Pound/Euro rates were trading as high as €1.43 this morning when European markets opened, due to the mess that is the Greek debt crisis. When markets opened the Euro gained back some of its losses, and at the time of writing GBP/EUR is around the €1.41 mark. Let’s take a look at what’s been going on.Greece fails to agree to bailout deal
It now looks almost certain that Greece will miss its debt repayment to the IMF tomorrow. The European Central bank have stopped its emergency lending that was keeping the Greek banks afloat, after Greece announced at the weekend that it would hold a referendum on their bailout terms, and this referendum is next Sunday. Greek banks are now closed, and they have implemented capital controls, meaning that people there are limited to taking out only €60.00 per day. Last week, talks between Greece and the Eurozone countries over bailout terms ended without an agreement, and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras then called for a referendum on the issue to be held on 5 July. Until then, the Euro is in a complete mess. They may well agree to the deal, and this will simply kick the can further down the road as negotiations begin again. The reason the Euro hasn’t fallen further than it has is because there is still a feeling within financial markets that a deal can be done here to keep Greece very much within the European Union. It’s in everyone’s interest to make a deal, especially Greece. However until the referendum is held, there will be huge uncertainty that is likely to reflected in very volatile trading in the Euro. Are you worried about how the Greek crisis may affect exchange rates?
If you need to buy or sell Euros, then the coming week will be an incredibly volatile one for exchange rates. If you need to buy Euros, or perhaps convert Euros back to Sterling, then the current market volatility and lack of liquidity could make huge differences to the exchange rate. If you have a currency transaction to perform, then feel free to get in touch with me to discuss how the exchange rate could be affected and the options you can consider to protect yourself against a very choppy currency market. I can also provide a quote on your exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker.
Tuesday 23rd June 2015 Since my post yesterday, the Pound/Euro exchange rate has risen by over 2 cents, and at the time of writing sits at €1.41: The reasons for the gains is there is as yet no agreement over Greece, and no deal to decide whether Greece and its creditors can get past the political barriers in the way of sealing a resolution. Euro zone leaders did agree late last night that the institutions representing Greece's creditors should try to wrap up a detailed agreement by Wednesday evening for their finance ministers to approve and present to them on Thursday. So, while there us uncertainty, the Euro is weak. Nothing has really changed though – most still expect a last minute deal to be agreed, and if that happens, expect the rate to correct sharply. If you need to buy Euros, then consider getting something done while it’s still over €1.40. While nobody can predict which way the rate will go, each and every time we’ve got to these levels in the last 6 months, it hasn’t lasted long and the rate has dropped back away again. Click here to send me a free enquiry and find out what rate I can offer on your exchange.
Monday 22nd June 2015 This week, and today in particular, is quite a critical one for Greece, and the GBP/EUR exchange rate along with it. Many headlines are suggesting that this is the ‘Last Chance’ for Greece. There have been many of these before, and I don’t think today will provide a complete solution. What exactly is happening in Greece?
They need to make a debt payment of €1.6 billion by next Tuesday, 30th June. However to be able to actually meet that payment, they need to get a further €7 billion in aid, and that’s what they’re trying to agree today, however to get the funds, the Greeks need to reform pensions and cut spending, which is difficult for their Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to agree to, given he was elected on the premise of ending austerity. Early this morning, he met the leaders of the IMF, ECB and EU commission to outline his proposals. Just before lunch, the EU’s finance ministers started a meeting to see if they can agree on a deal to give Greece the bailout funds they need. Later this evening at 6pm all the EU leaders meet for an emergency summit to debate the crisis. How could Greece affect the GBP/EUR exchange rate?
The uncertainty over Greece’s ability to obtain bailout funds has meant there is a risk of them leaving the Euro. This fear has been keeping the Euro weak, and that’s why the GBP/EUR exchange rate has been hovering around the €1.40 level of late. If they reach an agreement later today, or later this week, then I would expect the Euro to strengthen and cause the GBP/EUR rate to fall. However we’ve seen quite a few of these ‘last chances’ for Greece, and it could be that this weeks meetings simply kick the can down the road a little further, without actually sorting out the fundamental issues. If so, expect rates to remain supported. With worried Greeks currently withdrawing their savings from the banks in huge amounts, it's clear that a solution needs to be founds quickly. Personally I think they will all agree a way forwards sooner or later, which could mean the current GBP/EUR levels may not last for long. Are you looking to convert £5000+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, and keen on getting the best exchange rates?
