Weekly GBP/EUR & GBP/USD and the weeks data

Monday 13th February 2012
Good morning. So, the start of a new week in the currency markets, so a review of the last weeks movements is in order, in addition to forecasts for Pound/Euro and Pound/Dollar, and the weeks economic data releases that I think will affect exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

• Bank of England announce £50bn Quantitative Easing
• Greek Bailout – will they or won’t they?
• Forecasts for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Events in the euro zone continued to drive currency movements with Sterling beginning the trading week with a rise against the euro as Greek politicians struggled to find a consensus on bailout terms, heightening anxiety over the debt crisis in Europe. Failure to secure a second bailout would result in an unruly default by Greece on its sovereign debt.













Last week’s run of positive UK economic data gave some added support to sterling, though it seemed unlikely to dissuade the Bank of England from announcing an increase in the asset purchase programme (Quantitative Easing) that has been weighing on Sterling. Quantitative easing involves flooding the market with more pounds and is usually negative for the currency.

As expected and predicted here on the Blog last week, the BOE left its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 per cent on Thursday and said it would buy another 50 billion pounds of assets mostly government bonds with freshly printed money. This resulted in Sterling falling into the high 1.18 level before recovering on an accompanying statement in which the BoE sounded more upbeat, saying recent surveys painted a more positive picture of the UK economic recovery however Europe’s debt crisis still posed the biggest risk going forward.

Developments in Greece remained firmly in focus to see out the week. Greek political leaders said they had clinched a deal on economic reforms needed to secure a second EU bailout, but euro zone finance ministers demanded more steps and a parliamentary seal of approval before providing the second bailout. A Crucial parliament vote was due over the weekend or today.
So despite the QE uncertainty now being settled, rates could go either way depending on developments in the Eurozone in particular Greece.

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Sterling vs. US Dollar;

Last week saw the Pound make steady gains against the Dollar despite fears that Thursday’s announcement of more quantitative easing by the Bank of England would weaken Sterling across the board and drive GBP/USD rates down.

Conversely, Sterling Dollar rates actually climbed half a cent at the time of the announcement as investors saw the Bank of England’s decision as a positive step towards stimulating economic growth.













Subsequently, investors moved away from the perceived safe-haven of the US Dollar and into riskier currencies, benefiting the Pound and driving GBP/USD rates upwards.

As has so often been the case recently, it is difficult to comment on the movement of Cable, without mentioning the effect the current Eurozone crisis is having on the currency pairing. In what seems to be a never-ending saga, all eyes were on Greece last week as it was hoped that they would reach an agreement on austerity measures and avoid a disorderly default. The belief that a deal would be struck broadly buoyed riskier currencies, strengthening the Pound and weighing heavily on the safe-haven Greenback, driving Cable up to 1.5929, its highest level since mid - November.

The Bank of England sounded a bit more positive about the UK’s economic prospects last week after better than expected PMI data was released on Thursday. Recent surveys had painted a more positive picture and inflation is expected to undershoot 2 % in the medium term without the need for further adjustments in monetary policy.

The Pound was further boosted after UK industrial data beat forecasts and the trade deficit narrowed more than expected. However, Sterling’s rally proved to be fleeting as GBP/USD rates dropped off sharply on Friday, dropping around a cent over the course of the day, after a reversal in risk sentiment as investors once again moved towards the safe-haven.

"We have a slightly more risk averse environment today but sterling has performed relatively well in the aftermath of QE," said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon. Analysts said further jitters about Greece would probably push the pound higher against the euro, but put it under pressure against the safe haven dollar. GBP/USD ended the European session last week in the mid $1.57s.

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Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – We ease into the week with a quiet day for fundamental data releases. Of note we have German wholesale prices and a press conference with US president Barack Obama, where he is giving a speech on a range of issues including the economy, which may have an indirect impact on the financial markets.

Tuesday – Today is much busier, particularly for the UK. The key releases are House Prices, Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index. All of these are a barometer of inflation and economic activity. In the Eurozone there are measures of Industrial Production and Economic Confidence. In the USA we have Import Prices, & Retail Sales. There are also Retails Sales released in New Zealand, and Consumer confidence measures from Australia.

Wednesday – We kick of the German GDP data at 7am, followed by a raft of UK data at 09:30am including Average Earnings, Unemployment, a BoE inflation report and a speech by BoE governor Mervyn King. We will also see EU wide GDP and Trade Balance figures. In the USA there are some Industrial production figures followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

Thursday – Let’s start in Australia where we will see Inflation data in addition to unemployment figures. In Europe a report is released by the European Central Bank. Further afield in the states we have various Jobless measures and various numbers showing inflation. After all the data is released one of the FEDs members gives a speech.

