Pound/Euro has fallen 8 cents since last month

Monday 28th September 
The last week has been an interesting one for currencies, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate fluctuating between €1.39 and €1.35. Since last month, it's now fallen 8 cents. This means purchasing €350,000.00 today is costing you around £15,000.00 more than last month, which really illustrates how important it is to get your timing right, and have tools in place like 'Stop Loss' orders to protect against sharp drops in the market like we have seen recently.

Here's how the GBP/EUR rate has moved in the last 2 months:

What has been causing the volatility in currency prices? 

As I explained in my last post, the main reason for the fall in GBP/EUR rates last week was due to a strengthening of the Euro, which has now become more expensive to buy. The European Central Bank opted not to extend their stimulus programme, and have also said interest rates will not be cut. This has supported the Euro and is the main reason for rates dropping away. 

Also the global economic uncertainty has meant that the UK are no longer likely to tighten monetary policy, and this has halted the rise in the value of Sterling. I’d expect the USA to raise interest rates later this year, and the UK may follow them, but not until the latter part of 2016 in my opinion. (The rumour of an interest rate hike generally strengthens a currency due to the higher return on offer for investors).

What could happen to exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the main data releases I think will affect currency rates for the coming week. For those looking at GBP/EUR, there are lots of inflation figures from the UK and EU, and also UK GDP figures that could affect the rate. 

For GBP/USD, look for hints on interest rates from FED member speeches later today. 

If you have a currency transfer to make, would like a quote, or simply a chat about what is moving exchange rates, click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

Monday 28th September 2015 – Very quiet other that data from the USA – Inflation numbers, Home Sales and Speeches by FED members could all affect GBP/USD. So far rates have risen today, but the general trend in Pound/Dollar rates is likely to be down 

Tuesday 29th September 2015 – There is a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney, and he may give clues on UK interest rates that could affect the Pound. Also in the UK today we see Mortgage approval numbers and a measure of Consumer Confidence. Elsewhere, Germany has inflation figures, the USA also releases Consumer Confidence figures. 

Wednesday 30th September 2015 – We have the latest GDP figures today that could affect Sterling. European data includes Germany releases Retail Sales numbers and Unemployment figures, along with EU wide unemployment figures and inflation. The FED’s Janet Yellen gives another speech – watch for any hint on US monetary policy. 

Thursday 1st October 2015 – There is data on manufacturing today from Germany, Europe and the UK, in addition to an ECB monetary policy meeting, all of which could affect GBP/EUR rates. The USA has Manufacturing and Construction data due in the afternoon. 

Friday 2nd October 2015 – We end the week with Jobs day in the USA, with Non-Farm Payrolls one of the key releases that could affect the US Dollar this week. The EU releases inflation numbers. 

If you would like to know how any of the above data could affect exchange rates, or would like to get a quote for your currency exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker, then click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

I will get in touch with you personally, and often better rates available at banks or other currency brokers by as much as 3%, so it's certainly worth getting in touch to see what I can do for you.

Click here to get your quote and find out how much you could save. 

GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in 1 week, before recovering to €1.42

Tuesday 18th August 2015 
It’s been an interesting week in the currency markets since my last post a week ago. (Apologies for the lack of updates recently; my girlfriend managed to break her leg quite badly so I’ve had other priorities!)

In the last week we saw Sterling weaken significantly, pulling GBP/EUR rates down from €1.42 back into the €1.39’s. Today however we have seen a significant recovery, and during trading today we have seen the rate shoot back up over €1.42. After a look at the last 7 day GBP/EUR chart I’ll explain what has been causing the volatility. Sterling/Euro over the last 7 days: 

What caused the Pound/Euro rate to fall into the €1.39s? 

It was a combination of poor UK economic data, positive data from Euro, and a 3rd €86bn bailout finally agreed for Greece. 

Let’s start with the UK numbers. Sterling fell sharply last Wednesday as numbers showed that wage growth had slowed, reflecting a slowing of the UK’s economic recovery. In turn the numbers means it’s more and more unlikely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year. Investors duly sold the Pound, causing it to weaken significantly. GBP/EUR fell 4 cents in a 1 week period, which goes to show just how quickly exchange rates can change in the currency markets. 

It was a different story in Europe, with figures showing that the EU economy grew by 0.3%. Even Greece managed 0.8% growth, and it seems that the ECB Stimulus program seems to be working. The Euro gained strength as a result and became more expensive to purchase. 

Finally, Greece was back in the headlines but this time for the right reasons. The 3rd bailout of €86bn has finally been agreed after months of negotiations, which regular readers of my blog will be well aware of. Greece’s debt problems have been one of the main factors weakening the single currency recently, so with the issue finally sorted, the Euro gained against other currencies. All of the above caused the decline in GBP/EUR pushing rates below the key €1.40 level. 

GBP/EUR pushes back above €1.42 

Pound/Euro rates fought back today however. When I returned to work this morning the rate was sat around €1.4050. At the time of writing, we have seen the pair rise by more than 1% to rest just above the €1.42 mark. This morning the latest UK inflation numbers were released and were better than expected. While still very low at 0.1% and well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%, it does mean that we could now see a UK interest rate hike sooner than thought. 

