Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 23rd January 2012
Good morning. As always for a Monday, today I will take a retrospective look at last weeks movements in the currency markets, and what this week may hold for the Pound Sterling Forecast against the Euro & US Dollar. Also included is a list of the most important data to watch our for that might affect rates this week.

In this week’s Report:

• Pound/Euro remains range bound at €1.20

• Sterling recovers against weaker US Dollar

• BoE Minutes could signal further QE in February

• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)


Sterling vs. Euro;

The start of the last week saw GBP/EUR rates trading around the 1.20 (Interbank) level as all eyes were still on the Euro zone. High UK unemployment figures and the hint of more Quantitative Easing could see a very volatile week ahead of us.













Tuesday’s key data showed a rise in unemployment within the UK and indicated that it had increased steadily through 2011. The number of Britons out of work hit its highest level in more than 17 years, but a much smaller than expected number of new benefit claims in December provided some hope that the labour market downturn may be levelling out.

With the UK government cutting hundreds of thousands of jobs as part of its five-year budget deficit reduction programme, unemployment is expected to keep rising. The private sector is picking up only some of the slack. "While the increase in headline unemployment this month is a negative sign, the strength of the claimant count measure provides evidence of some resilience in the labour market," said economists at Credit Suisse.

As the cost of living has continued to rise at more than twice the rate of underlying wage growth in the UK more pressure is put on households, hindering and slowing economic growth. The Nationwide have predicted that slowing inflation would help to ease the squeeze on household budgets and aid growth.

BOE minutes this week leave the door open on whether more Quantitative Easing will take place and what was and will be discussed in subsequent meetings. The last time QE was announced Sterling fell significantly and exchange rates dropped across the board. Due to the prediction of QE, it will be partly priced into the market prices already, and the EU debt crisis will also have an impact on the value of the Euro, Pound and US Dollar.

Do you need to buy or sell Euros? Click here to send me a free enquiry


Sterling vs. US Dollar;

The Pound started last week close to an 18-month low against the US dollar with the news that a handful of countries in the Eurozone had their credit ratings downgraded several days previously.













Britain’s economy has remained fairly stagnant over the past five months. A survey showed UK consumer confidence dropped close to its lowest level in seven years in December, adding to worries about a fragile UK economy. Recent weak UK data, including lower inflation numbers, have added to expectations the BoE will increase asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme next month. Caution will persist until news emerges from Greece, where the government and private bondholders are locked in negotiations about the size of any haircut on Greek debt.

This is the main reason that the dollar is so strong against the pound and the rates are sitting where they are. As stated above rates to buy Dollars are currently around an 18 month low, as the US currency appears very strong at the moment. This is nothing to do with any positive US economic data - it's simply the case that the USD is a safe haven currency, and with all the well-publicised problems in Europe and the UK, it's an attractive option at the moment.

The Pound pushed a little higher against the US Dollar at the end of the week, with gains after solid demand at a Spanish debt auction. Spain sold 6.61 billion euros of government bonds which was more than its announced target, in an auction that analysts said went well. This caused flows away from the US Dollar, weakening it and pushing rates up slightly, as the chart above shows.

US jobless claims released at the end of last week dropped to a new four-year low, which slightly dented the greenback’s safe-haven status and boosted the pound. The rates ended the week around 1.5520 on the interbank. This is a swing of around 1.5% throughout the week; meaning that you’re currency would have cost significantly more had you bought on Monday, instead of Friday. It is important to keep in touch with your account manager at the FCG so that they can give you the benefit of their experience and help you make the most of your currency.

Do you need to buy or sell US Dollars? Click here to send me a free enquiry.


Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – We have a very quiet start to the week, with no UK data of note. The only EU release is a measure of consumer confidence at 3pm. The other data is from Australia where we will see the latest measure of inflation.

