GBP recovers despite possibility of UK recession

Friday 30th March 2012
Good morning. Well, what a difference a day makes. After seeing Sterling fall earlier in the week as outlined in my recent post the Pound regained ground against a beleaguered Euro yesterday, however the Pound did fall away from the recent highs against the Dollar. And all of this on the back of a host of poor economic data.

So to end the week, let's look first at the data we had yesterday, then I'll explain why the Pound actually gained against the Euro despite this!

Poor UK Data casts shadow over UK economy

Yesterday saw quite a bit of UK economic data that was worse than forecast. Firstly we saw that mortgage approvals fell last month, and money supply for February posted its biggest monthly fall on record. This was followed by figures showing poor growth in Britain's dominant services sector. We then learned that UK House Prices had their sharpest drop in over 2 years.

Then, to put the icing on the cake of doom the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has calculated that the UK economy shrank in the first three months of the year - if true this means we're back in recession that I also touched on yesterday. You can read more about the OECD figures here on the Telegraphs website. All of the above came just a day after data unexpectedly showed the UK economy had contracted more than previously thought in the fourth quarter of 2011.

So, with all the poor data why did the Pound gain against the Euro?

There was an interesting report on the Reuters website that British electricity supplier International Power had received a proposal from its majority shareholder, French utility GDF Suez, to buy shares it does not hold already.

This basically meant there could be a huge demand for Sterling, and this speculation caused the Pound to gain a little. As the chart shows we saw steady gains throughout the day yesterday.

It was mostly however due to the Euro weakening and becoming cheaper to buy. Italian and Spanish government bond yields rose while Italian credit default swaps also moved higher, reflecting investor worries that the EU debt crisis is ongoing and that Greece may need further funds.

The news weakened the Euro enough to brush of the poor UK data, and that's why the Pound rose against the Euro yesterday.

Sterling falls against US Dollar

Despite gains made against the single currency, the Pound fell from it's recent 4 month high against the US Dollar. With the poor UK data and also weakness in the Euro likely to drive investors towards the safe haven US Dollar, I don't expect rates to break $1.60. If anything I wouldn't be surprised to see rates fall for GBP/USD this year given the current climate.

Today's data that might have an effect on exchange rates

There are no UK releases today. To end the week we have German Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence. Stateside watch for Personal Consumption Expenditure figures, Inflation data, and a consumer sentiment survey.

Getting the best exchange rates

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Pound falls on revised UK growth figures

Thursday 29th March 2012
Good morning. It was a glorious day with unbroken sunshine across the UK yesterday, however the sun was not shining on the Pound, which took a drop against other currencies. So why did Sterling fall during trading yesterday? It dropped to a 2 week low against the Euro and also dropping from it's recent highs against the US Dollar. This was due to data unexpectedly showed the UK economy contracted more than previously thought in the fourth quarter of last year. In today's post we'll look at this and how it affects the Euro Rate forecast going forwards.

Sterling falls on growth figures

Figures released yesterday morning showed that UK gross domestic product contracted by 0.3 % in the last 3 months of 2011, which was worse than the forecast for an unrevised 0.2% fall on the quarter.














What does this mean for exchange rates?

It means there is a small risk of the UK going back into recession, and this has weakened the Pound. We've now had one quarter of negative growth of -0.3%. If figures next month show the first 3 months of 2012 also had a contraction, then it's the technical definition of a recession.

While this is unlikely as forecasts suggest growth so far in 2012, it did hurt the Pound, especially as it comes days after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned the challenges facing the UK economy, and saying that Britain faces a long road back to economic growth.

As you can see in the charts showing yesterdays GBP/EUR and GBP/USD movements, the figures pushed Sterling lower and pulled exchange rates down.

My view is that this is probably a temporary dip. With focus on the Eurozone debt crisis, this blip for the UK will be largely overshadowed, however it may mean that any decent recovery for the Pound will now be limited. Rates for Euros dropped into the low €1.19's yesterday, but remained within my predicted 1.19 to 1.20 range for GBP/EUR rates. The Euro debt crisis will likely keep Pound/Euro supported, but I don't expect it to get significantly above €1.20.