One of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee members Ms Forbes has said that a rate hike took between one and two years to take full effect, and as a result, rates would need to rise "well before" inflation hit the Bank's 2% target. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

In addition to explaining what moves exchange rates, I can also provide you a quote for your exchange. I am the foreign exchange manager for one of the UK’s largest currency brokerages, and the rates we can achieve are some of the best available and as much as 5% better than your bank can offer. 

I can offer a quote in almost every currency pair including GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and many more. If you would like a quote, or to discuss which way the exchanges rates may move, then contact me today by clicking below. It costs nothing to make an enquiry, and I can usually save my clients around 2 to 3% on their exchange. This may not sound much, but when converting large sums the savings are thousands of pounds. 

Click here to send me an enquiry and get a quote today.

 

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 10th August 2015 
Good morning. As I outlined in Friday’s post, Sterling has fallen against other currencies in recent days. Today I’ll list out the main economic data releases that are likely to cause volatility in exchange rates. After last week’s interest rate speculation for the UK and USA, at the time of writing GBP/EUR exchange rates are a little above €1.41, and GBP/USD rates are in the mid $1.54’s. You can view live rates updated every few seconds including interactive charts by clicking here. 

Remember that if you’re looking for the best deal on currency, in addition to my market updates here on the blog, I can also provide you a quote for your exchange that is likely to be significantly better than your bank or existing broker may offer. Click here to get your quotation today. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

As usual for a Monday, I have listed below this week’s main fundamental data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to get a quote or simply discuss what could affect the exchange rates you’re looking at in the coming weeks, contact me today by clicking here. 

This week's economic data releases

• Monday 10th August 2015 – Today's is relatively quiet on the data front. The only UK release of note is Retail Sales data from the British Retail Consortium released at midnight. Retail Sales are a good barometer of overall economic activity so can affect the Pound. Elsewhere, one of the US Federal Reserve’s members gives a speech at lunchtime. Any further indications of an interest rate hike could cause GBP/USD rates to fall further. 

•  Tuesday 11th August 2015 – Nothing of note from the UK, but GBP/EUR could be affected by an EU wide economic sentiment survey. Germany also releases its economic sentiment measures along with Wholesale prices. Because Germany is the EU’s largest economy, its figures can affect the value of the Euro. 

•  Wednesday 12th August 2015 – Today is the most important one for the Pound, as we have several releases detailing unemployment figures at 09:30am. Unemployment is expected at 5.6%, so any deviation from this figure will affect Sterling exchange rates. Later in the day we have House price data from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. Elsewhere Europe has Industrial production figures. The US delivers its monthly budget statement, so all in all lots today that could affect the currency markets. 

•   Thursday 13th August 2015 – Nothing from the UK today, but GBP/EUR could still be affected by German Inflation data, and a European Central Bank Policy meeting. The USA and New Zealand both release their latest Retail Sales figures. 

•  Friday 14th August 2015 – Another busy day from Europe, with Gross Domestic Product figures from Germany, Italy and the EU as a whole. There are also inflation numbers released from Europe today, so a busy morning for the single currency. We end the week with US Industrial Production figures. 

Looking for the best deal of foreign exchange? 

If you want to get the best possible exchange rates, then contact me for a quote. I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+. You can send me a free enquiry using the link below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and discuss the different options you can consider to help you get the best rate of exchange possible. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today.

 

Sterling falls after Super Thursday

Friday 7th August 2015
Super Thursday was anything but for the Pound, as a dovish tone from the Bank of England caused a large sell off for Sterling, pulling GBP/EUR exchange rates lower. The decline has continued this afternoon so in just 48 hours exchange rates have dropped from from €1.44 to nearly €1.41: 

Super Thursday pushes GBP/EUR lower 

On Thursday, the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates at their current historic low of 0.5%. What surprised many was that only 1 of the 9 members voted for a rate hike. The markets had been expecting at least 2 or more to vote for a hike. 

This means that earlier in the week expectation was for interest rates to go up at the end of the year. Deputy governor Ben Broadbent said the Committee had no specific time in mind for a rise and comments by governor Mark Carney had been misinterpreted. 

Following yesterday’s news it now looks like mid 2016 is more likely. Investors sold the Pound on the back of the news, pulling the Pound lower against other currencies. I said that exchange rates were likely to change yesterday and that has proved to be the case. 

Pound/Dollar rates fall on US Jobs data 

GBP/USD fell yesterday after the Bank of England’s releases, and today the USA posted much better than expected jobs data, which has strengthened the US Dollar further and pulled GBP/USD rates even lower: 

Looking for the best deal of foreign exchange? 

If you want to get the best possible exchange rates, then contact me for a quote. I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+. You can send me a free enquiry using the link below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and discuss the different options you can consider to help you get the best rate of exchange possible. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today. 

