Thursday 9th January 2014 Good afternoon. A quick update on exchange rates, as we have seen Pound/Euro surge to new highs, and currently the rate is €1.2150. The reason for the gains were as I outlined in my post yesterday. As I predicted, there were no surprises from the central bank decisions, however in the ECB Press conference, I mentioned that if the President Mario Draghi hinted at lower interest rates in the future for the EU, it would weaken the Euro and push rates up. This is exactly what has happened. He said rates would "remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The markets reacted immediately, and as you can see from the chart below, the GBP/EUR rate shot up from 1.2085 to 1.2150. This is now a very attractive time to need to fix a rate buying Euros. You can read more about what happened in the ECB press conference here on the BBC website. If you would like to discuss how I can help you achieve excellent commercial exchange rates, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
Wednesday 8th January 2014 We have seen the Pound gain in strength today, and Sterling/Euro exchange rates have risen to €1.21. In today’s post I’m going to give my view on why I think this has happened, and also have a look at what could happen tomorrow (Thursday) which I think is going to be key for what happens to exchange rates in the short term. It’s a very important day for currencies as we have some key data from 3 of the world’s major central banks in the next 24 hours. But first, let’s look at today’s gains….Pound/Euro rates rise to €1.21 As you can see from the chart, Pound/Euro rates have gained nicely today, hitting €1.21 before levelling off. So what has caused the jump in rates? One factor could be the unemployment numbers from the Eurozone that were released earlier. It shows unemployment is now at 12.1%, which is much higher than we have in the UK. As such this may have weakened the Euro causing rates to rise. But to be honest, the number was pretty much as expected, and EU Retail Sales were actually better than forecast, so I don’t think that’s the reason for the movement today. I think the reason for the rise is more market expectation on what will happen in the next 24 hours, when we have some key releases from 3 of the worlds major Central Banks – the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. So, let’s have detailed look at what effect any action by these central banks could have on exchange rates. *** Key Central Bank decisions in the next 24 hours *** European Central Bank (ECB) 
Tomorrow at 12:45pm the ECB will announce their latest decision on interest rates. I think it is very unlikely that they will change the rate, but at 13:30pm the ECB President Mario Draghi will give a press conference. This is very important, as if he hints that rates may be cut in the coming months, then the Euro is likely to weaken. I think there is a good chance rates may go down in the EU, as inflation is falling in the EU. I also think that could be the reason that the Pound/Euro rate has gone up today, as markets start to factor in the likelihood of this happening. So listen carefully tomorrow lunchtime to his comments, and see the effect it has on rates. If he doesn’t hint at rate cuts, then expect GBP/EUR rates to drop back away. Bank of England (BoE) 
Like the ECB, the BoE also announce their latest decision on interest rates. Also like the ECB, I don’t expect any changes or surprises. Sometimes the governor, Mark Carney, makes comments after the decision, and usually he is quite positive about the Pound. I don’t think the BoE decision will cause many waves, and all eyes will be on the ECB US Federal Reserve 
This evening, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, when the central bank announced its decision to begin trimming its Quantitative Easing programme will be released. Much like with the ECB, it’s comments that are sometimes made that will move the markets, and if the minutes are very positive, expect Pound/Dollar rates to drop back away. Getting the best exchange rates I guess you will be reading this as you are keen to know which way exchange rates may go, and want to make sure you get the best rate possible, at the best time; while markets cannot be predicted, hopefully my blog is proving useful for you in this respect.Feel free to send me a free enquiry by clicking below, and I can get in touch to discuss your particular requirements, and answer any questions you may have on exchange rates. I can also help you achieve exchange rates that are up to 5% better than banks can offer, and so the savings can be considerable. So get in touch today, it costs nothing, and you may be very surprised how much you can save. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 6th January 2014 Good afternoon everybody and welcome to a new year. I am back in action today with regular updates on exchange rates. For new readers, this blog is updated several times per week with an outline of what is happening with exchange rates. This should prove useful for anyone following the currency markets that needs to buy or sell foreign currency, perhaps when buying or selling abroad or for example business’s that import or export to other countries. In addition to my blog providing currency updates and foreign exchange forecasts, I can also help you source exchange rates up to 5% better than you can achieve at banks and other financial institutions through the company I work for. If you are interested in getting a quote or would like to find out more, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. So what has been happening with exchange rates so far in 2014? 
