Will Pound go up or down against Euro this week?

Tuesday 18th  March 2014
The Pound has fallen again today, dropping as low as €1.19 before settling at that level. There hasn't been any data of note from the UK today, so this is simply the market positioning itself ahead of tomorrows key day for the currency markets. 

What will affect exchange rates in the next few days?

The next 24 hours will be key for exchange rates, so the following information is important if you need to buy or sell currency at the best exchange rates. Firstly I will look at the key events, and what effect they may have on the market. I will then give my view on what effect this could have on rates, specifically the Sterling/Euro exchange rate. 

Later this afternoon at 17:45pm we have a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. This could affect exchange rates depending on his comments. If he were to be very upbeat about the UK economy including growth forecasts, then we could see Sterling bounce back. What we're looking for is any hints that interest rates may have to rise, as this would strengthen the Pound. If however he does the opposite and indicates that a rate hike is some way off, then Sterling could fall.

Tomorrow morning at 09:30am we have 2 key releases. Firstly the Unemployment figures are released. If the number is 7.2% or higher, then expect the Pound to fall. If it's lower than this, then the Pound will likely rise in value. 

At the same time, the BoE releases it's minutes which show how they voted, and what was discussed, in their recent meeting to hold interest rates. Much like Carney's speech, we're looking for hints as to their policy on interest rates and growth. Positive comments will cause Sterling to rise.  We then have the Budget at 12.30pm. While this will generate the most headlines in the news, I think it will have little impact on exchange rates as I don't expect any surprises in terms of the UK economy.

So does this mean the Pound/Euro rate will go higher or lower?

Unfortunately it's impossible to predict which way the market will go. What I can do however is give my views on what's happening to help you make an informed decision on when to fix a rate. 

My personal view is that we will see the rate recover tomorrow. It's dipped for several days in a row now, falling from recent highs of €1.22 down to €1.19. The UK economy is still fundamentally strong, so I think the figures tomorrow will support this view, and I expect rates to be sat back at €1.20 by the end of this week. We'll have to wait and see whether I'm right or not! I don't expect it to break through €1.20 for some time though, as it's a key resistance level.

Having a good knowledge of the market can save you thousands it you need to buy or sell currency at the best rate. If I had to convert Euros to Pounds I would want to move quickly to take advantage of the current rate - it's the best it's been all year. 

If I was buying Euros, I would probably hold off to see what effect tomorrows data will have. I wouldn't want to risk losing out though, so I would do one of two things. I would either hedge my bets and secure half of my currency now, allowing me to take a risk on the other half. This reduces exposure to the market by 50%, but still allows you to take advantage of any rise. 

Alternatively, I would place a Stop Loss order, which lets you place a limit below which your exchange rate is fixed - €1.18 for example. In this way you can still take advantage of any gains in the rate, but have a safety net should the market keep dropping.

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

I can help with market knowledge, various contract types, and can source exchange rates that are significantly better than the banks usually offer, sometimes by as much as 4% or 5%. If you need to convert currency, then it will do you no harm to contact me for a quote to compare.  

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

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You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm UK time.

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Pound/Euro rises to €1.20 on ECB rate cut hint

Wednesday 20th November 2013 
So the Bank of England news this morning was a bit of a damp squib, with all 9 members voting to hold QE and interest rates, so didn’t have much effect on exchange rates. 

However, the Pound/Euro rate has shot back up to €1.20 this afternoon, after a surprise indication that the European Central Bank may cut the deposit rate to negative. So in today’s post I’m going to explain why this has caused the rate to go up, and analyse whether it will keep rising or drop back away. 

Pound/Euro rates shoot up to €1.20 

A report from Bloomberg this afternoon hinted that the European Central Bank may reduce the deposit rate to negative. 

This effectively means that commercial lenders that deposit funds with the ECB getting less return, or even potentially have to pay to lodge funds with them. These rumours caused investors to sell the Euro, and this has caused it to weaken and become cheaper to buy. 

As you can see from the chart above, there was an immediate reaction to the news, and Pound/Euro rates climbed to €1.20, a cent higher than we started the day. What is interesting is that this is not a scheduled release, which is usually what causes exchange rates to move, as I outlined in my last post.