 

Exchange Rates volatile due to interest rate speculation

Wednesday 5th August 2015
There was some movement on both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates overnight, and it’s interest rate speculation again that’s driving exchange rates. After a quick look at the charts I’ll explain what’s going on. As you can see below Sterling/Euro rates have climbed to €1.4350 and Sterling/Dollar rates dropped a cent overnight: 

Sterling/Euro

Sterling/Dollar

GBP/USD - US Interest rates affect exchange rates 

Last night, one of the US Federal Reserve members, Dennis Lockhart, who is one of the people who decides on interest rates, said that it would take "significant deterioration" in the U.S. economy for him to not support a rate hike in September. This means that chances are increased that the USA will be the first major western economy to start pushing rates back up. The hint of higher interest rates tends to strengthen a currency due to the higher return on offer for investors. 

On the comments, the USD gained strength and pulled GBP/USD Rates down. As investors moved funds from the Euro into the Dollar, the single currency weakened accordingly, and as you can see from the graphs above, the GBP/EUR rate moved inversely to cable, rising by over 1% to €1.4350. 

On Friday, we see some very important jobs data from the USA at 13:30pm, and if these numbers beat forecasts, expect the decline in GBP/USD rates to continue. I am still of the view that GBP/USD rates won’t stay above $1.50 for very much longer. 

GBP/EUR – Thursday very important for exchange rates 

With many analysts now expecting the US to raise interest rates next month, many are also starting to look at whether the UK will do the same. Tomorrow (Thursday) is a very important one for the Pound. Here is the data we’re going to see from Britain: 

‘Super’ Thursday’s eco-stats include: Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, a GDP growth estimate, the BoE decision on interest rates, the BoE Inflation report, a Statement from the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, and a Speech by the BoE governor Mark Carney. 

Phew. There’s a huge amount of data to chew on tomorrow, and taken as a whole will paint a very clear picture on what direction the UK economy is taking. I think that at least 2 of the 9 member MPC committee will vote for an interest rate hike, and if this happens and the other data is good, expect Sterling to gain in strength. We could well see a decent rise for Sterling exchange rates if the UK economic picture is a robust one. 

Do you need to exchange currency? 

I don't just provide regular updates on exchange rates;I help clients source some of the best currency deals available. I am the foreign exchange manager for one of the UK’s leading currency brokerages. In July alone we helped clients exchange over £35,000,000.00 and due to these large volumes we trade, our exchange rates are some of the best you can find anywhere. 

If you need to convert over £5000.00 and have your currency transferred to a bank account, then get in touch with me by clicking here. I can provide you a quote and you can see how much you can save compared to your bank or existing broker. We’re fully authorised by the FCA in the UK so you can trade with us knowing your funds are safe.

I look forward to hearing from you and providing you a quotation for your exchange. 

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 3rd August 2015 
Good morning and welcome to a new week of updates about exchange rates. In today’s post, I’m going to take a look at the economic data releases for the week ahead that could affect exchange rates. Currently GBP/EUR sits a little above €1.42, and GBP/USD sits just below $1.56. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

There are lots of things that can change the value of a currency. Regular readers will know that in recent times it’s been events in Greece, and political situations like the Scottish referendum and UK election. Usually however, it’s fundamental data such as unemployment figures and interest rates. 

We already know well in advance what is going to be released using calenders such as this one, and analysts give their forecasts as to what they think the results will be. These forecasts are already priced into the value of a currency, so what’s important is not necessarily whether the figure is good or bad for an economy, but whether the figures are better or worse than expected. For example UK unemployment could fall, but that could still weaken the Pound if it didn't fall as much as had been expected!

Below I have listed this week’s main fundamental data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to get a quote or simply discuss what could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks, contact me today by clicking here. 

This week’s data releases 

Monday 3rd August 2015 – This morning we have already seen Inflation numbers from Europe and Germany which were better than expected, which strengthened the Euro and pulled GBP rates down slightly. This afternoon those with an eye on GBP/USD rates should watch for the US Manufacturing PMI Numbers. They are expected to show a reading of 53.5 so a figure higher than this could cause Sterling/Dollar to drop. 

Tuesday 4th August 2015 – The main UK release today is PMI Construction which shows business conditions in the UK construction sector and can affect the value of Sterling. Elsewhere the main news is from down under. Australia has Trade Balance figures and an interest rate decision. They’ve already cut rates twice this year to 2% so I don’t expect any further cut, but if they do expect GBP/AUD to rise. In New Zealand we have unemployment data figures that could affect GBP/NZD rates. 

Wednesday 5th August 2015 – GBP/EUR today could be affect by data from Europe – Markit Services and Retail Sales. The latter is expected to show a rise of 1.9%. If it’s lower than this, Pound/Euro could rise and vice versa. Over in the United States we have Inflation, Manufacturing and Services data, in addition to Employment numbers and the latest Trade balance figures. Lots to chew on for investors, which could affect GBP/USD rates. 

Thursday 6th August 2015 – Today is the most important one for Sterling, as we have a lot of data for Britain – Industrial Production, an NIESR GDP Estimate, and the all-important Bank of England meeting. It’s highly unlikely there will be a change to interest rates, but the minutes will make an interesting read, and also the Speech by Mark Carney, BoE governor at 12:45pm is also very important. If the minutes or the speech contain any comments hinting at an interest rate rise later in the year, expect the Pound to rise against other currencies. 

