Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast

Sterling/Euro rates fall ahead of ECB meeting this week 

Pound/Euro rates have recovered in the last week, partly due to some positive UK employment data, but also due to speculation the European Central Bank (ECB) may announce further stimulus this week. Interest rates there are as low as they can go (0.05%), and in order to ward of the threat of deflation, they may have to increase their stimulus measures. I don’t think they’ll announce anything on Thursday, but it’s important to listen out for any hints the ECB president Mario Draghi may give in his press conference. 

To me it’s quite obvious that their QE programme will need extending, and that’s why the Euro has been weakening off in recent days as this eventuality gets priced into the market. However today the market starting correcting itself, pulling GBP/EUR back down to around the €1.36 level as you can see from the chart below. If he does hint at further measures, there may be a short term spike in GBP/EUR rates. 

If you need to buy Euros, then it’s worth looking into placing a ‘Limit Order’ to take advantage of any spike we may see. This works by placing a target level with me that may be above the current rate. If the market does spike and your level becomes available, your trade is executed automatically and your currency is purchased. 

What else could affect exchange rates this week? 

Wednesday 21st October 2015 – Today the UK government releases its Public Sector Borrowing figures, which show the amount of debt they hold. The last release showed a deficit of £11.3bn, and today I expect this number to be around £9bn. If it’s higher than this, then Sterling exchange rates could fall, and vice versa. Later in the day there is another Speech by BoE Governor Mark Carney, and any hints about UK interest rates could also affect the Pound. Elsewhere, those with an eye on GBP/CAD rates should look out for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate decision and policy statement. 

Thursday 22nd October 2015 – It’s quiet in the UK today, but over in the Eurozone we have the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on interest rates. As I mentioned at the top of this report, while it’s highly unlikely interest rates will change, the press conference at 13:30pm is very important for Sterling/Euro buyers, because there may be hints at further stimulus in the EU. If that proves to be the case, expect the Euro to weaken pushing GBP/EUR higher. Elsewhere, the USA has Jobless data and House Price info. 

Friday 23rd October 2015 – Nothing for the UK today, but GBP/EUR could be affected by EU and German inflation numbers. Canada and the USA also release inflation numbers today that could affect GBP/CAD and GBP/USD respectively. 

If you would like to find out more about what moves exchange rates, or would like a quote on your exchange, then send me a free enquiry by clicking below. 

Contact me to discuss your currency exchange and get a quote. 

Sterling/Euro rises from €1.3350 to €1.3550

Thursday 15th October 2015 
Sterling/Euro rates have recovered very well in the last few days, rising from the €1.33’s to €1.3550 today. In today’s post I’ll explain the reasons for the gains, and what action those with Euros to buy or sell can take to help achieve the best exchange rates. First, a quick look at this week’s GBP/EUR graph: 

Why have Sterling/Euro rates risen? 

As you can see from the chart above, early in the week Sterling/Euro fell to €1.3350, the lowest it’s been since February. As I explained in my recent post, the drop was due to very low inflation numbers that weakened the Pound. 

Since, then we’ve seen the rate gain nearly 2 cents to €1.3550, so what’s been going on? Yesterday morning it looked like the Pound would continue to drop, as UK jobs data was released at 09:30am. The Claimant count was pretty dire, and showed that there were nearly 7000 more people claiming benefits than forecast. The Pound fell to €1.3350 on the news, but quickly recovered. 

This is because when you actually look at the figures in more detail, you see that the number in work actually rose by 140,000, bringing the employment rate to 73.6% - the highest rate since records began in 1971. This caused the Pound to gain, and in addition, wage growth has gathered pace much faster than the Bank predicted earlier this year, and this may allow the Bank of England to deliver the first hike in May next year, according to the chief economist at BNP Paribas. 

This morning, European Central Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny said that it was now "obvious" the bank must do more to stimulate the euro zone economy. This signals further Quantitative Easing may be required in Euro, and the single currency has weakened further this morning pushing rates up to the mid €1.35’s. 

Do you have Euros to buy or sell? 

Many clients that had Euros to sell that read my post on Tuesday decided to fix a rate then, and that was a prudent move given the rebound we’ve seen. If you look back at the movements in GBP/EUR this year, you can see the rate has dropped to €1.35 several times, and every time it’s bounced back. This is what we’ve seen happen again this week. 

In contrast, it’s a difficult time for Euro buyers unsure whether to wait to see if rates will recover, or just get the rate locked in now to protect against a further decline. Nobody can foresee whether rates will recover as they did earlier this year, or if the recent trend of Sterling weakness will continue causing rates to drop back away again. It’s important to remember that past performance is not indicative of future trends, however it’s the most salient data that many with a currency transaction to perform will rely on. 

But simply looking at the trend and hoping things will get better could end up costing you dearly. A more proactive approach would be to ensure you are fully informed of both what is moving the market, and the contract types at your disposal to help you take advantage of any spikes we may see in the exchange rate. 