If you need to convert currency, and would like to get a quote to see how much I could save you on your exchange, then it is certainly worth sending me a free enquiry to obtain a quotation and more information on the services I offer. The rates I can achieve are significantly better than banks and other financial institutions offer, by as much as 5% in some cases. I also offer various types of contracts that can protect you against adverse exchange rate movements that banks don’t usually offer to private clients.
Wednesday 17th June 2015Sterling has gained strength in recent days, after figures showed that UK inflation has turned positive, Unemployment has fallen, and average wage earnings were much better than forecast. This has caused the Pound to gain against other currencies, hitting nearly €1.40 against the Euro, and $1.5750 against the US Dollar: Pound/Euro over last week:
Pound/Dollar over last week:
The other reason for the Pound/Euro rate gaining is the ongoing Greek situation. Relations between Greece and its creditors have fallen apart in recent days, and tomorrow there is an important meeting of EU finance ministers to discuss the situation. There are fears that Greece could default and leave the Euro, and this uncertainty is what is causing the Euro to remain weak. Most analysts still expect a deal to be reached at some point, and if that happens then I would expect Sterling/Euro rates to fall sharply. If you need to buy Euros and don’t want to take the risk of the rate dropping away, then you can place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to order your currency if it goes below a pre-agreed level. In this way should the market drop, you’re limiting losses and not leaving yourself open to a much lower exchange rate than necessary. Are you looking to convert £5000+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, and keen on getting the best exchange rates?
If you need to convert currency, and would like to get a quote to see how much I could save you on your exchange, then it is certainly worth sending me a free enquiry to obtain a quotation and more information on the services I offer. The rates I can achieve are significantly better than banks and other financial institutions offer, by as much as 5% in some cases. I also offer various types of contracts that can protect you against adverse exchange rate movements that banks don’t usually offer to private clients.
Wednesday 10th June 2015 In the last few weeks, the Pound/Euro rate has fallen significantly, mainly due to the fact it looks like Greece are making progress with regards to their debts. Having said that, in the last 24 hours we’ve actually seen a very slight recovery in GBP/EUR rates, although we’re now a long way away from the 8 year high we saw just a month ago, as you can see from the chart below: Since my last post on Monday, Sterling had fallen further against the Euro and other currencies, hurt by concerns over the strength of the UK economy. The Pound is suffering from persistent concerns over the strength of Britain's economy. Recent figures have shown growth in Britain's service sector slowed a great deal in May, while inflation has turned negative for the first time in over 50 years, suggesting the Bank of England will hold off from raising interest rates until at least the middle of next year. However despite the GBP/EUR rate falling into the €1.35’s, this morning we’ve seen a slight recovery to almost €1.37, due to much better than expected Industrial production figures. Manufacturing data disappointed, but overall the markets took the Industrial figures as positive, helping to push the Pound higher against other currencies including the Euro and US Dollar. Will the Pound strengthen against the Euro?
There are a few key things today that could affect the GBP/EUR exchange rate one way or the other. Later today we have a Gross Domestic Product estimate from the NIESR. The last reading was 0.4% so any deviation from this number could affect the Pound. Later this evening at 21:00pm, we have a very important Speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney at Mansion House. Last year when he gave this speech, regular readers may remember that he stated that interest rates may rise sooner than people think. The reaction to this was a huge boost for Sterling. This time around, while I don’t expect him to be quite as loose with his words, everything he says will be very closely watched indeed for any indication on future monetary policy. I don’t think that interest rates are going anywhere for at least 12 months, and if this expectation is pushed back even further tonight, the Pound could suffer and exchange rates could drop. Are you looking to convert £5000+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, and keen on getting the best exchange rates?
If you need to convert currency, and would like to get a quote to see how much I could save you on your exchange, then it is certainly worth sending me a free enquiry to obtain a quotation and more information on the services I offer. The rates I can achieve are significantly better than banks and other financial institutions offer, by as much as 5% in some cases. I also offer various types of contracts that can protect you against adverse exchange rate movements that banks don’t usually offer to private clients.