Indeed as I outlined in yesterdays post, historically over the last few years rates of €1.20 have been short lived, and are often following by a significant fall in Pound/Euro buying levels. If I had Euros to buy, I would probably look to secure rates while they are close to 18 month highs, especially given the global financial volatility at the moment.

What do other analysts say?

"There is a degree of consolidation in sterling after the sell-off of the dollar," said Derek Halpenny, currency strategist at BTMU.However, he argued the fundamental outlook was not too negative for the pound.

"There are some positives for sterling relative to the euro (due to problems in Europe) and even relative to cyclical currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar from a valuation perspective."

Elswhere Peter Dixon at Commerzbank said "What does it mean? Probably not a lot. But it kind of makes the starting point for 2012 that little bit more difficult,". I agree with him comments.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

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Pound at 4 month high vs US Dollar, flat vs Euro

Wednesday 28th March 2012
Good morning. The Pound/Euro rate has been pretty flat so far this week, remaining around the €1.19 to €1.20 range. Against the US Dollar rates briefly hit a 4 month high above $1.60, before retreating slightly. Today we will take a look at what is causing recent movements, and the forecast for GBP/EUR and GBP/USD for the coming weeks.

Sterling remains range-bound vs Euro

Let's start with the Pound/Euro exchange rate, which remains around the €1.20 level. It did briefly drop by half a point yesterday morning when the first round of economic figures were released, however the drop was not to last.

At 12:00pm yesterday the CBI Distributive Trades Survey was released by the Confederation of British Industry. This is an indicator of short-term trends in the UK retail and wholesale distribution sector, and tends to have an impact on the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within Government, and so can often impact Sterling.

The figures were much better than analysts had forecasts, and the Pound steadily recovered throughout the day, pushing back towards the €1.20 level.

What is the Pound Euro Forecast for where rates may head?

We're getting mixed messages from analysts at the moment. On the one hand the EU debt crisis is not resolved and this is keeping the Euro weak. It's important to remember however that there is no fundamental strength in the Pound, it's simply the fact that we have our own central bank to print money, and a well established austerity plan that the markets like. This is keeping the Pound supported against other currencies... for the moment.

Supporting this view was Bank of England policymaker David Miles, who said earlier this week that economy had effectively stalled, with growth rates near zero over the last six months, keeping alive slim chances of another round of quantitative easing. A bulletin released by the BoE yesterday suggested that asset purchases by central banks have helped economies weather their crises, and so the sluggish UK growth is keeping alive the prospects of more QE.

My view is that while the threat of more QE is on the horizon, the Pound will not make any significant gains against the Euro. It will likely remain range-bound between €1.18 and €1.20, but any resolution to the EU debt crisis could pull rates back down. In fact for several years now, we have seen rates above €1.20 only to sharply drop back away within a month or two. If you need Euros at the best possible rates, then send me an enquiry now to find out how you can protect yourself against the rate dropping.

EU Debt crisis: OECD urges eurozone rescue fund boost

The OECD has said that the eurozone needs to double its bailout fund to €1 trillion, however German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would favour only a temporary increase. The reason for the proposed increase is that some fear that the fund will not be able to cope with another bailout.

At the moment we've seen bailouts already for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. While this has given some stability to the markets and kept exchange rates stable, the chance is still there that other countries, namely Spain and Italy, could require some funding. This shows that the EU debt crisis is far from over, and is keeping rates supported around the €1.20 level.

Adding to the problems in the EU, Spain confirmed yesterday that they had fallen back into recession. It contracted again in Q1 this year, and in the last quarter of last year. 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is a 'technical' recession.

Sterling hits 4 month high against US Dollar

Despite the stability in GBP/EUR rates, the Pound/Dollar rate actually gained quite well yesterday, and rose to its highest in more than 4 months. The dollar was hit by increasing chances of more U.S. monetary easing, which weakened it and made it cheaper to purchase.