Friday 7th August 2015 – The UK is a little quieter today, but there are Trade balance figures released at 09:30am. Germany also has Trade balance figures, so GBP/EUR could be affected today. Over in the USA we have Jobs data including the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers. This usually creates quite a bit of volatility for GBP/USD rates as the figure often differs significantly from estimates. GBP/CAD could also have a choppy day today due to Canadian Unemployment figures and inflation numbers.  

Looking for the best deal of foreign exchange?

If you want to get the best possible exchange rates, then contact me for a quote. I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+. You can send me a free enquiry using the link below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and discuss the different options you can consider to help you get the best rate of exchange possible. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today.  

GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in a week. GBP/USD also set to drop

Tuesday 28th July 2015
Sterling has fallen sharply against the Euro of late, and in the last week had slipped from €1.44 down to €1.40. As you can see from the chart below, the rate has recovered slightly this morning, getting back above €1.41: 

The main reason for the gradual slide in Sterling is partly due to renewed optimism surround Greece, but also the global economic picture. If you look at the global economy, you will see that the Chinese market is in turmoil, and there has also been a sharp drop in Commodity prices. This is giving investors serious doubts over the strength of economic growth worldwide, and in turn this casts some doubt over whether the Bank of England will actually raise interest rates at the turn of the year. 

The global picture means that the Bank of England may well have to tighten their monetary policy, and this has pulled Sterling lower against other currencies. 

This morning however, strong UK Growth figures have shown that the economy has grown by 0.7% in the last few months, which is an improvement over recent measures. This positive news has pushed the Sterling/Euro rate up by 1% comfortably over the €1.41 mark. 

Sterling/Dollar 

It is interest rates driving this currency pair too at the moment. Today, the US Federal Reserve starts a 2 day meeting, with an announcement due tomorrow. If they give further signals that interest rates are going to rise within the next few months, then expect the US Dollar to gain strength and pull rates lower.

 
Currently GBP/USD is trading at around $1.56. I don’t expect the level to remain at these levels. As the US are widely expected to be the first western economy to start pushing up rates, this could mean the USD strengthens. I still expect rates to drop below the key $1.50 mark by the end of the year. 

Do you have a currency transaction to perform? 

You can get in touch with me using the link below to obtain a quotation on your exchange. I usually have no problem beating rates from bank and other brokers, and even a small improvement in the rate can save you a significant amount of money. 

Click here to get your quote today

Sterling gains on BoE MPC minutes

Wednesday 22nd July 2015 
Yesterday was not a good one for Sterling/Euro rates, with levels sliding all day from €1.44 to €1.42. The reason for the drop was renewed confidence about Greece, and in particular credit rating agencies increasing Greece’s rating as they felt there is now much less chance of them leaving the Eurozone. 

This morning, Sterling has fought back slightly after the release of the Bank of England (BoE) minutes from this morning’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The full minutes can be read here.  

The key phrase I noticed was “the decision between holding Bank Rate at its current level versus a small increase was becoming more finely balanced”. This means that despite all 9 members voting to keep the interest rate at the record low of 0.5%, it shows that they are going to start leaning towards finally raising rates towards the end of this year. The next meeting is in 6 weeks’ time, and we may start to see some of the members voting for a hike in rates. 

This has given Sterling a boost, as the rumour of an interest rate rise usually does. The same effect has been seen on the US Dollar this week. 

View live currency graphs here

Today’s Data 

All eyes were on the Bank of England and the inflation report this morning, and at 10am there is a parliamentary inflation report. For the remainder of today, the only data of note is an Interest Rate decision and policy statement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Their inflation is very low at the moment, and the NZD is very weak due to the low commodity prices (See my post about commodity currencies to learn more). I think there is a chance they will cut interest rates to try and boost the economy. If they do, then expect GBP/NZD rates to go higher. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

If you want to get the best possible exchange rates, then contact me for a quote. I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+. You can send me a free enquiry using the link below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and discuss the different options you can consider to help you get the best rate of exchange possible. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today.

 

How could Euro react to the Greek referendum?

Friday 3rd July 2015
Regular readers of my blog will be well aware that most moves in Sterling/Euro of late have been due to the ongoing problems in Greece. The failure to meet their debt payments and the ongoing negotiations have weakened the Euro significantly in the last few months, resulting in a cheap single currency. In fact the current GBP/EUR is very close to the best it’s been in 8 years. Below is a chart showing the exchange rate over the last 3 months. As you can see, it's risen to €1.40 several times before dropping back away again:

 

What’s happening this weekend? 

The Greek people are voting on a referendum called by the Greek government, on whether they support the bailout offer, in terms of further international loans. This follows months of tough talks with creditors. 

Currently all support to Greece has been stopped, and the banks are likely to run out of cash on Monday. You can read more about this here on the BBC website.  EU leaders have warned that a "No" vote could see Greece leave the Eurozone. 

What if Greece votes ‘No’? 

