Monday 31st March 2014 We have seen the Pound slide off a little at the start of the trading week, with GBP/EUR falling from €1.21 down to €1.2050, a drop of around 0.4%. This was mainly due to consumer credit being lower than expected, reflecting a lack of confidence surrounding the UK economy. This afternoon however it's bounced back to where we started around the €1.21 level, so all in all no change.
There are lots of economic data releases this week that could affect exchange rates, so as usual for a Monday I am going to list what I think are the most important releases, and analyse how this could affect the currency markets. If you need to convert one currency to another, on a bank to bank basis for volumes between £5k and £10m, then read on, as my thoughts below can help you decide when may be the best time to fix your rate. Get in touch if you would like a quote, or to discuss your currency requirement with me in detail. This weeks economic data releases... Monday 31st March 2014 As I’ve already outlined above, the only UK data was slightly disappointing, taking the steam out of Sterling’s recovery. We also saw some EU inflation data this morning, which was roughly in line with expectations. Interestingly the BBC pitch this as terrible news, meaning a possible rate cut by the ECB - if that were the case, Pound/Euro would have gone up, not down. The only other thing of interest today is a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. His comments have recently had a big impact on the value of the Pound. In short if he is positive about the economy, Sterling may gain strength. I think it’s more likely he will have quite a cautionary tone, mirroring the BoE’s recent comments about being concerned about the Pound getting to much stronger, so I think a drop is more likely. Tuesday 1st April 2014 We’ll start in Australia today, and early in the morning we have their interest rate decision. I think it’s very likely they will leave it at 2.5%. GBP/AUD rates have fallen recently due to more demand for their raw materials from China. UK Manufacturing figures are released at 09:30 and I expect a reading of 56.9. Higher means exchange rates could rise accordingly and vice versa. German and EU Unemployment figures are released from Europe today, so those looking to buy Euros need poor numbers here, which would weaken the Euro and make it cheaper to buy. We also have unemployment from the United States, along with some manufacturing numbers. Wednesday 2nd April 2014 Some construction data from the UK today to follow yesterday’s manufacturing. The forecast is 63.00 and as always, a differing result could affect Sterling exchange rates. The main event today however is EU GDP, which will show how their economy is growing. Their last released showed very small growth of 0.1%. Any better, expect GBP/EUR rates to drop away due to a stronger Euro. Thursday 3rd April 2014 As always for the first Thursday in the month, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate, which is 99.9% likely to stay at 0.25%. Euro buyers or sellers should pay close attention to the press conference afterwards by President Mario Draghi. He may hint at a negative deposit rate – if he does, I think Pound/Euro will march upwards. The EU also released Retail Sales figures today, which are a good barometer of overall economic activity. Elsewhere, Australian Trade Balance figures and Retail Sales are announced, and over in the States we have Trade Balance numbers and Jobless numbers. Friday 4th April 2014 The only data of interest today is stateside – Earnings and Unemployment, along with non-farm payrolls. Non-farms is always interesting, and it announces how many new jobs have been created, excluding the farming sector (because it’s seasonal). It’s notoriously difficult to forecast, and the consensus is that 196,000 new jobs will have been created. It’s likely the actual number will differ significantly from that – lower, then GBP/USD will rise, higher, and it will fall. Personally I think it will be quite a bit lower, closer to 130,000. We will see! Find out more about the rates and service I offer I can help you achieve an exchange rate up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker may offer. The savings can be considerable, so why not get in touch for a free quote? If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Friday 28th March 2014 Sterling has risen to €1.2120 against the Euro, before dropping back away this afternoon. In today’s post I’ll look at this weeks figures that have caused the Pound to gain, and run over the tools I can provide to help you achieve the best foreign exchange rates in 2014 Sterling/Euro hits €1.21 The Pound has risen to €1.21 in the last few days, helped along by some very strong Retail Sales figures. Since the Pound/Euro exchange rate had rate dropped below €1.20, it stayed below that level for over a week, hitting resistance every time it threatened to break through. It was the significantly better than forecast Retail Sales figures that finally gave the Pound the push it needed. Once it had broken through the resistance level, it kept rising over €1.21 briefly, before some less impressive UK figures caused it to drop back again. Poor deficit and GDP figures halt Sterling’s rise Figures this morning showed that the UK's current account deficit was much larger than expected. The deficit in the three months to December was £22.4bn, only marginally lower than the all-time high of £22.8bn recorded in the previous quarter. Economists had expected the UK's deficit to narrow to about £14bn in the final three months of the year. One analyst described the deficit as "worryingly large". The poor figure halted the rise in the value of the Pound, and the fact that UK GDP numbers were less than the previous estimate also caused a slight fall. What can you do if you need to buy Euros? 