Given rates are now quite favourable, those that need the best exchange rates for Dollars can look at a Forward contract - lock in the rate now for up to 2 years, and only lodge 10% of the funds now, the remainder due when you want the currency. If this is of interest to you contact us to discuss it further.

Today's Data to watch out for

We start in Germany again today, with inflation numbers at 7am. A few hours later the EU releases money supply data. US figures this afternoon include Durable Goods orders. There are no releases of note today from the UK.

Getting the best exchange rates

You want the best exchange rates, of course you do. That's why you're reading this blog to try and gauge your timing. Take the next step and send us a free enquiry and have a consultation on all the options available to you.

It's free, it doesn't obligate you, and you may be surprised how much you can save by using us to get exchange rates that are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Click below to send your free enquiry now, and get a response the same day.

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Sterling/Euro Forecast, Sterling/Dollar, Fundamental Data

Monday 26th March 2012

Good morning. Regular Readers will notice the blog has had a Spring clean and a fresh new look for the new season. While the look of the blog has changed, the content has not - knowledgable currency reports to help you decide when to convert your currency, and commercial exchange rates that are significantly better than you can achieve elsewhere. As always for a Monday, today we will look at last weeks movements in exchange rates.

In this week’s Report:

• UK Budget has little impact on exchange rates


• Sterling/Euro remains range bound at €1.19/€1.20


• Pound/Dollar climbs near $1.60, but forecasts mixed


• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

(For currencies other than GBP, EUR and USD, contact us for a consultation)

Sterling vs. Euro;

Last week began positively for Sterling as it climbed to a 13-month peak against the euro on a recent run of improved UK data. Additionally, there were no surprises in the UK budget, but analysts warned that the key to whether sterling would sustain a bounce will be the response of ratings agencies, which may express concern if the budget focuses too much on growth-boosting measures at the expense of deficit-reduction efforts.

Sterling slipped on Tuesday but remained close to its recent highs after UK inflation eased less than forecast in February, but focus remained on the Chancellors Budget announcement. Wednesday morning saw Sterling fall away from the 13-month high by a little over 0.5% after the release of much higher-than-anticipated public sector borrowing for February. Any future deterioration in the borrowing figures could persuade ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's to carry out their threat to downgrade the UK's prized AAA sovereign debt status, which in turn could be a potential source of weakness for the UK currency.

The BoE minutes later in the day contributed to further weakness as the minutes returned a little more negative than most analysts were expecting. George Osborne’s much anticipated 2012 Budget however was perceived as largely neutral for Sterling, the chancellor was seen to be sticking with the coalition government's austerity drive which aims to bring the country's finances back into line in five years.

Sterling fell a further half a per cent on Thursday, after weak UK retail sales data resurrected concerns over a lack of growth in the UK economy, fuelling a reversal in speculation of more Bank of England asset purchases (QE). Retail sales suffered their biggest monthly drop in nine months in February, with further disappointment coming from sharp downward revisions to January's releases.

The Pound ended the week on a much quieter note with Friday bringing little in the way of the volatility we had seen during the rest of the week. If this week demonstrates one thing, it’s that the outlook for the UK economy and Sterling is far from certain. The economy continues to send out mixed messages and if you have an impending currency requirement the market uncertainty could leave you paying significantly more for your currency than is necessary.

If you need to get the best possible exchange rates, then you should compare the rates I can help you achieve to make sure you're getting the best possible deal. Click here to send me an enquiry and have a free consultation on what I can offer.

Sterling vs. US Dollar;

After experiencing a seven week low in mid-march, the GBP/USD rate strengthened last Monday and crossed the $1.59 barrier (interbank) which was the highest level seen since the beginning of March.













In the early part of the week the GBP/USD remained flat as the markets awaited key data in the form of Bank of England minutes and the UK budget. The minutes showed a surprisingly negative slant as rate setters Adam Posen and David Miles pushed for more quantitative easing to try to stimulate the economy. Sterling subsequently slipped against the dollar with this news and is a stark reminder for investors that the British economy is still in a vulnerable position.

