Economic growth this year is now expected to be greater than 1%, up from the Bank's previous estimate of 0.9%. As you can see from today's chart, optimism has pushed the Pound up nicely against the Euro.

The underlining picture remained subdued however. Sir Mervyn said: "This hasn't been a typical recession and it won't be a typical recovery. Nevertheless, a recovery is in sight." So, while the outlook was slightly more rosy than it was three months ago, we are not quite out of the woods yet, with the BoE saying that the recovery will remain weak by historical standards". 

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Problems in Eurozone could hurt the Pound. 

While the UK is doing better than it had been, the same can’t be said for the Eurozone. Figures released yesterday showed that France fell back into recession, and the Eurozone economy as a whole contracted for the sixth quarter in a row. 

Many of my clients thought that the problems in Europe would weaken the Euro and push rates higher. Of course this may be the case, but it’s important to remember that the poor Eurozone data means that UK exporters will face obstacles in the coming months. 

The UK is trying to bounce back on an export led recovery, and a weak Eurozone means there will be less demand for UK products. Touching on this yesterday, the BoE said that the "main risks to the recovery continue to emanate from abroad". So with the Eurozone economy remaining weak, this could hurt the pound. 

As I mentioned in my previous report, this means that we may see the Bank of England try to devalue the Pound to make our exports more attractive. This is what we saw earlier in the year when the GBP/EUR rate fell from 1.2350 to 1.13 in just a few months. 

You can read an interesting article here from Reuters, where they are forecasting the new Governor will opt for aggressive easing, which would really weaken the Pound and potentially send exchange rates tumbling.

If you need to buy or sell currency at the best rates, send me an enquiry. 

Types of Contract I offer 

As a Senior FX broker for one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokerages, I can help you get exchange rates significantly better than the banks, by as much as 4%. 

In addition to better rates, there are various contract types I offer that can help protect you against rates moving the wrong way. Let’s take a look at the main types: 

SPOT CONTRACT 

The Spot Contract is the most basic and popular foreign exchange product. It is an agreement to buy or sell one currency in exchange for another. You have 2 days to settle the contract, at a price based on the prevailing "spot exchange rate" the current value of one currency compared to another. 

Although the spot market lets you buy or sell currency as you need it, spot exchange rate movements are highly unpredictable, even during a single trading day. Upon receipt of cleared funds currency is available for onward transmission. 

FORWARD CONTRACT 

A Forward Contract lets you buy or sell one currency against another, for settlement no later than on the day the contract expires. Unlike spot contracts, a forward contract eliminates the risk of fluctuating exchange rates by locking in a price today for a transaction that will take place in the future (up to a maximum of 2 years). You also have the flexibility to take delivery of your currency in an agreed time period before the expiry date. 

A 10% deposit is required to secure the contract and is payable within two working days with settlement due on the day the contract expires. 

LIMIT ORDER 

A Limit Order is an order to secure currency at a specific price that may not be currently available. This type of contract is particularly useful when the markets are moving in a positive direction for you. This is one of the two most common types of orders, the other being a Stop Loss Order. 

STOP LOSS ORDER 

A Stop Loss Order is used when the market is moving in a negative direction for your currency. An order is placed on file with your broker to help ease the stress of adverse market movements. A stop loss order instructs your broker to buy when the currency hits a certain point. The purpose of the stop loss is obvious – you want to prevent any further movement before the currency falls any further. 

Make a free enquiry with me now 

If you need the best exchange rates, or would like to discuss my service in more detail, click here to send me a free enquiry today. I can provide a free consultation on the options available to you, to help you decide when to fix your rate and on what type of contract. 


There is no cost or obligation involved, and you may be surprised how much you can save in using me to secure currency at the best exchange rates. 

I look forward to hearing from you.

Alastair Archbold.

Decent UK data keep Sterling supported

Friday 10th May 2013
Good morning. Sterling remains supported at relatively high levels against the Euro, close to the best in around 3 months. Against the Dollar however, the Pound has fallen due to a strengthening of the US currency.

All in all, the UK economy has posted some decent figures this week, which has helped the Pound remain buoyant against other currencies, and has also influenced the decision this week by the Bank of England to keep interest rate and QE on hold. So what do I have in store for you today?