This would mean them rejecting the bailout plans, and the Euro could well weaken pushing Pound/Euro rates higher. Some say this would mean Greece leaving the Euro. Actually, there is currently no mechanism for them to do so, as it simply wasn’t envisaged when the Euro was created! Even if they decided to leave the Euro tomorrow, it would take months for the EU to work out how to do this in practice. A no vote though would mean back to square one, and negotiations would start again. I do think however that a No vote will keep Pound/Euro firmly above 1.40 and we could possibly see rates climb even higher. 

What if Greece votes ‘Yes’? 

This would be a blow to the Greek government. It would in no way resolve the problems, as all it would mean is that negotiations would start again. However, I think a Yes vote would strengthen the Euro, and pull GBP/EUR rates back below the 1.40 mark again. 

What does all this mean for Pound/Euro rates? 

This afternoon GBP/EUR has fallen as the latest polls suggest the Yes vote has a slight lead. This indicates that rates could tumble if the vote goes this way on Sunday. Personally, whichever way the vote goes on Sunday, I still firmly believe a deal will be done between Greece and its creditors, and when it does I would expect Sterling/Euro to drop sharply. 

It’s in everyone’s interest to do a deal especially Greece’s. If I needed Euros in 2015, I would give serious consideration to fixing a rate while it’s close to the best in 8 years. 

Do you need to get the best exchange rates? 

Regardless which currency you need to buy or sell, why not get in touch with me for a quotation, and to discuss the different tools I provide to protect you against adverse exchange rate movements. The rates I source are up to 5% better than banks and other brokers may offer, and it costs nothing to contact me for a free consultation and quote. 

I can also discuss your particular requirements, explain what may happen to exchange rates in the coming months, and explain the options you can consider so you can make an informed choice on how to proceed. 

Have a great weekend.

Click here to send me a free enquiry today.

How solution to Greek crisis could affect exchange rates

Monday 22nd June 2015 
This week, and today in particular, is quite a critical one for Greece, and the GBP/EUR exchange rate along with it. Many headlines are suggesting that this is the ‘Last Chance’ for Greece. There have been many of these before, and I don’t think today will provide a complete solution. 

What exactly is happening in Greece? 

They need to make a debt payment of €1.6 billion by next Tuesday, 30th June. However to be able to actually meet that payment, they need to get a further €7 billion in aid, and that’s what they’re trying to agree today, however to get the funds, the Greeks need to reform pensions and cut spending, which is difficult for their Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to agree to, given he was elected on the premise of ending austerity. 

Early this morning, he met the leaders of the IMF, ECB and EU commission to outline his proposals. Just before lunch, the EU’s finance ministers started a meeting to see if they can agree on a deal to give Greece the bailout funds they need. Later this evening at 6pm all the EU leaders meet for an emergency summit to debate the crisis. 

How could Greece affect the GBP/EUR exchange rate? 

The uncertainty over Greece’s ability to obtain bailout funds has meant there is a risk of them leaving the Euro. This fear has been keeping the Euro weak, and that’s why the GBP/EUR exchange rate has been hovering around the €1.40 level of late. 

If they reach an agreement later today, or later this week, then I would expect the Euro to strengthen and cause the GBP/EUR rate to fall. However we’ve seen quite a few of these ‘last chances’ for Greece, and it could be that this weeks meetings simply kick the can down the road a little further, without actually sorting out the fundamental issues. If so, expect rates to remain supported. With worried Greeks currently withdrawing their savings from the banks in huge amounts, it's clear that a solution needs to be founds quickly. 

Personally I think they will all agree a way forwards sooner or later, which could mean the current GBP/EUR levels may not last for long. 

Are you looking to convert £5000+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, and keen on getting the best exchange rates? 

If you need to convert currency, and would like to get a quote to see how much I could save you on your exchange, then it is certainly worth sending me a free enquiry to obtain a quotation and more information on the services I offer. The rates I can achieve are significantly better than banks and other financial institutions offer, by as much as 5% in some cases. I also offer various types of contracts that can protect you against adverse exchange rate movements that banks don’t usually offer to private clients. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

GBP/EUR breaks €1.40 on strong UK Retail Sales

Sterling/Euro rates have today pushed through the €1.40 barrier again today, following stronger than expected UK Retail Sales data. This is the 3rd time in the last few months the pair has broken through the key 1.40 level: 

The much better than expected Retail Sales reflect a growing confidence in the UK economy, and as such Sterling has risen against other currencies. Also helping the Pound this week were the minutes to the recent Bank of England decision to hold interest rates. While all 9 members voted to keep rates on hold, it seems for 2 of them it was a finely balanced decision. This means that despite inflation turning negative this week, a 2016 interest rate hike could be on the cards, helping boost the Pound. 

Will Pound/Euro rates remain above €1.40? 

It’s impossible to predict of course, but looking at past performance it’s clear this level has been reached several times in the last few months before dropping back away. The only thing keeping the rate high is uncertainty over Greece’s next debt repayment. If they make progress in this respect then expect the rate to drop back away. If it looks like they will have difficulty meeting their commitments, the rate may be sustained above €1.40. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, then get in touch for a quote and free consultation on the rates and service I can offer you. With rates up to 5% better than banks can offer, coupled with a range of contract types to protect you against adverse exchange rate movements, I could save you thousands on your currency transfer. I can help with bank to bank transfers for amounts £5k + and can source over 35 major international currency pairs including GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, NZD, CHF, CAD, HKD, SEK,NOK, DKK, HUF, TRY, PLN, CZK, SGD, THB, CNH, ZAR. 