Tuesday – Today is a little busier, with figures showing the latest UK Public Sector borrowing. In the Eurozone there are some inflation measures, and data showing Industrial New Orders. Across the pond we will see US Manufacturing data, and Canada releases Retail Sales which show how confident consumers are about the economy.

Wednesday – This will be the most important day of the week for Data. At 09:30am we will see the latest BoE minutes from their recent decision to hold rates and QE. These will show what was discussed, and who voted for what. Should this indicate further QE is likely next month Sterling could be affected. At the same time, UK GDP figures are released, which will show if the economy is growing, and at what pace. We also have the FOMC minutes from the USA, followed by an interest rate decision in both the USA and New Zealand.

Thursday – Today Germany releases its latest consumer confidence measures. In the USA there is a host of data including Jobless Claims & New Home Sales. New Zealand releases Trade Balance figures in the evening.

Friday – We end the week with Consumer Confidence figures for the UK, Money Supply data from the Eurozone, and the USA releases its latest GDP figures in addition to a measure of Consumer Sentiment.


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Getting the best exchange rates for your currency

Friday 20th January 2012
Good morning. The Pound pushed a little higher against the Euro and US Dollar yesterday, tracking gains in the euro versus the dollar after solid demand at a Spanish debt auction, but its rise was limited by weak consumer confidence data that added to concerns about the UK economy. Below shows how GBP/EUR and GBP/USD moved yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 18th January~











Good Demand at Spanish Bond Auction

At a bond auction yesterday, Spain sold 6.61 billion euros of government bonds which was more than its announced target, in an auction that analysts said went well. This caused the Pound to rise also due to it's links to the Eurozone, so despite some slight gains as shown by the chart, rates remain stuck around the €1.19 to €1.20 level. Analysts have said that the Euro's gains were likely to be limited as investors remain wary of any development that may cause the euro debt crisis to worsen significantly, with market players keeping a close watch on talks aimed at avoiding a messy Greek default.

For this reason, rates to buy and sell Euros remain around the €1.20 level where it has been for much of the week.

The news weakened the safe haven US Dollar slightly, making it cheaper to buy and pulling exchange rates up from the near 18 month low seen earlier in the week.

UK Data disappoints again, signalling more QE on the way

UK consumer confidence fell to pretty close to its lowest level in seven years last month, data showed yesterday. This has increased concerns over the fragile economy, and increases the risk of further Quantitative Easing next month. The last time QE was announced, Sterling fell significantly and exchange rates dropped across the board.

Of course due to the prediction of QE, it will be partly priced into the market prices already, and the EU debt crisis will also have an impact on the value of the Euro, Pound and US Dollar.

This is the latest is a run of poor economic data from the UK recently. Low inflation, and the number of Britons out of work at its highest in more than 17 years in November are all weighing on the Pound. UK GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2011 are due next week, with some market players bracing themselves for very low growth or even a contraction in the economy.

Today's Data

Today’s UK release is Retail Sales; a good indicator of general consumer confidence. In Canada we will see the latest inflation figures. US data comprises Home Sales.

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Mixed day for Sterling as Unemployment/IMF drive markets

Thursday 19th January 2012
Good morning. It was a mixed day in the currency markets yesterday. Initially poor UK unemployment pushed Sterling lower against the Euro. However, as reports suggested the International Monetary Fund was proposing to boost its lending resources, this supported the euro and riskier currencies, pushing the Pound up later in the day. Below shows how GBP/EUR and GBP/USD moved yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 18th January~











UK Unemployment figures disappoint

Figures released yesterday show that UK unemployment rose by 118,000 in the three months to November to 2.685 million. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the unemployment rate also rose to 8.4% from 8.3%, the highest since January 1996.

The numbers were slightly lower than analysts had forecast, and support the picture of a flat UK economy, with other data released on Wednesday showing average weekly earnings, including bonuses, grew at just 1.9%.

This pushed Sterling lower against other currencies as the Pound weakened.

