Monday 30th December 2013 Welcome back, and I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas! Pound/Euro rates have fallen a little today, from €1.20 down to €1.1940 at the time of writing. For something a little different, in today’s post I am going to take a retrospective look at what has happened with key currency pairs throughout 2013, including Pound/Euro. I will explain what has happened with exchange rates and what caused them to move.I will also take a view on what the exchange rate forecast is for 2014, so anyone with a currency requirement in the next 12 months should find this useful. Remember I don't just write about the markets - I am a senior currency broker for one of the UK's leading currency brokerages, and can help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks will offer you, potentially saving you thousands of Pounds. I have 8 years experience in the industry, so if you need to the best exchange rates, take advantage of my knowledge by getting in touch for a free chat about exchange rates. So read on to see what the future holds for your exchange rate, and to find out more about the services I offer, send me a free enquiry by clicking here. Pound/Euro in 2013, and the forecast for 2014It has been a year of mixed fortunes for Sterling/Euro rates, but as 2013 comes to a close rates remain close to the best they have been all year. 
We started the year very strongly with rates above €1.20. As the year progressed however, rates fell steadily for the first part of the year, dropping as low as 1.15. This was due to the UK’s ongoing Quantitative Easing programme, and concerns over how well the economy was growing. 
In the summer the Pounds’ fortunes were reversed, and the UK economic recovery really took hold, and rates started to rise again. Part of the gains were due to the improving economy picture in the UK, including better growth figures and falling unemployment.
The other factor in the Pounds gains was when Mark Carney took over the helm of the Bank of England. When he did so, his ‘Forward Guidance’ approach and general positivity about UK growth gave investors’ confidence. As unemployment continues to fall, it’s likely that interest rates may start to rise in the UK, and that has also given the Pound strength helping rates rise.
So where will Pound/Euro go in 2014? Well if things continue to improve and unemployment keeps dropping, I think the Pound could break above €1.20 and get to the mid €1.25’s in 2014. This isn’t a given however, as if the exchange rate gets too high, we may well see the Bank of England move to devalue Sterling. They would do this as if the rate gets too high, it would make exports from the UK less attractive, so for this reason we might not see rates get much above €1.20.
If you need to buy or sell Euros in 2014, then contact me for a free consultation on your options, to make sure you make the most of your currency transaction.
Pound/US Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
It’s a similar story driven by the UK economy. Rates fell for the first part of the year, and then recovered and currently sit near the best in 2 years. Part of this is due to the same reasons I have outlined above with regards to the UK economy.
The other factor is that the US is now starting to wind up their Quantitative Easing programme. This has given investors more confidence in the Global economy, and so the US ‘safe haven’ Dollar has started to weaken, making it cheaper to buy.
In 2014 this currency pair is hard to forecast due to its safe haven status. On the one hand, a recovering UK economy would mean rates rising. However as the US economy is also starting to improve, this could give strength to the Dollar and bring rates back down into the $1.50’s, which many forecasts I read are now suggesting.
So if you have Dollar requirements, buying or selling, in 2014, it’s important you know all your options and have a clear understanding of what may move the rate. Click here to get in touch with me to discuss your requirements and make sure you’re well placed to get the best possible rate.
Pound/Australian Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
This currency pair earlier in the year was at its lowest in decades, but in recent months has risen again and is currently sitting at its highest in nearly 4 years! So what has been going on?
Well the reason it was so low is due to China. Australia has a huge mining industry, and China buy lots of raw materials from Australia. This huge demand from China had caused the Aussie Dollar to become incredibly strong, and therefore expensive to buy – this is why rates were very low earlier in the year.
However China’s economy is now growing at a much slower rate and this means less demand for Australian raw materials. As such, the AUD has weakened quite a bit, and helped along by the strengthening pound we now see the best rates for many years. The wildfires in the Country also harmed its agricultural industry, further weakening the currency. If you have an AUD requirement, click here to find out what I can offer.
Get in touch today to get the best exchange rates. 
I can trade most major international currencies, and the rates I can offer you can be up to 5% better than banks can offer. The savings can be considerable, so if you will have a requirement to buy or sell currency in 2014, get in touch with me to see how I can assist you.