This shows that while it's usually scheduled data releases that move the rate, surprises like this can also have an immediate effect.

For those that need to buy Euros, this is great news as the rate is now back to the highest it has been since January. Of course the key question is whether the rate will continue to climb, or drop back away. 

Will rates keep rising or drop back away?

This is impossible to forecast of course, but in my view these gains will not be sustained. We have seen the rate hit €1.20 several times in recent weeks, however each and every time this happens, the gains are short lived, the Euro fights back and the exchange rate drops again. 

This is partly due to the fact this is a key technical level, at which many automatic orders to buy Euros are triggered. As the market is then buying Euros again, it gives it strength and the rate drops away. 

Another reason I think rates could drop back is that the Bank of England don’t want a high exchange rate – it makes exports more expensive and so should rates hold firm above this level, we may see the BoE move to weaken the Pound to bring rates back in check. 

Indeed since we hit €1.20 at about 4pm this afternoon, rates have remained there and have failed to rise further. 

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If you are buying Euros 

Consider taking advantage of the best rates all year. Even if you don’t need your funds for some time, you can fix today’s rates for up to 2 years, and only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. 

This protects you against rates falling, and allows you to budget effectively. Especially useful if you need Euros to buy property abroad or to pay for goods from the Eurozone.

Get a GBP/EUR quote.

If you have Euros to move back to Pounds 

For those selling Euros, the rate has moved against you. As we may see rates drop back away, I would place a ‘Stop Loss’ order that protects you should the market keep rising, but allow you to take advantage if the rate moves back down.

This gives you a worst case scenario and again allows effective budgeting without leaving things to chance.

Get a EUR/GBP quote.

If you need great exchange rates make a free enquiry today. 

Regardless which currency you need to convert, I can help you achieve excellent exchange rates that can be significantly better than your bank or existing broker may offer. Make a free enquiry with me by following the link below, and find out more about the service and rates I can offer. 

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Alastair Archbold

Pound falls after poor UK Retail Sales.

Thursday 19th September 2013
Good afternoon. Since my last post, we’ve seen quite a bit of volatility in the currency markets. I mentioned a few days ago that the markets had been flat, and that I predicted the Bank of England (BOE) minutes and UK Retail Sales would probably cause some movements in the value of the Pound/Euro rate, and indeed they did. We have also seen some news from the US Federal Reserve that has caused a big change in GBP/USD rates.

So let’s take a look at what’s been happening…

Bank of England minutes push the Pound higher

Yesterday we saw that the Bank of England has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK economy when they released the latest minutes from their Monetary Policy Committee. You can read the minutes here if you so wish!

The minutes show that third-quarter growth is expected to be 0.7%, up from 0.5%. The minutes also show that the MPC voted unanimously to keep interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) on hold this month.

It had a big impact on the value of the Pound, which rose against other currencies. Climbing to €1.1960 against the Euro – around the best it’s been all year. The gains were not to last however, as today’s UK Retail Sales news pulled the Pound down again. More on that in a moment.

US FED weakens the US Dollar significantly

Overnight, the US central bank unexpectedly said it would not begin scaling back its massive economic stimulus programme until the US economy had improved further. The bank also cut its growth forecast. So pretty much the exact opposite of what the Bank of England did.

The result was the opposite also – the Dollar weakened significantly, pushing the GBP/USD rates to as high as $1.6150 – the highest it’s been all year.

As with the Pound/Euro rate, the all year highs were short lived due to some poor UK economic news…

UK Retail Sales disappoint

This morning at 09:30am the latest UK retail sales numbers were released. Most analysts thought they would show a rise of 0.4%. Not to be – the actual figure showed a drop of 0.9% and this was a big surprise.
The currency markets don’t like surprises, and as Retail Sales are seen as an indicator of consumer confidence, and therefore the economy as a whole, the Pound lost quite a bit of value.


As you can see from today’s graph, the Pound fell as soon as the number was released, pulling GBP/EUR rates to €1.1860 and GBP/USD rates to $1.6090.