"Sterling is being moved a lot more by what's going on elsewhere but I was shocked by the dovish nature of the minutes as most people thought more QE in May was off the table and this puts the risk of it back on," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at FOREX.com.

The following day the pound showed little reaction to what analysts and ratings agencies described as a fiscally neutral UK budget. Fitch ratings said finance minister George Osborne's proposals showed commitment to deficit reduction and would not impact the UK's AAA rating. The outlook for sterling depends on the economy - it could take a long time for recovery to take root, and sterling probably will only rally when there are signs that's happening. “About the best you can say of the budget was that it won't hurt” said analysts at Societe Generale.

It was a busy week in the US for data with most of it having little effect on rates. But unemployment data released last week showed a drop to the lowest level in four years, reinforcing signs the U.S. labour market is picking up. Jobless claims also decreased by 5,000 to 348,000 which continue to keep rates at a decent level.

GBP/USD has been choppy recently with the mixed economic figures coming out of both countries. We continue to see the pair make moves in both directions and many analysts are torn over their forecast with some thinking that the cross will end up towards the $1.50 level within the next twelve months, and others believing firmly that the 1.60 barrier will be broken very soon.

With so much volatility between the GBP/USD, it's wise not to leave things to chance. If you need to buy or sell dollars, send me a free enquiry now to find out what rate I can achieve for you.

Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – We start the week in the UK with Nationwide Housing Prices. At 9am Germany releases sentiment measures including Business Climate, Current Assessment and Expectations. Stateside we have some Home Sales Data at 3pm.

Tuesday – Germany has the first release of the day, with Consumer Confidence released at 7am. At 09:30am UK data starts to flow, with GDP figures and Business Investment measures. GDP in particular could have an effect on Sterling. There is also a Trend Survey from the UK today. Other data today is from the USA: Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing numbers and a speech by FED chairman Ben Bernanke.

Wednesday – We start in Germany again today, with inflation numbers at 7am. A few hours later the EU releases money supply data. US figures this afternoon include Durable Goods orders. There are no releases of note today from the UK.

Thursday – German unemployment is released today, but most data is from the UK: Consumer Credit, BoE Credit report, Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals and net lending. All of this is released at 09:30am so watch for any effect on the Pound. We also have UK Confidence measures released in the evening. Before that there is a host of US data including GDP, Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and another speech by Ben Bernanke.

Friday – There are no UK releases today. To end the week we have German Retail Sales, EU Consumer Confidence. Stateside watch for Personal Consumption Expenditure figures, Inflation data, and a consumer sentiment survey.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exhange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

Budget, Sterling/Euro forecast & Regular Payments

Thursday 22nd March 2012
Good morning. Pound/Euro had a mixed day yesterday. Higher than expected borrowing figures pushed rates lower in the morning, however rates were to recover later in the afternoon. The Budget had little to no effect on exchange rates at all, and was perceived as neutral for the currency. Today we will look at the Budget, the Bank of England minutes, and how to get the best deal for Regular Payments in Euros. Below shows rate movements throughout the day yesterday:

~Currency Movements on Wednesday 22nd March 2012~











UK Budget

The budget delivered yesterday was pretty much as expected, contained no real surprises and had no effect on Sterling exchange rates. The chancellor George Osborne was seen to be sticking with the coalition government's austerity drive which aims to bring the country's finances back into line in five years, though sluggish growth hampered by fiscal cuts remains a concern to investors.

As it had little effect on rates, I won't go into any real detail on the budget here, but for those that are interested, the key points are outlined here on the BBC website.

Of interest to me were 2 key facts; Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revises up UK growth forecast for 2012 to 0.8% - from 0.7% - better growth should be good for the Pound in the long term.

Also, borrowing this year to be £126bn - £1bn less than forecast in the autumn. Predicted to be £120bn in 2012-13 and £98bn in 2013-14. Forecast to fall to £21bn by 2016-17. Again, lower borrowing would cut the deficit and could give the Pound a boost should it prove to be the case.

