Monday 3rd March 2014 It’s been relatively quiet since my last post, and today hasn’t seen much economic data that has affected exchange rates. We have not seen the Pound make any further gains, and we currently have GBP/EUR rates around the 1.2140 mark, and GBP/USD rates a little above $1.67. In today’s post, I will have a look at upcoming events this week that I think will have an impact on rates, including economic data releases and the current instability in Ukraine. Instability in Ukraine to affect exchange rates 
There are various things that affect exchange rates. Economic data is the main one, and in a moment I’ll analyse what we have due to be released this week that I think will move FX rates. Other things that can affect currency rates are natural disasters like floods and droughts. Political events like elections and new policies. Finally terrorism/instability and acts of war can also have an impact. Dominating the headlines at the moment are events in Ukraine. How could this affect exchange rates? Let’s start with the obvious factor – how has it affected the Russian Rouble? I can’t actually trade the rouble, but it’s a good place to start to explain the effects of the current situation. Russia's rouble has fallen to a fresh all-time low against both the dollar and the euro after the political turmoil in Ukraine intensified. So the instability there has weakened their currency. 
Further afield, the unstable situation is likely to affect all major currencies. Due to the uncertainty it’s creating, it will likely mean the global investors seek safety. This may mean that perceived riskier currencies can weaken, and safe haven currencies can strengthen. Safe haven currencies like the US Dollar and Swiss France therefore could gain strength and become more expensive to buy. Risky currencies like AUD, NZD, ZAR for example could weaken and become cheaper to buy. Closer to home, we could see the Pound weaken on the back of the instability, as investors sell it to move to the safety of the US Dollar while geo political negotiations take place. If you need to buy or sell currency, then you can contact me to discuss your options for free, without obligating you in any way. Click here to discuss your currency requirement with me for free. This weeks scheduled economic data releases that could affect rates Monday 3rd March 2014 It’s been relatively quiet today we did have some slightly worse than expected UK data this morning. This afternoon we say some better than expected US data that temporarily caused GBP/USD rates to drop away. Tuesday 4th March 2014 Again a quiet day in terms of data releases. The only UK data of note is construction data released at 09:30am. Most information today is from Australia – an interest rate decision followed by a statement from the RBA. Wednesday 5th March 2014 There is a release of interest from the UK today, an inflation report at 10am that could dictate future interest rate movements and therefore could affect Sterling exchange rates. Elsewhere, the Eurozone has a raft of releases today – Inflation data, Retail Sales and Gross Domestic Product. All of these will give a good idea how the EU economy is preforming and if the numbers are worse than expected we may see the Euro weaken in value. Elsewhere, we have an interest rate decision from Canada followed by a statement from the Bank of Canada. In the United States we see the latest mortgage approval numbers and employment figures. Thursday 6th March 2014 It’s the first Thursday in the month, so we will see the Bank of England and European Central Bank announce their decision on interest rates at 12:00pm and 12:45pm respectively. I expect no chance from either; however comments that follow the decision could have an impact on exchange rates. If there are hints of a rate cut in the EU, Pound/Euro rates may rise. If the BoE however hint that a rate change in the UK is a long way off, expect the Pound to fall in value. Elsewhere today we have Trade Balance and Retail Sales data from Australia, and Jobless Claims from the United States. All in all a busy day so I do expect some volatility in FX rates today. Friday 7th March 2014 We end the week across the pond – Canada releases unemployment data, and the USA has its latest Trade Balance figures, along with Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30pm. This is usually quite different to the forecast number, so expect a choppy day for GBP/USD rates today. There is nothing of note from the UK or EU.
Would you like to achieve the best exchange rates? I can offer exchange rates very close to the ‘mid-market’ rate you see published on this site, which is up to 5% better than your bank can offer you. In addition to exceptional rates of exchange, I can provide a consultative service which allows you to discuss your requirement with me over the phone. In this way you can discover all the options available to you such as Forward contracts and Stop Loss orders, and make an informed choice with regards to when to fix your exchange rate. Getting in touch costs you nothing, doesn’t obligate you in any way, and the savings you make could be very considerable indeed. Click here to make a free enquiry with me today.
Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 26th February 2014 The Pound remains quite well supported against other major currencies, however continues to fail to push any higher. This is due to the fact UK interest rates won't be rising any time soon, and also a resurgent EU economy. If EU growth continues to gain ground, we could see the Euro start to strengthen and become more expensive to buy, which could push Pound/Euro lower again. For those with Sterling to convert, we are currently still close to a 1 year high against the Euro, and a 5 year high against the US Dollar. Yesterday figures published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) that measure the number of home loans issued were better than expected, supporting the Pound at close to 5 year highs on a trade weighted basis (mortgage approvals are seen as a leading indicator of the UK economy). What could affect exchange rates for the rest of this week? Tomorrow (Thursday) we have some key data from the Eurozone, and as the recovery in the EU is starting to quicken, better than expected figures could cause the Euro to strengthen and GBP/EUR rates to dip. The data includes German unemployment & inflation data, EU wide Economic and Industrial confidence measures. Friday could be a key day for where Sterling moves in the coming weeks. The only actual economic release is a measure of consumer confidence. However at 15:30pm we have a speech by the Bank of England governor Mark Carney. There are some further inflation and unemployment figures due from the EU at 10am. Again this could affect GBP/EUR rates depending if the figures are better or worse than forecast. Also on Friday there are lots of economic figures from the United States that could affect Pound/US Dollar rates. We see Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, Consumer Sentiment, and a measure of Home Sales. Click here to discuss how economic data could affect your exchange rate. Will Mark Carney try to weaken the Pound?
Much of the Pound’s strength of late can be attributed to the fact the economy is performing well, and many think interest rates will rise next year – this has been keeping Sterling strong. It will be interesting to see what the BoE governor Mark Carney has to say in his speech on Friday afternoon, and if he mentions the subject of interest rates. Put simply, if his comments support the view of an interest rate hike in the next 12 months, the Pound may rise. If however his comments are seen as negative for Sterling – e.g. he hints that a rate hike is some way off – we could see the Pound drop away. In my view there is a real risk of this happening, because we have already seen the Bank of England have already warned that they do not want a strong pound due to the fact it will hurt our exports and therefore the UK’s economic recovery. So Carney may take this opportunity to talk the Pound lower. Should you buy Euros now or wait to see if rates improve? 
There is unfortunately no way to predict if rates will rise or fall, however there are ways to protect against things getting worse for you. If you need to buy Euros, then the current rate is close to the best in 12 months, and has failed to get any higher in the last few months. We could see the rate increase further; however any doubt over the UK’s economic recovery could quickly mean we see rates drop again. If you need to buy Euros throughout 2014, then a good strategy is either a Forward contract or a Stop Loss Order. A Forward contract allows you to fix the current exchange rate for up to 12 months into the future, but you only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. The remaining 90% you send when you want your Euros to be transferred. This is a good way to protect against the rate dropping, removes all risk from your transaction and allows you to budget effectively. It does not however let you take advantage of any gains should we see rates go higher. If you want to risk holding out for an improvement, then it is wise to place a ‘Stop Loss’ order. This sets a lower limit, and if the rate drops below this we automatically buy your currency for you. In this way you can still take advantage of any gains, however you also have a ‘worst case scenario’ or safety net, so that if we see a sudden drop you don’t lose out more than necessary. Click here to find out more about Forwards/Stop Loss orders Would you like to achieve the best exchange rates? I can offer exchange rates very close to the ‘mid-market’ rate you see published on this site, which is up to 5% better than your bank can offer you. In addition to exceptional rates of exchange, I can provide a consultative service which allows you to discuss your requirement with me over the phone. In this way you can discover all the options available to you such as Forward contracts and Stop Loss orders, and make an informed choice with regards to when to fix your exchange rate. Getting in touch costs you nothing, doesn’t obligate you in any way, and the savings you make could be very considerable indeed. Click here to make a free enquiry with me today. Alastair Archbold
Thursday 21st February 2014It's been a relatively quiet week, without much volatility since my last post. We did see the Pound weaken slightly yesterday, when the latest unemployment figures were releases. While pretty good overall, the total number of 7.2% was slightly worse than analysts had been expecting, and Sterling fell a little as a result. Today however we rates recovered, and at the time of writing GBP/EUR is at 1.2142, and GBP/USD at 1.6655 - both very good buying levels.