IMF Bailout strengthens the Pound

Also yesterday, Bloomberg News reported that the IMF was planning a large expansion in its lending pool to safeguard the global economy against the worsening euro zone debt crisis. This supported riskier currencies, and caused both the Pound and the Euro to gain against other currencies. Also helping the Euro was a report that Italy was unlikely to default.

This was the main driver in exchange rates yesterday. The news meant investors were a little more confident in the Eurozone, and this caused the Dollar to weaken as money was moved away from the safe haven Dollar.

The net effect was Sterling/Dollar rates climbing, and Sterling/Euro rates climbing slightly. Euro rates didn't go up as much due to a strengthening of the Euro.

Emigrating to Australia?

Australia remains the top destinations for Brits emigrating abroad. Unfortunately the Aussie Dollar has been getting stronger and stronger in recent years, becoming more expensive to purchase. This is because they largely avoided the global recession and retain high interest rates relative to other countries.

Rates yesterday hit a new low, with rates briefly at their lowest in over 20 years. While this is not good news for anyone who has recently emigrated down under, those looking to bring AUD back to Sterling have not had it so good in a long time. Regardless if you need to buy or sell this currency, contact us today to discuss how we can protect you against rates moving against you.

Today's Data

Unusually for a Thursday, there is no UK data being released. The ECB will give a monthly report on the health of the EU economy, and Australia releases various measures of unemployment. Most data today is US based however; Inflation Data, Jobless Claims, Building Permits, and Manufacturing data.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Increased chance of QE pushes Sterling lower

Wednesday 18th January 2012
Good morning. Yesterday UK inflation figures increased the chance of further Quantitative Easing next month, pushing Sterling lower against other currencies. The Euro also strengthened a little earlier in the day after better than expected German data, however ongoing concern about sovereign debt limited the drop, with rates for Euros ending up where they started the day! Today we have various unemployment measure for the UK, which will likely have the biggest impact on rates. Below shows how GBP/EUR and GBP/USD moved yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Tuesday 17th January~











UK Inflation data increases chance of Quantitative Easing

Data released yesterday showed that UK inflation fell sharply in December, with the annual CPI rate dropping to 4.2 percent from 4.8 percent in November, supporting the Bank of England's view that consumer price inflation may have peaked. This lower than expected reading is likely to increase the chances that the Bank of England will embark on another round of Quantitative Easing next month.

Clear evidence of falling prices is a precondition for some BoE policymakers to back QE expansion, and so the numbers have caused the Pound to fall. Further data this week such as today's unemployment figures could add to the case, which may bring Pound/Euro prices down from the current highs.

So if UK data continues to disappoint, will GBP/EUR rates fall?

Investors are also mindful of UK economic weakness, with recent data pointing to a high risk of recession. There are lots of other key data releases coming in the next few weeks, and if they are poor it could weigh more heavily on sterling, which late last year was largely immune to UK worries as investors sought alternatives to euro zone assets.

Now however, with the EU debt crisis ongoing, focus is starting to return to core UK economic performance, which is poor at best and this could bring rates back down.

What about the US Dollar?

Rates to buy Dollars are currently at an 18 month low, as the US currency is very strong at the moment. This is nothing to do with any positive US economic data - it's simply the case that the USD is a safe haven currency, and with all the well publicised problems in Europe, it's an attractive option at the moment. Simple supply and demand dictates with the world wanting the safety of the dollar, it's becoming more and more expensive to purchase.

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Today's Data

Today's most important release will be unemployment numbers for the UK which will show the number of people out of work and claiming benefits. In Europe, there are some figures showing construction output. In the states we’ll see Inflation data, Industrial production, and the Housing Market index.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Pound remains supported against Euro

Tuesday 17th January 2012

Good morning. It was a very flat day on the markets yesterday, despite the downgrade of EU countries over the weekend by S&P. Pound Euro remained range bound just below a 16 month high, and Sterling Dollar remained around an 18 month low. This is all due to the EU debt crisis, with the downgrade keeping the Euro weak and the Dollar strong. The charts below show how rates moved throughout the day yesterday :-



~Currency Movements on Monday 16th January~























Eurozone credit rating downgrades



As you can see, there was little movement at all, and through the whole day the cost of €100k only varied by around £150. Very very quiet indeed compared to what we have been used to of late, however there is much happening this week that could change things.