Friday – A busy end to the week as the world’s finance ministers meet for the latest G20 meeting. We also see UK Housing Prices & Retail Sales. We end the week with measures of inflation for Germany and the EU and the USA.

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Sterling vs Euro exchange rate forecast 2012

Friday 10th February 2012
Good morning. As I predicted in yesterdays post, the Bank of England announced a further £50 billion in Quantitative Easing, and left interest rates on hold, as did the European Central Bank. Despite a temporary gain for the Pound in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, rates fell back away and ended the day largely unchanged, as yesterdays graphs demonstrate:

~Currency Movements on Thursday 9th February 2012~











Central Bank announcements as expected

Yesterday as expected the BoE announced a further £50 billion of Quantitative Easing. The Bank justified its decision against a backdrop of a weak economy, uncertain outlook, and falling inflation.

In a statement they said "In the United Kingdom, the underlying pace of recovery slowed during 2011, with activity falling slightly during the final quarter. Some recent business surveys have painted a more positive picture and asset prices have risen. But the pace of expansion in the United Kingdom’s main export markets has also slowed and concerns remain about the indebtedness and competitiveness of some euro-area countries."

As the charts above show, in the immediate aftermath of the announcement to pump an additional £50 billion into the economy, the Pound made gains against the Euro and US Dollar. This was due to the chance of up to £75 bn being announced, so when the lower figure was released the pound made some temporary gains. These were quite short lived however, and we ended the day where we started, with exchange rates largely unchanged.

European Central bank also leave rates on hold, but for how long?

The European Central Bank also kept base rates unchanged at 1%, but there are chances it could flag more cuts in the near term. Investors are also hoping that Greece will strike a deal to avert a default soon.

What next for Sterling/Euro exchange rates?

The key driver for this currency pair will now be what happens in the EU, with focus now returning to the debt crisis, and Greece in particular. There are some that say Greece will soon agree a deal to avoid a default, and this would calm the markets strengthening the Euro, and could push GBP/EUR rates lower.
However, if there is no deal agreed and the ECB do cut interest rates in the coming months, the Euro could continue to weaken pushing GBP/EUR rates back up again.

So despite the QE uncertainty now being settled, rates could go either way depending on developments in the Eurozone.

Strategies to employ if you are buying or selling Euros

In the current climate with no particular consensus on whether rates will rise or fall, Stop and Limit orders come into their own. For example, lets say you need to buy €150,000 in the next 6 months. You don't want to hold out for higher rates only for the market to drop away, increasing the cost of your currency. Likewise, you don't want to fix your rate now only to see it go higher in the coming weeks and months.

Let's say you're currently able to trade at a level of €1.19. What you can do in this example is place a 'Stop Loss' order at €1.16 - if rates drop away below this level, your currency is secured giving you a worst case scenario; a safety net should rates drop.

At the same time, you can place a 'Limit Order' at a level of €1.21 - if rates hit this level, 24 hours a day 7 days a week, your currency is automatically purchased. Even if you're not following the market, your order is placed allowing you to take advantage of any short term spikes.

Taking control of the market in this way allows you to take advantage of any gains without leaving yourself open to significant drop in rates. You can place these type of orders regardless of which currency you need to buy or sell.

The alternative is simply hoping the market will move in your direction within your time frame. Hope is not a reliable economic tool, and leaving things to chance mean you're letting the market control you. Don't!

How to get the best exchange rates

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Quantitative Easing effect on Exchange Rates

Thursday 9th February 2012
Good morning. Sterling was down against most currencies including the Euro and US Dollar, as markets brace for more Quantitative Easing today from the Bank of England. This is what we will focus on today, and look at what effect Quantitative Easing may have on Sterling exchange rates. First, let's look at how rates moved throughout trading yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 8th February 2012~











Quantitative Easing and the effect on Sterling exchange rates

Today at 12:00pm, the Bank of England will announce if they are changing interest rates, and also if they will pump more money into the economy through their QE programme. It's expected that they will announce a further £50 billion of stimulus, in an effort to bolster the UK's struggling economy. QE involves flooding the market with more pounds and usually weakens the currency. Indeed last time the BoE pumped money in, the Pound fell across the board.

So what effect could it have? As the forecast is for £50 billion and this is already expected, for the most part this will already have been priced into exchange rates. This is why we have seen the Pound fall in recent days. If they decide to opt for more than £50bn, then it's very likely the Pound will fall further.

On the other hand, if the BOE does not opt for more QE, or opts for less than the £50k that has been forecast, it could give a boost to the Pound.