In today's post I'm going to have a look at some other events that have happened today that I think could cause the Pound to drop away from the recent highs...
George Osborne warns recovery is 'not secure'
The UK's economic recovery is "not yet secure", Chancellor George Osborne has warned, ahead of next month's Budget. It comes after the Bank of England upgraded its UK growth forecast for 2014 from 2.8% to 3.4%. Experts have raised concerns that improvements are too dependent on consumer spending. The Chancellor added that “Britain is not investing enough. Britain is not exporting enough.”
This last point is key, as to export more would ideally mean a weaker Pound to make our goods cheaper overseas. This could mean the Bank of England try to 'talk down' the Pound in order to try to lower exchange rates.Interest Rates not likely to rise this year 
Martin Weale, an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has today suggested the Bank will not rates this year. "I think it is very helpful if we try and explain that the most likely path for interest rates is that the first rise will come perhaps in the spring of next year,"The main reason the Pound is so strong at the moment is that many analysts thought the recovery would mean rates rising this year. (Higher interest rates attract investment into a country and therefore strengthen its currency.)The fact that rates will now be left on hold for some time yet is in my view the reason exchange rates have stopped rising. Coupled with the risk of a devaluation of the Pound to help our exports, mean that the current levels could be a peak. If you look at recent charts, you will see that we have got to these levels several times in the last few months, before it drops back away again every time. We haven't seen rates break significantly higher, so the current levels may be the peak. How can you protect against rates dropping?
It's impossible to predict where the exchange rate will go of course, but if you need to convert Sterling to Euros in the next 12 months, the current rate is near the best in a year. You don't want to lose out on this should we see the market drop away again. You can protect against rates moving against you in 2 ways. Firstly, you can lock in today's exchange rates for up to 12 months, and only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. This protects you against a fall, allows you to budget effectively, safe in the knowledge you're fixing at a 12 month high
Alternatively if you wanted to gamble on rates improving further, then placing a 'Stop Loss' order allows you to have a safety net in place should your gamble not pay off. This works by placing a lower limit (1.18 for example), and if the market drops to this, we automatically secure your currency. This means you can still take advantage of any gains, but aren't leaving yourself open to ending up with a much worse rate of exchange unnecessarily.Click here to find out more about Forwards and Stop Orders. How to get the best exchange rates. 
These are just 2 examples of the way I can help you with your currency transaction, in addition to proving rates that are extremely competitive - up to 5% better than your bank may offer you. If you need to buy or sell any major currency, and would like to find out more about how I can help you, then send me a free no obligation enquiry today. You can find out all the options that are available, and in doing so make an informed choice about what to do.
Don't simply sit back and hope the rate will be good when you need to convert; hope is not a reliable economic tool. It costs nothing to make an enquiry and discuss your currency requirements. I can provide rates for most of the worlds currencies and trade in both directions e.g. GBP/EUR, EUR/GBP etc. If you are buying property abroad, or perhaps an international business that needs to buy or sell currency at the best rate, I can help you.
Click here to make a free enquiry with me today.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Alastair Archbold
Tuesday 18th February 2014We have seen Sterling lose ground today after lower than expected inflation numbers were released this morning. As you can see from the chart below, GBP/EUR rates slipped around 0.5% but levels remain in the mid €1.21's.