In addition to better rates, I can talk over what is moving the exchange rate, and what factors may influence it in 2014. In this way you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and of course by using my services, the rate you get when you decide to move ahead is much better than your bank will offer.
In 2013 I have helped hundreds of clients save tens of thousands of Pounds by getting better rates of exchange. It costs nothing to make an enquiry and get a quote to compare with your bank, so click below to find out more about my service.Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
I hope regular and new readers alike have found my posts useful, and I look forward to continuing providing an insight into exchange rates throughout 2014. I would also like to everyone a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Alastair Archbold
Friday 20th December 2014 This will be my last post for a week, and I’ll be back in action on Monday the 30th of December. With regards to exchange rates, Sterling remains strong after figures showed the UK economy is growing faster than previously estimated. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product was up 0.8%; however it revised its growth figures for earlier quarters. This means the estimated annual growth rate has now risen from 1.5% to 1.9%, a revision that has surprised economists. Sterling currently sits at €1.1955 vs the Euro and $1.6377 vs the US Dollar. In other UK economic news, ONS data showed that Britain's current account deficit - the difference between the money received from exports and imports - widened sharply in the third quarter to £20.7bn, up from £6.2bn in the second quarter. This countered any gains the growth figures would have caused, and so there has not been much volatility in exchange rates. So that’s it from me for a while. I hope everybody has a lovely Christmas, and I will be back with more currency news on exchange rates on the 30th December. Remember if you are looking for the best exchange rates, I can help you source levels up to 5% better than banks can offer. You can click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry and one of my colleagues can get in touch to discuss your requirement and explain the service we offer. Once again a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 18th December 2013 In my last post I outlined the data this week that I thought would have an impact on exchange rates. I pointed out that today (Wednesday) would likely cause changes in currency rates due to some key data including Unemployment and the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. Unemployment was lower than expected pushing the Pound higher, but comments from the Bank of England threaten to put the brakes on the Pounds rise. In today’s post I’m going to take a detailed look at what has happened, and what it means for the exchange rate forecast. UK unemployment falls, Sterling rises. The UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed this morning. The market expected a figure of 7.6%, however the actual number came in at 7.4%; the lowest rate since February 2009. As a result, the Pound has risen against the Euro by 1 cent to €1.1915, and also by a cent against the US Dollar to $1.64. As the chart above shows, the news gave Sterling a boost and caused exchange rates to rise, as I predicted would be the case on Monday. So why exactly did the Pound gain? This 7.4% rate compares with a figure of 7.6% for the three months to September, and is below the rate analysts had expected. The Bank of England has said it will not consider raising interest rates from their record low of 0.5% until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, so the fact that we are getting closer to the 7% target means interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than expected. Higher rates of interest attract investment due to the higher return, and this means demand for Sterling causing it to rise in value, and in turn push exchange rates up. However, the BoE governor Mark Carney has said an interest rate increase is not guaranteed even when unemployment falls to this level. Indeed as we will see in a moment, the BoE could even move to weaken the Pound in the coming months.Click here to get a quote BoE say that Sterling strength not good for the UK 
So the Pound is strong, exchange rates are rising, the economy is growing, so all is well right? Not necessarily. Sterling's recent strength risks derailing Britain's recovery and could jeopardise attempts to rebalance the economy, the Bank of England said this morning. The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said while sterling's gains over the last 4 weeks reflected a stronger economic outlook, further rises could harm export growth. You can read the full minutes yourself by clicking here. Half our exports go to the Eurozone and so if the Pound gets much stronger, our goods become more expensive and so our recovery could start to falter. "Any further substantial appreciation of sterling would pose additional risks to the balance of demand growth and to the recovery," minutes from the Bank's December meeting showed. Sterling is at a five year high on a trade-weighted basis, where it is measured against a basket of other currencies, and the Bank said that for Britain's "burgeoning" economic recovery to be sustainable, it needs to rely more on business investment and exports and less on consumer demand. So you have been warned; this is the clearest signal I have seen yet that the BoE may move to devalue Sterling as they did in the summer of 2012 when rates fell from €1.30 to €1.14. Will the Pound go up or down against the Euro? Summary - when should you fix your rate?