Monday 8th June 2015Greece defers debt payment, but Pound/Euro rates fail to recover
On Friday, it was announced that Greece will defer the payment that was due, and lump it together with a series of other payments due into on single payment of €1.5bn at the end of the month. So given they didn’t make the payment, why didn’t the Euro weaken and GBP/EUR rates rise? The news was actually a non-event, and had been widely expected. In fact, the markets seem to think that the delay gives all parties additional negotiating time which could lead to a formal agreement to conclude the bailout. The Pound/Euro rate this morning has already fallen nearly a cent, due to the CBI cutting UK growth forecasts, weakening the Pound. Other EU data in the last few days has been strong, which is stopping the Euro getting any weaker. If the Greeks can indeed come to a conclusion over their debts by the end of this month, expect GBP/EUR rates to fall further. Click here to get a quote on EurosUS Jobs data causes GBP/USD rates to fall
On Friday we saw the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls, which is a measure of new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector (because that’s seasonal). The number was 50,000 more than expected, which is a very robust result for the US. As such, the US Dollar gained strength and pulled GBP/USD rates lower. What could affect exchange rates this week?
Below I’ve listed the main scheduled releases that I think could affect exchange rates. Of course ongoing developments in Greece, and the current G7 meeting could also affect things at any time. For a more in depth discussion about what could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, feel free to get in touch with me. Monday 8th June 2015 – Today is relatively quiet, with some Industrial Production data and Trade Balance numbers from Germany, which had little effect on exchange rates. Later today we have Retail Sales numbers from the UK that are a good barometer of overall UK economic activity. If good, Sterling may gain. Tuesday 9th June 2015 – IN the UK today we have an inflation report. Depending what it contains, it could cause speculation on when UK interest rates may rise, and so could affect the Pound. We also have EU Gross Domestic Product. I’m expecting a quarterly reading of +0.4%. If the actual number is higher than this then GBP/EUR rates could fall. Wednesday 10th June 2015 – Today is a very important one for the UK. We have: Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, RICS House Prices and the latest GDP estimate from the NIESR. All of these releases give a good idea how the UK economy is faring, and so simply put, better than expected numbers would strengthen the Pound and vice versa. Further afield, New Zealand has its latest Interest Rate decision and policy press conference, so GBP/NZD could also be affected. Thursday 11th June 2015 – Today Australian releases lots of Unemployment numbers along with House prices, so those watching the GBP/AUD rate should watch for today. Over in the United States we have Jobless Claims, and the latest measure of US Retail Sales. If these numbers continue to show an improvement in the US Economy, expect GBP/USD rates to fall. Friday 12th June 2015 – A very quiet end to the week, with the only data of note Germany wholesale Prices and US inflation data. To discuss your currency requirement, find out what data could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, or to simply get a quote on the exchange rate I can offer you, follow the link below.
Wednesday 3rd June 2015 Not good news for those looking to convert Sterling to Euros I’m afraid. The decline in the GBP/EUR rate has continued today, as you can see from today’s chart:
The reason for the continued fall today was further strength in the Euro. This was caused by the European Central Bank (ECB) saying that Eurozone’s recovery is set to "broaden and strengthen", as it raised its inflation projections for 2015. ECB president Mario Draghi's comments came in a press conference earlier today. This is good news for the EU economy, and strengthened the single currency causing it to become more expensive to buy. The next thing that could affect the rate will be whether Greece makes it's first debt payment on Friday. If they do, then expect the rate to fall further. If they don't then it may recover slightly, but I can't see it getting back to €1.40 any time soon. What effect did this have on Pound/Euro exchange rates?
The effect on the GBP/EUR rate was for it to drop from €1.3775 to €1.36. This is a far cry from the levels of €1.41 we saw just a week ago, and really demonstrates how quickly exchange rates can change. To put this into real terms, a client purchasing €250,000.00 today has to pay £6500.00 more for the same amount of currency compared to a week ago. Fluctuations in the exchange rate can make a big difference to the cost of buying currency, which is why it’s wise to use a specialist broker like myself rather than the bank. I can not only help you to achieve much better rates of exchange, but also help with tools such as ‘Stop Loss’ orders that limits any negative effect of the exchange rate dropping. If you need to buy or sell Euros or indeed any international currency, then get in touch with me for a free quote and more information about the services I can provide. I will get back to you personally within 24 hours to discuss your requirements and give you a free consultation on the different options you can consider. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Tuesday 2nd June 2015 This morning we have seen GBP/EUR rates plummet, with the currency pair falling by 2.5 cents from €1.3950 this morning, to €1.37 at the time of writing: What has caused the drop?