The rise in the rate is welcome news, but recently the Bank of England has warned against the Pound gaining much more strength. If I needed Euros, I would look at the current rate and realise it’s within 1% or so of the best it’s been in 15 months. It could go higher of course as it’s impossible to predict, but I think by hanging on you are holding out for an inch, while risking losing a yard. For this reason I would lock the current attractive levels with a Forward contract, which means you can reserve your exchange rate on the full amount you need to convert, but only lodge 10% of the total now. The remaining 90% is not required until you need your currency. You can lock in the rate for up to 2 years and thereby protect against a drop. I’m converting Euros to Pounds, what should I do? 
Just a few days ago the EUR/GBP rate was the best it’s been all year. Now we’re above €1.20, the resistance level I mentioned in a recent post now becomes a support level. This means it’s unlikely to drop back through €1.20 any time soon. Some forecasts suggest the Pound will get stronger, although the Bank of England could try to stop it rising much further. That said, the average rate over the last 10 years is €1.30, so it’s actually still quite good. I think it’s going to hold at these levels for a while so I see no value in waiting for rates to drop as they are unlikely to do so. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways:Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Thursday 27th March 2014Good morning - a quick update as we have just seen UK Retail Sales released, smashing expectations and giving the Pound a large boost - up to almost €1.21 against the Euro at the time of writing.
We expected the numbers to show monthly increase in Retails Sales of 0.5%, and an annual increase of 1.7%. The actual figures were 1.7% and 3.7%, which were significantly above forecast. The result for Sterling was a large spike in exchange rates, as you can see from this GBP/EUR chart:
So after more than a week of the Pound struggling to break through the €1.20 barrier, this has now happened due to the much better than expected data. Personally I'm surprised it broke through this barrier so quickly, but then nobody expected today's figures to be so strong.Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Tuesday 25th March 2014 Good afternoon. We have seen a little volatility today with Pound/Euro rates rising from €1.1920 up to €1.20, before hitting resistance and falling back away. Pound/Dollar continues to trade around the $1.65 mark. In today’s post I’m going to explain what caused the swing in GBP/EUR rates. First, let's look at today's GBP/EUR chart. In it you can see rates rising to €1.20 before falling away. I will explain why in a few moments...UK Inflation better than expected First let's look at UK data. In my post yesterday I outlined that one of today’s key data releases was UK inflation, mentioning that if the figure was higher than 1.6% the Pound would strengthen. The actual number came in at 1.7%, so slightly above forecast. This gave the Pound a little push from €1.1920 up to €1.1945 – a small gain, reflected in the small increase in the inflation rate. You can read a full report about the inflation numbers here on the BBC website EU President gives speech, hints at ECB rate cut
The main reason for the spike in rates up to €1.20 was comments by the ECB president Mario Draghi, which I also highlighted yesterday as something that may move rates. A week or so ago, his positivity about the Eurozone economy cause the Euro to strengthen and pull GBP/EUR below €1.20.You can read his full speech here, but to outline the key comments I took from it: “we commit to keep our policy interest rates as low as they are currently or even lower for an extended period of time." ... “In particular, our forward guidance implies that short-term real rates, which are negative today, will become even more negative in the foreseeable future.” So today was different – as you can see from the above, he hinted at interest rates coming down in the EU. This weakened the Euro due to the lower return a cut in interest rates would offer investors. A weaker Euro is cheaper to buy, and so the Pound/Euro rate rose to €1.20. Sterling/Euro hits €1.20 before dropping back away – why was this? In a recent post I explained something called Support and Resistance. In it I outlined the reasons why I think rates won't go above €1.20 for some time, which has been illustrated quite clearly in today's market movements. If you haven’t read it already, it’s worth looking at if you need to buy Euros any time soon, as this may be the highest the exchange rate gets for a while.Pound/Dollar also remains around $1.65 for the same reasons I outlined in the Support and Resistance post I've linked to above.Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: - Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066
Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Monday 24th March 2014 Good afternoon. It’s been a pretty quiet day with not much change in exchange rates since my post last Thursday. Pound/Euro remains at €1.1950, and Pound/Dollar remains at $1.6500. With regards to whether Pound/Euro rates will recover any time soon, my view hasn't changed. I don't think it will go back through €1.20 unless we get some economic data that is significantly better than forecast. In the absence of anything new to move the markets, today I will list all the weeks’ data that I think might affect exchange rates this week. UK GDP data and a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi could both affect GBP/EUR exchange rates moving forwards. This week’s economic data releases that may affect exchange rates. Monday 24th March 2014 Exchange rates have been relatively flat today, however we did see a raft of Inflation data from the Eurozone this morning. The figures were a little lower than expected, weakening the Euros and pushing GBP/EUR rates from 1.1940 to 1.1970, so a slight increase but not by much. Tuesday 25th March 2014 I think the most important release today is a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi at 4pm. It was his recent comments that caused GBP/EUR to drop below the €1.20 mark. If he continues to be upbeat about the EU economy, rates could dip further. Other than that, we have UK Inflation, in the shape of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). I expect this to be around the 1.6% mark. Any higher will push Sterling up and vice versa. Over in the states we have consumer confidence figures and Home Sales data, both of which could affect the Pound/Dollar rate. Wednesday 26th March 2014 There is nothing of note from the UK or EU today, so focus will be on US data. This includes Durable Goods orders, Bank Stress tests, Inflation numbers and mortgage approvals. Thursday 27th March 2014 UK Retail Sales are released at 09:30am this morning. These are closely watched as they reflect overall economic health. The number will be around 4.3% I should think. If it’s lower than this then the Pound will fall, and if higher we could see Sterling get a boost. Elsewhere all data is from the States – Jobless Claims, GDP figures, Home Sales – expect a choppy day for GBP/USD rates. Friday 28th March 2014 Today will be a key day for Sterling exchange rates, as we have the latest GDP figures from the UK showing how the economy is growing. Quarterly growth is forecast to be 0.7%, so any deviation from that figure will affect the Pound accordingly. Elsewhere it’s a busy day in the EU, with Economic sentiment indicators and German inflation data being release, but all focus will be on the UK GDP numbers. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Thursday 20th March 2014 Things have settled down in the currency markets after the economic data released yesterday. Pound/Euro is at €1.20, and I don’t expect it to go higher in the short term. Pound/Dollar has dropped to $1.65. Today I’ll take stock of where exchange rates stand, explain something called ‘Support and Resistance’ which is limiting the rate going higher, and look at how to ensure you get the best possible exchange rate. Sterling/Euro rates hit a resistance barrier at €1.20 As outlined in my post yesterday, the warnings from the Bank of England about the strength of the Pound have been limiting any gains. It has crept up a little more today, hitting €1.20 before dropping back slightly. This is what I thought would happen earlier in the week. So why is it hitting the barrier at €1.20? It’s to do with something called resistance. For those interested in the technical side of it, you can find a detailed explanation of Support and Resistance here. The chart above shows today's movements, and you can see the rate hitting €1.20 before dropping back away. In simple terms, a resistance level, in this case €1.20, is a key level at which the rate hits a barrier and drops back away. It happens because at certain levels the number of sellers exceeds the number of buyers causing the price to go back down. 