On the one hand the UK economy is good, the Pound is gaining value, and this could continue should economic numbers continue to impress. This would be good news for those that need to buy Euros, but not so good for those looking to convert back into Sterling. On the other hand, if the Pound gets much stronger, might we see the Bank of England move to devalue the Pound due to the reasons I have outlined above? This would lower exchange rates, meaning it could be wise to fix a rate soon while it’s on a high. There is no way to predict what will happen, but if you need to make the most of your exchange, having a good currency broker on your side can make a huge difference. In addition to helping you achieve rates up to 5% better than banks can offer, I can explain various options and contract types that I have available, that can protect you against rates moving against you, while still allowing you to take advantage if the market moves in your favour. The first step is to send me a free enquiry by clicking below. I can then have a brief discussion regarding your requirements, explain the options you have, and enable you to make an informed decision on when to fix your rate of exchange. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 16th December 2013 Good afternoon. It's been a quiet start to the week, and since my last post Pound/Euro rates remain in the mid €1.18's, and Pound/Dollar rates around $1.63. This week will be key to whether rates continue dropping as they have in the last week, or resume the trend of the last few months which has seen the Pound rise against other currencies.
Sterling has been one of the currency market's surprises since the summer, having risen consistently over the last 6 months. As I've been explaining over the last few weeks, really impressive economic data has strengthened the Pound, and it's also been helped by the view that interest rates may rise earlier than previously expected. This week in my view will be key to the direction Sterling takes over the next month, as we have some key economic data releases including inflation data on Tuesday, and minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and jobless data on Wednesday, followed by Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday.
So in today's post I'm going to list all the things to look out for which may cause volatility in exchange rates this week. Looking for excellent exchange rates? This weeks economic data releases that may affect exchange rates Monday 16th December
This morning we saw EU Manufacturing and inflation numbers, which were better than expected. This caused the Euro to strengthen and pulled GBP/EUR rates lower. This afternoon we have Speech by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, which may cause further volatility in Euro rates. Tuesday 17th DecemberStarting in Australian we have the RBA minutes and a speech which may cause changes in GBP/AUD rates. Closer to home, at 09:30am we have a raft of inflation data. This is linked to future interest rate movements so could change Sterling’s value. In the Eurozone we also have a raft of inflation numbers in addition to some surveys that look at Economic Sentiment. Over in the States we have more inflation numbers and house price data. Wednesday 18th DecemberThis is the key day for the Pound. At 09:30am we have the minutes to the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates and Quantitative Easing. The minutes show what was discussed and often cause exchange rates to fluctuate. We also have the latest unemployment figures. This is key as future interest rate movements have been linked to a drop in Unemployment figures, so if the number is any lower than 7.6% expect the Pound to make gains, and vice versa. The rest of today’s data is from the USA – Building Permits, Mortgage Approvals, an Interest Rate decision, and economic projections from the FED. So all in all, a key day for both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates. Thursday 19th DecemberUK data today is Retail Sales. This is seen as a good overall barometer of economic activity so it could be another choppy day for Sterling. There are no EU releases of any significance, but over in the USA in the afternoon we do have Jobless Numbers, and Home Sales figures. Friday 20th DecemberAnother very important day for the Pound. We have a measure of consumer confidence, but I think the main event will be the latest Gross Domestic Product figures released at 09:30am. GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. This is key as it will indicate whether the UK recovery is sustained, so could push rates higher or lower depending if the number is higher or lower than the expected +0.8%. Elsewhere, GDP numbers from the states are released at 13:30pm, and a Consumer Confidence measure for the Eurozone at 3pm. Looking for the best exchange rates? Make a free enquiry today If you are looking for the best exchange rates, and would like to discuss how the above data could affect the exchange rate you're interested in, then send me a free enquiry today. I offer a free consultation service where I can discuss your particular requirements, and explain what could move the rate for or against you. This can help you to decide when to fix an exchange rate.
In addition to taking advantage of my market knowledge, I can also help you source excellent commercial exchange rates, that are up to 5% better than banks can offer.
If you have a requirement to convert a large volume of funds, the savings can be considerable. Find out how much you could save by clicking below and sending me a free enquiry now.
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now.