Recent UK data has been a mix of good and bad, and this has hindered accurate forecasts on what will happen today. Some say that the recent good data means that they may not need to pursue more QE at this stage.

Opinion is mixed though. with some arguing that the economy is on the brink of a recession and will need monetary easing especially given that fiscal policy is being tightened. It's therefore likely that UK monetary policy may weigh on sterling.

Euro could also gather strength as a solution to the Greek debt talks seems on the cars.

This has strengthened the Euro and made it more expensive to purchase, compounding the fall in GBP/EUR rates.

Summary - take the first step to taking control of your currency needs

There is lots going on at the moment that will affect exchange rates in the next few weeks and months. Each persons requirement is unique, and depends on timescales in addition to the currency you need to buy or sell.

The best option is to send me a free enquiry by clicking here. I can then provide you with a free consultation over the phone as to what options you have to ensure you get the best possible exchange rates, and you can then decide when to time your purchase, armed with all the knowledge you need to make an informed decision.

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Pound drops against Euro; how to protect against falling rates

Wednesday 8th February 2012
Good morning. Sterling fell against the Euro yesterday, and in the absence of any UK data it was developments in the Eurozone affecting rates, with the single currency holding firm even as Greek talks on the terms of a new bailout deal dragged on. The Euro is being supported by comments from Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker who said he had no doubt about Greece's future in the euro zone provided the country fulfilled its duties towards other euro members. This is what caused rates to dip yesterday, as the chart below shows:

~Currency Movements on Tuesday 7th February 2012~










Sterling falls vs Euro, markets braces for further drops

The GBP/EUR rate has been fairly steady in the last few weeks, but yesterday rates fell slightly as there was more optimism over Greek debt. As stated above, positive comments from the Eurogroup president gave the single currency some strength, and this is what driven rates yesterday.

His comments strengthened the Euro, making it more expensive to purchase and pushing rates back into the €1.19's. The chart above clearly shows the drop through the afternoon. This also had an inverse effect on the GBP/USD rates - with investors more confident in the Euro, funds were moved from the safe haven US Dollar to the Euro, causing the Dollar to weaken, and pushing rates to a fresh near 3 month high.

Today's Data is pretty thin on the ground UK wise, and there are some Trade Balance figures for Germany. Markets will be bracing for Thursday's key Bank of England decision, with many forecasting doom and gloom for the Pound.

Bank of England - more Quantitative Easing on the way?

Better UK PMI data last week eased concerns the UK economy could slip into recession, although market players are still expecting the Bank of England to announce another round of quantitative easing later this week, with the decision happening at 12pm on Thursday.

most forecasts suggest around £50 billion more being pumped into the economy - effectively flooding the market with more pounds which would be likely to weaken demand. The last time QE happened, GBP/EUR rates fell around 3 points in 24 hours.

Do you need to buy Euros?

If you need to buy Euros within the next 3 or 6 months, consider fixing a rate before Thursday to protect you against a possible drop in rates. Even if you don't need your currency for some time, you can fix the rate with a Forward Contract - you only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert, and you can guarantee the rate on the total. The remaining 90% is only due when you want your Euros to be transferred.

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Pound Sterling Forecast and Euro Rate Forecast

Monday 6th February 2012
Good morning. Today we'll take a detailed look at recent exchange rate movements. With the GBP/EUR rate coming down from an 18 month high, and GBP/USD down from a 2.5 month high, we will look at the Pound Sterling Forecast and Euro rate forecast, and if exchange rates will go up or down through February 2012.

In this week’s Report:

• Bank of England to resume Quantitative Easing this week?
• Pound/US Dollar drop from 2.5 month high
• Pound/Euro predicted to fall from near 18 month high
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Sterling’s week against the Euro remained relatively range bound with data releases having little effect on the pairing. Most investors spent much of the week holding out before making any serious moves as they waited for a conclusion to the Greek debt problems and a potential bail out through private creditors. “There's not very much news coming from the UK market at the moment, I think really it's all about what we're seeing in Europe," said Sara Yates, FX strategist at Barclays.













Analysts said the market was likely to take direction from the Greek debt talks, though concerns about debt problems in Portugal, where yields on government debt have hit record highs, may weigh on the single currency.

Despite the lack of movement in the market there were a couple of key data releases that may have a longer term impact on the market. On Wednesday the UK saw a surprising upwards movement in the Manufacturing sector with PMI data. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

The survey is taken from about 600 purchasing managers in order to gain a consensus and a reading of above 50.0 indicates growth and a reading of below 50.0 indicates a contraction in the market. This month reading of 52.1 was a welcome surprise from the expected reading of 51.1.
Although January's manufacturing PMI partially eased some of the UK’s economic worries, it made little to change the market's forecast of more quantitative easing by the BoE this week, which is likely to undermine the pound in the near term.