It’s really only of interest to investors and speculators. I don’t cater for that type of exchange, as most of the clients I can help are buying or selling property abroad, or businesses that need to buy and sell foreign currency. It is wise to have a basic understanding of it however, as it’s likely to stop the rate getting any higher in the short term. Because of this, I now expect the GBP/EUR rate to struggle to break through the €1.20 level for some time. As you can see from today’s chart, when it got to that level it fell back again, and this is now likely to happen again and again. This will continue until there are new economic figures that would have to be above expectation and causing Sterling to increase and break through. If and when it does, which may take some time, its likely keep rising towards €1.21. At the end of last year, it took a few months to break through the €1.20 level. So if you need to buy Euros then this resistance level could mean this is the peak for some time. If I needed Euros, I would either fix a rate now, or at least place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to protect against the market dropping back away. Discuss your Euro requirement and your options with me today. Pound/Dollar drops to $1.65 
GBP/USD has moved down today, after a speech by the new FED chairman Janet Yellen. She hinted that interest rates in the US could start to rise in early 2015, which caused the Dollar to strengthen and become more expensive to buy. Again looking at the chart, you can see a good example of ‘Support’ that I mentioned earlier, which is at $1.65. Other Currencies: GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD, GBP/AUDSterling exchange rates against the commonwealth currencies, such as the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and also the South African Rand have been dropping in the last few weeks. This is because their economies have been improving, and also interest rates in these zones may start to rise soon. Also the strengthening of the US Dollar has also helped strengthen these currencies, making them more expensive to buy and pulling exchange rates down. Find out more about the rates and service I offer I can help with market knowledge, various contract types, and can source exchange rates that are significantly better than the banks usually offer, sometimes by as much as 4% or 5%. If you need to convert currency, then it will do you no harm to contact me for a quote to compare. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways:Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm UK time. Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Wednesday 19th March 2014It’s been a very busy day in the markets today, with UK Unemployment being released, along with the Bank of England minutes, a speech by governor Mark Carney, and of course the budget statement. This afternoon I will look at the effect each event had on exchange rates, and how this has affected my view on where rates are headed. First, let’s look at today’s GBP/EUR chart that reflects how exchange rates were affected: Mark Carney warns against strong Pound 
As you can see from the chart above, as soon as the market opened at 8am this morning, the Pound started to strengthen as I predicted it would yesterday. This was due to comments last night by BoE governor Mark Carney, in which he said the current low interest environment won’t be around forever. This gave the Pound strength on speculation of interest rates going up. It didn’t last long, and as you can see from the chart above, when the MPC minutes were released, it shows that many of the BoE members are concerned about a strong Pound. Sterling strengthened by 1.5 percent in the month running up to the March MPC meeting, hitting its highest in several years, but in the last week or so has weakened to the lowest it’s been all year. The MPC members noted the further strength in sterling, with Deputy governor Charlie Bean recently saying the BoE could keep interest rates lower for longer if sterling strengthens much more, adding that its current level was "fine". Another member recently said that that further strength in sterling would be a worry. What does this all mean? To me this means if you need to buy Euros at the best exchange rate, the current levels could be as good as it's going to get for some time.UK Unemployment The latest Unemployment figures were released at the same time, and while the overall rate remains at 7.2% as I expected it would, the number of overall people in employment hit record highs. This did little to help the Pound, as all focus was on the BoE warning against the Pound getting stronger. UK Budget Statement 
As I predicted, it had absolutely no effect on exchange rates. Here I will only look at what could affect currency – basically Growth forecasts were up a little, and we’re getting a new Pound coin. Yay.Look at the chart above, and you can see the markets were, as usual, underwhelmed by the Budget, with the Pound barely moving at all throughout the speech. The rest was mostly guff, and if interested you can read a full report on the budget here on the BBC site. What does this mean for those looking at the best exchange rates? 
I have changed my view since my forecast yesterday. I now think it will take a few months before we get back through €1.20, in light of the BoE warning about the Pound getting stronger as I've outlined above. If I needed to buy Euros I would look to fix a rate now, or put protection in place against adverse movements. They have hinted that they won’t let the rate get too much higher, so if you need to buy or sell Euros, consider doing something sooner rather than later. I don’t think it will drop much either due to the economy being fundamentally strong, so for the next few weeks I expect rates to remain range bound between 1.19 and 1.20 Find out more about the rates and service I offer I don’t just trade the Euro; I provide commercial exchange rates for nearly all currencies, including EUR, USD, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR, AED, HKD, JPY, NOK, SEK, DKK, HUF, TRY, CZK, PLN, SGD, THB. I am a senior Currency Broker, and the firm I represent is fully authorised by the FCA to ensure security of client funds. With an annual turnover of £500m I have access to the best foreign currency rates. If you need to convert currency I could save you a significant sum on your exchange. If you are looking for the best foreign exchange rates, get in touch with me today for a free quote. Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm UK time. Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Tuesday 18th March 2014The Pound has fallen again today, dropping as low as €1.19 before settling at that level. There hasn't been any data of note from the UK today, so this is simply the market positioning itself ahead of tomorrows key day for the currency markets. What will affect exchange rates in the next few days?