Click here to send a free enquiry today

Pound/Euro exchange rates May/June 2015

Tuesday 19th May 2015
Sterling/Euro rates continue to remain pretty volatile, and in the last 24 hours we have seen the pair rise from €1.3730 to nearly €1.40, which was due to weakness in the Euro. The gains didn’t last long however, and UK inflation figures this morning have weakened the Pound and knocked the rate down a cent, to around €1.3850 as the chart below shows. 

In today’s report I’ll explain what has caused the movements for Pound/Euro rates, and look at where the GBP/EUR exchange rate may move in May & June 2015. 

Euro weakness causes GBP/EUR to rise to nearly €1.40 

Greece has another large debt repayment to make on the 5th of June. Whether they will make it or not is having a big impact on the value of the Euro. The IMF think they don’t have much chance of meeting the payment, and their acknowledgement of this yesterday caused the Euro to weaken, pushing GBP/EUR rates up from 1.3750 to 1.3850. 

The weakness in the Euro continued this morning when European Central Bank officials said the bank could take further action, and pump even more money into the economy than they are doing already, in order to quash euro zone bond yields and boost inflation. If they increase their QE program and the amount of Euros their pumping in, then it will weaken the Euro. More of anything means it’s worth less, and that was the reason for this morning’s GBP/EUR push up to almost €1.40. 

UK inflation figures pull rates back down 

The rates only got to this level for 20 minutes or so, and then the UK released its latest inflation numbers. This showed that inflation turned negative for the first time in over 50 years. So why did this cause the Pound to drop? It’s because of interest rates. With inflation negative, there is no chance of a rate hike anytime soon. Because rates are going to stay low for a long time to come, there is little incentive for investors to buy the Pound, so that’s why the rate dropped back away. 

Where next for Sterling/Euro rates 

You can see from the chart that there is a steady line of support and resistance at around the €1.3850 market where it keeps settling back down. I think that whether the GBP/EUR rate goes up or down depends on what Greece is expected to do. Quite simply, if they don’t make their next payment or it looks like they won’t, the Euro could weaken further and push rates back towards €1.40. This is a key technical level so unless anything else unexpected happens I don’t think it will break through this. 

Alternatively the Greeks could just be delaying in order to re-negotiate the deal they are getting. If payments are made or an agreement is put in place, then the Euro could gain strength, pulling rates back down again as the single currency becomes more expensive to buy. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

Rates are very volatile at the moment, moving very quickly. In order to get the best possible rates you need to have a good currency broker who can monitor the market for you, explain the options you can consider on when to fix a rate, and get you a much better rate than banks will offer. The worst thing you can do is just watch the rate and hope itwill move your way, or use the bank to convert your funds. 

Why not give me a try? The rates and service I provide are exceptional, and with over 10 years’ experience helping personal and business customers with their currency requirements, it may be prudent to see if I can do the same for you. Send me a free no obligation enquiry today by clicking below. 

Click here to send me an enquiry 

Pound soars back to nearly €1.40 after Conservative Majority

As I said in my last post just over a week ago, the blog was going to be quiet while I took a short holiday. Much has happened since I’ve been away! As most readers will already know, the Pound has surged higher against the Euro as Sterling posted its largest gains against the Euro in years. As exit polls showed that the Conservatives would take an overall majority, GBP/EUR rose 4 cents, and touched the €1.40 level several times as the chart below shows: 

Why did the Pound gain so much on a conservative win? 

The Pound had fallen sharply before the election, due to political uncertainty for investors who had expected a hung parliament. Most polls had again and again shown the two main parties neck and neck, with neither expected to secure a parliamentary majority. The overall majority for the conservatives while not popular with everyone, is certainly very good news for the UK economy. As such, investors rallied to buy the Pound, helping to push it up against other currencies. 

Will the Pound/Euro rate get back to €1.40? 

I personally don’t think so. You can see the resistance GBP/EUR has at €1.40 in the above chart, and the currency pair seems unable to break through this. Indeed this week we’ve seen the rate drop back to the €1.38 level. I think the Pound/Euro rate could now fall again, and I’ll explain the reasons why… 

• The Conservatives now have a majority, they can implement much tighter monetary policy than they have done under the Con/Lib Dem coalition. This means that the Bank of England may now keep monetary policy easy and keep interest rates low, which would weaken the Pound, which could take some of the wind out of sterling's sails. 
• Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on membership of the European Union within two years, and the uncertainty this will generate will also keep investors wary and limit any further gains.
• The Spotlight is now back on the EU and Greece, and actually recent figures suggest the European Central Banks stimulus program is having the desired effect, and the economy in Europe seems to be recovering. 
• Greece (which incidentally is where I have just been on holiday!) seems to be playing ball and, for the moment, is meeting its debt repayments. The Euro is weak at the moment due to Greece, and if this gets resolved, it could regain strength and become more expensive to buy. 