Ratings agency Standard & Poor's last week downgraded the credit rating of nine euro zone countries including France and Austria after the close of London markets, however the rumours had been circulating all day, and as such there wasn't a huge reaction in the currency markets. The Euro had already weakened on the rumour, and as the news came when markets were closed there was little effect on exchange rates.



The news came as negotiations between Greece and private creditors on a debt swap deal broke down, raising the risk of a messy Greek default. What the downgrades do show however, is that global investors are now wary over investing in the Eurozone, and instead look for the safe haven US Dollar. The net effect is a weaker Euro (and therefore higher GBP/EUR rates) and a strong US Dollar (and therefore lower GBP/USD rates).



Sterling Euro is still very close to a 16 month high, however Sterling/US Dollar is near an 18 month low. Germany has retained its AAA credit rating, as the UK does. In the short-to-medium term the UK may benefit a little bit from being a triple-A rated sovereign but I think that will be called into question during 2012 as well, especially if we see further Quantitative Easing in February.



UK also affected by Eurozone debt crisis



It's important to remember that bad news for Europe doesn't automatically mean higher GBP/EUR rates. The UK is intrinsically tied into what happens in Europe. Indeed Sterling has benefited from safe-haven flows as investors that don't want to be exposed to EU debt bought UK gilts instead. The yield on British 10-year gilts fell to within a whisker of a new record low on Monday after the S&P downgrade reduced the pool of European triple-A rated sovereigns. This on it's own shows that there is some safe haven demand for the Pound.



However, some strategists said the fact that Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, was not downgraded could prompt some of those flows to be diverted into Bunds and remove a pillar of support for the pound. Overall, market players said more instability in the euro zone, the UK's largest trading partner, could spell trouble for sterling.



There were various news stories circulating yesterday predicting UK interest rates will stay low for some years to come, and that the UK is headed back into recession.



Summary - when should you buy/sell your currency?



There is much uncertainty in global markets at the moment. There are some factors that support the case that the Euro will continue to weaken, pushing GBP/EUR higher, however many analysts say the Pound will also weaken.



With so much uncertainty, nobody can predict which way exchange rates may move during 2012. There are however various ways we can help protect you against rates moving the wrong way, and strategies you can employ to help you achieve the best rate.



If you need to convert one currency to another, the amount is £5k+, and you need the funds wired to an account anywhere in the world - contact me now by clicking here. I can provide you with a free consultation on the options available to you, and ensure you make the most of your currency.



Today's Data



There is a host of UK inflation data out at 09:30am, in addition to Retail Price Index measures. The EU also has some inflation numbers, which could affect where interest rates move in February. Staying in the EU, there are various German measures of Economic confidence. Finally, an interest rate decision in Canada rounds off the day.



If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 16th January 2011
Good morning. As always on a Monday morning, today I will give a detailed summary of last weeks movements and the Pound Sterling forecast for Euro and US Dollar, in addition to the weeks data that might affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

• GBP/EUR hits 16 month high before falling back
• BoE and ECB keep interest rates on hold, more UK QE expected in February
• US Dollar remains safe haven due to EU troubles
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

We began last week with Sterling trading close to a 16-month high against the euro as focus remained on the debt and liquidity problems continuing to plague the single currency.













The outlook for the single currency was clouded ahead of Spanish and Italian debt auctions later in the week which were seen as a key test of sentiment. The auctions would gauge investor willingness to invest in the troubled euro zone sovereigns. German magazine Der Spiegel reported the International Monetary Fund was losing confidence in Greece's ability to work off its mountain of debt, while Germany and France also warned Greece it will get no more bailout funds until it agrees with specific conditions and pressed for an early deal to avert a potential default.