I would welcome the opportunity to speak to any clients about the currency markets, discuss your requirements, assess your needs, and help you to make an informed decision on when to fix a rate. Click below to get in touch, and I will get in touch personally to explain the mechanics of how our service works. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

Sterling falls on poor UK inflation figures

Tuesday 13th October 2015 
Volatility has returned to the markets, and since my last post on Friday we have seen the Pound/Euro rate drop a further 2 cents, dipping into the €1.33’s this morning, and is currently settled at around €1.34 as you can see from the chart below: 

Poor UK Inflation figures weaken Sterling 

The reason for the drop of over 1 cent this morning was due to poor UK inflation figures. This morning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell into negative territory at -0.1%. This is worse than expected, and pours cold water on any hope the Bank of England will be raising interest rates. As the pressure is off the BoE, investors are not going to be buying Sterling in a hurry, and as such the Pound has weakened. The effect on the exchange rate is that levels have dropped off across the board. 

Do you have Euros to convert to Pounds? 

While the market movements today are bad news for those buying a foreign currency with Sterling, those that have Euros to convert back to Pounds will be rejoicing! The current EUR/GBP rate is the best it’s been since January. If you will have Euros or indeed any other currency to convert to Sterling, then it’s worth serious consideration to locking a rate in now. Even if you don’t have your funds available now, you can still use my services to guarantee today’s rate for up to 2 years in to the future, using a ‘Forward contract’. (Click here to send me an enquiry to find out more). 

Need the best exchange rates? 

If you would like to discuss the currency markets to help you decide when to fix an exchange rate, or would like to get a quote for your currency exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker, then click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

I will get in touch with you personally, and often better rates available at banks or other currency brokers by as much as 3%, so it's certainly worth getting in touch to see what I can do for you. 

Click here to get your quote and find out how much you could save.

Different ways you can get the best exchange rates

Thursday 8th October 2015 
The currency markets have been calmer this week, with not as much fluctuation a we have seen in recent weeks. In the chart below, you can see that the Pound/Euro rate in particular has remained range-bound between 1.3550 and 1.3650 in recent days: 

The reason rates are relatively stable is that economic figures have been roughly as expected. UK GDP is around 0.5% which is about what the markets thought. German Exports were down but it didn’t really weaken the Euro much. The Bank of England (BoE) have kept interest rates on hold as expected, and the speeches by the central bank governors didn’t really give any surprises. It’s still the case that the BoE will likely raise rates halfway through 2016 and I don’t expect much Sterling strength until then. 

How to buy currency at the best exchange rates 

Given the relative calm in the markets, I thought today would be a good opportunity to outline the various contracts that I can offer to help you get the best exchange rates and protect you against adverse movements in currency prices. I can source you rates up to 5% better than banks and other brokers may offer, so if you have a currency transaction and would like a quote to compare, then get in touch for free here. 

Here are the main contracts I can offer for currency exchange: 

Spot Contract (Buy your today) – This is the most popular way to buy currency. You fix a rate over the telephone, settle within 2 days, and your currency is transferred by priority transfer to the account of your choice. The rate varies throughout the day as we buy live from the market, and can be up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker may offer. 

Forward Contract (Fix into the Future) –You can fix today’s rate of exchange for up to 2 years, protecting you against volatility and helping you to budget. You lodge 10% of the total to be converted within 2 days, with the remaining balance due when you want your currency transferred. This type of contract really helps budgeting for business’s and those buying or selling property abroad. 

Limit order (Hold out for a better rate) – Secure your currency when your desired rate becomes available; particularly useful if time is on your side and you think the rate may get better. This allows you to aim for a higher rate in the hope that things will get better. 

Stop loss order (Protect against rates dropping) – Your currency is exchanged if the rate goes below a pre-determined level. Combined with a limit order, you can hold out for a better rate while protecting yourself from a sudden fall in the market. This gives you a worst case scenario so you don’t end up paying more than necessary for your currency. 

So that's a brief overview of the main contracts I offer. I also provide a free consultative service for any clients who need the best exchange rates in order to explain what may move the rate, to help you decide when to fix a rate and what contract type to use. Using these types of contract give you control over your currency purchase. The alternative is simply sitting back and hoping the exchange rate will move in your favour. In my experience, hope is not a reliable economic tool. 

To discuss our contract types in more detail and take the first step to taking control of your currency needs, contact me today by sending me a free enquiry by clicking below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry and get a quote.

Why has Pound/Euro fallen to €1.34?

Friday 2nd October 2015
The Pound/Euro rate has fallen sharply today, dropping from €1.36 to €1.3450 as you can see from the chart below: 

Why has the Pound fallen against the Euro? 

It was actually due to data from the United States. At 13:30pm today the USA released their Non-Farm Payrolls data, which shows the number of new jobs created (not including agricultural jobs as they are seasonal, hence the name non-farm). The markets expected 203,000 new jobs, but the actual figure was a dismal 142,000. 

