Could pound/Euro rates be about to fall?

Thursday 9th July 2015

Deadline day for Greece 

By midnight tonight, Greece has to submit its plans and new proposals to its creditors to try and secure a bailout and prevent a possible exit from the Eurozone. What they submit will then be looked at by EU Finance ministers at the weekend, and a decision is likely to be taken on whether to accept them at an EU Summit on Sunday. 
 
Greece needs to make a deal. At the moment the banks there are still closed, and a €60.00 limit on ATM withdrawals. At this rate, it’s likely the banks will run out of money by Monday, so it really is crunch time for the Greeks. 

With the referendum out of the way, I think it’s quite likely that Greece will now soften its demands. They really have taken the negotiations as far as then can, and they know it’s in their interests to now make a deal to restructure its debt. EU leaders are almost out of patience, Greece knows this, and so a deal could be struck this weekend. 

What could this mean for Sterling/Euro exchange rates? 

I am still of the view that a deal will be done and Greece will remain within the Eurozone. If a deal is indeed done to restructure Greece’s debts this weekend, then it will remove much of the uncertainty that has been weakening the Euro of late, and so in this eventuality I would expect Pound/Euro rates to fall. We’ve already seen it drop down to €1.39 as investors await news of a potential bail out deal, and I would expect a further fall should the saga finally be resolved. 

The other scenario is Greece rejecting whatever solutions the EU Summit present. If this were to happen, then the negotiations could break down entirely. There isn’t actually a mechanism in place for Greece to leave the Euro, so all parties know that the only real solution is a deal. 
 
Do you have a currency transaction to perform? 

For those that need to buy Euros and are worried about rates dropping from the current level, you can reserve the current rate now and only lodge a 10% deposit to guarantee that rate for up to  2 years into the future. In this way you can budget effectively and be protected against the rate falling away from the current level which is near to an 8 year high. Click here to find out more. 

If you want to get the best possible exchange rates, then contact me for a quote. I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+. You can send me a free enquiry using the link below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and discuss the different options you can consider to help you get the best rate of exchange possible. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today.
 

How solution to Greek crisis could affect exchange rates

Monday 22nd June 2015 
This week, and today in particular, is quite a critical one for Greece, and the GBP/EUR exchange rate along with it. Many headlines are suggesting that this is the ‘Last Chance’ for Greece. There have been many of these before, and I don’t think today will provide a complete solution. 

What exactly is happening in Greece? 

They need to make a debt payment of €1.6 billion by next Tuesday, 30th June. However to be able to actually meet that payment, they need to get a further €7 billion in aid, and that’s what they’re trying to agree today, however to get the funds, the Greeks need to reform pensions and cut spending, which is difficult for their Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to agree to, given he was elected on the premise of ending austerity. 

Early this morning, he met the leaders of the IMF, ECB and EU commission to outline his proposals. Just before lunch, the EU’s finance ministers started a meeting to see if they can agree on a deal to give Greece the bailout funds they need. Later this evening at 6pm all the EU leaders meet for an emergency summit to debate the crisis. 

How could Greece affect the GBP/EUR exchange rate? 

The uncertainty over Greece’s ability to obtain bailout funds has meant there is a risk of them leaving the Euro. This fear has been keeping the Euro weak, and that’s why the GBP/EUR exchange rate has been hovering around the €1.40 level of late. 

If they reach an agreement later today, or later this week, then I would expect the Euro to strengthen and cause the GBP/EUR rate to fall. However we’ve seen quite a few of these ‘last chances’ for Greece, and it could be that this weeks meetings simply kick the can down the road a little further, without actually sorting out the fundamental issues. If so, expect rates to remain supported. With worried Greeks currently withdrawing their savings from the banks in huge amounts, it's clear that a solution needs to be founds quickly. 

Personally I think they will all agree a way forwards sooner or later, which could mean the current GBP/EUR levels may not last for long. 

Are you looking to convert £5000+ on a bank to bank transfer basis, and keen on getting the best exchange rates? 

If you need to convert currency, and would like to get a quote to see how much I could save you on your exchange, then it is certainly worth sending me a free enquiry to obtain a quotation and more information on the services I offer. The rates I can achieve are significantly better than banks and other financial institutions offer, by as much as 5% in some cases. I also offer various types of contracts that can protect you against adverse exchange rate movements that banks don’t usually offer to private clients. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

Why has Pound fallen against Euro June 2015?

Tuesday 2nd June 2015
This morning we have seen GBP/EUR rates plummet, with the currency pair falling by 2.5 cents from €1.3950 this morning, to €1.37 at the time of writing:

What has caused the drop? 

The reason for the drop was a strengthening Euro. Earlier today we saw the latest EU inflation numbers, and these showed that inflation in the Eurozone turned positive in May after five months of negativity, and this revives hopes of an economic recovery in Europe. Earlier this year, the European Central bank embarked on a huge €1.1 trillion Quantitative Easing, or money printing programme in an attempt to stimulate the Eurozone economy, and the figures today suggest that this is working. That is why the Euro gained strength and has become more expensive to buy. 