It’s been a relatively muted start to the year. Pound/Euro rates remain a little above €1.20 which is around the highest in a year, and Pound/Dollar rates remain just above $1.64 which is not far off the highest in several years. In my last post I outlined what had been happening last year that had caused rates to rise to the current highs. So far this year, the Pounds rise seems to have ended. On the first working day of the year we saw some disappointing Manufacturing figures that pulled Sterling lower, but Construction figures impressed and this brought things back to where they were. Today has been relatively quiet on the markets, with a mix of data from Germany that weakened the Euro a little, but not by much. So today I will list the remaining data releases this week that I think will affect exchange rates. Remember if you would like to get a free quote or discuss your requirement with me for free, you can send me a free enquiry by clicking here. This week’s data that could affect exchange rates. Tuesday 7th January 2014 There aren’t any releases from the UK today, so those looking at Pound/Euro rates will be focusing on data from Europe. We have German Unemployment and Retail Sales, along with inflation data for the Eurozone as a whole. Better than expected figures would strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower. Elsewhere US Trade Balance figures could affect Pound/Dollar rates. Wednesday 8th January 2014 Again nothing of note from the UK. EU data today is Retail Sales and Unemployment data, and if the numbers differ from forecast, expect volatility in the Pound/Euro rate. In the USA we have Mortgage Approvals, Employment data, and minutes from the recent FED meeting where QE tapering was announced. Thursday 9th January 2014 We finally get going with some news from the UK: firstly we have Trade Balance numbers which are very important for the economy, and so could affect the value of the Pound. At lunchtime we have the latest decision on QE and interest rates; I don’t expect any change, but any comments that accompany the announcement could have an effect on exchange rates. In the Eurozone we also have an interest rate decision, and I expect rates to stay on hold at 0.25%. Again as with the UK, in the press conference after the decision, any hint at a future rate cut could weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates higher. We also see Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, and Industrial confidence measures. We end the day with Jobless numbers from the United States. Friday 10th January 2014 The only UK data of note today is Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers released at 09.30am. We also have a GDP estimate from the National Institute for Economic and Social research. The most recent estimate was 0.8% - anything above this will cause the Pound to rise, and vice versa. Today we also see US Non-Farm payrolls – the actual figure is usually quite different to the forecast, as it’s so hard to predict, and therefore causes swings in the GBP/USD rate. - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
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Monday 30th December 2013 Welcome back, and I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas! Pound/Euro rates have fallen a little today, from €1.20 down to €1.1940 at the time of writing. For something a little different, in today’s post I am going to take a retrospective look at what has happened with key currency pairs throughout 2013, including Pound/Euro. I will explain what has happened with exchange rates and what caused them to move.I will also take a view on what the exchange rate forecast is for 2014, so anyone with a currency requirement in the next 12 months should find this useful. Remember I don't just write about the markets - I am a senior currency broker for one of the UK's leading currency brokerages, and can help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks will offer you, potentially saving you thousands of Pounds. I have 8 years experience in the industry, so if you need to the best exchange rates, take advantage of my knowledge by getting in touch for a free chat about exchange rates. So read on to see what the future holds for your exchange rate, and to find out more about the services I offer, send me a free enquiry by clicking here. Pound/Euro in 2013, and the forecast for 2014It has been a year of mixed fortunes for Sterling/Euro rates, but as 2013 comes to a close rates remain close to the best they have been all year. 
We started the year very strongly with rates above €1.20. As the year progressed however, rates fell steadily for the first part of the year, dropping as low as 1.15. This was due to the UK’s ongoing Quantitative Easing programme, and concerns over how well the economy was growing. 
In the summer the Pounds’ fortunes were reversed, and the UK economic recovery really took hold, and rates started to rise again. Part of the gains were due to the improving economy picture in the UK, including better growth figures and falling unemployment.
The other factor in the Pounds gains was when Mark Carney took over the helm of the Bank of England. When he did so, his ‘Forward Guidance’ approach and general positivity about UK growth gave investors’ confidence. As unemployment continues to fall, it’s likely that interest rates may start to rise in the UK, and that has also given the Pound strength helping rates rise.
So where will Pound/Euro go in 2014? Well if things continue to improve and unemployment keeps dropping, I think the Pound could break above €1.20 and get to the mid €1.25’s in 2014. This isn’t a given however, as if the exchange rate gets too high, we may well see the Bank of England move to devalue Sterling. They would do this as if the rate gets too high, it would make exports from the UK less attractive, so for this reason we might not see rates get much above €1.20.
If you need to buy or sell Euros in 2014, then contact me for a free consultation on your options, to make sure you make the most of your currency transaction.
Pound/US Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
It’s a similar story driven by the UK economy. Rates fell for the first part of the year, and then recovered and currently sit near the best in 2 years. Part of this is due to the same reasons I have outlined above with regards to the UK economy.
The other factor is that the US is now starting to wind up their Quantitative Easing programme. This has given investors more confidence in the Global economy, and so the US ‘safe haven’ Dollar has started to weaken, making it cheaper to buy.
In 2014 this currency pair is hard to forecast due to its safe haven status. On the one hand, a recovering UK economy would mean rates rising. However as the US economy is also starting to improve, this could give strength to the Dollar and bring rates back down into the $1.50’s, which many forecasts I read are now suggesting.