Wednesday 11th December 2013 Sterling has been falling today, and exchange rates have dropped further from recent highs. In today’s post I’m going to examine the reasons why the Pound has dropped, and also give my views on where rates may head for the remainder of 2013. If you need to buy or sell currency in the near future, you're in the right place, so read on... On Tuesday we actually saw rates rise slightly on the back of Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s comments on the economy, but the gains were short lived, and today rates have steadily dropped. So before we look at the reasons for today’s fall, let’s examine what happened yesterday. Pound rises on Tuesday, but not for long... 
The Pound hit a 2.5 year high against the US Dollar and also rose against the Euro yesterday, after upbeat comments from the Bank of England, and also strong house price data. These were taken as signs that interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than previously thought. Higher interest rates strengthen a currency as it provides a better return for investors. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's commented earlier in the week saying that the economic recovery is showing signs it can reach self-sustaining momentum, although he also said monetary policy will need to remain exceptionally loose for some time. This caused slight gains through trading on Tuesday. Also recent data out of the UK showed slightly stronger than forecast industrial output data while the National Institute of Economic and Social Research released figures yesterday showing the economy grew an estimated 0.8 percent. Why has Sterling fallen against the Euro today? As you can see from today’s chart below, the Pound has fallen against the Euro and has dropped into the €1.18's; several points down from the highs of €1.21 we saw last week. So why was this if UK economic news is good?There are a number of reasons the Pound has fallen today. We haven’t seen any significant economic data releases, and I thought today would actually be quite uneventful. However we have seen UK gilt yields fall which has caused the Pound to fall slightly against other currencies. 
The main reason GBP/EUR rates have fallen however is due to events in the Eurozone. I have read reports today that there is very tight liquidity in the euro zone, and European banks have been repatriating funds to shore up their capital bases for an ECB asset quality review. What this means is EU banks have been buying Euros, and the demand has strengthened the single currency, making it more expensive to buy. Also the European Central Bank's reluctance to cut interest rates any further has also helped the euro make gains, pulling GBP/EUR rates down into the €1.18's.So what next? Will the Pound fall further or recover to €1.20? 
I personally feel this is a temporary dip. The reason rate were as high as €1.21 was speculation on interest rate cuts in the EU, that now seem much less likely, and the exchange rate has corrected itself accordingly. In the medium term I expect rates to break back above €1.20 although possibly not until next year. This of course depends on continued positive economic news from Britain. So for those needing to convert Euros to Pounds, I would consider taking advantage of the 2 cent move in your favour. You can fix the current rate for up to 2 years even if you don’t need your currency for some time. If you are buying Euros, I expect rates to recover. However this may take some time, so whether to hang on or not depends on how long you have until you need your Euros. It took repeated attacks on the €1.20 level before we broke through last time, and I expect the same. A Stop Loss order is useful in these conditions. If you have found my insight useful and are looking for the best rates, or want to discuss which way the rate is moving and would like to discuss how I can assist you, click below to send me a free enquiry today. I provide exchange rates up to 5% better than banks can offer, and have over 8 years’ experience in the currency markets. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. Alastair Archbold
Monday 9th December 2013 Today has been relatively quiet, and not much has changed since my last post in which I outlined why Pound/Euro rates had fallen below €1.20. On Friday last week we did see the Pound/Euro rate slip back a little further, and today GBP/EUR rates are stable in the mid €1.19’s, and Pound/Dollar rates just below $1.64. Later today we have a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney and it will be interesting to see how his comments affect the Pound. As the market is quite stable, today I am going to list the week’s economic data releases that I think will have an effect on exchange rates. - Are you interested to know how the below data could affect your currency requirement?
- Do you have an upcoming transfer to make?
- Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to discuss what is happening with exchange rates?
- Would like to know whether to fix a rate now or hold off?