Meanwhile in Greece… 

Also today there may have been developments in Greece. Their Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said that he has issued "a realistic proposal" to its international creditors in an attempt to secure a deal over its debts. "We have submitted a realistic plan for Greece to exit the crisis," he said. The problem is, we don’t know what this plan actually entails! International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and ECB president Mario Draghi are at a meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's Francois Hollande discussing the issue at the moment, and their attendance shows how serious these talks are. 

If they really have made a plan that might be accepted, expect the Euro to gain further strength in the coming days pushing rates even lower. If however his plans come to nothing, then the uncertainty about what will happen with Greece will remain, and this could weaken the Euro and cause rates to recover 

Worried about Pound/Euro exchange rates? 

If you need to convert Pounds to Euros, or Euros back to Pounds at the best rates, then you can send me an enquiry to have a free consultation on exchange rates. I can discuss your particular requirements, explain what could move the exchange rate, and explain various options you can consider as to when to fix an exchange rate. I can also provide you a quote for your exchange that could be up to 5% better than available at your bank, which could save you thousands of pounds on a large transfer. 

Click here to send a free enquiry today

Pound/Euro rises after ECB press conference

Thursday 6th November 2014 
The Sterling/Euro exchange rate has rocketed today, following comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi, as I predicted could well happen in my post earlier this week.

Central Bank Decisions and the Pound/Euro exchange rate 

Both the UK and EU central bank announced their latest decisions on interest rates today. There were no surprises, with both keeping their benchmark rates on hold. However after the EU decision, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, said in a press conference that the bank stands ready to give the Eurozone further economic stimulus "should it become necessary". Mr Draghi said: "Should it become necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate." 

Markets have taken this as a negative sign for the Eurozone, and the Euro weakened accordingly. As you can see form the chart below, there was a significant spike of around 1 cent, bringing the GBP/EUR rate to within a cent or so of the highest it’s been in 6 years. 

What next for Pound/Euro? 

To me the trend is just repeating itself. Many times over the last few months we have seen rates reach this level, before dipping back off again. Without anything on the horizon likely to strengthen the Pound, I think there is a good chance we could see the rate drop back again. If you need to buy Euros, I would consider locking in a rate now while it’s so good. You can fix the current rate for up to 2 years and only lodge 10% of what you want to convert. 

Euro sellers have a tougher decision. Longer term forecasts suggest the rate getting to €1.30, but short term you could see moves in your favour. If you need to buy or sell Euros, or indeed any international currency then click below to make a free enquiry on the rates I can source for you. I can help with bank to bank transfers from amounts from £5k to £5m. I’m afraid I cannot help with cash or holiday funds. 

Click here to make a free no obligation enquiry today.

GBP/USD falls as FED announce end to QE

Thursday 30th October 2014 
Sterling/Dollar has plummeted overnight, following the FED’s expected decision to end its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. This also had the effect of weakening the Euro, pushing GBP/EUR rates higher. The charts below show the currency movements: 

FED announce end to QE 

The US Federal Reserve has announced it is ending its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme, saying that it was confident the US economic recovery would continue, despite a global economic slowdown. The central bank, which also said it would not raise interest rates for a "considerable time", has gradually cut back QE since last year. 

While the decision was expected, it did have the effect of strengthening the US Dollar, bringing rates down below the $1.60 mark, however this morning GBP/USD recovered to around $1.60. The main reason the rate fell is their hawkish tone on interest rates.

Pound/Euro rises 

As investors bought the Dollar, they sold the Euro which caused the single currency to weaken, pushing rates up above €1.27. This has happened several times over the last few months, so I expect rates to dip back off again in the coming days and weeks as has been the trend of late. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

If you need to perform a currency transaction, get in touch with me today by clicking here. The rates I can provide are up to 5% better than banks or other brokers can offer. In addition to excellent rates, I can also provide an insight into what is moving the rate, to help you to decide when to fix your rate.

Click here to send a free enquiry today.

GBP/EUR gains unlikely as UK interest Rates set to remain low

Wednesday 29th October 2014 
Pound/Euro rates have slipped slightly in the last 24 hours, bringing the mid-market rate down to €1.2647. While a little lower than the recent 6 year high, it’s still a very attractive buying level for Euros given that last summer rates were as low as €1.14. 

GBP/EUR gains unlikely as UK interest Rates set to remain low 

Part of the reason the Pound has failed to go any higher against the Euro is the fact interest rates are no longer expected to go up any time soon. Reinforcing this view was a speech this week from the Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor Jon Cunliffe. 

In it he said that interest rates can be kept at their current record low level for longer than first thought, saying that weak pay and lower inflation, coupled with slower UK growth and slowdown in the global economy meant the BoE should remain "cautious". 

So with rates now set to remain at their record low of 0.5% for quite some time, it’s hard to see what would push Sterling exchange rates higher. Those that need to buy Euros should therefore consider locking in a rate now while it is still close to the 6 year high. 

Those selling Euros however should be cautious. While the Pound is unlikely to gain, a deterioration of the EU economy could weaken the Euro, meaning less Pounds for those that are converting the single currency back to Sterling. 