So why exactly does lower inflation cause the exchange rate to drop? The UK's inflation rate, as measured by the consumer prices index, fell to 1.9% in January. The rate fell below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time in more than four years. While this is good for business's and individual consumers, it's not good news for Sterling, and this is to do with interest rates. The fall is likely to underline the Bank of England's message that there is no rush to raise interest rates, as they would usually only do this to combat high inflation. So as the number was lower than expected, analysts believe this has pushed a rate hike further into the future. It has been the speculation of higher interest rates that has been the main reason for the recent rise in rates, so as the data changes, as does the value of the Pound. The net result is Sterling having lower value and rates falling.
Is this a temporary drop? Will rates go back up again?
Tomorrow is a very important day for the Pound, and will likely have a big impact on where exchange rates go in the coming weeks.
At 09:30am tomorrow we will see the latest UK Unemployment figures. The number will probably be just above 7%, but if it's lower than this the Pound may regain some of today's losses.
Also at 09:30am we see the Bank of England minutes, which show the vote and what was discussed a few weeks ago when they left rates and QE on hold. These will be of importance because if the votes and comments show they discussed raising rates, the Pound may rise.
Of course if unemployment is 7.1% of higher, or of the BoE minutes show a consensus rates don't need to go up, then expect the Pound to lose more value and rates to drop further. Exchange rates at multi-year highsIn my recent post I outlined some major currency pairs and how good exchange rates are at the moment. It seems the recent trend of a spike in rates followed by a drop is continuing, so if you need the best exchange rates, why not get in touch to discuss your requirements.
I can explain what is moving the rate, provide you a quote to compare with your existing bank or broker, and you can make sure you are getting the best possible rate.
It costs nothing to make an enquiry, carries no obligation, and the savings can be considerable.
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Alastair Archbold
Friday 14th February 2014Sterling exchange rates have held on to the gains made earlier in the week, due to the Bank of England comments that I talked about in my last post. We are now at multi-year highs against many currencies, so it's a great time to need to convert Pounds to another currency.
Today, I'm going to have a look at some of the most widely traded currencies, including charts to show how the rate has moved over the last 3 months, and the forecast for whether exchange rates will go up or down during 2014.
Sterling/Euro Rates to buy Euros with Pounds are around the best they have been for over a year. This is due to the strong UK economy. Even data today that showed the Eurozone is growing at a faster rate than expected did little to dent the rate, and we remain around €1.22. It's hit these levels several times over the last few months only to drop away again. Whether that will happen again, or if these levels will now be sustained remains to be seen. The BoE hinted this week that it’s not happy with rates being too high, so one danger is they will try to weaken Sterling should it rise much further. Euro buyers should consider a Stop Loss order to protect against a downturn, but should the market keep rising you can still take advantage. Personally I expect the rate to go up further as the year goes on, but not until the summer when I expect it to be around the €1.25 level. Click here to get a EUR quote Sterling/US Dollar The current rate to buy Dollars is the best in nearly 3 years. Again Sterling strength is part of the story, but the USD weakening in recent months has also had an impact. I don’t expect rates to keep rising against the US Dollar. The US economy is slowly starting to follow the UK in building back towards sustainable growth. So at this continues, the USD will likely gather strength which would pull the rate lower. So if you need to buy USD, consider locking the rate in while it is so good. Click here to get a USD quote Sterling /Australian