Sterling held near the 16-month high for the majority of the week but Thursday saw a reversal in fortunes with it losing a little over 1.5% to a slightly firmer Euro. The BoE held record low interest rates at 0.5% and decided not to add to its Quantitative easing program for the time being providing some relief but analysts and traders alike expect the BoE policymakers to expand the QE program next month in order to aid a flagging economy.

UK industrial production posted a surprise fall month-on-month, increasing expectations that the economy contracted in the final quarter of last year adding to speculation that we are on the brink of another recession.

Over in Europe however the ECB President Mario Draghi was less pessimistic, supporting the Euro and said the supply of cheap money released by the ECB was helping stabilise the Eurozone economy which he expected to recover albeit gradually. The Spanish bond auction saw strong demand and sold larger quantities of its sovereign debt than expected, at a lower price than expected.

There was a slight recovery for Sterling to the end the week as the Italian Bond auction received tepid demand and could not match the Spanish auction the previous day. There were also rumours S&P would be imminently downgrading several EU countries, however at the time of writing this had not happened. This further reinforced the volatile outlook for the currency pair and if you have an impending currency requirement the best way to navigate the violent swings in the exchange rate is to keep in close contact with your FCG account manager.

If you need to buy or sell Euros, send us a free enquiry now.

Sterling vs. US Dollar;

The Pound was relatively unchanged against the Dollar last week, trading within a range of just over 1 percent. The lack of data at the start of the week encouraged Sterling to recover to a high of $1.5471, but news on Wednesday from ratings agency Fitch that the Euro could collapse unless the ECB became more active in European sovereign debt markets caused renewed risk aversion and the gains were very quickly lost.













This news also caused the EUR/USD rate to fall to a 16 month low of 1.2660. Sterling’s losses were compounded further after figures showed that the UK trade deficit widened in November as exports fell and imports increased, however December’s figures are expected to be better.

Weaker than expected US retail sales on Thursday were preceded by a fall in UK industrial output for the second consecutive month, almost cancelling each other out but we would have expected a slight recovery in Sterling after the Bank of England decided to maintain the current amount of Quantitative Easing (QE) at £275bn. It is still widely expected however that they are playing a waiting game and the scale of asset purchases is being “kept under review”, therefore most analysts expect to see a further expansion of QE announced at the February meeting and this will more than likely keep Sterling on the back foot.

UK inflation data next week is expected to show another fall towards 4% and could show that the Bank of England have time to keep UK monetary policy loose which would keep Sterling depressed against the Dollar, especially while unemployment figures on Wednesday are expected to be poor again. While US data is showing that the economy isn’t doing as well as most of the presidential candidates would like, it still looks like developments in the Eurozone will be the key driver of Cable.

With the USD being the world’s “safe-haven” currency, further problems within the Eurozone will more than likely continue to increase demands for the Greenback at the detriment of Sterling. At time of writing this we are waiting on an announcement from another of the big ratings agencies Standard & Poors who are expected to downgrade an unnamed European nation and this has forced the GBP/USD mid-market rate back into the 1.52’s.

Anyone looking to trade GBP/USD also has events outside the UK & US to consider so it is more important now than ever to keep in touch with us to make sure you are making an informed decision when buying or selling your currency.

If you need to buy or sell US Dollars, send us an enquiry now.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – We kick off the new week with UK Housing Prices from RICS. In Europe, we see German wholesale prices. Markets are closed in the US for Martin Luther King Day. New Zealand has a release showing Business Confidence.

Tuesday – Things start to get a little busier today, with a host of UK inflation data out at 09:30, in addition to Retail Price Index measures. The EU also has some inflation numbers, which could affect where interest rates move in February. Staying in the EU, there are various German measures of Economic confidence. Finally, an interest rate decision in Canada rounds off the day.