If you need to convert Pounds to Euros, or Euros to Pounds, click here to get a free quote and find out more about the foreign exchange services I offer. Rates I source are up to 5% better than banks can offer, so you could save thousands of Pounds by comparing the rates I offer. 

Pound/Dollar set to drop? 

GBP/USD has been on the way down for a few months now, dropping from $1.72 to $1.60. Currently rates hold firm around $1.6140. However the US Federal Reserve is expected to announce the end of its quantitative easing (QE) programme later, and this could strengthen the Dollar, make it more expensive to buy and pull the GBP/USD rate down further. 

The FED has been gradually cutting back the scheme, which began in 2008, since late last year. The end of QE, assuming it does indeed come, will nonetheless be an important milestone in the repair of the US economy and likely strengthen the Dollar. 

Whether it makes a difference to the GBP/USD rate however remains to be seen. As it’s widely expected to happen, it will be priced into the rate already, but it’s impossible to know by how much. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates drop below the $1.60 level throughout the rest of 2014. 

If you have a requirement to buy or sell USD, click here to send me a free enquiry to see how I can assist you in getting the best possible rates.

Will Pound go up or down for rest of 2014?

Tuesday 23rd September 2014 
As I write today’s post Ed Miliband is giving a party conference speech. I’m choosing this time to write my report as I don’t think his words will have any effect on exchange rates whatsoever, and the currency markets will also be taking little interest in his comments. It is likely however that with the Scottish referendum now out of the way, political uncertainty ahead of next year’s General Election will start to affect the Pound. In today's post I'll give my views on what could move exchange rates for the rest of the year.

The currency markets don’t like uncertainty, and I think that is keeping the Pound in check from going any higher. Following last week’s spike in the Pound, exchange rates now seem settled at around €1.27 vs the Euro and $1.6350 against the US Dollar. 

One example of the uncertainty relating to the UK economy, is possible constitutional changes in the United Kingdom following the Scottish referendum. This could affect investment into the UK and so weaken the Pound off slightly. This combined with the upcoming election is likely to keep the Pound from gaining significantly. 

What could affect exchange rates this week?

The only thing I can see this week that could affect the Pound is a speech by the Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney on Thursday. He hasn’t exactly been consistent in his comments on when interest rates will go up in the UK, so the markets will be watching for any comments he may make. Any hint of a rate rise then the Pound could strengthen, if he is dovish however and hints rates are set to remain on hold for some time, we could well see Sterling exchange rates drop away. 

All in all, I think those that need to convert Pounds to another currency should consider taking the rate while it’s close to a multi-year high. Even if you don’t need your currency for some time, you can fix today’s rates for up to 2 years by lodging 10% of the total you need to convert. 

What if I'm converting Euros back to Pounds?

One thing that could affect things if you are converting Euros to Pounds however, is the chance of further stimulus by Europe. If the European Central Bank decide on further drastic measures to try and boost the economy, the Euro could weaken pushing Pound/Euro rates up. 

Below I will list the other things I think could change exchange rates this week. Remember that if you need to convert currency, perhaps for a property abroad for example, you can get in touch with me for a quote by clicking here. I can source excellent exchange rates very close to the ‘mid-market’ level and you could save thousands of Pounds by getting a slightly better rate. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry and obtain a quote 

This week’s remaining economic data that could affect exchange rates 

Wednesday 24th September – Quite today in terms of economic data releases. We have some Business Climate and sentiment measures from Germany that could affect Pound/Euro. In the states we have information on mortgage approvals and home sales that could affect Pound/US Dollar. 

Thursday 25th September – The only real UK data of note today is a speech by Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney. He hasn’t exactly been consistent in his comments on when interest rates will go up in the UK, so the markets will be watching for any comments he may make. Any hint of a rate rise then the Pound could strengthen, if he is dovish however and hints rates are set to remain on hold for some time, we could well see Sterling exchange rates drop away. 

Friday 25th September – Another quiet day with the only thing likely to move Pound/Euro rates being a consumer confidence survey from Germany. All other data is from the USA – GDP figures, consumption and expenditure, and a consumer sentiment index. All of this could affect GBP/USD rates. 

If you want the best exchange rates, send me a free enquiry by clicking here.

Pound/Euro hits 2 year high - Best Euro Exchange Rates

Friday 4th July 2014 
It’s been very quiet on the markets today due to the Independence Day holiday. There were developments yesterday however when we saw the Euro weaken after the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi make comments about interest rates. 

ECB comments weaken Euro pushing GBP/EUR above €1.26 

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi said yesterday that Eurozone interest rates will stay at 0.15% for an "extended period" of time. He also said that the ECB was "unanimous in its commitment" to using "unconventional instruments within its mandate". 

What does this mean? Well firstly low interest rates mean the EU is not an attractive place to hold funds. As a result investors sold Euros, weakening the single currency making it cheaper to buy, and as a result the Pound/Euro rate has broken the €1.26 level, and it’s now the best time to buy Euros for nearly 2 years. 

How to take advantage of the current rate 

Rates had been stuck at €1.25 for the last month, moving within a cent of that rate. We’ve been at similar levels to this several times in the last few months, only for rates to drop back away. 

While it’s impossible to know if rates will fall again, or rise further, now is certainly a good time to secure Euros given it’s the best rate for 2 years. 