Because the number was worse than expected, investors sold the US Dollar and bought the safe haven Euro, causing it to gain strength and become more expensive to buy. This is why GBP/EUR fell sharply at 13:30pm as you can see from the graph above. You can see the inverse correlation for Sterling/Dollar, which rose as the Dollar weakened: 

 
 
Need the best exchange rates? 

If you would like to discuss the currency markets to help you decide when to fix an exchange rate, or would like to get a quote for your currency exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker, then click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

I will get in touch with you personally, and often better rates available at banks or other currency brokers by as much as 3%, so it's certainly worth getting in touch to see what I can do for you. 

Click here to get your quote and find out how much you could save.

Why has Pound/Euro dropped to €1.36?

Wednesday 23rd September 2015 
Today the much anticipated speech by the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has caused the Euro to gain strength, and this has pushed Pound/Euro rates down to around €1.36 which you can see from the chart below: 

What did Drahi say that caused the Pound/Euro rate to drop? 

In recent days there was speculation that the ECB may either increase their Quantitative Easing programme, or announce a cut in interest rates in order to combat a potential slowing of the Eurozone economy. The market had been partially pricing this into the value of the Euro over the last few days, which is why the Pound/Euro rate had recently hit nearly €1.39. 

For me there was one key part of his speech that caused the Euro to strengthen, pushing exchange rates lower: 

“I am aware that many of you closely scrutinise the potential effect of the low interest rate environment on financial stability; ... let me underline that we are closely monitoring risks to financial stability, but we do not see them materialising for the moment. Should this be the case, macroprudential policy – not monetary policy – would be the tool of choice to address these risks.” 

What on earth does this mean, I hear you ask?! 

In simple terms, he’s saying that he knows everyone was hanging on his words to do with interest rates, but actually if the economy suffers they wouldn’t use interest rates (monetary policy) to maintain financial stability, but rather macroprudential policy (Regulating things like how much you can borrow on mortgages) instead. So in effect he’s saying that there is no chance of an interest rate cut. 

As such the Euro has gained strength and become more expensive to purchase, as I said would be the case in yesterday’s post should there be a lack of any mention of further QE or a rate cut. 

Do you need to exchange currency? 

I don’t just provide a commentary on what moves the exchange rate. I am also the Foreign Exchange manager for one of the UK’s leading currency brokerages. As such, I can help you achieve much better rates than your bank or existing broker may be offering you. 

If you need the best exchange rates, then get in touch with me for a quote for free by clicking here. I can discuss your requirement, explain what is affecting the exchange rate, and help you to make an informed decision on when to fix a rate, and of course provide you a quote to see just how much you could save. 

Click here to get your free quote today.

Pound/Euro rises to €1.39

Tuesday 22nd September 2015 
It’s been an interesting start to the week on the foreign exchange markets. Despite little economic data being released yesterday, the Sterling/Euro rate rose steadily throughout the day before settling around €1.3850. The upwards march continued this morning, with rates touching €1.39, before figures released at 09:30am this morning showed that UK government borrowing was much higher than expected. This halted the steady rise and at the time of writing, GBP/EUR sits just above €1.38: 

UK Interest Rates 

Last week the Bank of England’s chief economist indicated that an interest rate cut could be on the cards. I mentioned in my last post that I thought that unlikely, and today the chancellor George Osborne also indicated that the next move in rates is likely to be a rise. However, I still think that this is still quite a long way off. Indeed the Bank of England deputy governor has suggested that disinflationary forces from abroad meant there was no immediate need to raise interest rates, so I expect this to halt any rise in Sterling. 

European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi to speak tomorrow 

Tomorrow at 2pm, Mario Draghi, the ECB president gives a speech. There is a good chance he will talk about how the EU economy is doing, and I think this could have an impact on Sterling/Euro rates. On the one hand, he might hint that further Quantitative Easing is needed in order to boost the economy, and there are also rumours he may float the idea of an interest rate cut. If one or both of these things happen, then I would expect the Euro to weaken, pushing GBP/EUR rates back towards the €1.40 level. If however neither of things are mentioned and he is positive about the economy, then we could see the pair drop back away. 

Do you need to buy or sell a foreign currency? 

If you have a currency transfer to make and would like to save money, then get in touch with me for a free quotation. I can also explain the various contract types we offer so that you can hold out for a higher rate than is currently available, without leaving yourself exposed to a sharp drop in the rate. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

Bank of England could cause Pound to fall sharply

Friday 18th September 2015
FED leave interest rates on hold 

Last night the US Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates at their low of 0.25%. There was a small chance that they would raise interest rates but this didn’t materialise. The FED Chair Janet Yellen cited the slowdown in China and emerging markets as the reason to keep the benchmark rate and this has weakened the Dollar making it a little cheaper to purchase. The rate climbed to around $1.5650 but has since started to slip away. They will raise rates at some point, probably early next year, so any rise in the rate should be taken advantage of, as it’s likely the GBP/USD will drop in the medium term.  Therefore if you need US Dollars, consider a 'Stop Loss' order to protect against a sharp drop. I've read forecasts from Barclays Capital with expectations of $1.43 by the end of this year!  