• UK industrial and manufacturing figures better than expected
• Bank of England leaves interest rates and QE on hold
• US Dollar gains strength, pushing GBP/USD rates lower.
• How Stop Loss orders can help you achieve the best exchange rates

UK economic figures better than expected, boosting Sterling

We had several UK released this week that impressed the markets, and this has helped the Pound stay relatively strong against the Euro and other currencies. We had UK industrial and manufacturing production numbers released mid-week, and these were stronger than forecast in March, as they were boosted by manufacturing and a recovery in oil and gas output. Manufacturing output, a sub-sector of industrial production, rose 1.1%, boosted by electronics, metals and machinery.

These numbers were higher than the markets were expecting, and as a result the Pound has remained supported against the Euro and other currencies. This follows a decent run for UK data in the last few weeks, and this recent improved news on the UK economy has boosted hopes that activity is gaining a firmer footing. This is one of the reasons the Bank of England held off any further stimulus this week, which I’ll look at in a moment.

This morning however we had Trade Balance numbers from the UK that were slightly worse than expected. This has taken the steam out of the Pounds run, and pulled rates slightly lower.

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Bank of England refrains from changing interest rates or QE levels.

The Bank of England has kept its stimulus programme of quantitative easing (QE) unchanged and also held interest rates at 0.5%. The decision had been widely expected, and certainly I did not expect any change in policy.

I think this will remain the case until the new Bank governor, Mark Carney, takes over the helm in July. This was the existing governor’s penultimate meeting, with his last one in June. It will be interesting to what kind of approach Carney takes when he takes over, and if he follows the same route of trying to weaken the Pound as King had done. Time will tell.

In the last few months, 3 of the members had voted for an increase in QE. The better numbers coming from the UK however, including the 0.3% growth in the first 3 months, seems to have had an impact on the chance of further stimulus.

In 2 weeks’ time, we’ll be privy to how the 9 members voted, and this will give a clearer indication of where the Pound may move in the future. If for example only 1 of the members voted for QE, I would expect the Pound to make gains.

US Dollar gains strength, pushing GBP/USD rates lower.

Despite better UK numbers, the Pound/Dollar rate has actually fallen in the last couple of days. Part of this was due to comments yesterday evening by one of the FED members, in which they hinted they may look to reduce the Fed's on-going monetary stimulus.

Currently they buy $85bn of bonds every month in open ended Quantitative Easing. The news strengthened the US Dollar, and the GBP/USD rate has fallen a point overnight to 1.5390.

Buying or selling US Dollars? Click here to compare my rates.

How ‘Stop Loss’ Orders can help you get the best exchange rates

Most of you reading this blog are doing so because you want to achieve the best possible exchange rates, and convert your funds at the best time. Of course it’s impossible to predict where rates will go, however there are tools that you can use to help you make the most of your currency. One of these is the ‘Stop Loss’ order.

These work by placing a lower limit in the market, a ‘worst case scenario’ and should the rate drop below this, we purchase your currency automatically.

For example let’s say you need to buy Euros, and the current GBP/EUR trading rate is 1.18. You will be hoping the rate goes higher, but of course you don’t want to lose out should the market drop. So in this example, you could place a Stop Loss order to buy your currency should the rate drop below 1.17. If the market goes up, you can take advantage of any gains. If however the rate starts to drop, you know the lowest rate that you will achieve; 1.17.

Stop Losses are very useful tools when the market is rising, as you can raise your Stop Level at any time as the market rises. They are very popular for those buying property or need Euros, as it allows effective budgeting.

• Want to know more about Stop Loss Orders?
• Need the very best Exchange Rates to buy or sell currency?
• Would you like to discuss what’s happening in the market to help you time your purchase?
• Sick of getting poor rates and service from your bank?

If you have answered yes to any of the above questions, then you would benefit from a free consultation with me about you requirements. I can discuss what you need to do, and explain the options you can consider within your time frame. The rates of exchange I source for my clients are commercial levels that are up to 5% better than available at banks or other financial institutions.

Click here to send me a free enquiry today.

Have a great weekend.