Getting the best exchange rates

I mentioned in my last post that rates seemed to have levelled off, and indeed it looks like recent highs may well have been a peak. The current buying levels are still very good however.

So if you need to convert Pounds to another currency, or convert a foreign currency back to Sterling, you should get in touch with me to find out the rates that I can offer.

I provide commercial rates of exchange to both private and corporate clients that are much better than banks can offer. Get in touch with me today to find out more.

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Pound remains at €1.19 vs Euro, near 8 month high

Tuesday 17th September 2013 
Good afternoon. Sterling remains strong, however has failed to rise significantly above the €1.19 level against the Euro. GBP/EUR rates remain around the best since January. The Pound has however hit an 8 month high against the US Dollar after Lawrence Summers, perceived by the market as more likely to favour a quick scaling back of monetary stimulus, pulled out from the race to be the next Fed chief. So in today’s report: 

• UK inflation drops weakening Pound 
• Pound/Euro remains close to best it’s been since January 
• US Fed member drops out of race to be FED chief, weakening US Dollar 
• German Economic figures better than expected, weakening Euro. 
• UK Retail Sales and BoE Minutes this week expected to affect Pound 
• How to get the best exchange rates 

UK inflation drops weakening Pound 
 

Figures this morning showed a slight fall in inflation, which has pulled the Pound lower. Inflation measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) fell to 2.7% in the year to August, from 2.8% in July. 

CPI is important because it is the measure targeted by the Bank of England's interest rate-setters, while the RPI is used for annual adjustments in some benefits and rail fares. The Bank targets CPI inflation of 2%, but is currently holding off raising interest rates to control inflation because the unemployment rate is too high. 

A high figure usually strengthens the Pound, and because the number was slightly lower than expected the Pound weakened slightly, pulling down exchange rates. 

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German Economic figures better than expected, weakening Euro. 

 Also pulling GBP/EUR rates down was better than expected numbers from Germany. Economic sentiment is better than analysts had been predicting, and so this gave the Euro strength, making it more expensive. As a result we have seen GBP/EUR rates fall slightly. 

Pound/Euro remains at a good level 

As you can see from the chart, the Pound/Euro rate remains close to the best it’s been since January. It’s been at this level for a week or two now, and for a few days it rose above the €1.19 level, however the figures mentioned above have pulled it back to €1.19 again. 

 
This is a very good buying level, but seems to have levelled off and we haven’t seen any significant gains. The main thing that I think will move the rates next will be tomorrow’s minutes from the Bank of England, and UK Retail Sales on Thursday. 

Tomorrow the BoE will release its minutes, showing how the members voted at their recent decision to keep interest rates and QE on hold. They will be interesting because it will show what was discussed, and could indicate future decisions on QE and interest rates. If there are any indications any of the members wanted more QE, we may see the Pound fall. 

Retail Sales on Thursday are important as they are a good barometer of overall economic activity. I expect the figures to show a month on month gain of 0.5%. If the actual figure is higher than this, then expect exchange rates to rise. If the number is lower, then we will probably see the Pound fall in value. 

If you are looking for the best exchange rates, click here to get a free quote.

US Fed member drops out of race to be FED chief, weakening US Dollar 

The Pound rose to an 8 month high against the US Dollar earlier this week, after Lawrence Summers, perceived by the market as more likely to favour a quick scaling back of monetary stimulus, pulled out from the race to be the next Fed chief. The dollar fell broadly as it means it will probably be Janet Yellen that takes over the next chair of the Federal Reserve - she is expected to rapidly reduce U.S. bond-buying. This meant the US Dollar weakened, became cheaper to purchase, and GBP/USD rates rose. 

Due to the poor inflation numbers today however, we’ve seen the rate drop back away. 

Are you looking for the best exchange rates? 

I update this blog to keep my existing and potential clients abreast of what is happening with exchange rates. If you need to convert Pounds into another currency, or indeed move a foreign currency back into Sterling, I can help you achieve the best possible exchange rates. 