Peter Allwright, head FX trader at fund manager RWC Partners summed up the mood of the market perfectly when he said “One still cannot paint a rosy picture for the UK. But having said that, there is nothing to get excited about the euro either”.

One potentially influential event happened on Thursday and yet virtually no press given to it. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said China was "investigating and evaluating concrete ways in which it can, via the IMF, get more deeply involved in solving the European debt problem".
Whilst one could argue that the reason it was not widely publicised was due to the fact it is unlikely that anything will come from it and it is all just rhetoric, there is the train of thought suggesting that if this effort were to come up with something that is applicable and sustainable in the long term, then it could potentially change the whole nature of the Euro debt crisis.

Euro purchasers would do well to bear this in mind with a view to their currency movements and remember that there are a great many factors pressing on the GBP/EUR cross. Despite the recent Euro weakness the Pound is still far from a reliable currency with which to bank on its performance.

If you need to buy Euros and want the best exchange rates, click here to send an enquiry now.


Sterling vs. US Dollar;

Despite some poor UK data and the chance of a Euro break up sending the UK economy into a second recession, sterling hit a 2 ½ month high against the Dollar in the latter part of last week. This was mainly due to Mr Ben Bernanke (chairman of the Fed) announcing that the US interest rates are likely to remain near zero until late 2014. That coupled with the likelihood of QE3 in the US hurt the dollar across the board. A weaker Dollar is cheaper to purchase, hence the climb in rates.













The GBP/USD rates were also being supported by a more optimistic outlook for riskier currencies and data from the UK which pointed towards growth in the UK construction and manufacturing sectors. However, continued worries over the UK economy and the growing likelihood that the Bank of England will also announce an increase in its asset purchasing program on Thursday of this week to support the UK’s flagging growth, is likely to keep the pound in check. That said, the survey of UK manufacturing released last Wednesday did ease some worries about the UK economy after the contraction in the 4th quarter of last year.

To end last week, on Friday the eagerly awaited US non-farm payroll came out up 243000 which was well above the expectations of 140,000 and saw cable drop off from recent 2.5 month highs to the mid $1.57s (interbank rate).

Looking ahead, due to the fact that sterling is increasingly linked with global growth prospects because of its reliance on exports, any movement in the GBP/USD cross in the medium term will partly be due to evolving news on the global debt crisis. Although the main mover of cable in the short term will be the UK interest rate decision (which is highly expected to be kept on hold) and the possibility of more QE3 on Thursday.

Last week saw GBP/USD rates move between the $1.56 and $1.5850 range (interbank). To put this into real terms, a purchase of $200,000 would have a difference in cost of £1500.00 between the highs and the lows of last week, outlining the importance of staying in close contact with your FCG account manager.

With rates now falling from the recent 2.5 month highs, and further falls possible due to the risk of further Quantitative Easing by the Bank of England, most forecasts now seem to suggest rates heading back towards $1.50. For this reason, if you need to buy US Dollars in the next 3 to 6 months, contact us today to discuss how we can protect against adverse exchange rate movements.

Click here to find out more about our commercial exchange rates.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – The only UK release of note today is House Price data from the Halifax. There are some investor confidence measures for the Eurozone in addition to German Factory orders. Further afield, Australia releases Retail Sales, Construction performance and Jobs data.

Tuesday – Another quiet day for the UK with only Retail Sales data from the BRC being released. Australia has an interest rate decision; GBP/AUD is already at record lows. In the Eurozone the only data is German Industrial Production. In the afternoon the USA releases its latest measures of Consumer Credit and Economic Optimism.

Wednesday – Another fairly quiet day as markets brace for tomorrows central bank decisions. Today we have some Trade Balance figures from Germany, Employment data for New Zealand and US Mortgage Applications.

Thursday – By far the most important and anticipated day of the week, and lots to cover so bear with me! We’ll start in the UK with some minor House Price data, followed by Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance figures late morning. At 12:00pm we will see the Bank of England’s latest decision on Quantitative Easing and Interest rates.

It’s predicted that rates will be left on hold, but there is a very high change the BoE will increase its QE programme by up to £75bn which could weaken Sterling significantly. Also, at 15:00pm there is the NIESR GDP estimate for the UK, which could indicate the UK is heading back into recession. There is much today that may affect Sterling exchange rates.

In the Eurozone there is also an interest rate decision where rates will probably be left on hold. The US has various jobless measures in the afternoon.