Higher borrowing figures published just before the budget

The Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts for growth and borrowing detailed by Osborne were marginally more optimistic than the previous estimates, but the earlier release of much higher-than-expected public sector borrowing for February pulled the Pound down, as illustrated in the charts above. Any future deterioration in the borrowing figures may well mean that ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's downgrade the UK's prized AAA sovereign debt status, a potential source of weakness for the UK currency.


BoE Minutes

The BoE's latest policy minutes were largely overshadowed by the budget, but they showed two policymakers voted for more monetary stimulus to support the economy. Most in the market had expected a unanimous vote for asset purchases to be left on hold following the February decision to increase the scheme by 50 billion pounds to 325 billion. This also put Sterling under pressure before getting better later in the day.

Making Regular Payments

When owning property overseas, many people will need to make Regular monthly transfers between Pounds and Euros. The natural inclination is to arrange this sort of thing through your bank; however it’s usually a fairly expensive way of doing it. When making Regular Payments on a monthly basis, we can save you money compared to your bank through lower costs and much better exchange rates. Our Regular Payment Plan means you simply set up a Standing Order for the amount you want to convert, and your transfers happen automatically.

We purchase all the Euros in bulk, meaning that you can achieve commercial exchange rates even on smaller amounts. Due to the better rates and lower costs, sending €1000 per month over 10 years could save you nearly £10,000.00 compared to using your bank, as the figures below illustrate.











(Figures based on Foremost rates and typical bank rates on 21st March)

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exchange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.

How will the 2012 Budget affect exchange rates

Wednesday 21st March 2012
Good morning. It's budget day - so today we will look at how will the UK 2012 budget affect exchange rates, and the implication for the Pound Sterling Forecast and Euro Rate Forecast. It's been the usual story for Sterling so far this week. On Monday we hit a high of €1.2071, however as has often been the cast in the last few months, the highs were not to last, and yesterday the Pound fell back against most currencies, as the chart below shows.

~Currency Movements on Tuesday 20th March 2012~











Sterling falls against Euro ahead of Budget

The Pound fell against the Euro yesterday after UK inflation fell to the lowest in over a year. This means interest rates are likely to stay on hold for the foreseeable future, slightly weakening Sterling.

The UK Currency has had a good run in the last few days, after being underpinned by a recent run of better data. According to Reuters Sterling rose to a 13-month peak against a trade-weighted basket of currencies on Monday. Analysts expect it to extend gains if there are more signs of economic improvement, while some expect it could benefit from the UK's annual budget on Wednesday.

Budget Today

Today the chancellor will announce the latest budget. As ever, the BBC has an excellent outline of what to expect on their 2012 Budget page. Much of it will not affect the currency markets, but undoubtedly there will be financial aspects of it that will. The key points of the budget that might affect Sterling are likely to be as follows:

• The government's basic economic strategy will not change
• The basic economic numbers will not change
• This will be a fiscally neutral budget
• A note of caution on income tax
• The European debt crisis

In a nutshell, it's all to do with investor confidence. If the budget outlines plans that look good and make the UK an attractive place to invest, the Pound may make some gains. If there are no surprises in the budget, and there is nothing there that changes anything, we could see the Pound fall slightly.

Some analysts say sterling could gain a boost if UK finance minister George Osborne announces some measures to support growth in a fiscally neutral budget, still leaving the country on course to reduce a hefty deficit.

"The expectations are for the Chancellor of Exchequer (finance minister) to announce lower tax rates, more generous tax allowances which together with the credit easing scheme announced yesterday should stimulate domestic demand and thus boost growth," Citi analysts said in a note to clients.

But they warned that key to whether sterling can sustain a bounce will be the response of ratings agencies, which may express concern if the budget focuses too much on growth-boosting measures at the expense of deficit reduction efforts.

To discuss how rate movements might affect your currency requirement, send me a free enquiry now.