Click here for a quote on US Dollars.

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down? 

The initial reaction to the FED move was for GBP/EURO to fall. There are 2 reasons this happened. Firstly, investors that had lodged funds in USD to take advantage of the possible rate hike moved them back to Euros, causing the single currency to gain. Also, the fact the USA have left rates on hold mean the UK are likely to do the same for many months, and this caused the Pound to weaken slightly. However, throughout today, the rate has clawed its way back up to around €1.37:



Rate cut by the Bank of England could send the Pound lower

The Pound/Euro exchange rate may move lower in the coming months however. A month or two ago, everybody thought the Bank of England would raise interest rates and this had caused the Pound to rise. A hike is now incredibly unlikely any time soon though, and in fact the UK may have to cut interest rates. 

The Bank of England’s chief economist has said that the bank may have to cut rates to combat low inflation, rather than raise. Inflation may not pick up in the second half of the year, and there are risks of fallout from emerging economies, he said in a speech. Should those risks materialise, a rate cut would be a viable option, he said. 

The UK economic recovery has stalled of late. Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon. 

I personally don’t think a rate cut is on the cards, but at the same time there is very little chance of them opting to raise rates. This is likely to keep the Pound low for the coming months. Any clients looking to purchase Euros should therefore consider their options to ensure they don’t get a lower rate than is necessary. 

Get in touch to discuss your options 

If you need to buy or sell Euros, or indeed any international currency, then get in touch to discuss your options. I can explain the various ways you can protect yourself against the rate moving against you, and provide a quote for you to compare with your bank or exiting broker. I can typically secure exchange rates up to 3% better than banks and other brokers may offer, which could save you thousands of pounds if you are converting a large sum. 

Send me a free enquiry today

Pound rises on employment data, but will it go higher?

Wednesday 16th September 2015
Today we saw the Pound/Euro rate rise on positive jobs data from the UK. Average earnings and the claimant count were both much better than expected, and you can see from the chart below that this strengthened the Pound, pushing the GBP/EUR rate from €1.36 to €1.3750 before dropping back away. We also had worse than expected inflation numbers from the EU, which helped push the rate higher as the Euro weakened and became a little cheaper to buy. 

Will the Pound continue to go up against the Euro? 

This is the question I’m asked daily by my clients looking for the best exchange rates to buy Euros. It is of course impossible to predict what will happen, but I don’t think the rate will get higher in the short to medium term. Indeed the current strength of the Pound is a problem for the Bank of England as it makes our exports more expensive, so if the rate does continue to climb, then I would expect the BoE to make noises about an interest rate being a long way off, in order to weaken the Pound to stop it hindering the economic recovery. 

Yes, the rate has fallen from the 8 year highs of €1.40+ we were enjoying last month. Those that need to buy Euros however should consider that the rate is still significantly better than when it was at €1.25 at the start of this year, so in the grand scheme of things it’s still a good time to buy Euros. 

It’s important to remember the only reason rates were so high before was 1) due to weakness in the Euro due to the Greek debt crisis that has now been resolved and 2) speculation interest rates were going to rise in the UK, which is no longer the expectation. For these 2 reasons I don’t think the rate will get back to €1.40 until into 2016, so if you need to buy Euros then consider fixing a rate sooner rather than later. (Click here to get a quote on your exchange and see how much you could save using my currency exchange services). 

All eyes on the FED 

Tomorrow’s decision by the Federal Reserve on US interest rates is the most anticipated for a very long time. The consensus is still that rates will be left on hold however there is a small chance they will increase rates. If they do, expect GBP/USD rates to drop sharply. 

Do you need to convert currency? 

I don’t just provide commentary on the currency markets, I am also the Foreign Exchange Manager at one of the UK’s leading currency exchange companies. I can help you achieve exchange rates much better than bank and existing brokers may offer you. If you need to buy or sell any international currency then get in touch with me today for a free quotation on what I can offer you. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

 

Will the FED raise interest rates this week?

Tuesday 15th September 2015
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, and for the first time in many years, there is actually the chance of a change. It’s widely expected that the USA will be the first major western economy to start pushing interest rates up from the record lows they have been at for many years. 

It’s likely that they will keep them at their record low of 0.25% for another month, however there is a 20% chance that they will raise the benchmark rate to 0.5%. 

What would be the effect on exchange rates if they raise interest rates? 

A hike in interest rates would make the US Dollar an attractive option for investors, due to the higher return they would get on their funds. Therefore, if the FED do indeed raise interest rates I would expect the US Dollar to gain strength and become more expensive to buy, and this would push GBP/USD exchange rates lower. The small chance of a hike will already be priced into the market, so if they leave rates on hold, then GBP/USD may rise slightly. 