Make a free enquiry with me today and have a free consultation. I can discuss your requirement in detail, explain what is happening with exchange rates, and help you to decide when to go ahead and fix your rate. When you want to go ahead and fix a rate I can help you achieve commercial levels that are up to 5% better than banks and other financial institutions can offer. Click here to send me a free enquiry This weeks economic data that could affect exchange rates Monday 9th December 2013 This morning we had some minor EU data from Greece along with EU investor confidence data and GDP numbers from Portugal. The numbers were slightly worse than forecast, but had no real effect on exchange rates. The main factor for exchange rates today will be a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Usually his comments are positive and so send the Pound higher, so it will be interesting to see the effect of his words at 17:15pm this afternoon. Tuesday 10th December 2013 There are various UK releases today that could affect Sterling: House Prices, Trade Balance figures, Industrial & Manufacturing Production are all released at 09:30am. Later in the afternoon we have a GDP estimate by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). In my view the GDP estimate could cause some volatility with Pound/Euro rates. Elsewhere we have a speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. The last time he spoke his comments were positive for the Euro causing Pound/Euro rates to drop away. Wednesday 11th December 2013 There are no UK releases of note today so I expect a quiet day on the currency markets. The only data of note is an interest rate decision and press conference from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which could cause some volatility for GBP/NZD rates. There is also a budget statement from the Federal Reserve that could cause changes in the GBP/USD rate. Thursday 12th December 2013 Unusually for a Thursday it’s quite quiet today with nothing of note from the UK. We do have some EU Industrial Production numbers and a monthly report from the ECB. Most data today is from the United States: Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, and Business inventories. Friday 13th December 2013 Relatively quiet again, with the only UK data of note a speech by BoE member Mr Dale; his comments could cause volatility with the Pound. Elsewhere we have some EU employment figures, and some inflation data from the United States. Looking for the best exchange rates? Click here to send me a free enquiryI look forward to hearing from you.
Alastair Archbold
Thursday 5th December 2013 In my recent post I outlined the week’s economic data that I thought would affect exchange rates. I had highlighted today (Thursday) as the most important day of the week for Pound/Euro rates, and indeed that has been the case as the recent highs have evaporated and rates are back below €1.20 again. So in today’s report: - Why have Pound/Euro rates dropped below €1.20
- Will rates go back up or drop further?
- Effect of Budget statement on exchange rates
- Central Bank Decisions from UK and Europe
- US economy grows faster than thought
Why have Pound/Euro rates dropped below €1.20? 
Today we saw rates drop from the recent highs of €1.21 down below €1.20 again, and this was due to comments made by the European Central Bank president. Before I touch on that, let’s look at the decisions from the Central Banks. The Bank of England has kept interest rates at a record low of 0.5%, despite signs that the UK economy is improving. The European Central Bank (ECB) also has kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.25%, following its surprise cut from 0.5% in November. Both these decisions were widely expected, and so had no real effect on exchange rates. What did have an impact however were the comments from the ECB president Mario Draghi in his press conference after the decision. ECB president Mario Draghi said the decision to keep the rate at its current level reflected the fact that the Eurozone’s economy remained "subdued". There was speculation he may again hint at cutting deposit rates. He seemed to pour cold water on this idea for the time being and as a result the Euro strengthened and become more expensive to purchase. A rate cut had been partially priced in to the value of the Euro, which was why it was so weak and available at €1.21 recently. You can clearly see from the chart the moment the press conference started and the rate dropping to €1.1940. Will it go back up? Will it drop back down? 
It’s impossible to predict market movements unfortunately so nobody can say. €1.20 is a key benchmark level however, so I can’t see it getting back through this level until further economic numbers are released that shed light on the relative economies of the UK and the Eurozone. It could move either way in the coming 6 months, so it’s important not to just watch and wait in the hope it will move in the direction you want it to. There are tools I provide such as Stop Loss orders, Limit Orders, and Forward contracts. All of these can help you take control of your currency requirement, and help you budget without your currency costing you more than necessary. How these work depend on whether you are buying currency, or converting it back to Sterling, but there are various options I can explain to you, which will help you make an informed decision on whether to fix a rate, or hang on in the hope things might get better. Send me a free enquiry and I can get in touch to discuss your specific requirements, and explain the options available to you. Effect of Budget statement on exchange rates 
Chancellor George Osborne has updated MPs on the state of the economy and the government's future plans in his Autumn Statement. There were some interesting things I the statement, but nothing that was really a surprise. You can read a full breakdown of the key points here on the BBC website. Today I’ll just run over what I think is important in terms of exchange rates. In a nutshell without boring you with all the figures (they can be found at the BBC link above) – growth forecasts have been revised up, and government borrowing has been revised down. This, if it proves to be true, should be good for Sterling in the long term. The news wasn’t much of a surprise however so didn’t really affect rates, and was overshadowed today by the ECB press conference was had a big impact on Pound/Euro rates. US economy grows faster than thought pushing GBP/USD lower 
The US economy grew at an annual pace of 3.6% in the third quarter of the year, up from an initial estimate of 2.8%, revised figures have shown. The growth rate was the fastest since the first quarter of 2012. This was much better than expected, and the other US data released today such as the latest unemployment numbers also impressed. The net result was a strengthening of the US Dollar, which was compounded further due to weakness in the Euro, and this has caused Pound/Dollar rates to drop from the recent 2 year high. Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls will be the next main data that I think will affect Pound/US Dollar rates. Are you looking for the best exchange rates? 