The next 24 hours will be key for exchange rates, so the following information is important if you need to buy or sell currency at the best exchange rates. Firstly I will look at the key events, and what effect they may have on the market. I will then give my view on what effect this could have on rates, specifically the Sterling/Euro exchange rate. Later this afternoon at 17:45pm we have a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. This could affect exchange rates depending on his comments. If he were to be very upbeat about the UK economy including growth forecasts, then we could see Sterling bounce back. What we're looking for is any hints that interest rates may have to rise, as this would strengthen the Pound. If however he does the opposite and indicates that a rate hike is some way off, then Sterling could fall.
Tomorrow morning at 09:30am we have 2 key releases. Firstly the Unemployment figures are released. If the number is 7.2% or higher, then expect the Pound to fall. If it's lower than this, then the Pound will likely rise in value.
At the same time, the BoE releases it's minutes which show how they voted, and what was discussed, in their recent meeting to hold interest rates. Much like Carney's speech, we're looking for hints as to their policy on interest rates and growth. Positive comments will cause Sterling to rise. We then have the Budget at 12.30pm. While this will generate the most headlines in the news, I think it will have little impact on exchange rates as I don't expect any surprises in terms of the UK economy.
So does this mean the Pound/Euro rate will go higher or lower?
Unfortunately it's impossible to predict which way the market will go. What I can do however is give my views on what's happening to help you make an informed decision on when to fix a rate. My personal view is that we will see the rate recover tomorrow. It's dipped for several days in a row now, falling from recent highs of €1.22 down to €1.19. The UK economy is still fundamentally strong, so I think the figures tomorrow will support this view, and I expect rates to be sat back at €1.20 by the end of this week. We'll have to wait and see whether I'm right or not! I don't expect it to break through €1.20 for some time though, as it's a key resistance level.
Having a good knowledge of the market can save you thousands it you need to buy or sell currency at the best rate. If I had to convert Euros to Pounds I would want to move quickly to take advantage of the current rate - it's the best it's been all year.
If I was buying Euros, I would probably hold off to see what effect tomorrows data will have. I wouldn't want to risk losing out though, so I would do one of two things. I would either hedge my bets and secure half of my currency now, allowing me to take a risk on the other half. This reduces exposure to the market by 50%, but still allows you to take advantage of any rise.
Alternatively, I would place a Stop Loss order, which lets you place a limit below which your exchange rate is fixed - €1.18 for example. In this way you can still take advantage of any gains in the rate, but have a safety net should the market keep dropping. Find out more about the rates and service I offer I can help with market knowledge, various contract types, and can source exchange rates that are significantly better than the banks usually offer, sometimes by as much as 4% or 5%. If you need to convert currency, then it will do you no harm to contact me for a quote to compare. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm UK time.
Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Monday 17th March 2014 Good afternoon everybody. The UK has been basking in unseasonable sunshine over the weekend, however Sterling has remained firmly in the shade. We have seen the Pound drop further today against the Euro and other currencies, ahead of what I think will be a key week for UK economic data releases, and therefore Sterling exchange rates.
Pound/Euro has fallen to 1.1940. Pound/Dollar remains in the mid $1.66’s. In today’s report I am going to run over the week’s economic data and how it might affect exchange rates. There are lots of very important releases this week that will affect the Pound, including a Bank of England report, the latest Unemployment data, and George Osborne's budget just to name a few.- Will the Pound fall further?
- Could it bounce back?
- How to know when to fix a rate?
- Do you want to get the best exchange rates?