The rates I can achieve are up to 5% better than banks can offer, so if you are buying or selling property abroad, need to top up your Euro account, or need to pay for goods or services in a foreign currency, why not find out what rates I can offer. 

• You can send me a free enquiry now by clicking here. 
• You can email me directly by clicking here. 
• You can call me directly on +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

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I look forward to hearing from you.

Pound/Euro at 2 month high following unemployment figures

Wednesday 14th August 2013 
Good afternoon everyone. Since my last post, Sterling has continued to make gains, helped by strong unemployment figures this morning. In today’s report I’ll have a look at this which has caused the gains for the Pound, the latest news that the EU has emerged from recession after 18 months, and what the latest Bank of England minutes mean for exchange rates in the short to medium term. 

So in today’s report: 

• Strong Unemployment figures cause Pound to rise
• Pound/Euro at 2 month high 
• EU exits recession after 18 months, but Euro fails to strengthen 
• Latest minutes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee 
• Data for the next 7 days that may affect exchange rates 

Strong Unemployment figures cause Pound to rise 

The latest UK unemployment figures were released this morning, they made good reading and the Pound has risen as a result. While unemployment held steady, which had been expected, the outlook was much brighter, as the number of people looking for work fell 4,000 to 2.51 million in the second quarter, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. 

Jobless claims declined for the ninth straight month by 29,200 to 1.44 million, taking the rate to 4.3pc, the lowest since February 2009 and the number of people in employment rose by 69,000 in the three months to June to 29.78 million, compared to the three months to March. 

So what does it all mean for exchange rates? Well, today's unemployment figure has added significance after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney last week announced that interest rates would not be raised from their record low of 0.5pc until the unemployment rate fell from its current level of 7.8pc to below 7pc. Mr Carney said it meant that more than 750,000 extra jobs would have to be created before the end of 2016 for rates to start rising again. 

As the latest numbers are heading in the right direction, it gave Sterling a decent boost, and helped push exchange rates through the €1.17 level vs. the Euro, which is the highest in 2 months.

If you're looking for the best Pound/Euro rates, send me a free enquiry now by clicking here. 

EU exits recession after 18 months, but Euro fails to strengthen 

The Eurozone has emerged from recession after a record 18 months of economic contraction. Their GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2013, slightly ahead of forecasts, the Eurostat agency said. However, the overall figure masks the mixed economic fortunes among the countries that make up the 17-country Eurozone area. 

It didn’t have much impact on exchange rates though. To be honest they were expected to exit recession anyway, and while it’s good news, it was already priced in to the market. This meant the Euro did not strengthen any further, and the markets brushed off the data. There was no impact on Pound/Euro rates. 

Should the EU continue to post robust figures however, we could see the single currency start to gain strength. This may cause GBP/EUR rates to drop back away. 

Worried about GBP/EUR rates dropping? Send me a free enquiry to discuss your options. 

Latest minutes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee 

Bank of England governor Mark Carney received almost complete support for his new forward guidance policy from his colleagues on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The latest MPC minutes show eight out of nine of the MPC's members voted for the strategy at its August meeting. 

Meanwhile, all nine MPC members agreed that the £375bn asset purchasing programme, known as quantitative easing (QE), should remain in place and that interest rates should hold steady at 0.5%. 

Again mostly this was expected, but the unanimous support did give the Pound a boost, compounding the unemployment numbers – the net result was a good rise in Pound/Euro rates today. 

Want to take advantage of the good Pound/Euro rates? Send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Summary 

Pound/Euro is now at a 2 month high. There is still much uncertainty, so if I needed to buy Euros I would strongly consider fixing a rate now to take advantage of the gains, and protect against a possible downturn in rates. With the EU exiting recession, more good news could make the Euro expensive again. 
 
For those selling Euros back to Pounds, in recent weeks it was a 2 year high. We’re drifting away from that now, with the Pound gaining lots of strength in the last few weeks, and rates are now moving against you. 

 To get the best exchange rates, timing is very important. IN order to get the timing right, you need a good currency broker on your side to explain what is moving the market, your options, and different ways to approach getting the best exchange rate. 