BoE minutes at 09:30am

Today we will also see the latest Bank of England minutes, showing the discussions and vote split to their recent decision to hold interest rates and QE. These minutes often have a big impact on Sterling, although today they may be overshadowed by the budget.


Do you need the best exchange rates?

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Weekly GBP/EUR forecast, and the weeks data

Monday 19th January 2012
Good morning, and welcome to another new week in the currency markets. It should be an interesting one, with both the UK Budget and BoE minutes being released on Wednesday. With GBP/EUR rates remaining above €1.20, will they go up or down in the next few weeks or months? Let's move on to the Monday roundup of last weeks movements, and see what's in store this week.


In this week’s Report:

• UK Budget this week could affect Sterling
• Pound/Euro rates remain above €1.20
• Credit Rating downgrade threat for UK
• Round up of the week’s data that may affect rates

Sterling vs. Euro;

Today we will look in detail at the following.... Last week saw the Euro zone finance ministers finally approve the second Greek bail-out package, Increased UK unemployment rates and Fitch’s warning that the UK’s credit rating changing from stable to negative. Market movement’s saw the week open in the 1.18’s, ending back near the 1.20 level (Interbank):













The start of last week saw euro zone finance ministers agreeing the second Greek Bail-out package. Attention then moved to Spain as the government confirmed the nation would not meet the EU deficit goal for 2012 as the economy looks set to enter into a recession. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on banks and governments to make the most of a lull in the sovereign debt crisis.

Markets took the comments as a hint that the lull in the Eurozone crisis could be short lived. This was reflected within the market as we saw level’s move up towards the 1.20 mark nearing the 16 month high we saw in January. Why has Pound/Euro rates gone up? It's due to fears the debt crisis will rear it's head again soon, weakening the Euro.

UK unemployment rose by 28,000 to 2.67 million during the three months to January, with the unemployment rate at 8.4%, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The rise in unemployment was the lowest rise in almost a year and has said to be “stabilising” (Employment Minister Chris Grayling).

The unemployment news followed some more positive data for the UK economy as retail sales rose by a surprise 0.9% in January as fears of a recession fade, seeing Sterling strengthen against the Euro.

Fitch warned that it could downgrade the UK in the next few years if the government does not contain the level of public debt. The warning comes as Chancellor George Osborne puts the finishing touches to this year's Budget. This week could see increasing volatility for the GBP/EUR as the Bank of England minutes and the Budget are announced on Wednesday.

With so many uncertainties surrounding the GBP/EUR cross, and given the rates are very near their best in over a year and a half, if you need to buy or sell Euros in the medium to long term, consider a Forward contract.

You can fix the current exchange rate for up to two years in advance. You secure your rate with us and lodge a 10% deposit; you then settle the remaining 90% when you want your currency to be transferred. In this way you can budget effectively, safe in the knowledge you have secured rates at a high while being protected against any adverse exchange rates movements.

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Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates

Monday – We kick off the week with Rightmove House Prices. Shortly after the EU releases construction output. In the states we have a FED speech, and the housing market index. Finally in Australia there is a speech by an RBA member.

Tuesday – Starting in the UK we will see Retail Price Index, Consumer Price Index and the CBI Industrial Trend survey. EU data comprises of inflation numbers from Germany. US Data is Housing Starts and Building permits.

Wednesday – Of huge importance today is the UK budget. This could contain some surprises and so we expect a volatile day for Sterling. Also today we will see the Bank of England minutes to their recent decision to hold interest rates and QE. It will be interesting to see discussions and votes and this could affect Sterling. In the USA there are some Home Sales figures. In New Zealand there are GDP figures which could affect GBP/NZD rates.

Thursday – Retail Sales are released in the UK today. In Europe we have a host of inflation numbers in addition to Industrial New Orders. Later in the data EU Consumer confidence figures are releases. Stateside we have Jobless claims.

Friday – A quiet end to the week with US Home Sales the only data of note.

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, click below now to send us an enquiry for free. Our exchange rates are up to 5% better than offered by banks. Take the first step to making the most of your currency now.