What should you do if you need to buy Euros this year?

I can’t predict what the rate will do, nobody can. What you can do however is speak to an expert currency broker like me to ensure you have an understanding of the options available. For example if you are worried about the rate falling, you can lock in the rate now for up to 2 years with a Forward contract. If you want to gamble on rates going higher, then you can use a ‘Stop Loss’ order to fix a rate should we see it plummet below a particular level, so you’re not exposed. Or, you could hedge your bets and fix a rate on half your requirement now, and see what happens later in the year with the remaining funds you need. 

Do you need to achieve the best possible exchange rates? 

The above is just an example of how I can help you if you’re looking to buy or sell currency. I can source you rates of exchange that are very close to the mid-market level you see published online and if you are converting a large sum, the savings could be thousands of Pounds. If you would like a quote on the exchange rate I can provide, or would like to discuss your options in more detail regarding when to fix a rate, then click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Click here to send me an enquiry

Pound/Euro breaks €1.40 on BoE minutes and Greek uncertainty

Wednesday 22nd April 2015
As you can see from the chart below, today we have seen the GBP/EUR rate climb above the €1.40 mark, after the Bank of England released its latest minutes confirming interest rates will remain on hold at 0.5%. This is the best it's been in over a month, and only a few cents away from an 8 year high.

Bank of England minutes 

Today the Bank of England (BoE) confirmed they would be keeping interest rates at the record low again. This wasn’t a surprise, but the minutes to the meeting were quite hawkish, and it was these comments that have caused the Pound to rise. 2 of the members said their decision was finely balanced, and after some recent uncertainty which way rates will go in the coming months, it is now quite certain that the next move will be up. 

This speculation of higher interest rates, probably in early 2016, boosted the Pound due to the higher return that may be on offer for investors. Consequently we have seen Sterling/Euro break the 1.40 level, and not far at all from the best we’ve seen in 8 years. (Those needing to buy Euros should consider taking advantage of these levels that may not last for long.)

The strengthening Pound also pushed higher against the US Dollar, breaking back above the $1.50 level. 

Greek worries keeping Euro week 

With an election only a few weeks away, it’s surprising the Pound is holding on against the Euro. Most expected it to drop away, however the Euro is very week indeed due to uncertainty over Greece. A Greek exit from the euro could still happen as they on course to run out of money and be unable to make their loan payments net month. There is still faith that European policymakers will avert that scenario, but while no bailout deal is in place, expect the Euro to remain cheap to purchase. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

If you need to convert £5k+ from one currency to another, then it would be prudent to get in touch with me for a quotation. I can source exceptional rates of exchange for any major currency conversion on a bank to bank basis. If you would like a quote or to fund out more about the service I offer, click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry. I regret I cannot help with cash or holiday funds, and can only assist those looking to have currency wired to a bank account. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

Pound/Dollar rates at 5 year low

Monday 13th April 2015

Pound/Dollar rates hit 5 year low

The US Dollar has been gaining more and more strength recently, and has therefore become more expensive to purchase. First thing this morning the GBP/USD rate was as low as 1.4569 which is the lowest in 5 years. It’s climbed a little during trading to 1.4645. Still a far cry from the highs of $1.72 we saw last summer! 

The reason is the US economy is performing very well, and it’s likely they will be the first major western economy to raise interest rates. Also, global uncertainty is driving investment into the ‘safe haven’ US Dollar, which also strengthens it. This is great news for anyone looking to convert Dollars to Pounds. Those needing Dollars however should note that many forecasts think the rate will continue to slide this year. 

 

 

Sterling/Euro remains supported at €1.38

The strength of the Dollar is also causing weakness in the Euro. Issues over Greece means investors are moving from Euro to Dollar, which is weakening the single currency and keeping GBP/EUR rates supported above the €1.38 level. 

I’m actually surprised the rate is holding at these levels, and I’m still of the view that as the election draws closer, Sterling will start to lose value against other currencies. Only on Friday figures showed weaker-than-expected industrial data, and the rising risk of prolonged political uncertainty after a tight British election next month is already dragging the Pound down against other currencies. Remember, the current high level is Euro weakness, not any fundamental strength in the Pound! 

If you are looking for the best exchange rates and would like a quote on your exchange, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the scheduled releases for the coming week that I think may affect exchange rates. Remember that other things such as election uncertainty could also change rates at any time without warning. To discuss your currency requirement in more detail, or have a chat about which direction the exchange rate may go, click here to send a free enquiry today. 

Tuesday 14th April 2015 – Quite an important day for the UK as we have the latest inflation numbers. Recent figures show the UK headed towards deflation, which could in turn mean interest rates going down. If that’s the case, the Pound could weaken. In Europe the only data of note is Industrial Production at 10am. Later in the afternoon in the USA we see the latest Retail Sales numbers. These are a good overall indicator of economic activity and so GBP/USD rates could be affected. 