Looking further ahead, they are likely to raise rates at some point in the next few months, so I would not expect the GBP/USD rate to remain above the $1.50 mark for long. Most forecasts I’m reading at the moment suggest that the rate to buy Dollars will fall considerably in the medium term. Therefore if you have a requirement to buy US Dollars, click here to get in touch to discuss the ways I can help protect you against the rate moving against you. 

Do you want the best exhcange rates?

If you have a currency transaction to perform there are a number of ways I can be of help. Firstly, I can source rates of exchange that are very close to the published market level, and up to 5% better than banks or other currency brokers can offer. Secondly, with over 15 years’ experience in the FX Markets, I have a very good knowledge of what can affect exchange rates, and can help you to make an informed decision on when to lock in a rate of exchange. 

 I would welcome the opportunity to speak to anyone that needs to get a quote on their exchange and explain how I can help you. Click here to send me your details and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements today.

Send me an enquiry today by clicking here. 

Sterling rises against Euro and US Dollar

Tuesday 8th September 2015 
Sterling has continued to gain against both the Euro and Dollar today, and as you can see from the charts below, we’ve seen rates rise steadily since the lows of last week: 

  GBP/EUR

   

    GBP/USD

Why has the Pound gained against the Euro and Dollar? 

Only a week ago, a raft of quite poor data from the UK had poured cold water on the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) would be able to raise interest rates any time soon, and due to this the Pound had weakened against other currencies. The BoE’s governor Mark Carney also said that the slowdown in the Chinese economy could affect UK inflation, further denting the Pound. 

Despite this however, this week we have seen the Pound fighting back. According to Reuters, the main reason for today’s GBP gains was an agreement from a Japanese insurance firm to buy a British insurer in a cash deal for £3.5bn. This huge demand for the Pound is what drove it up against other currencies. Even against the Euro, we saw the Pound rise by 1.5 cents, despite strong EU GDP data and Trade Balance data from Germany that would normally have caused the Euro to gain strength and cause rates to drop. 

What next for Sterling exchange rates? 

Looking forwards, in my view the next 2 days will be very important indeed for Sterling. Tomorrow we have Industrial and Manufacturing production data for the UK along with a GDP estimate. If these are better than forecast then the Pound may gain further. 

Of more importance though will be Thursday’s Bank of England announcements where the BoE's 9 member Monetary Policy Committee will meet and release minutes from the meeting. Last month just one MPC member voted in favour of an immediate rate hike, and there may well be further clues as to when the UK may begin raising rates. If 1 or more of the members vote for higher rates, then expect the Pound to make further gains. However if the minutes suggest that a rate hike is a long way off, with all 9 members voting to keep the status quo, then the Pound is likely to drop back away wiping out the gains we’ve seen this week against the Euro. 

Remember that EU data was very strong today, if it wasn’t for the huge Sterling purchase by the Japanese earlier today as I mentioned above, then Pound/Euro would actually have fallen today. 

Do you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rate? 

A typical purchase of €250,000 to buy a property abroad has differed in cost by over £11,500.00 in the last month alone, which really illustrates how important it is to get your timing right when fixing your rate of exchange. If you need to convert currency and would like to discuss the market and ways to protect you against market fluctuations, I am happy to speak to any potential clients that would like a quotation to compare what I can offer with their bank or existing currency broker. On average the rates I can provide are 2 to 3% better than available elsewhere which can mean huge savings when converting a large sum. 

Click here to get in touch for a quote

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 7th September 2015 
Good morning. As usual for a Monday, today I will outline this weeks scheduled data releases that could affect exchange rates. 

If you’re reading my blog, the chances are that you have a currency transaction to perform and are looking at what is moving exchange rates. If that’s the case, then why not get in touch to discuss your requirement in more detail and get a quote? 

I can source exchange rates all major currency pairs that are up to 5% better than the banks can offer. We also have several different types of currency contracts that enable you to fix today’s rates for up to 2 years, and ways of booking currency should the exchange rate hit a particular level you may be targeting. Click here to send a free no obligation enquiry today and see how much you could save. 

This week’s data that could affect Sterling exchange rates 

Monday 7th September 2015 – It’s been relatively quiet today on the data front due to a market holiday in the United States. In Europe, the month on month German Industrial production was slightly worse than expected, weakening the single currency slightly and pushing GBP/EUR rates to around €1.37. 

Tuesday 8th September 2015 – There’s no UK data of note today, however GBP/EUR exchange rates could still be affected by some important releases in Europe. In Germany, the latest Trade Balance figures are released. This can be important because if this shows a demand for German exports, then the Euro could gain strength and become more expensive to buy. We also see the latest EU wide Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers today. I expect quarterly growth of 0.3%. Any less than this then expect GBP/EUR to rise, and vice versa. 

Wednesday 9th September 2015 – Some UK data for investors to chew on today, including Industrial & Manufacturing production, a GDP estimate (expected at 0.7%) and House Price data. If we see less growth than expected with any of these, the Sterling is likely to fall. Elsewhere, Canada and New Zealand releases their latest decision on interest rates which could affect GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD rates. 