If you are looking for the best exchange rates, whether it’s buying Euros, converting Euros to Pounds, or indeed exchanging between any of the world’s major currencies, I would certainly suggest getting in touch with me. I can discuss your requirement, keep you up to date with which way rates are moving, and help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks can offer. I have helped thousands of personal and business clients with foreign exchange over the last 8 years. You can make a free enquiry without any obligation by following the link below. I look forward to hearing from you. Click here to send me a free enquiry. Alastair Archbold
Tuesday 3rd December 2013 This morning we saw unemployment numbers from Spain. Despite the market believing an extra 50,000 unemployed people, in fact there were only 2500. This was much better than expected and so strengthened the Euro, bringing GBP/EUR rates lower.
The dip was short lived however, when the UK fired off its Purchasing Managers construction data. This is important as it's a leading indicator of economic health. The number impressed and was better than forecast, and as the chart shows, the dip was reversed and Pound/Euro rates climbed back to €1.21.
This clearly illustrates how important economic data is, and how it can affect exchange rates. So below I have listed the remaining data due this week, and my thoughts on how it could affect your currency requirement.
This week’s economic data that could affect exchange rates.
Tuesday 3rd December
Today’s main data has already been released as outlined above. The rest of today is quiet, with only some minor economic optimism data from the United States.
Wednesday 4th December
In the UK today we will see the latest Halifax House Prices, but more importantly Purchasing Managers Index services data. Like Monday’s release, it’s an important economic indicator. The forecast is 62.1, so anything above this will cause the Pound to gain, and vice versa.
Also potentially affecting GBP/EUR rates will be today’s Euro data. They fire their first salvo with Services PMI, followed a little later by Retail Sales and a revised GDP figure. These growth figures will be important and could alter rates if the numbers differ from forecast. GDP is expected to be 0.1% and retail sales 0.2%.
Elsewhere Trade Balance data from the States, Home sales and manufacturing data could all affect the GBP/USD rate which is currently $1.64.
Thursday 5th December
The most important day of the week for Pound/Euro rates. We have the decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Interest Rates and Quantitative Easing. No change is expected, but both central banks will make statements after the decision, and these statements often hint at future policy which could then immediately affect exchange rates. Look for any hints of rates cuts by the ECB which could cause GBP/EUR to rise. We also have the Autumn statement by the chancellor, which could also affect the Pound if there are any surprises.
US Gross Domestic Product figures and Unemployment numbers will dictate the value of the US Dollar today, forecast at 3.0% and 328k respectively. As usual, numbers above this will cause GBP/USD to fall, numbers lower than this would cause rates to rise.
Friday 6th December
Quiet in the UK today with Consumer Inflation the only data of note, and I don’t expect it to have much of an impact. Of more importance will be French Trade Balance numbers and German Factory Orders, but GBP/EUR will probably still be moving on the central bank statements from Thursday.
I do expect a volatile day for GBP/USD rates however. We have lots of important numbers from the states: Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment, Earnings and Income data. The most interesting release will be the Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30pm. These are so difficult to forecast, the actual number is often very different to what’s expected. The forecast at the moment is 180,000 new jobs to have been created. More, GBP/USD will fall… less and expect GBP/USD to rise.
If you would like to discuss your currency requirement, have a free consultation.
Free consultation on your currency requirement
Hopefully today’s post has helped highlight how economic data can affect your exchange rate, and given you some things to look out for this week that might affect the currency you are interested in buying or selling.
I can offer you a free consultation over the telephone, to discuss your particular requirement and discuss the current exchange rates. I can also talk to you about data releases that might affect rates, and the different options you can consider when deciding when to fix your rate.