If you need the best rates of exchange, send me a free enquiry now by clicking here. I can discuss your requirements and help you get rates that are up to 5% better than banks offer. 

Are you looking for the best exchange rates? Send me a free enquiry now.

Data for the next 7 days that may affect exchange rates 

Below I list the main data releases for the next 7 days which I think could have an effect on exchange rates. If you would like to know the specific data releases that might affect the currency you need to buy or sell, send me a free enquiry now. 

Thursday 15th – Quite quiet today as EU markets are closed for Assumption day. In the UK we have some Retail Sales figures which are a pretty good barometer of overall economic activity. Other than that all data is stateside: inflation data, Jobless Claims and Industrial Production. 

Friday 16th – Nothing of note from the UK today. We do have Trade Balance numbers and CPI data from the Eurozone, so we may see some movement in GBP/EUR rates despite no UK data. In the USA we have Building permits and a consumer sentiment survey. 

Monday 19th – Unusually there is no data of note today. At all. 

Tuesday 20th – Again quiet in the UK, in fact the only interesting data is Import and Export numbers from Germany along with some minor German inflation data. 

Wednesday 21st – UK Public sector borrowing figures are released today. Also we have the FOMC minutes that could affect GBP/USD exchange rates. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Pound/Euro falls after BoE MPC vote. Will GBP/EUR keep falling?

Wednesday 20th February 2013 

Good morning. Sterling has dropped again dramatically this morning, after The Bank of England released the minutes to its latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting, showing that some members voted for more Quantitative Easing. In today’s post I will look at the effects of the news, and what this means for those looking for the best exchange rates. 

Bank of England minutes

At 09:30am this morning, the minutes were released. It looks like the Bank of England took a dovish tone, as it showed that three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for an increase in quantitative easing, including Bank governor Sir Mervyn King. 

The members of the rate-setting committee showed the nine-member committee split 6-3 in favour of holding the asset purchasing programme at £375bn, but the fact that 3 voted for more QE, including the governor, weakened Sterling significantly as you can see from this morning’s daily chart below. You can read a full breakdown of the minutes here on the Bank of England site.

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So why has this weakened the Pound? 

It’s because there is now a very high chance of further Quantitative Easing in the coming months. The split raised the prospect that the central bank might restart the QE programme. The last time there was a similar 6-3 split on the MPC was in June 2012, and the following month a majority of the MPC backed a £50bn increase in asset purchases. 

Quantitative Easing effectively floods the market with Sterling, and reduces its value as a result. In the past when QE has been announced, the Pound has dipped sharply and so should we see more stimulus then the Pound may well fall further. 

Along with Sir Mervyn, executive director for markets Paul Fisher and external MPC member David Miles voted for an increase in the central bank's bond purchases of £25bn to take the total to £400bn. The release of the dovish minutes caused the pound to continue its decline, falling 0.9pc to hit the lowest level in more than 15 months against the euro. At the time of writing Pound/Euro rates sit at 1.1425. 

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So will the Pound fall further? 

There is a very good chance of this in my opinion, given that more QE is now likely, our credit rate is under threat, and there is still the ever present risk of the UK slipping back in to recession. 

 Also of worry to those hoping the Pound will recover is comments made recently by the BoE governor. He said that “there are limits to what can be achieved via general monetary stimulus” as he urged the Government to “find ways of boosting overseas demand for our products” and push through “supply reforms” – often associated with tax cuts and deregulation. 

This means that they want the Pound to weaken further to try and boost exports to help the economy recover. 

Your options if you need to convert Sterling to another currency 

If you are looking for the best exchange rates, it’s likely you have been watching the markets in dismay as the rate has fallen all year. In January GBP/EUR rates were at 1.2350, and rates have fallen over 7% since then to the lows of 1.1420 we see today.

Given the huge volatility we're seeing at the moment, don't simply leave things to chance and hope things will move your way. You should take control of what you need to do, know your options and allow yourself to make informed choices on when to fix a rate.

So what to do if you need to convert funds? 

The first option is to simply fix the rate now. Even if you don’t need your funds for some time, you can lock in the rate today by lodging 10% of the total you want to convert. This protects you against further falls in the rate, removes your exposure to the market, and will allow you to budget effectively. 