Thursday 10th September 2015 – Today is the most important day of the week for Sterling, as we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision. Rates are almost certainly going to be left on hold at 0.5%, however immediately after the decision, the governor will release the minutes which will show how the vote went, and what they discussed. If any of the members voted for a rate hike, expect the Pound to gain. Elsewhere, Australia releases lots of Jobs numbers. I think these are quite likely to be poor so expect the AUD to lose out if that’s the case. 

Friday 11th September 2015 – The only UK data of note today is the latest inflation expectations. This can impact future interest rate movements and so might affect Sterling. Elsewhere Germany releases inflation numbers, and the USA has its latest monthly budget statement. 

Do you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rate? 

If you need to convert currency and would like to discuss the market and ways to protect you against market fluctuations, I am happy to speak to any potential clients that would like a quotation to compare what I can offer with their bank or existing currency broker. On average the rates I can provide are 2 to 3% better than available elsewhere which can mean huge savings when converting a large sum. 

Click here to get in touch for a quote 

 

Pound/Euro rises on ECB comments

Thursday 3rd September 2015
After falling 9 cents in the last month, Sterling/Euro rates have staged a slight recovery today, pushing back above €1.37 as you can see from the chart below: 

ECB cuts inflation and growth forecasts 

The reason for the rise in rates wasn’t anything to do with the Pound, but rather the Euro weakening and becoming cheaper to buy. This was because the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its inflation and growth forecasts for the next few years. 

They said that inflation in the Eurozone would probably be very low indeed for years to come and in turn this means that economic growth is unlikely to increase as much as had been thought. The banks president Mario Draghi said it expected inflation to be 0.1% for 2015, rising to 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, dampened by lower energy prices. They also hinted that further Quantitative Easing (QE) may be requried to shore up the economy. QE effectively creates new money to pump into an economy and usually weakens a currency as more of it is in circulation. 

The Euro dropped like a stone on these comments and because all of this means that the EU recovery is not quite as on track as analysts and investors had thought, the result has been a sell-off in the single currency, causing it to weaken and push exchange rates back up to €1.37. 

Do you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rate? 

A typical purchase of €250,000 to buy a property abroad has differed in cost by over £11,500.00 in the last month alone, which really illustrates how important it is to get your timing right when fixing your rate of exchange. If you need to convert currency and would like to discuss the market and ways to protect you against market fluctuations, I am happy to speak to any potential clients that would like a quotation to compare what I can offer with their bank or existing currency broker. On average the rates I can provide are 2 to 3% better than available elsewhere which can mean huge savings when converting a large sum.

Click here to get in touch for a quote

Which way could Pound/Euro rates go September 2015?

Tuesday 1st September 2015 
Good morning and welcome back to my regular currency updates after the Bank Holiday weekend. While here in the UK it was dismal weather, heavy traffic and only the lack of a James Bond movie to complete the typical August Bank holiday hat-trick, over in Europe it was business as usual and markets were open. 

Numbers released yesterday and again this morning from Europe were better than expected, with both Strong German Retail Sales and a better than expected EU inflation numbers giving the Euro a boost. This has pushed exchange rates lower. This morning we saw the Euro gain further strength due to better than forecast EU jobs numbers. 

The Euro has been getting stronger and stronger recently, as those with an eye on the GBP/EUR rate will have noticed. In the last month the rate has plummeted by over 8 cents, seriously affecting those trying to budget for a Euro purchase. As I outlined in a recent post, the reason for the decline is two-fold. Firstly we have the Pound weakening off due to the expectation of a UK interest rate hike being pushed back. The second reason is a stronger Euro due to a resolution of the Greek debt crisis and a resurgent EU economy that now seems to be growing at a steady pace, with the help from the ECB Stimulus seemingly having the desired effect. 

I do think that rates will eventually recover to €1.40 again, but this is now a medium to long term forecast. In the coming weeks and months, if we continue to see strong economic figures from Europe then the single currency could continue to become more expensive. 

Below I’ve listed what I think could affect exchange rates for the coming months. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to discuss what rates I can offer you, then click here to send a free enquiry today. 

What could affect exchange rates in the first week of September? 

There are various things that change exchange rates, for example: Economic data, Political Uncertainty, Natural Disasters and acts of war. The first of these is the only one that is forecast in advance, and below are the main scheduled releases for the week ahead that I think could affect exchange rates. 

If you would like to have a more detailed chat about how the exchange rate you’re interested in could change in the coming weeks or months, then click here to send me a message and I will be happy to answer any questions you may have about timing your currency purchase. 

Monday 31st August 2015 – Yesterday we saw a raft of positive data from Europe, including strong German Retail Sales and higher than expected inflation data. This has pushed GBP/EUR exchange rates lower as the single currency gained in strength. 