Interest Rates moving the currency markets

Tuesday 7th May 2013 

Good afternoon. It’s been a week since my last post which focused on the UK’s stronger than expected growth figures. Since then, the markets have been anything but quiet with an interest rate cut in the Eurozone and Australia weakening their respective currencies. In today’s report I’ll take a look at the effect of these rate cuts on exchange rates, and also what else I would be looking out for this week if I needed to convert currency. So, in Today’s report: 

• European Central Bank cut interest rates, pushing GBP/EUR up 
• Australia also cuts rates, weakening Australian Dollar 
• Bank of England to meet this week to discuss Interest rates and QE 
• Strategies to help you achieve great exchange rates 

European Central Bank cut interest rates 

Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its interest rate from 0.75% to 0.5%. As I pointed out in my last post, there was always the risk of a cut and my prediction of this cut weakening the Euro proved to be true. In fact, the cut itself didn’t really have an immediate impact on exchange rates; it was comments that the ECB president made afterwards that really caused some movement. 

He said it was "ready to act if needed", should more be required to boost the Eurozone’s economic health. Worries about Eurozone persist, with data showing manufacturing activity across the 17-nation bloc shrank in April. The ECB also extended its cheap loans to banks until at least July 2014. 

Mr Draghi said that the ECB was prepared to cut interest rates further should conditions make it necessary. He also said the central bank was "technically ready" for negative deposit rates. These comments caused the Euro to weaken and therefore cheaper to purchase. It pushed the GBP/EUR mid-market rate to 1.1900, which is the best we’ve seen it since back in January this year. 

But analysts were divided over whether the cut would have much of an impact on the Eurozone economy however.

Howard Archer, analyst at IHS Global Insight, said: "Admittedly, it is unlikely that the trimming of interest rates from 0.75% to 0.5% will have a major growth impact, especially given fragmented credit markets, but any potential help to the Eurozone economy in its current state is worthwhile."

One interesting analogy I liked which I read on an article by Stephanie Flanders of the BBC, likened it to “opening the windows in a convertible when the top's already down”. You can read her views on the cut here which as usual gives a very comprehensive outline. 

So what does it mean for exchange rates?


Initially it caused them to rise as I outlined above. The spike was not to last however, as this morning we had some pretty decent numbers out of the Eurozone, which has caused the Euro to regain strength, pulling the rate down from 1.19 to 1.1833 at the time of writing, as you can see from today's chart above. French Trade Balance numbers were better than expected, as were German factory orders, which combined to pull rates back down. 

I think that the next main driver for the Pound/Euro rate will be what the Bank of England does this Thursday. More on that below. 

Need to buy or sell Euros? Click here to get the best rates

Australia also cuts interest rates 

Australia's central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low, in an attempt to counter slowing growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its key rate to 2.75% from 3%. It wasn’t expected, as most thought that they would leave rates on hold. When markets opened this morning the GBP/AUD rate rose by a point as a result of the weaker Aussie Dollar. 

Australia's economic growth in recent years has been fuelled by the growing demand for its commodities, such as iron ore. That resulted in a resources boom in Australia and helped it sustain growth through the global financial crisis. In turn, this has kept the AUD strong and exchange rates low, so this spike will be welcome for anyone who is looking to buy AUD in the coming weeks or months. 

Need to buy or sell Australian Dollars? Click here for the best rates. 

Bank of England to announce interest rates/QE decision this week. 

As always for the first Thursday of the first full week of the month, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce their latest decision on interest rates this Thursday at 12pm. It’s quite likely that rates will be left on hold, and I don’t expect any change to Quantitative Easing, but there is an outside chance this could be increased. 

In the last few months, 3 of the 9 members have voted to increase QE, including the banks governor Mervyn King. So only 2 more would be needed for this to be pushed through. Given the latest growth figures in the UK were better than expected, I think there is now less chance of this happening, but it’s still a possibility. 

If more QE was announced, expect the Pound to fall. No announcement may cause a slight gain, but don’t expect much. We’ll have to wait another 2 weeks to see how the vote went, and this again could cause the Pound to change in value. 

Find out how exchange rates may move in the coming weeks. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now. 

Getting the best Exchange Rates 

If you need to get the best exchange rates, regardless whether you are buying or selling a foreign currency, the worst thing you can do is simply sit back and hope the rate will move in your direction. Hope is not a reliable economic tool, and often more is lost through indecision than a poor decision. 

So what can you do? Your first step should be making a free enquiry with me by clicking here. I can get in touch to discuss your requirements, and run over the different options you can consider. Being fully armed with all the relevant information and knowing your options, will help you make an informed decision on what to do. 

There are various options from Fixing your rate on a Forward contract, to placing lower and upper trading levels through ‘Stop Loss’ and ‘Limit’ orders. 

To find out more about these and discuss your requirements, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. I look forward to hearing from you.  

Click here to send me a free enquiry