In addition when you decide to fix a rate, I can provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. You may be pleasantly surprised how good my rates are.
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.
Alastair Archbold
Monday 2nd December 2013 Good afternoon. Well in my post late on Friday I highlighted the spike in Pound/Euro rates. This actually continued over the weekend, and when I arrived on the trading floor at 08:00am this morning mid-market levels were at an astonishing €1.2100, which is a remarkable run for this currency pair. The question is, will it last...?Pound/Euro sustained above €1.20, for now...As you can see from the chart showing todays movements, the market opened at €1.21. The levels were not to be sustained for long however, and throughout the day we saw the Pounds gains becoming eroded, and exchange rates have slipped away throughout the day. 
The market is still above the €1.20 mark however. The fact it has broken through this level has surprised many in the market, myself included, who did not expect rates to break €1.20 this year. I did however state in a recent post that while I didn’t expect it to break through €1.20, if it did it would likely continue rising significantly above it, and that’s what we have seen happen.What will happen moving forwards depends on this week’s economic data releases. Now levels are above €1.20 I expect them to be supported at that level, unless we get any suprises with the week's economic data.In today’s post I’ll simply give a brief outline of different strategies you can consider if you are converting foreign currency and need the best rates. In tomorrow’s post, I’ll list the week’s economic data releases that I think will affect exchange rates this week. Click here to have a free consultation for your requirement. Do you need to buy Euros at the best rates? 
Rates are very good indeed, and the best they’ve been since January; however seem to rise before dropping back away.If I needed Euros I would place a Stop Loss order to fix a rate should it drop below a pre-agreed level. This means if rates continue to rise you can still take advantage of further gains, but not risk losing out on the 5% gain in rates we have seen in recent months. Click here to get a Pound/Euro quote Perhaps you want to maximise a Euro to Pound transfer? 
Rates have been steadily moving against you. It’s impossible to predict where things will go, so in the current climate a Stop Loss again is a very useful tool. This fixes your rate if it gets worse than a pre-agreed rate that you can decide, giving you some control over currency markets which are very volatile. I can also source Limit Orders, Forward Contracts, and Spot contracts at rates significantly better than banks and other financial institutions. Click here to get quote for selling Euros Other Currencies Sterling is currently at the best level in many years against lots of major currencies, including the US Dollar, Euro, and also the antipodean currencies such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. If you are looking for the best exchange rates for any major currency, or have a foreign currency you want to convert back to Sterling, then I can help you. In addition to the rates I can source that are up to 5% better than the banks, I have extensive knowledge of the currency markets, and various contract types that can protect you against rates moving the wrong way, and help you to budget. Very useful if you are buying or selling property abroad, or buy and sell goods in the Eurozone for example. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. I look forward to hearing from you.
Alastair Archbold
Friday 29th November 2013Good afternoon everyone. A quick update before the weekend to outline what's been happening with exchange rates, and in particular the Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast.
BoE Governor causes Pound to rise above €1.20
Yesterday the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, gave a speech. You can read a report here on the BBC website that outlines what he talked about. Most of the press has been reporting on the move of the 'Funding for Lending' scheme which has been moved from individuals to small business.
What we're interested in however is what effect his words had on exchange rates. Mr Carney's predecessor Mervyn King had a habit of 'talking down' the Pound to such an extent that usually as soon as he opened his mouth, Sterling fell before he had actually said anything!
Mr Carney in contrast seems to do exactly the opposite. In recent speeches his comments have been very UK positive and have therefore caused the Pound to rise. This is what we saw yesterday, and the Pound rose to over €1.20 again against the Euro, but this time rates remained just above this level all day on Thursday. What's happened today to Sterling exchange rates? 
Today, Sterling slipped from a 11-month high against the dollar and fell against the single currency as investors digested the Bank of England's surprise move to scale back stimulus for the housing sector. Initially, investors had concluded the Bank might be taking the first step towards tightening its ultra-loose monetary policy, and the pound rose. But some analysts said not using conventional monetary policy to curb housing prices meant interest rates could remain low for longer.However in the last few minutes, Pound/Euro has shot up to €1.2022 and Pound/Dollar has risen to $1.6364. I put this down to profit taking: as the European markets closed at 4pm a few minutes ago, investors wound up their positions ahead of the weekend, causing a spike in the value of the Pound:
"Boom!"