Tuesday 1st September 2015 – More positive data was released from Europe this morning showing that German and Italian unemployment was better than expected. This pulled GBP/EUR down from €1.37 to €1.3560. UK data this morning included mortgage approvals that were better than expected, and credit and PMI numbers that were worse. Later today we will see Canadian GDP figures that could affect GBP/CAD rates, and US Manufacturing and Construction data that might change GBP/USD exchange rates. 

Wednesday 2nd September 2015 – We start the day with Australian GDP figure. Later in the morning we see UK Construction figures, and EU wide inflation numbers. Recent EU data has been good and if this continues to be the case, expect GBP/EUR to drop further. In the afternoon, US Employment data, Non-Farm Productivity and Factory orders could all affect cable. 

Thursday 3rd September 2015 – Lots from Europe today that could change GBP/EUR exchange rates, including Inflation data, and the latest ECB interest rate decision. While no change is expected, the press conference afterwards often contains hints about future policy and so could well affect the Euro. Later in the day, US manufacturing and Services PMI could affect GBP/USD. 

Friday 4th September 2015 – the G20 meeting starts today and so any surprises here could affect various currency pairs. Scheduled releases on the calendar other than this include EU GDP figures which I expect to show a monthly growth of 0.3%. In the USA it’s jobs day and the important Non-Farm Payroll numbers. Regular readers will know that this release is very difficult to forecast. The current expectation is for 220,000 new jobs to have been created. Any more than this, then expect GBP/USD to drop, and vice versa.

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Huge exchange rate volatility GBPEUR, GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

Monday 24th August 2015 
It’s incredibly volatile on the currency markets today. Just look at what has happened with Sterling/Euro rates, falling from 1.38 into 1.34's:
  

 
When I opened the trading floor this morning at 8am, GBP/EUR was at 1.38 where it ended on Friday. We have seen the rate drop throughout the day, and at 2.15pm it plummeted to as low as 1.3455 before recovering back into the €1.35’s. This is a huge drop and other currency pairs are seeing extreme volatility, due to global stock rout and economic uncertainty. 

The FTSE 100 has lost 10%, as investors dumped riskier assets and flocked to currencies seen as safe havens on fears about a slowdown in the Chinese and global economies. The Euro has been a huge benefactor, as usual safe havens like Sterling and the US Dollar are suffering. This is because the global slowdown means interest rates are no longer likely to go up in the UK or US any time soon. 

As the Euro gains significant strength, commodity based currencies like the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar continue to weaken as oil prices and other commodities continue to fall in value. 

Click here to view live charts for all currency pairs.

Sterling/Dollar has gone from $1.56 to $1.58 just today, as the Dollar weakens due to the global turmoil. Just look at some of the movements we've seen during trading today:

GBP/USD rises to $1.58:

GBP/NZD has risen by 10 cents in the last half an hour:

 

GBP/AUD rises from $2.16 to $2.22:

 

A panicked and interesting day on the currency markets. 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, then get in touch to find out more about the currency services I offer. From exchange rates up to 5% better than the bank, to tools such as 'Stop Loss' and 'Limit' orders that can protect you against volatility like we've witnessed today, you could save thousands by simply getting in touch for a quote and a chat about how my service works. 

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Why has Pound/Euro fallen into €1.38's?

Friday 21st August 2015
Since my last post on Tuesday, Sterling/Euro rates have fallen from €1.42 into the €1.38's, caused by the Euro gaining strength. 

There are several factors that have caused the single currency to gain. Firstly the news that Greek Prime Minister and Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras stood down on Thursday, paving the way for new elections. This seems to have been taken as a positive move for the Euro and last night the rate starting slipping away. This continued this morning when German and European inflation numbers were better than expected, coupled with worse than expected UK Public Sector borrowing data. 

As you can see from the chart below, in the last week the rate has been in steady decline. With a resolution to the Greek debt crisis, and decent EU economic data, this could well spell the end of the record 8 year high GBP/EUR exchange rates we have seen recently. It’s good news however for those selling Euros, with a typical conversion of €250,000.00 netting £4500.00 more in just a few days. 

China Slow down affects currency markets 

Elsewhere, the slowdown in China continues with stock markets there dropping again. This affects other global currencies because China is such a huge economy. Countries like Australia that export to China are suffering, and so the Aussie Dollar has weakened recently. The US Dollar benefits and gains strength as investors become risk averse and seek safe haven currencies. 

Would you like to discuss your currency requirement and get a quote? 

If you would like to discuss your foreign exchange requirements with me, then feel free to get in touch by clicking here. I provide free consultations over the phone to help you understand what is moving the exchange rate you’re interested in, and can provide you a quote for your exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker. 

I can help anyone looking to convert £5000+ and I can trade nearly all the major currencies including EUR, USD, AUD, CAD, NZD, ZAR, TRY, HKD, SEK, SGD, CNH, HUF, SEK, NOK and many more. 