You can lock in the current rate even if you don’t need your currency now. A Forward contract allows you to reserve the current rate by lodging 10% of the total amount you want to convert. When you want your currency delivered to your account, you simply settle the remaining 90%. 

In this way you can guarantee your rate, protect yourself against the market dropping, and budget effectively for your currency requirement; especially useful if you are buying property abroad for example. 

Get in touch with me for a free consultation 

To find out more about Forward contracts, get a free quote, or simply discuss your currency requirement click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

I can source rates for over 30 currency pairs, for example GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, Euros back to Pounds etc. – the rates I can achieve are up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker may offer, so why not get a free quote. It only takes a few minutes, does not cost or obligate you in any way, and you save thousands of Pounds. 

Click here to send a free enquiry now.

Best Exchange Rates for GBP/EUR & GBP/AUD

Tuesday 20th May 2014
Good afternoon. We've seen the Pound rise this morning, touching a 16 month high (€1.23) against the Euro again, after figures showed that inflation rose more than expected last month. Despite the increase in the CPI inflation measure, the rate is still below the Bank of England's 2% target for inflation. 



Last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said he expected the rate of inflation to remain below its target for the next two years; however the slight rise does slightly increase the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK, which is why Sterling rose. 

We’ll get further information on this subject tomorrow morning, when the Bank of England releases the minutes to its recent meeting where rates were held. It will show what was discussed and how they voted. I don’t really expect anything new from the minutes and I would be surprised if GBP/EUR pushes through the €1.23 barrier. 

We’ve seen that level tested a few times recently, but it would take some very impressive UK data to strengthen the Pound enough to push it through that level. Retail Sales numbers are also released tomorrow, and the figures are expected to show a 0.5% increase. A differing figure could affect rates further. 

Eurozone stimulus still the focus for Pound/Euro rates 

The Pound is quite strong at the moment, but the main driving force pushing Sterling/Euro higher is expectation on what the European Central bank will do to combat deflation. There has been lots of talk recently of possible stimulus measures in the EU. If this happens then the Euro could weaken further, which would cause GBP/EUR rates to go up. 

However one ECB member recently said that asset purchases were “one of a string of measures being considered”, adding to the debate on what the bank is likely to do at its meeting at the start of June. If they do announce stimulus, expect Pound/Euro to push higher. If they don’t, then I think we’ll see rates drop back away again. 

Pound/Australian Dollar 

GBP/AUD has also risen in the last few days, pushing up to $1.82. A year ago it was down at $1.45 so the current levels are quite attractive to those that need to buy Aussie Dollars. Again this is partly due to a strong Pound, but also a weakening Aussie. One of the country’s biggest exports is Iron Ore, and we’ve seen a drop in the price of this commodity. 

Get in touch for the Best Currency Rates 

If you would like a quote on the exchange rates I can provide, or simply have a chat about what is moving the markets to help you to decide when to fix your rate, then get in touch with me. 

I work for one of the UK’s leading independent foreign exchange brokerages, and have 15 years experience in this sector. I can source rates of exchange that are usually much better than those offered by banks and other brokers. 

Click here to get in touch

Alastair Archbold

Will exchange rates go up or down this week?

Monday 31st March 2014 
We have seen the Pound slide off a little at the start of the trading week, with GBP/EUR falling from €1.21 down to €1.2050, a drop of around 0.4%. This was mainly due to consumer credit being lower than expected, reflecting a lack of confidence surrounding the UK economy. This afternoon however it's bounced back to where we started around the €1.21 level, so all in all no change.

There are lots of economic data releases this week that could affect exchange rates, so as usual for a Monday I am going to list what I think are the most important releases, and analyse how this could affect the currency markets. 

If you need to convert one currency to another, on a bank to bank basis for volumes between £5k and £10m, then read on, as my thoughts below can help you decide when may be the best time to fix your rate. Get in touch if you would like a quote, or to discuss your currency requirement with me in detail.

This weeks economic data releases...

Monday 31st March 2014 

As I’ve already outlined above, the only UK data was slightly disappointing, taking the steam out of Sterling’s recovery. We also saw some EU inflation data this morning, which was roughly in line with expectations. Interestingly the BBC pitch this as terrible news, meaning a possible rate cut by the ECB - if that were the case, Pound/Euro would have gone up, not down.

The only other thing of interest today is a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney. His comments have recently had a big impact on the value of the Pound. In short if he is positive about the economy, Sterling may gain strength. I think it’s more likely he will have quite a cautionary tone, mirroring the BoE’s recent comments about being concerned about the Pound getting to much stronger, so I think a drop is more likely. 

Tuesday 1st April 2014 

We’ll start in Australia today, and early in the morning we have their interest rate decision. I think it’s very likely they will leave it at 2.5%. GBP/AUD rates have fallen recently due to more demand for their raw materials from China. 

UK Manufacturing figures are released at 09:30 and I expect a reading of 56.9. Higher means exchange rates could rise accordingly and vice versa. 

German and EU Unemployment figures are released from Europe today, so those looking to buy Euros need poor numbers here, which would weaken the Euro and make it cheaper to buy. We also have unemployment from the United States, along with some manufacturing numbers. 