So if you have Dollar requirements, buying or selling, in 2014, it’s important you know all your options and have a clear understanding of what may move the rate. Click here to get in touch with me to discuss your requirements and make sure you’re well placed to get the best possible rate.
Pound/Australian Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
This currency pair earlier in the year was at its lowest in decades, but in recent months has risen again and is currently sitting at its highest in nearly 4 years! So what has been going on?
Well the reason it was so low is due to China. Australia has a huge mining industry, and China buy lots of raw materials from Australia. This huge demand from China had caused the Aussie Dollar to become incredibly strong, and therefore expensive to buy – this is why rates were very low earlier in the year.
However China’s economy is now growing at a much slower rate and this means less demand for Australian raw materials. As such, the AUD has weakened quite a bit, and helped along by the strengthening pound we now see the best rates for many years. The wildfires in the Country also harmed its agricultural industry, further weakening the currency. If you have an AUD requirement, click here to find out what I can offer.
Get in touch today to get the best exchange rates. 
I can trade most major international currencies, and the rates I can offer you can be up to 5% better than banks can offer. The savings can be considerable, so if you will have a requirement to buy or sell currency in 2014, get in touch with me to see how I can assist you.
In addition to better rates, I can talk over what is moving the exchange rate, and what factors may influence it in 2014. In this way you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and of course by using my services, the rate you get when you decide to move ahead is much better than your bank will offer.
In 2013 I have helped hundreds of clients save tens of thousands of Pounds by getting better rates of exchange. It costs nothing to make an enquiry and get a quote to compare with your bank, so click below to find out more about my service.Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
I hope regular and new readers alike have found my posts useful, and I look forward to continuing providing an insight into exchange rates throughout 2014. I would also like to everyone a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Alastair Archbold
Friday 20th December 2014 This will be my last post for a week, and I’ll be back in action on Monday the 30th of December. With regards to exchange rates, Sterling remains strong after figures showed the UK economy is growing faster than previously estimated. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product was up 0.8%; however it revised its growth figures for earlier quarters. This means the estimated annual growth rate has now risen from 1.5% to 1.9%, a revision that has surprised economists. Sterling currently sits at €1.1955 vs the Euro and $1.6377 vs the US Dollar. In other UK economic news, ONS data showed that Britain's current account deficit - the difference between the money received from exports and imports - widened sharply in the third quarter to £20.7bn, up from £6.2bn in the second quarter. This countered any gains the growth figures would have caused, and so there has not been much volatility in exchange rates. So that’s it from me for a while. I hope everybody has a lovely Christmas, and I will be back with more currency news on exchange rates on the 30th December. Remember if you are looking for the best exchange rates, I can help you source levels up to 5% better than banks can offer. You can click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry and one of my colleagues can get in touch to discuss your requirement and explain the service we offer. Once again a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 18th December 2013 In my last post I outlined the data this week that I thought would have an impact on exchange rates. I pointed out that today (Wednesday) would likely cause changes in currency rates due to some key data including Unemployment and the latest Bank of England (BoE) minutes. Unemployment was lower than expected pushing the Pound higher, but comments from the Bank of England threaten to put the brakes on the Pounds rise. In today’s post I’m going to take a detailed look at what has happened, and what it means for the exchange rate forecast. UK unemployment falls, Sterling rises. The UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed this morning. The market expected a figure of 7.6%, however the actual number came in at 7.4%; the lowest rate since February 2009. As a result, the Pound has risen against the Euro by 1 cent to €1.1915, and also by a cent against the US Dollar to $1.64. As the chart above shows, the news gave Sterling a boost and caused exchange rates to rise, as I predicted would be the case on Monday. So why exactly did the Pound gain? This 7.4% rate compares with a figure of 7.6% for the three months to September, and is below the rate analysts had expected. The Bank of England has said it will not consider raising interest rates from their record low of 0.5% until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, so the fact that we are getting closer to the 7% target means interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than expected. Higher rates of interest attract investment due to the higher return, and this means demand for Sterling causing it to rise in value, and in turn push exchange rates up. However, the BoE governor Mark Carney has said an interest rate increase is not guaranteed even when unemployment falls to this level. Indeed as we will see in a moment, the BoE could even move to weaken the Pound in the coming months.Click here to get a quote BoE say that Sterling strength not good for the UK 
So the Pound is strong, exchange rates are rising, the economy is growing, so all is well right? Not necessarily. Sterling's recent strength risks derailing Britain's recovery and could jeopardise attempts to rebalance the economy, the Bank of England said this morning. The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said while sterling's gains over the last 4 weeks reflected a stronger economic outlook, further rises could harm export growth. You can read the full minutes yourself by clicking here. Half our exports go to the Eurozone and so if the Pound gets much stronger, our goods become more expensive and so our recovery could start to falter. "Any further substantial appreciation of sterling would pose additional risks to the balance of demand growth and to the recovery," minutes from the Bank's December meeting showed. Sterling is at a five year high on a trade-weighted basis, where it is measured against a basket of other currencies, and the Bank said that for Britain's "burgeoning" economic recovery to be sustainable, it needs to rely more on business investment and exports and less on consumer demand. So you have been warned; this is the clearest signal I have seen yet that the BoE may move to devalue Sterling as they did in the summer of 2012 when rates fell from €1.30 to €1.14. Will the Pound go up or down against the Euro? Summary - when should you fix your rate?