Wednesday – Today sees unemployment numbers for the UK which will show the number of people out of work and claiming benefits. In Europe, there are some figures showing construction output. In the states we’ll see Inflation data, Industrial production, and the Housing Market index.

Thursday – Unusually for a Thursday, there is no UK data being released. The ECB will give a monthly report on the health of the EU economy, and Australia releases various measures of unemployment. Most data today is US based however; Inflation Data, Jobless Claims, Building Permits, and Manufacturing data.

Friday – Today’s UK release is Retail Sales; a good indicator of general consumer confidence. In Canada we will see the latest inflation figures. US data comprises Home Sales.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Pound falls against Euro after Interest Rate decisions

Friday 13th January 2012

Good morning. Friday the 13th. Unlucky for some, and certainly unlucky for those that did not take advantage of the 16 month high in rates this week, as levels have now dropped back away. In yesterdays post I pointed out that in 3 years, the GBP/EUR rate had gone through €1.20 several times, only to quickly correct downwards, and that a repeat could be on the cards. Indeed, after the Interest Rate decisions yesterday, the Pound fell after positive comments from the ECB president strengthened the Euro. We'll take a detailed look at what happened after the usual snapshot of where rates moved throughout trading yesterday:



~Currency Movements on Thursday 12th January~

Bank of England leave Interest Rates and QE on hold



UK interest rates have been held at their record low of 0.5% by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Interest rates have now been at their record low since March 2009. The Bank did not announce any increase in its policy of quantitative easing. In October, the Bank said it would pump another £75bn into the economy.



The decisions were widely expected, and come amid concerns over the economy's strength due to weak consumer spending and the eurozone crisis. It caused no surprises in the currency markets, although we still think further QE will be on the cards in the coming months. If and when they do, expect Sterling weakness. I'll put my neck out and predict that they will announce an extension to QE in February. We shall see.



European Central Bank leave Interest Rates on hold



Shortly after the Bank of England decision, the ECB also announced no changes to it's interest rate, as expected. The decision followed two consecutive months of rate cuts, which were aimed at boosting the currency bloc's growth.



At a news conference, ECB president Mario Draghi said the eurozone economy was still experiencing "high uncertainty and substantial downside risks". However, he also made reference to balanced deflation risks, amd this may cause some to review their expectations.



Certinaly his comments had the effect of strengthening the Euro, pulling GBP/EUR rates over 1% down from the 16 month high seen earlier in the year. It's often been the case that his comments cause swings in exchange rates.



Protecting against adverse rate movements



I've recently talked about Stop Loss orders. Many clients chose to take advantage of these this week in order not to lose out on the best exchange rates in a long time. This is where when rates are good, but you don't want to purchase your currency in case things get even better. You place a Stop Loss at a level below the current rate, and if the market drops, your currency is purchased, giving you a safety net and a worst case scenario.



Those that chose this option should be pleased - the market levelled off at a 16 month high on Monday, and hardly moved all week. Following the events of yesterday, the market has dropped, and those with Stop Loss orders in place limited their loss by having their currency bought at a pre-agreed level.



In addition to Stop Loss orders, we can help you with Limit Orders and Forward contracts. Whichever type of contract you choose to place with us, our exchange rates are up to 5% better than you can achieve at the bank, potentially saving you thousands.



If you have a currency requirement, either now or in the future, click here to send me a free enquiry, and take the first step to making the most of your currency.

Using the services of an expert currency broker like ourselves can have benfits other than the obvious one of better exchange rates. We have various market tools, expert market knowledge, and the direct contact and customer service you just can't get at banks these days. Compare us to your existing broker or bank today.



Today's Data



Today the UK releases its latest inflation figures. The Eurozone and USA releases Trade Balance numbers, and there is also a US consumer Sentiment measure.



If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.