Wednesday 2nd April 2014 

Some construction data from the UK today to follow yesterday’s manufacturing. The forecast is 63.00 and as always, a differing result could affect Sterling exchange rates. 

The main event today however is EU GDP, which will show how their economy is growing. Their last released showed very small growth of 0.1%. Any better, expect GBP/EUR rates to drop away due to a stronger Euro. 

Thursday 3rd April 2014 

As always for the first Thursday in the month, the European Central Bank announces its interest rate, which is 99.9% likely to stay at 0.25%. Euro buyers or sellers should pay close attention to the press conference afterwards by President Mario Draghi. He may hint at a negative deposit rate – if he does, I think Pound/Euro will march upwards. The EU also released Retail Sales figures today, which are a good barometer of overall economic activity. 

Elsewhere, Australian Trade Balance figures and Retail Sales are announced, and over in the States we have Trade Balance numbers and Jobless numbers. 

Friday 4th April 2014 

The only data of interest today is stateside – Earnings and Unemployment, along with non-farm payrolls. Non-farms is always interesting, and it announces how many new jobs have been created, excluding the farming sector (because it’s seasonal). It’s notoriously difficult to forecast, and the consensus is that 196,000 new jobs will have been created. 

It’s likely the actual number will differ significantly from that – lower, then GBP/USD will rise, higher, and it will fall. Personally I think it will be quite a bit lower, closer to 130,000. We will see! 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

I can help you achieve an exchange rate up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker may offer. The savings can be considerable, so why not get in touch for a free quote? If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

• Click here to send a free enquiry 
• Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

Pound/Euro exchange rates - €1.21

Friday 28th March 2014 
Sterling has risen to €1.2120 against the Euro, before dropping back away this afternoon. In today’s post I’ll look at this weeks figures that have caused the Pound to gain, and run over the tools I can provide to help you achieve the best foreign exchange rates in 2014 

Sterling/Euro hits €1.21 

The Pound has risen to €1.21 in the last few days, helped along by some very strong Retail Sales figures. Since the Pound/Euro exchange rate had rate dropped below €1.20, it stayed below that level for over a week, hitting resistance every time it threatened to break through. It was the significantly better than forecast Retail Sales figures that finally gave the Pound the push it needed. 

Once it had broken through the resistance level, it kept rising over €1.21 briefly, before some less impressive UK figures caused it to drop back again. 

Poor deficit and GDP figures halt Sterling’s rise 

Figures this morning showed that the UK's current account deficit was much larger than expected. The deficit in the three months to December was £22.4bn, only marginally lower than the all-time high of £22.8bn recorded in the previous quarter. Economists had expected the UK's deficit to narrow to about £14bn in the final three months of the year. One analyst described the deficit as "worryingly large". 

The poor figure halted the rise in the value of the Pound, and the fact that UK GDP numbers were less than the previous estimate also caused a slight fall. 

What can you do if you need to buy Euros? 

The rise in the rate is welcome news, but recently the Bank of England has warned against the Pound gaining much more strength. If I needed Euros, I would look at the current rate and realise it’s within 1% or so of the best it’s been in 15 months. It could go higher of course as it’s impossible to predict, but I think by hanging on you are holding out for an inch, while risking losing a yard. 

For this reason I would lock the current attractive levels with a Forward contract, which means you can reserve your exchange rate on the full amount you need to convert, but only lodge 10% of the total now. The remaining 90% is not required until you need your currency. You can lock in the rate for up to 2 years and thereby protect against a drop. 

I’m converting Euros to Pounds, what should I do? 

Just a few days ago the EUR/GBP rate was the best it’s been all year. Now we’re above €1.20, the resistance level I mentioned in a recent post now becomes a support level. This means it’s unlikely to drop back through €1.20 any time soon. 

Some forecasts suggest the Pound will get stronger, although the Bank of England could try to stop it rising much further. That said, the average rate over the last 10 years is €1.30, so it’s actually still quite good. I think it’s going to hold at these levels for a while so I see no value in waiting for rates to drop as they are unlikely to do so. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways:

Click here to send a free enquiry 
Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

What could move exchange rates this week?

Monday 24th March 2014 
Good afternoon. It’s been a pretty quiet day with not much change in exchange rates since my post last Thursday. Pound/Euro remains at €1.1950, and Pound/Dollar remains at $1.6500. 

With regards to whether Pound/Euro rates will recover any time soon, my view hasn't changed. I don't think it will go back through €1.20 unless we get some economic data that is significantly better than forecast. 

In the absence of anything new to move the markets, today I will list all the weeks’ data that I think might affect exchange rates this week. UK GDP data and a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi could both affect GBP/EUR exchange rates moving forwards. 

This week’s economic data releases that may affect exchange rates. 

Monday 24th March 2014 

Exchange rates have been relatively flat today, however we did see a raft of Inflation data from the Eurozone this morning. The figures were a little lower than expected, weakening the Euros and pushing GBP/EUR rates from 1.1940 to 1.1970, so a slight increase but not by much. 