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GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in 1 week, before recovering to €1.42

Tuesday 18th August 2015 
It’s been an interesting week in the currency markets since my last post a week ago. (Apologies for the lack of updates recently; my girlfriend managed to break her leg quite badly so I’ve had other priorities!)

In the last week we saw Sterling weaken significantly, pulling GBP/EUR rates down from €1.42 back into the €1.39’s. Today however we have seen a significant recovery, and during trading today we have seen the rate shoot back up over €1.42. After a look at the last 7 day GBP/EUR chart I’ll explain what has been causing the volatility. Sterling/Euro over the last 7 days: 

What caused the Pound/Euro rate to fall into the €1.39s? 

It was a combination of poor UK economic data, positive data from Euro, and a 3rd €86bn bailout finally agreed for Greece. 

Let’s start with the UK numbers. Sterling fell sharply last Wednesday as numbers showed that wage growth had slowed, reflecting a slowing of the UK’s economic recovery. In turn the numbers means it’s more and more unlikely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year. Investors duly sold the Pound, causing it to weaken significantly. GBP/EUR fell 4 cents in a 1 week period, which goes to show just how quickly exchange rates can change in the currency markets. 

It was a different story in Europe, with figures showing that the EU economy grew by 0.3%. Even Greece managed 0.8% growth, and it seems that the ECB Stimulus program seems to be working. The Euro gained strength as a result and became more expensive to purchase. 

Finally, Greece was back in the headlines but this time for the right reasons. The 3rd bailout of €86bn has finally been agreed after months of negotiations, which regular readers of my blog will be well aware of. Greece’s debt problems have been one of the main factors weakening the single currency recently, so with the issue finally sorted, the Euro gained against other currencies. All of the above caused the decline in GBP/EUR pushing rates below the key €1.40 level. 

GBP/EUR pushes back above €1.42 

Pound/Euro rates fought back today however. When I returned to work this morning the rate was sat around €1.4050. At the time of writing, we have seen the pair rise by more than 1% to rest just above the €1.42 mark. This morning the latest UK inflation numbers were released and were better than expected. While still very low at 0.1% and well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%, it does mean that we could now see a UK interest rate hike sooner than thought. 

One of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee members Ms Forbes has said that a rate hike took between one and two years to take full effect, and as a result, rates would need to rise "well before" inflation hit the Bank's 2% target. 

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I can offer a quote in almost every currency pair including GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and many more. If you would like a quote, or to discuss which way the exchanges rates may move, then contact me today by clicking below. It costs nothing to make an enquiry, and I can usually save my clients around 2 to 3% on their exchange. This may not sound much, but when converting large sums the savings are thousands of pounds. 

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What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 10th August 2015 
Good morning. As I outlined in Friday’s post, Sterling has fallen against other currencies in recent days. Today I’ll list out the main economic data releases that are likely to cause volatility in exchange rates. After last week’s interest rate speculation for the UK and USA, at the time of writing GBP/EUR exchange rates are a little above €1.41, and GBP/USD rates are in the mid $1.54’s. You can view live rates updated every few seconds including interactive charts by clicking here. 

Remember that if you’re looking for the best deal on currency, in addition to my market updates here on the blog, I can also provide you a quote for your exchange that is likely to be significantly better than your bank or existing broker may offer. Click here to get your quotation today. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

As usual for a Monday, I have listed below this week’s main fundamental data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to get a quote or simply discuss what could affect the exchange rates you’re looking at in the coming weeks, contact me today by clicking here. 

This week's economic data releases

• Monday 10th August 2015 – Today's is relatively quiet on the data front. The only UK release of note is Retail Sales data from the British Retail Consortium released at midnight. Retail Sales are a good barometer of overall economic activity so can affect the Pound. Elsewhere, one of the US Federal Reserve’s members gives a speech at lunchtime. Any further indications of an interest rate hike could cause GBP/USD rates to fall further. 

•  Tuesday 11th August 2015 – Nothing of note from the UK, but GBP/EUR could be affected by an EU wide economic sentiment survey. Germany also releases its economic sentiment measures along with Wholesale prices. Because Germany is the EU’s largest economy, its figures can affect the value of the Euro. 

•  Wednesday 12th August 2015 – Today is the most important one for the Pound, as we have several releases detailing unemployment figures at 09:30am. Unemployment is expected at 5.6%, so any deviation from this figure will affect Sterling exchange rates. Later in the day we have House price data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. Elsewhere Europe has Industrial production figures. The US delivers its monthly budget statement, so all in all lots today that could affect the currency markets. 

•   Thursday 13th August 2015 – Nothing from the UK today, but GBP/EUR could still be affected by German Inflation data, and a European Central Bank Policy meeting. The USA and New Zealand both release their latest Retail Sales figures. 

•  Friday 14th August 2015 – Another busy day from Europe, with Gross Domestic Product figures from Germany, Italy and the EU as a whole. There are also inflation numbers released from Europe today, so a busy morning for the single currency. We end the week with US Industrial Production figures. 

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