Wednesday 15th April 2015 – Nothing from the UK today, but plenty from the EU that could move GBP/EUR rates. Germany releases a host if inflation numbers at 7am, and at 12:45pm we have the latest decision from Europe in interest rates. They are unlikely to change the rate, but at 13:30pm they give a press conference, and comments made often cause volatility for the Pound/Euro rate. Elsewhere, Canada also announces interest rates, and the USA has Industrial production figures. 

Thursday 16th April 2015 – Another quiet day for the UK. The only data of note today is in Australia where we see the latest employment figures, and the USA which also releases jobs data. Staying in the USA, we also have a speech by a FED member which could affect the Dollar. 

Friday 17th April 2015 – After a quiet few days, this could be an important one for Sterling. At 09:30am we have the latest employment numbers from the UK. This can often affect the Pound so expect a volatile morning for GBP exchange rates. Europe, Canada and the USA all release inflation numbers today too, so GBP/CAD, GBP/EUR and GBP/USD could all change today. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

Click here to send a free enquiry today.

Pound/Euro breaks through €1.39 - will it last?

Friday 6th March 2015
In the last few days the GBP/EUR exchange rate has climbed further, today briefly going through the €1.39 level before dropping back away. As we’ll see in a moment there are 2 reasons for the gains; weakness in the Euro caused by the European Central Bank (ECB) Quantitative Easing programme, and better than expected US Jobs data driving investment from the Euro, and into the US Dollar. Here’s how the GBP/EUR rate has moved this week: 

ECB Quantitative Easing 

This week the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed it will start its €1.1 trillion Quantitative Easing programme, following the UK and USA that did the same a number of years ago. The aim is to spur an economic recovery by printing money and buying government backed assets. They have done this despite raising their growth forecasts. They stated yesterday that they would continue QE even if the economy showed signs of recovery. 

This weakened the Euro further, pushing the GBP/EUR rate above €1.38 in trading on Thursday. Effectively the ECB’s president Mario Draghi has got what he wanted – a much weaker Euro which makes EU goods and services cheaper. The Euro is now at a near 8 year low against the Pound, and a 12 year low against the US Dollar. 

However if QE has the desired effect, which it has seemed to do in Britain and America, it could start lending some support back to the single currency. 

US jobs data causes GBP/USD to drop, and GBP/EUR to rise 

Figures today showed that the US economy added 295,000 jobs in February, which is much higher than had been expected. It’s also the 12th month in a row the economy added more than 200,000 jobs, the longest such run since 1994. 

The stronger-than-expected jobs figure strengthened the US Dollar and caused GBP/EUR rates to drop by almost 2 cents:

 

The flow of investment into the Dollar also hurt the Euro, which weakened further and briefly pushed GBP/EUR rates above €1.39. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

Sterling rises on Interest Rate comments

Monday 8th December 
The Pound has had a good start to the week, rising by nearly a cent against the Euro to 1.2720 and also up against the US Dollar, from 1.5550 this morning to 1.5630 this afternoon: 

What has cause the Pound to gain against EUR & USD? 

There hasn’t been any significant data today, so I’ve put the rise down to comments from the Bank of England, that say the UK economy can cope with higher interest rates. They’ve stated that the majority of people with mortgages could cope with a rise in interest rates, if levels rose to 2.5% from their current 0.5% historic low. 

The comments mean there is more chance of a rate hike in the first half of 2015 and the Pound strengthened accordingly. (A currency strengthens on the rumour of higher interest rates, as it attracts investment into the Pound due the potential higher return on offer). 

It’s worth noting however that the Pound/Euro cross seems to be range-bound between 1.25 and 1.28 at the moment, so I don’t think we’ll see rates continue to climb. If you need to buy or sell Euros, get in touch for a free quote and a brief chat on the options you can consider to help you get the best rate.  

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

What else could affect exchange rates this week? 

Tuesday 9th December – The most important releases today are from the UK, including Industrial and Manufacturing production, along with a NIESR GDP estimate, forecast at 1.8%, 3.2% and 0.7% respectively. If the actual numbers are higher or lower, the Pound could rise or fall accordingly. 

Wednedsay 10th December – Another important day for Sterling as we have the latest trade balance figures. These show the difference between what we import and export so can often affect exchange rates. Elsewhere GBP/NZD could change as we have an interest rate decision from New Zealand and a press conference afterwards. 

Thursday 11th December – Nothing of note from the UK today, but GBP/EUR could be affected by inflation numbers from Europe, and a monthly report from the ECB. We also have Australian Employment figures that could alter GBP/AUD rates, and in the USA we have raft of jobless numbers and the latest retail sales. 

Friday 12th December – Nothing from the UK today, and from the EU we have Employment numbers and Industrial production figures. We end the week with US Inflation figures, and a consumer sentiment survey. 

Do you have an upcoming currency transaction?

If you need to convert currency then get in touch to find out more about the exchange rates I can offer. I regret we do not deal with cash or holiday money, only bank to bank transfers for amounts £5k+. You may have bought or sold a property abroad, or perhaps your bus

iness buys and sells goods from the Eurozone. Whatever your currency needs, you could save thousands by achieving a better exchange rate. 

Click here to find out more about the rates and currency services I can offer you.