The reason for the drop was a strengthening Euro. Earlier today we saw the latest EU inflation numbers, and these showed that inflation in the Eurozone turned positive in May after five months of negativity, and this revives hopes of an economic recovery in Europe. Earlier this year, the European Central bank embarked on a huge €1.1 trillion Quantitative Easing, or money printing programme in an attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy, and the figures today suggest that this is working. That is why the Euro gained strength and has become more expensive to buy. Meanwhile in Greece…
Also today there may have been developments in Greece. Their Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said that he has issued "a realistic proposal" to its international creditors in an attempt to secure a deal over its debts. "We have submitted a realistic plan for Greece to exit the crisis," he said. The problem is, we don’t know what this plan actually entails! International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and ECB president Mario Draghi are at a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's Francois Hollande discussing the issue at the moment, and their attendance shows how serious these talks are. If they really have made a plan that might be accepted, expect the Euro to gain further strength in the coming days pushing rates even lower. If however his plans come to nothing, then the uncertainty about what will happen with Greece will remain, and this could weaken the Euro and cause rates to recover Worried about Pound/Euro exchange rates?
If you need to convert Pounds to Euros, or Euros back to Pounds at the best rates, then you can send me an enquiry to have a free consultation on exchange rates. I can discuss your particular requirements, explain what could move the exchange rate, and explain various options you can consider as to when to fix an exchange rate. I can also provide you a quote for your exchange that could be up to 5% better than available at your bank, which could save you thousands of pounds on a large transfer.
Last week we saw the Pound/Euro rates above the key €1.40 level, however as with the other 4 or 5 times that’s happened this year, the high rate was not to last, and at the end of last week, poor UK data weakened Sterling, and pulled rates back into the €1.39’s: Why has the Pound fallen against the Euro?
On the one hand, it looks increasingly likely that Greece will be able to meet its upcoming debt payments. My view is they are simply trying to negotiate a better deal, hence the delays. This expectation is giving some strength back to the Euro making it more expensive to buy. On the other hand, the Pound is coming under pressure due to a poor run of economic data. Investors are starting to worry about the implications of the UK leaving the EU, and this uncertainty is stopping investment and weakening the Pound. Prime Minister David Cameron's introduced a law last week that will guarantee the EU referendum will be held by the end of 2017. Also last week we saw other poor data, such as slightly weaker than expected growth figures. This coupled with other data signals that interest rates in the UK aren’t likely to rise until well into 2016. Which way will exchange rates move this week?
Below I’ve listed the main data releases that I think will affect Pound/Euro rates, and exchange rates for other major currencies. Of course any further developments with the Greek situation are also likely to affect rates. If you are looking for the best exchange rates, then click here to send a free enquiry about the rates and service I can offer you, which are up to 5% better than available at banks. This week’s economic data releases
Monday 1st June 2015 – This morning we have already seen manufacturing figures for the UK that were worse than expected that weakened the Pound slightly. We have also seen a raft of US data, most of which was better than analyst forecasts, which has strengthened the US Dollar and taken GBP/USD rates to around $1.52. Tuesday 2nd June 2015 – Today we have UK Mortgage numbers, construction figures, and credit data, all of which could affect the value of the Pound. In Europe, a raft of inflation data is a very important release for those watching Pound/Euro rates, as it could affect how much money the EU pump into the economy through their QE programme. Wednesday 3rd June 2015 – today’s main release is the latest EU decision on interest rates. While no change is expected, the comments made in the press conference at 13:30pm could really affect the Euro, especially so if they make changes to their QE expectations. Thursday 4th June 2015 – Today is the UK’s turn for interest rates, and as with the EU, no change is expected. Any comments made by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney however could well affect Sterling. Friday 5th June 2015 – Today is jobs day in the USA, and there are lots of employment figures including the Non-Farm payrolls numbers. This release in particular often causes large swings in the GBP/USD rate as it’s so hard to forecast. In Europe today, the latest GDP figures could affect Pound/Euro rates. Getting the best exchange rates
Rates are very volatile at the moment, moving very quickly. In order to get the best possible rates you need to have a good currency broker who can monitor the market for you, explain the options you can consider on when to fix a rate, and get you a much better rate than banks will offer. The worst thing you can do is just watch the rate and hope it will move your way, or use the bank to convert your funds.
Why not give me a try? The rates and service I provide are exceptional, and with over 10 years’ experience helping personal and business customers with their currency requirements, it may be prudent to see if I can do the same for you. Send me a free no obligation enquiry today by clicking below.