The below data will determine the answers to these questions, so read on to find out more about how this week could affect you getting the best foreign exchange currency rates. If you need to to buy or sell currency and want to get the best exchange rates, then you can get in touch with me for a free quote by clicking below. Contact me to discuss your currency requirement in detail. This weeks economic data releases that could affect exchange rates Monday 17th March 2014 Today has been relatively quiet data wise, with only some EU inflation data released earlier this morning. The numbers were not that different to the forecast, and so didn’t affect GBP/EUR rates too much. Tuesday 18th March 2014 GBP/EUR could be affected by the EU ZEW survey at 10am. Basically this measures economic sentiment and how investors see the economy. A high reading could strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower. GBP/USD could also be choppy today, as we have a raft of inflation data from the USA at lunchtime. At 17:45pm there is a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney. This could be very important. It’s impossible to know whether he will be upbeat and positive about the economy, but if he is it could cause the Pound to rise. Many think they he wants the Pound lower however, in order to help UK exports. So he may use this opportunity to talk the Pound down which would cause exchange rates to fall also. Wednesday 19th March 2014 The most important day of the week for the Pound in my opinion. Firstly we have all the latest unemployment figures. I expect the figure to be at 7.2%. Lower than this would cause the Pound to rise, and vice versa. Along with unemployment we also have the latest BoE minutes which will show what was discussed and how they voted in their recent decision to hold interest rates. The key will be whether this report hints at a rate cut early next year or not, and this report is likely to affect Sterling one way or the other. At 12:30pm chancellor George Osborne delivers the budget report, so just how could the budget affect exchange rates? The last few haven’t really affected the value of the Pound at all, but it all depends what he says. As we’re getting closer to an election, I expect some positive noises, but nothing that will really surprise the markets, so it’s the unemployment and BoE data today that you want to keep your eye on. Late in the afternoon the USA has an interest rate decision and a press conference, so GBP/USD may also be affected today. Thursday 20th March 2014 After yesterday’s incredibly busy day, things settle down a little. There is nothing of note from the UK or EU, but the USA does have some manufacturing data and a bank stress test in the afternoon. Friday 21st March 2014 The latest UK Public sector borrowing figures are released today and is expected to come in at around £7.8bn. As always, if the number differs from this then the Pound may rise or fall accordingly. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm Mon-Fri. Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Wednesday 12th March 2014 The Pound/Euro exchange rate has continued to fall since my post last week, and has fallen below the €1.20 level for the first time this year. Several weeks ago I warned that there was a good chance the rate was about to drop, and that is what we have seen. In today’s post I will analyse the reasons for the drop, go over what options are available to protect against rates moving against you, and look at what other economic data is due this week that could affect rates. Pound/Euro drops below €1.20For the first time this year, GBP/EUR rates have fallen back into the €1.19’s. Only a few weeks ago we were at highs of €1.22+. The rate started to decline last week when the ECB president Mario Draghi gave a very positive press conference about the Eurozone economy, as I outlined in a recent post. Since then, industrial production figures from the UK and EU have caused the exchange rate to drop further. The UK released its figures yesterday, and as the number was worse than expected Sterling fell in value. This morning the EU released its industrial production figures, and they were better than expected. This caused the Euro to rise in value and become more expensive to buy, and that’s the reason GBP/EUR rates have dipped into the €1.19’s. This is the lowest it has been all year: Will rates drop further, or bounce back? It’s impossible to predict of course, but my view is in the medium term we will see rates climb back above €1.20 again within a month or two. For those that need to buy Euros, much depends on how much time you have to play with. If you need to secure your currency soon, it may be wise to fix a rate sooner rather than later to protect against it dropping any further. If you have some time to play with, then you could gamble on rates recovering, however it is always wise to place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to protect you against rates dropping further. If you need to convert Euros back to Pounds, then the current levels are the best they’ve been all year. I do believe we will see the rate in the mid €1.20’s again later this year, so those with a EUR/GBP requirement may wish to lock in a rate sooner rather than later while we have seen a move in your favour. Looking for the best foreign exchange rate? Get in touch to discuss What could affect exchange rates this week? Pound/Euro - Other than the Industrial Production data I mentioned above, it’s been a very quiet week for data releases so far. Tomorrow (Thursday) should be a little more interesting with a BoE inflation report and House price data for the UK. Strong numbers could push rates above €1.20 again. We also have various inflation figures from the Eurozone tomorrow – if low, then the Euro could weaken off which would also cause rates to rise. Friday see’s UK Trade Balance data, and the latest Employment numbers from the EU. Pound/US Dollar – In addition to the UK data mentioned above, the US releases Jobless data, Trade Balance numbers and Retail Sales on Thursday, along with inflationary numbers on Friday. These figures could affect the GBP/USD rate. Pound/Australian Dollar – We will see the latest Australian Employment figures overnight. The GBP/AUD is very attractive at the moment, and if the figures are better than expected, we could see a slight dent in the Pound/Aussie rate. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Thursday 6th March 2014 As I predicted in my post yesterday, Pound/Euro rates have fallen away after the European Central Bank did not cut their interest rate, and gave no hint that it would be doing so anytime soon. You can read his full statement here. As you can see from the chart below, rates started falling at 13:30pm when the ECB president Mario Draghi began his press conference. So why exactly have GBP/EUR exchange rates fallen? It’s all to do with the fact interest rates have a key effect on the value of a currency. Higher interest rates attract investment, strengthening a currency. Lower interest rates weaken a currency due to the lower return on offer. Data in recent weeks had shown that Eurozone inflation was at 0.8%, well below the ECB's 2% target which has prompted deflation worries. To combat deflation, many thought the ECB would have to cut interest rates. The rumour of this started to get priced into the market, weakening the Euro and pushing GBP/EUR rates up to €1.22 in the last week.In today’s press conference Draghi said that “We saw our baseline by and large confirmed," he said. "There is a continuation of a modest recovery." The projections for Eurozone growth in 2014 was raised slightly from 1.1% to 1.2%. The bank also expects a gradual increase in growth to 1.5% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016. So because it’s now clear the ECB won’t be cutting rates any time soon, the Euro weakness that had been priced into the market was reversed, causing the Euro to gain strength and become more expensive to purchase. This is why rates have fallen from €1.22 to below €1.21.Will the exchange rate recover? It’s impossible to predict. In recent months, when rates have dropped we have seen them bounce back again within a few days. This could be the case again. If so, those of you that need to sell Euros to Pounds should consider taking advantage of the 1% move in your favour. For those needing to buy Euros of course, the rate has worsened for you today. We may or may not see it bounce back, so placing a Stop Loss order is a good strategy in the current climate. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Wednesday 5th March 2014 We started this week with some volatility in the currency markets due to the tensions in Ukraine. This has now eased somewhat, and a sense of calm returned, with the United States and Russia set to hold talks on easing East-West tension in Ukraine. This morning we had some UK data that showed the UK service sector continued to "expand strongly" with job creation at its fastest pace for four months. The survey also found that confidence in the economic outlook rose to its highest since September 2009. This set the day for the Pound, which has steadily risen throughout today as you can see from the chart below. At the time of writing Pound/Euro rates have risen to 1.2177 and Pound/Dollar is back above 1.67. Central Bank decisions tomorrow could affect Pound/EuroTomorrow we will see the latest decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) with regards to interest rates and quantitative easing. I don’t expect any change in policy from the BoE, but the ECB could make moves that may alter the GBP/EUR rate. 
I think there is a small chance that they may cut the deposit rate, which would weaken the Euro pushing GBP/EUR rates higher. This is due to their latest inflation numbers indicating a cut is needed. I also think today’s rise in Pound/Euro rates is in anticipation of a rate cut. Even if they don’t actually cut the rate, at 13:30pm, 45 minutes after the decision, the ECB president Mario Draghi will give a press conference, and any comments he makes could well alter the value of the Euro. If he hints at rates being cut at future meetings, again we may see Pound/Euro rates climb further. However there is also the chance that there will be no cut, and no hint of a cut. In this scenario I would expect exchange rates to drop away, because today’s gains are partly due to the chance of a cut being priced into the market in advance. Are you looking for the best Pound/Euro rates? 
The current exchange rate is still very close to the best it’s been in over a year, but we are still failing to see rates climb higher than their peak of last month. So it’s a great time to need to buy Euros and if I needed to buy the single currency I personally wouldn’t take the risk in holding out for much more, as I think there is much more to lose than there is to gain. If you need to buy Euros and would like to achieve the best rates of exchange, get in touch with me today for a free quote. I can source you rates of exchange up to 5% better than banks or other brokers may offer you, so it’s a good idea to compare what I can offer you. Buying other currencies such as USD, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, ZAR 
I can trade most of the major currencies around the world, at excellent rates of exchange. If you need to convert funds to another currency, I can provide you a quote to compare with your bank of existing broker. Click here to send me a free enquiry. Converting funds back into Sterling Perhaps you have sold a property overseas and repatriate the funds to the UK in Pounds. You may be an international business that takes payments in Euros that need converting back to Pounds. Whatever your currency requirements, I can help you both with achieving commercial exchange rates, and discussing your options so you can make an informed choice on when to place your trade. Regardless of the exact conversion you need to perform, I can help you. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today, and find out more about the rates and service I offer. I have worked as a foreign exchange broker for over 8 years, and have extensive experience. The company I represent are fully authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority, so you can be safe in the knowledge your funds are safe. To find out more about the full currency service I provide, click here to send me an enquiry. - Alternatively you can call me directly
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Monday 3rd March 2014 It’s been relatively quiet since my last post, and today hasn’t seen much economic data that has affected exchange rates. We have not seen the Pound make any further gains, and we currently have GBP/EUR rates around the 1.2140 mark, and GBP/USD rates a little above $1.67. In today’s post, I will have a look at upcoming events this week that I think will have an impact on rates, including economic data releases and the current instability in Ukraine. Instability in Ukraine to affect exchange rates 
There are various things that affect exchange rates. Economic data is the main one, and in a moment I’ll analyse what we have due to be released this week that I think will move FX rates. Other things that can affect currency rates are natural disasters like floods and droughts. Political events like elections and new policies. Finally terrorism/instability and acts of war can also have an impact. Dominating the headlines at the moment are events in Ukraine. How could this affect exchange rates? Let’s start with the obvious factor – how has it affected the Russian Rouble? I can’t actually trade the rouble, but it’s a good place to start to explain the effects of the current situation. Russia's rouble has fallen to a fresh all-time low against both the dollar and the euro after the political turmoil in Ukraine intensified. So the instability there has weakened their currency. 