Alternatively you could hold off and hope rates recover. This is a risk of course, as there is every chance rates could continue to drop away.

A third option is to hedge your bets. For example if you need to convert £100,000.00 to Euros, you could fix a rate today for £50,000.00. You can then take a gamble on the remaining funds. In this way you have some level of protection regardless what the rate does. If it gets better, then you can convert your remaining funds at a higher rate. If it continues to fall, then at least you converted some of your funds at a better rate. 

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Take the next step to getting the best exchange rates 

If you need to buy or sell foreign currency, send me an enquiry now. I can get in touch to discuss your requirements, run over the options you have, and provide all the information you need to make an informed decision on when to fix an exchange rate. When you do this, the rates we can provide are up to 5% better than the banks. 

So now that you’ve finished reading, take the next step to making the most of your currency, and send me a free enquiry now by clicking here 

Pound/Euro & Pound/Dollar forecast outlook

Wednesday 29th September 2012
Good morning everybody. Today I’m posting a quick mid-week update on what’s been happening with exchange rates, and what may happen in the coming days and weeks. The Pound has recovered a little against the Euro, but is not likely to continue gaining much. Against the US Dollar the Pound remains at a 5 month high. Let’s have a more detailed look at each currency pair in turn.

Pound/Euro

Sterling has risen a little against the Euro into the mid €1.24’s following uncertainty about Spain. The concerns encouraged investors to take profit on some of the single currency's recent strong gains, and this helped the GBP/EUR rate recover slightly. Concerns are growing about whether and when Spain will seek a bailout, while a German investor survey highlighted concerns about Europe's largest economy.

The results of a financial stress test on Spain's banks are due to be published on 28 September, and will provide a basis for calculations as to which banks should receive European Union funds and how much they should get. This may weaken the Euro slightly, however I think events in the UK over the coming days will take precedent which I’ll look at in a moment. All in all I think the Pound/Euro rate may fall further due to the weak UK economy.

Pound/Dollar

The Sterling/Dollar rate has not moved much this week, but has risen slightly and remains near a 5 month high. It’s due to weakness in the US Dollar after the announcement of open ended Quantitative Easing in the USA.

If we don’t get any negative UK data in the coming days, I think GBP/USD could rise a little further. If you need US Dollars, while it may rise further this is no guarantee. Given rates are at their best for many months, if I needed USD I would place a Stop Loss order a rate a little below the current level. In this way I can continue to take advantage of any gains, but if things go the wrong way and move against me, I have a worst case scenario.

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UK Data

Yesterday we saw that UK inflation dipped slightly in August despite a rise in oil and fuel costs. This kept alive prospects of the Bank of England injecting more cash into the economy later this year which might weaken the Pound.

Sterling has been quite well supported by better UK data in recent weeks, which has eased concerns about the growth outlook. The inflation data didn’t really have any effect on exchange rates, as it does not change the balance of expectations over whether the Bank of England will increase its asset-buying programme later this year.

Bank of England minutes – more QE on the cards?

I expect more QE in November, but of course today's BoE minutes may give us a cleared idea of what to expect. Today at 09:30am the minutes are published, and they will show what was discussed and differences of view during their last meeting on QE and interest rates.

Analysts suggested that the falling inflation rate eased concerns that the Bank's policy of pumping money into the economy to stimulate demand - known as quantitative easing (QE) - could lead to inflation picking up. The UK economy has contracted for the past three quarters and the Bank announced another £50bn of QE in July, taking the total amount of money it has injected into the economy under this programme to £375bn.

Some analysts suggested this total could rise again later this year, as the economy struggles to exit recession. If there is any hint of QE any time soon, the Pound may take a little dip against other currencies.

Are you looking for the best exchange rates?

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We can also give you a free consultation on what is happening with the markets, and run through the different options you have to protect you against unnecessary losses due to exchange rate fluctuations. Mention 'BLOG' when you get in touch.

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I can then get in touch to discuss your requirements, explain how we can help and the mechanics of how our service works. I look forward to hearing from you.