Tuesday 25th March 2014 

I think the most important release today is a speech by ECB president Mario Draghi at 4pm. It was his recent comments that caused GBP/EUR to drop below the €1.20 mark. If he continues to be upbeat about the EU economy, rates could dip further. 

Other than that, we have UK Inflation, in the shape of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). I expect this to be around the 1.6% mark. Any higher will push Sterling up and vice versa. 

Over in the states we have consumer confidence figures and Home Sales data, both of which could affect the Pound/Dollar rate. 

Wednesday 26th March 2014 

There is nothing of note from the UK or EU today, so focus will be on US data. This includes Durable Goods orders, Bank Stress tests, Inflation numbers and mortgage approvals. 

Thursday 27th March 2014 

UK Retail Sales are released at 09:30am this morning. These are closely watched as they reflect overall economic health. The number will be around 4.3% I should think. If it’s lower than this then the Pound will fall, and if higher we could see Sterling get a boost. 

Elsewhere all data is from the States – Jobless Claims, GDP figures, Home Sales – expect a choppy day for GBP/USD rates. 

Friday 28th March 2014 

Today will be a key day for Sterling exchange rates, as we have the latest GDP figures from the UK showing how the economy is growing. Quarterly growth is forecast to be 0.7%, so any deviation from that figure will affect the Pound accordingly. 

Elsewhere it’s a busy day in the EU, with Economic sentiment indicators and German inflation data being release, but all focus will be on the UK GDP numbers. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

Click here to send a free enquiry 
Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

Pound/Euro exchange rate forecast for 2014 changes after BoE comments

Wednesday 19th March 2014
It’s been a very busy day in the markets today, with UK Unemployment being released, along with the Bank of England minutes, a speech by governor Mark Carney, and of course the budget statement. This afternoon I will look at the effect each event had on exchange rates, and how this has affected my view on where rates are headed. 

First, let’s look at today’s GBP/EUR chart that reflects how exchange rates were affected: 

Mark Carney warns against strong Pound 

As you can see from the chart above, as soon as the market opened at 8am this morning, the Pound started to strengthen as I predicted it would yesterday. This was due to comments last night by BoE governor Mark Carney, in which he said the current low interest environment won’t be around forever. This gave the Pound strength on speculation of interest rates going up. 

It didn’t last long, and as you can see from the chart above, when the MPC minutes were released, it shows that many of the BoE members are concerned about a strong Pound. Sterling strengthened by 1.5 percent in the month running up to the March MPC meeting, hitting its highest in several years, but in the last week or so has weakened to the lowest it’s been all year. 

The MPC members noted the further strength in sterling, with Deputy governor Charlie Bean recently saying the BoE could keep interest rates lower for longer if sterling strengthens much more, adding that its current level was "fine". Another member recently said that that further strength in sterling would be a worry. 

What does this all mean? To me this means if you need to buy Euros at the best exchange rate, the current levels could be as good as it's going to get for some time.

UK Unemployment 

The latest Unemployment figures were released at the same time, and while the overall rate remains at 7.2% as I expected it would, the number of overall people in employment hit record highs. This did little to help the Pound, as all focus was on the BoE warning against the Pound getting stronger. 

UK Budget Statement 

As I predicted, it had absolutely no effect on exchange rates. Here I will only look at what could affect currency – basically Growth forecasts were up a little, and we’re getting a new Pound coin. Yay.

Look at the chart above, and you can see the markets were, as usual, underwhelmed by the Budget, with the Pound barely moving at all throughout the speech. The rest was mostly guff, and if interested you can read a full report on the budget here on the BBC site.

What does this mean for those looking at the best exchange rates? 

I have changed my view since my forecast yesterday. I now think it will take a few months before we get back through €1.20, in light of the BoE warning about the Pound getting stronger as I've outlined above. If I needed to buy Euros I would look to fix a rate now, or put protection in place against adverse movements.

They have hinted that they won’t let the rate get too much higher, so if you need to buy or sell Euros, consider doing something sooner rather than later. I don’t think it will drop much either due to the economy being fundamentally strong, so for the next few weeks I expect rates to remain range bound between 1.19 and 1.20 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

I don’t just trade the Euro; I provide commercial exchange rates for nearly all currencies, including EUR, USD, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD, ZAR, AED, HKD, JPY, NOK, SEK, DKK, HUF, TRY, CZK, PLN, SGD, THB. 

I am a senior Currency Broker, and the firm I represent is fully authorised by the FCA to ensure security of client funds. With an annual turnover of £500m I have access to the best foreign currency rates. If you need to convert currency I could save you a significant sum on your exchange. 

If you are looking for the best foreign exchange rates, get in touch with me today for a free quote. 

Click here to send a free enquiry 
Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

You can reach me between 08:30am and 17:30pm UK time. 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

Sterling/Euro drops below €1.20

Wednesday 12th March 2014 
The Pound/Euro exchange rate has continued to fall since my post last week, and has fallen below the €1.20 level for the first time this year. Several weeks ago I warned that there was a good chance the rate was about to drop, and that is what we have seen. 

In today’s post I will analyse the reasons for the drop, go over what options are available to protect against rates moving against you, and look at what other economic data is due this week that could affect rates. 