Further afield, the unstable situation is likely to affect all major currencies. Due to the uncertainty it’s creating, it will likely mean the global investors seek safety. This may mean that perceived riskier currencies can weaken, and safe haven currencies can strengthen. Safe haven currencies like the US Dollar and Swiss France therefore could gain strength and become more expensive to buy. Risky currencies like AUD, NZD, ZAR for example could weaken and become cheaper to buy. Closer to home, we could see the Pound weaken on the back of the instability, as investors sell it to move to the safety of the US Dollar while geo political negotiations take place. If you need to buy or sell currency, then you can contact me to discuss your options for free, without obligating you in any way. Click here to discuss your currency requirement with me for free. This weeks scheduled economic data releases that could affect rates Monday 3rd March 2014 It’s been relatively quiet today we did have some slightly worse than expected UK data this morning. This afternoon we say some better than expected US data that temporarily caused GBP/USD rates to drop away. Tuesday 4th March 2014 Again a quiet day in terms of data releases. The only UK data of note is construction data released at 09:30am. Most information today is from Australia – an interest rate decision followed by a statement from the RBA. Wednesday 5th March 2014 There is a release of interest from the UK today, an inflation report at 10am that could dictate future interest rate movements and therefore could affect Sterling exchange rates. Elsewhere, the Eurozone has a raft of releases today – Inflation data, Retail Sales and Gross Domestic Product. All of these will give a good idea how the EU economy is preforming and if the numbers are worse than expected we may see the Euro weaken in value. Elsewhere, we have an interest rate decision from Canada followed by a statement from the Bank of Canada. In the United States we see the latest mortgage approval numbers and employment figures. Thursday 6th March 2014 It’s the first Thursday in the month, so we will see the Bank of England and European Central Bank announce their decision on interest rates at 12:00pm and 12:45pm respectively. I expect no chance from either; however comments that follow the decision could have an impact on exchange rates. If there are hints of a rate cut in the EU, Pound/Euro rates may rise. If the BoE however hint that a rate change in the UK is a long way off, expect the Pound to fall in value. Elsewhere today we have Trade Balance and Retail Sales data from Australia, and Jobless Claims from the United States. All in all a busy day so I do expect some volatility in FX rates today. Friday 7th March 2014 We end the week across the pond – Canada releases unemployment data, and the USA has its latest Trade Balance figures, along with Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30pm. This is usually quite different to the forecast number, so expect a choppy day for GBP/USD rates today. There is nothing of note from the UK or EU.
Would you like to achieve the best exchange rates? I can offer exchange rates very close to the ‘mid-market’ rate you see published on this site, which is up to 5% better than your bank can offer you. In addition to exceptional rates of exchange, I can provide a consultative service which allows you to discuss your requirement with me over the phone. In this way you can discover all the options available to you such as Forward contracts and Stop Loss orders, and make an informed choice with regards to when to fix your exchange rate. Getting in touch costs you nothing, doesn’t obligate you in any way, and the savings you make could be very considerable indeed. Click here to make a free enquiry with me today.
Alastair Archbold
There are lots of economic data releases this week that could affect exchange rates, so as usual for a Monday I am going to list what I think are the most important releases, and analyse how this could affect the currency markets. 