Dollar Only last year the GBP/AUD rate was at a 20 year low, however has risen over 20% in value since then which is remarkable. Right now the rate is the best it’s been in over 4 years. Again the Pound is strong which has helped, but most of the gains have been due to the AUD weakening. They have cut interest rates recently, may do so again, and the fact China’s economy has slowed down quite a bit has meant that there is less demand by them for Australia’s raw materials which are a huge export. Given the huge increase in the rate, I can’t see it going that much higher in the short to medium term. If China’s economy picks up again, expect the rate to drop back away. If I needed to buy AUD any time soon, I would look at the charts and think that going from a 30 year low to a 4 year high is no bad thing, and would want to put some protection in place to make sure I don’t lose out. Click here to get a AUD quote Sterling/New Zealand Dollar GBP/NZD sits around $2 to the Pound at the moment. We haven’t seen the same trends we’ve seen with the Aussie, due to the fact the NZD hasn’t weakened as much as they don’t export raw materials like Australia. Despite this, the rate is still around the best it’s been in 18 months, and 10% higher than last year. We’ve not seen much of an increase recently, and I can’t see it going much above 2% as New Zealand has much higher interest rates than us. Click here to get a NZD quote Sterling/South African Rand GBP/ZAR has risen in value by 45% in the last 4 years. That is not a typo! Back in 2011 rates were just above 10 rand to the Pound; right now it’s over 18 to the Pound. It’s only hit these sorts of levels twice in the last 13 years.The Rand has weakened enormously in recent years due to a big drop in mining, political problems, and investors looking elsewhere to emerging markets. If I needed rand, a 45% increase in value is all I would really need to know – of course it may go higher still, but why hold out for an inch and risk losing a mile. Click here to get a ZAR quote Do you need competitive exchange rates? The above is a quick snapshot of my view of some main currencies I can offer. I trade nearly all major currencies such as EUR, USD, JPY, CHF, CAD, NZD, AUD, ZAR, HUF, DKK, SEK, AED, SGD, THB, CNY, PLN to name just a few. If you are looking for the best exchange rates, you can get in touch with me for a free quote. Usually the rates I can offer you are up to 5% better than the banks can offer. So contact me today to have a brief chat regarding the currency pair you are interested in, and I can explain how my service works and the rates I can offer. Even if you currently use a broker elsewhere, taking a few minutes to compare the rates on offer can save you a significant sum. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. Have a great weekend. Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 12th February 2014 Sterling has gained significant strength today following the Bank of England’s inflation report, and the press conference by Governor Mark Carney that followed. In today’s post I will look at exactly what he said, the effect it had on Sterling exchange rates, and what may happen to currency rates in the coming weeks. Pound gains strength on Mark Carney’s BoE speech. 
This morning at 10.30am the Bank of England published its quarterly inflation report, and this was followed by a speech from the BoE governor Mark Carney. You can read a full report on his comments here on the BBC website.In effect the speech caused the Pound to rise against other currencies by around 1%, pushing GBP/EUR rates to €1.22 and GBP/USD up to $1.6550 – excellent buying levels for both currencies. The main reason for the gain was an increase in the UK’s growth forecasts. The Bank revised up its projection for UK growth to 3.4% this year, from a previous projection of 2.8%. This gave Sterling a nice boost and caused exchange rates to rise. You can see from the chart below the effect it has had so far on Sterling/Euro:So is the Pound likely to go up or down in the coming weeks? The Pound will likely remain strong at current levels, so the direction of exchange rates, GBP/EUR in particular, will now rest on what happens in the Eurozone. European growth is quite poor, and there is the chance they may have to cut rates. This could cause the rate to rise further. 