- So will these levels now be sustained against the Euro?
- Will rates drop back away as they have been doing over several weeks?
I'll be back in action on Monday with a full analysis and round up of the future forecasts for exchange rates.
In the meantime, if you're looking for the best exchange rates, or would simply like to discuss the current market to help you decide when to convert your funds, then send me a free enquiry. The rates I can help you achieve can be up to 5% better than banks and other financial institutions, so by getting in touch you can save yourself a considerable sum. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Have a great weekend.
Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 27th November 2013There has been some volatility on the currency markets this week, with the Pound initially losing value causing exchange rates to drop. This trend however was reversed today after some strong UK data has given strength back to Sterling, pushing exchange rates up against other currencies. In today’s report, I’ll take a look at what’s been happening and the forecast for Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar...- Bank of England takes dovish tone on UK economy
- UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.8%
- Pound/Euro forecast
- Pound/Dollar forecast
- Best Exchange Rates
Bank of England takes dovish tone on UK economy 
On Tuesday the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney delivered his latest Inflation report. It’s important because the BoE control interest rates, which have a big effect on the value of Sterling, and therefore exchange rates. The Bank has said it will not consider an interest rate rise until UK unemployment falls below 7%, a rate that many economists now believe could happen sooner rather than later. However Mr Carney poured a little cold water on this yesterday, when he said that the 7% is a "threshold, not a trigger". He said: "The exact timing of when that 7% threshold will be achieved is subject to uncertainty. We do our best to give our estimates of that uncertainty... One month's unemployment figures does not have a material change on those likelihoods." So while overall he was quite positive about the economy, these comments caused the Pound to fall to €1.19 vs. the Euro and $1.61 against the Dollar. We’ll look at each currency pair in more detail in a moment. UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.8% 
Before we look at the rate forecast, let’s review today’s data. This morning figures confirmed that UK growth is at 0.8%, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics. The figure of 0.8% confirms the economy is growing at the fastest pace for three years. Read more about this on the BBC website here.As the figure was as forecast, the immediate reaction was that the Pound fell. This was only momentary however, as clearly analysts quickly realised that while the number was as expected, it’s actually a very good number indeed! The UK is the fastest growing western economy at the moment, and so investors started to buy the Pound. This caused the Pound to rise, and recover its losses from earlier in the week. As I write this post, Pound/Euro is back at €1.20 and Pound/Dollar is at $1.63. So let’s take a detailed look at each currency pair. Contact me to find out more about getting the best currency rates. Pound/Euro forecastAs you can see from the chart showing this year’s movements, the rate is looking good. It’s the best it’s been since January, and settled at around the €1.20 level. Over the last few weeks we’ve seen rates reach this level only to drop back away, for reasons I explained in a recent post. I expect this trend to continue for the rest of the year, and while it’s impossible to forecast, I don’t expect rates to breach this level this year. They will eventually, when the UK ecostats convince investors and the BoE that interest rates may have to rise. So if you need to buy Euros, consider taking advantage of the current level. Euro sellers may wish to consider a Stop Loss Order and hope the market retracts down. Want the best rates to buy or sell Euros? Click here. Pound/Dollar forecastAgain the chart clearly illustrates how good the Pound/Dollar rate is at the moment.This is a 1 year chart, but rates haven’t been significantly above this for nearly 3 years! So again worth considering taking advantage of the current rates while they’re above $1.60. For Dollar sellers the direction is less clear, as we don’t know if or when the FED will start tapering their QE programme. Want the best rates to buy or sell Dollars? Click here. Best exchange rates 
If you are looking for the best rates for Euros, Dollars, or indeed any major world currency, then send me a free enquiry today.I am an expert foreign exchange, integrating market knowledge with a range of foreign currency contracts. I have great pride in the excellent rates of exchange I achieve for my clients, combined with exceptional customer service. Because I buy currency at wholesale prices, directly from the market, it enables me to pass on significant savings, often achieving up to a 5% better exchange rate than the banks. There are also no fees or commissions. So if the best exchange rates is something that is of interest, click below to find out more about what I can do for you. Click here to send me a free enquiry.Alastair Archbold