Pound/Euro drops below €1.20

For the first time this year, GBP/EUR rates have fallen back into the €1.19’s. Only a few weeks ago we were at highs of €1.22+. The rate started to decline last week when the ECB president Mario Draghi gave a very positive press conference about the Eurozone economy, as I outlined in a recent post. 

Since then, industrial production figures from the UK and EU have caused the exchange rate to drop further. The UK released its figures yesterday, and as the number was worse than expected Sterling fell in value. This morning the EU released its industrial production figures, and they were better than expected. This caused the Euro to rise in value and become more expensive to buy, and that’s the reason GBP/EUR rates have dipped into the €1.19’s. This is the lowest it has been all year:

Will rates drop further, or bounce back? 

It’s impossible to predict of course, but my view is in the medium term we will see rates climb back above €1.20 again within a month or two. For those that need to buy Euros, much depends on how much time you have to play with. If you need to secure your currency soon, it may be wise to fix a rate sooner rather than later to protect against it dropping any further. 

If you have some time to play with, then you could gamble on rates recovering, however it is always wise to place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to protect you against rates dropping further. If you need to convert Euros back to Pounds, then the current levels are the best they’ve been all year. I do believe we will see the rate in the mid €1.20’s again later this year, so those with a EUR/GBP requirement may wish to lock in a rate sooner rather than later while we have seen a move in your favour. 

Looking for the best foreign exchange rate? Get in touch to discuss 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Pound/Euro - Other than the Industrial Production data I mentioned above, it’s been a very quiet week for data releases so far. Tomorrow (Thursday) should be a little more interesting with a BoE inflation report and House price data for the UK. Strong numbers could push rates above €1.20 again. We also have various inflation figures from the Eurozone tomorrow – if low, then the Euro could weaken off which would also cause rates to rise. Friday see’s UK Trade Balance data, and the latest Employment numbers from the EU. 

Pound/US Dollar – In addition to the UK data mentioned above, the US releases Jobless data, Trade Balance numbers and Retail Sales on Thursday, along with inflationary numbers on Friday. These figures could affect the GBP/USD rate. 

Pound/Australian Dollar – We will see the latest Australian Employment figures overnight. The GBP/AUD is very attractive at the moment, and if the figures are better than expected, we could see a slight dent in the Pound/Aussie rate. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

• Click here to send a free enquiry
• Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

This will be an important week for Sterling...

Monday 16th December 2013
Good afternoon. It's been a quiet start to the week, and since my last post Pound/Euro rates remain in the mid €1.18's, and Pound/Dollar rates around $1.63. This week will be key to whether rates continue dropping as they have in the last week, or resume the trend of the last few months which has seen the Pound rise against other currencies.

Sterling has been one of the currency market's surprises since the summer, having risen consistently over the last 6 months. As I've been explaining over the last few weeks, really impressive economic data has strengthened the Pound, and it's also been helped by the view that interest rates may rise earlier than previously expected. 

This week in my view will be key to the direction Sterling takes over the next month, as we have some key economic data releases including inflation data on Tuesday, and minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee and jobless data on Wednesday, followed by Gross Domestic Product figures on Friday.

So in today's post I'm going to list all the things to look out for which may cause volatility in exchange rates this week. 

Looking for excellent exchange rates?

This weeks economic data releases that may affect exchange rates

Monday 16th December

This morning we saw EU Manufacturing and inflation numbers, which were better than expected. This caused the Euro to strengthen and pulled GBP/EUR rates lower. 

This afternoon we have Speech by the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, which may cause further volatility in Euro rates. 

Tuesday 17th December

Starting in Australian we have the RBA minutes and a speech which may cause changes in GBP/AUD rates. Closer to home, at 09:30am we have a raft of inflation data. This is linked to future interest rate movements so could change Sterling’s value. 

In the Eurozone we also have a raft of inflation numbers in addition to some surveys that look at Economic Sentiment. Over in the States we have more inflation numbers and house price data. 

Wednesday 18th December

This is the key day for the Pound. At 09:30am we have the minutes to the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates and Quantitative Easing. The minutes show what was discussed and often cause exchange rates to fluctuate. We also have the latest unemployment figures. This is key as future interest rate movements have been linked to a drop in Unemployment figures, so if the number is any lower than 7.6% expect the Pound to make gains, and vice versa. 

The rest of today’s data is from the USA – Building Permits, Mortgage Approvals, an Interest Rate decision, and economic projections from the FED. So all in all, a key day for both GBP/EUR and GBP/USD exchange rates. 

Thursday 19th December

UK data today is Retail Sales. This is seen as a good overall barometer of economic activity so it could be another choppy day for Sterling. There are no EU releases of any significance, but over in the USA in the afternoon we do have Jobless Numbers, and Home Sales figures. 

Friday 20th December

Another very important day for the Pound. We have a measure of consumer confidence, but I think the main event will be the latest Gross Domestic Product figures released at 09:30am. GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. This is key as it will indicate whether the UK recovery is sustained, so could push rates higher or lower depending if the number is higher or lower than the expected +0.8%. 