Friday – Market will continue to react to the raft of data released on Thursday, and also today we will see German inflation data. In the UK we also have lots of inflation data that could affect interest rates in the future. We end the week with US Trade Balance numbers and a budget statement from the Federal Reserve.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Sterling Euro exchange rate forecast will the rates last this high?

Friday 3rd February 2012
Good morning. Sterling was pretty steady against the US Dollar yesterday, remaining around the 2.5 month high. Against the Euro it was up and down, but remained in the €1.20's all day. The Pound is being supported by a cautiously optimistic outlook for riskier currencies and data from the UK which pointed at growth in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Below shows how rates moved throughout the day yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 1st February 2012~











Markets Flat

There is little to report in fact with regards to yesterdays currency movements. Most data came out roughly as expected, and there wasn't much volatility. Pound/EUro remained between €1.20 and €1.2080, and the Pound/Dollar rates hovered around the 2.5 month high for most of the day.

The GBP/EUR rate briefly spiked as there was some uncertainty over a Greek debt swap deal and an increasingly ominous outlook for Portuguese sovereign debt kept investors wary of the common currency. The European Central Bank is expected to keep offering cheap money to euro zone banks to try and free up liquidity and get them lending to companies and consumers, however, and that kept the spike limited and pulled rates back down to where we started the day, and the chart above illustrates.

Markets await next weeks key UK data

Despite the relative calm we saw yesterday, we still think rates are very unlikely to remain at the current levels for long. Persistent worries over the UK economy and the likelihood that the Bank of England will announce an increase in its asset purchase programme next week were likely to keep the pound in check, with data from the dominant service sector awaited on Friday.
If you need to buy Euros in the next 3 months, then there are ways to protect against the market going down, even if all your funds are not available and you don't need the Euros for some time.

To discuss the different ways we can help you do this, in addition to achieving commercial exchange rates that are significantly better than elsewhere, send a free enquiry now by clicking here.

Today's Data

We end the week with more UK House price info, this time from the Halifax. There are also further inflation numbers to add to those released earlier in the week. The Eurozone also has further inflation numbers and Retail Sales. Across the pond, we have Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data – both of which often affect GBP/USD rates.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Pound Euro rate forecast Feb 2012

Thursday 2nd February 2012
Good morning. Sterling levelled off around the €1.20 level against the Euro yesterday, as markets repositioned the Euros value for the start of the month. Overall, the Pound gained, especially against the US Dollar after better than expected UK manufacturing PMI data meant markets are wondering about the level of QE expected next week from the Bank of England (BoE). Below shows how the rates moved throughout the day.

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 1st February 2012~











Pound surges against the US Dollar

Yesterday the pound gained well against the Greenback. We started the day in the low $1.57's however by later afternoon the rate had risen to the mid $1.58's. This represents the best buying levels for US Dollars in nearly 3 months.

The main reason for the gain was the fact Sterling was supported by a surprise return to growth in the UK's manufacturing sector. This in turn means the QE from the BoE next week may not be as high as the £75bn estimated, and as a result the Pound gathered some strength and GBP/USD rates went up.

Pound lags against the Euro

Despite the gains against the Dollar, Pound/EUro rates actually fell slightly yesterday. BUt with good UK data pushing the Pound up, why didn't it go up against the Euro?

It's simply because the euro outperformed the Pound. The single currency was bolstered by higher than forecast German PMI data. The data suggests higher interest rates may be on the cards in the Eurozone, and this gave the Euro strength and pulled GBP/EUR rates down, despite the good UK figures. The Euro however is likely to run into selling at higher levels given mounting worries that the sovereign debt crisis could spread to bigger economies.

Going forwards this could weaken the Euro again, but with the Pound expected to fall in the coming weeks, a weak Euros doesn't necessarily mean higher GBP/EUR rates - indeed I predict by the end of next week we will be significantly below the €1.20 level.

Sterling could weaken

Most recent UK data, including gross domestic product numbers, has so far shown the economy is on the brink of a recession and the Bank of England is likely to step up its asset purchase programme next month to support the flagging economy.

Yesterdays data did ease some of those worries and gave the Pound a little boost, but did little to change market expectations of more quantitative easing by the Bank of England next month.

That is likely to undermine the British pound in the near term, especially against the dollar.

Today's Data

We’ll start down under today – Australia has Building permits, Commodity prices and Trade Balance figures – if good this could push GBP/AUD even lower than it already is. The UK releases its PPI data this morning also. In the Eurozone there are also inflation figures. In the USA there are some important releases – Jobless Claims, Labour costs and Nonfarm productivity.