On the one hand the UK economy is good, the Pound is gaining value, and this could continue should economic numbers continue to impress. This would be good news for those that need to buy Euros, but not so good for those looking to convert back into Sterling. On the other hand, if the Pound gets much stronger, might we see the Bank of England move to devalue the Pound due to the reasons I have outlined above? This would lower exchange rates, meaning it could be wise to fix a rate soon while it’s on a high. There is no way to predict what will happen, but if you need to make the most of your exchange, having a good currency broker on your side can make a huge difference. In addition to helping you achieve rates up to 5% better than banks can offer, I can explain various options and contract types that I have available, that can protect you against rates moving against you, while still allowing you to take advantage if the market moves in your favour. The first step is to send me a free enquiry by clicking below. I can then have a brief discussion regarding your requirements, explain the options you have, and enable you to make an informed decision on when to fix your rate of exchange. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 16th December 2013 Good afternoon. It's been a quiet start to the week, and since my last post Pound/Euro rates remain in the mid €1.18's, and Pound/Dollar rates around $1.63. This week will be key to whether rates continue dropping as they have in the last week, or resume the trend of the last few months which has seen the Pound rise against other currencies.
Sterling has been one of the currency market's surprises since the summer, having risen consistently over the last 6 months. As I've been explaining over the last few weeks, really impressive economic data has strengthened the Pound, and it's also been helped by the view that interest rates may rise earlier than previously expected. This week in my view will be key to the direction Sterling takes over the next month, as we have some key economic data releases including inflation data on Tuesday, and minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and jobless data on Wednesday, followed by Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday.
So in today's post I'm going to list all the things to look out for which may cause volatility in exchange rates this week. Looking for excellent exchange rates? This weeks economic data releases that may affect exchange rates Monday 16th December
This morning we saw EU Manufacturing and inflation numbers, which were better than expected. This caused the Euro to strengthen and pulled GBP/EUR rates lower. This afternoon we have Speech by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, which may cause further volatility in Euro rates. Tuesday 17th DecemberStarting in Australian we have the RBA minutes and a speech which may cause changes in GBP/AUD rates. Closer to home, at 09:30am we have a raft of inflation data. This is linked to future interest rate movements so could change Sterling’s value. In the Eurozone we also have a raft of inflation numbers in addition to some surveys that look at Economic Sentiment. Over in the States we have more inflation numbers and house price data. Wednesday 18th DecemberThis is the key day for the Pound. At 09:30am we have the minutes to the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates and Quantitative Easing. The minutes show what was discussed and often cause exchange rates to fluctuate. We also have the latest unemployment figures. This is key as future interest rate movements have been linked to a drop in Unemployment figures, so if the number is any lower than 7.6% expect the Pound to make gains, and vice versa. The rest of today’s data is from the USA – Building Permits, Mortgage Approvals, an Interest Rate decision, and economic projections from the FED. So all in all, a key day for both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates. Thursday 19th DecemberUK data today is Retail Sales. This is seen as a good overall barometer of economic activity so it could be another choppy day for Sterling. There are no EU releases of any significance, but over in the USA in the afternoon we do have Jobless Numbers, and Home Sales figures. Friday 20th DecemberAnother very important day for the Pound. We have a measure of consumer confidence, but I think the main event will be the latest Gross Domestic Product figures released at 09:30am. GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. This is key as it will indicate whether the UK recovery is sustained, so could push rates higher or lower depending if the number is higher or lower than the expected +0.8%. Elsewhere, GDP numbers from the states are released at 13:30pm, and a Consumer Confidence measure for the Eurozone at 3pm. Looking for the best exchange rates? Make a free enquiry today If you are looking for the best exchange rates, and would like to discuss how the above data could affect the exchange rate you're interested in, then send me a free enquiry today. I offer a free consultation service where I can discuss your particular requirements, and explain what could move the rate for or against you. This can help you to decide when to fix an exchange rate.
In addition to taking advantage of my market knowledge, I can also help you source excellent commercial exchange rates, that are up to 5% better than banks can offer.
If you have a requirement to convert a large volume of funds, the savings can be considerable. Find out how much you could save by clicking below and sending me a free enquiry now.
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now.