This afternoon at 15:30pm there will be a speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi. If he hints at a rate cut, Pound/Euro may rise higher still. If however he hints rates will remain low for the time being, we could see the spike today retract back to the €1.20’s. There is also the persistent strength of sterling which adds to the BoE’s challenges. If the Pound gets much stronger and the Eurozone continues to face problems, it’s going to affect our exports which means any further gains could be limited as the BoE moves to keep in check any significant rise in the Pound. Carney also said that interest rates in the UK will remain low for some time to come, adding that while he wouldn’t be a pessimist about the ability to return to (normal) rates, it is well beyond the forecast horizon of the Bank of England. What can you do if you need to buy or sell Euros? Euro buyers should look at today’s gains and consider that we are less than 1 cent away from a 13 month high. We’ve got to these levels several times in the last few months, and each and every time the rate drops back away within several days. You may wish to fix a rate now to take advantage of the gains. You can do so even if you don’t need your Euros for up to 2 years, by lodging 10% of the total you want to convert, and I can guarantee your rate on the full amount. If you are selling Euros and moving them back to Sterling, then today’s events have pushed rates the wrong way for you. I don’t expect the mid-market level to drop below €1.20, and bad news for the Eurozone would cause rates to move further against you. A stop loss order is a good strategy to employ in the current conditions. Get in touch to discuss your options. How to go about getting the best rates, at the best time The first step is to get in touch with me to take advantage of a free consultation over the telephone. I can discuss your particular requirements and timescales, and then let you know the different options you can consider, such as Stop Loss Orders and Forward contracts. You can then make an informed decision on when to fix a rate. When you decide to do so, I can provide you a quote to compare with your bank. The rates I can source are up to 5% better than banks usually offer, so you can save a considerable sum by taking advantage of my services. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now. Alastair Archbold.
Monday 10th February 2014 
Good afternoon. It’s been a very quiet start to the week, with no significant data releases, and so exchange rates haven’t varied much today. Sterling/Euro remains a little above €1.20 and Pound/Dollar sits at $1.64. Other currencies such as the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and South African Rand (ZAR) etc. are still very cheap to buy, following a weakening of many of the world’s emerging economies. This week will be key for how the Pound/Euro rate in particular performs over the coming weeks and months, as we have key data from the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB). Below I have listed all this week’s data that I think will have an effect on exchange rate. To discuss your particular currency requirement, and how economic data could affect your rate, click below to send me a free enquiry. I can explain the options, discuss which way the market may go, and provide you a quote that could be up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker will offer you. Click here to make a free enquiry now. This weeks economic data releases that could affect exchange rates Monday 10th February 2014 It has been very quiet today, with the only release of note Investor confidence data from the Eurozone. Despite this being a little better than expected, it hasn’t had any effect on exchange rates. Tuesday 11th February 2014 Today will probably also be quite quiet as there are no EU or UK releases of any interest. Over in the USA however, we have a speech by the new FED chief Janet Yellen. It will be interesting to see if her approach differs from her predecessor, and any hints on what direction she will take with the economy could be reflected in GBP/USD rates Wednesday 12th February 2014 I think today is the most important of the week for exchange rates. In the UK we will see the Bank of England governor Mark Carney deliver the BoE’s quarterly inflation report. The recent strength of the Pound has been on the back of good data increasing the chance of an interest rate hike. I think he will use his speech to clarify their ‘Forward Guidance’ policy. If he hints rates will not rise soon, expect the Pound to fall in value. We also have the ECB president giving a speech at 15:30pm, and again his comments on inflation and interest rates could change the value of the Euro. So all in all it’s likely to be quite a volatile day for Sterling/Euro rates. Thursday 13th February 2014 Today is quiet in the UK, but we do have some important data from elsewhere. The ECB releases its monthly report, and Germany has a raft of inflation numbers. In Australia, we have the latest unemployment figures that could affect GBP/AUD. Over in the states at lunchtime we also have Jobless numbers, along with their latest Retail Sales numbers and another speech by FED chief Janet Yellen. Friday 14th February 2014 Europe releases GDP figures for Germany, France and the EU as a whole today. This will give investors a good idea how the economy is faring, so bad news could cause the Euro to weaken. We end the week with Industrial Manufacturing data from the United States. Getting the Best Exchange Rates - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
- Unsure when to go ahead and fix a rate?
- Keen to get a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker?
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now and I can get in touch to discuss any of the above with you to help you decide what to do. I look forward to hearing from you.
There are various things that affect exchange rates. Economic data is the main one, and in a moment I’ll analyse what we have due to be released this week that I think will move FX rates. 