Elsewhere, GDP numbers from the states are released at 13:30pm, and a Consumer Confidence measure for the Eurozone at 3pm. 

Looking for the best exchange rates? Make a free enquiry today

If you are looking for the best exchange rates, and would like to discuss how the above data could affect the exchange rate you're interested in, then send me a free enquiry today. I offer a free consultation service where I can discuss your particular requirements, and explain what could move the rate for or against you. This can help you to decide when to fix an exchange rate. 

In addition to taking advantage of my market knowledge, I can also help you source excellent commercial exchange rates, that are up to 5% better than banks can offer.

If you have a requirement to convert a large volume of funds, the savings can be considerable. Find out how much you could save by clicking below and sending me a free enquiry now. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now.

Sterling surges higher as Mark Carney issues Forward Guidance

Wednesday 7th August 2013 
Good afternoon. Today has been extremely volatile on the currency markets with Sterling surging higher against other currencies. The new Bank of England governor Mark Carney addressed Parliament and delivered his Quarterly inflation report. 

After months of decline for Sterling, the Pound has surged against other currencies today, so in my post this afternoon I will analyse what he said, the impact on the economy, why it caused exchange rates to rise, and what this means for exchange rates going forwards. 

‘Forward Guidance’ from the Bank of England 

The new Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney today addressed parliament, giving his quarterly inflation report, his first since taking over the helm last month. It was already widely expected he would outline his new policy of ‘Forward Guidance’ and indicate that interest rates would remain low for some time. 

How did it affect exchange rates? 

 

As you can clearly see from the chart, when the speech started at 10:30am, Sterling immediately dropped quite significantly, as had been expected. You can see the dip at 10:30am this morning when Pound/Euro rates fell from 1.1530 to 1.1440.

The dip was not to last however, and very quickly the Pound recovered its losses, and kept on going. Again looking at the chart you can see the exchange rate rocketing higher, above where it started the day, and eventually levelled out around 1.1645 against the Euro. 

Click here to get a quote on our commercial exchange rates. 

So why did the rate drop, and then make a huge recovery? 

Firstly the reason it dropped was speculation that he would indeed say interest rates would remain low for some time. Market analysts, myself included, have been saying for some time that if he did indeed say interest rates would remain low, expect Sterling to drop, and initially this is indeed what we saw. 

The reason there was such a massive bounce back was the terms that he outlined as parameters for when rates would start to rise. He pledged to keep them on hold until the official unemployment rate fell below 7%. This is his ‘forward guidance’. Under its central forecast, though, the Bank does not expect unemployment to fall to 7pc until September 2016. So in effect, he’s saying interest rates will remain low for another 3 years. 

So you would have expected the Pound to fall further on this news, however Economists said traders were expecting a much tougher target than 7 % unemployment, hence the reason for today’s robust performance for Sterling. The Institute of Economic Affairs said Mr. Carney's forward guidance was "the most dangerous development in UK monetary policy since the late 1980s". So experts are mixed on the effect it will have. 

So what does this mean for the economy? 

If rates do remain on hold until 2016, they will have been at their record low for nearly 8 years. The last time this happened was the 12 years that spanned the Second World War and the period of austerity that followed. 


The economy does seem to be recovering however. Recently we’ve seen good Retail Sales, good growth figures, strong manufacturing and industrial production, good growth forecasts and decent house price increases. And although welcoming the recovery, Mr. Carney stressed that it “remains weak by historical standards”. 

“There is understandable relief that the UK has begun growing again. But there should be little satisfaction. Much is at stake as we seek to secure the recovery and return inflation to target,” he said. 

The Bank expects inflation to remain at 2.9pc this year, fall to 2.4pc by the end of 2014 and hit 2pc in late 2015. The Bank stressed that it will keep the stock of quantitative easing steady at £375bn until the end of 2016 as well, and could increase it if the economy slipped backwards. 

You can read a detailed report here on the BBC website of what he said and the impact on the economy.

What does this mean for exchange rates? 

Right now this means good buying opportunities for anyone that is buying a foreign currency with Sterling. The gains are a surprise to the market, and so if you need to buy currency, consider taking advantage of the gains we have seen. We can fix your exchange rate for up to 2 years into the future, and you only lodge 10% of what you want to convert now. This protects you from the rate falling. 

Moving forwards much will depend on economic figures. If they start to disappoint, then we could still see further QE from the BoE which would cause the Pound to fall back away. 

Need Euros at the best exchange rate? Send me a free enquiry. 

For those selling converting currency back in to Sterling, rates are now moving against you. A week ago the Euro to Pound rate was close to a 2 year high, with Forward guidance in place and the economy recovering, further good figures could mean the rate gets worse for you. 

Selling property abroad and want the best Euro to Pound rate? Make a free enquiry now and find out about your options.

How to get the Best Exchange Rates

The first step is to send me a free enquiry by clicking here. I can discuss your requirements in detail, run over the options you have available, and help you decide on the optimal time to convert your funds. This means you can make an informed choice on what is best for you.

When you decide to fix a rate, the levels I can achieve are incredibly good commercial rates, that are up to 5% better than you can achieve at banks and other financial institutions. 

Send me a free enquiry now and find out how good our exchange rates are.