Monday 13th January 2013 The Pound has fallen further today against other currencies and currently sits at €1.20 vs the Euro. This is in addition to the falls in the rate we saw on Friday, due to poor manufacturing figures, as I outlined in my last post.So what has caused the drop today? To be honest it’s been quite hard to pin a reason on the decline today, as there have been no significant data releases that would have caused the volatility. After some further research, it appears that the fall in the value of the Pound today was due to a measure of whether U.K. economic data has been beating analysts’ expectations, and this has damped investor demand for the currency, and as a result it has weakened and exchange rates have fallen. You can read more about this on the Bloomberg site here. I can find no other explanation for the drop in rates. This has meant the Pound has dropped to the lowest level in a month against the Euro down to €1.20, and down to $1.6380 vs the US Dollar. We could see rates rise again, and much will depend on how economic data releases this week fit in with expectations. So as usual for a Monday, below I will list the remaining data releases that are due this week, and give my thought on how they could affect exchange rates. Remember that if you have a currency requirement, you can contact me for a free quote by clicking here. Even if you currently use a broker, even a small difference in the rate can represent a big saving. It doesn’t cost anything to send me an enquiry, so do so now by clicking here. What could affect exchange rates in the coming week? Monday 13th January 2014 As explained above, today was very light with no significant data releases, however this hasn’t stopped Sterling falling by around 0.6%. Tuesday 14th January 2014 A little bit more to digest today – at 09:30am we will see the latest inflation numbers. These are important as they are linked to interest rates, and it’s speculation of higher rates that has been the main cause of Sterling’s strength recently. The 2 annual figures are expected at 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. Higher and the Pound will gain, lower and the Pound will fall. Elsewhere, we have EU Industrial Production numbers, but I don’t think they will have much impact. WE will also see UK Retail Sales today. They are a good barometer of overall economic activity, and so if the numbers disappoint, we could see GBP/USD rates rise. Wednesday 15th January 2014 Very quiet again today with nothing on the calender that should affect GBP/EUR rates. GBP/USD could be affected however by US Mortgage numbers and a FED report on the current economic situation in the United States. Thursday 16th January 2014 A very busy day for EU and US Data today. Starting in Europe, we have various measures of inflation, and these will be key to whether the ECB cuts rates any further. Lower than expected numbers would increase the chance of rates being cut, and would cause GBP/EUR to rise further. Over in the states, we also have a raft of inflation numbers, along with Jobless Claims and a speech by the outgoing FED chairman. There is nothing of note being released from the UK today. Friday 17th January 2014 We end the week with UK Retail Sales, and Housing data from the US. - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
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Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now and I can get in touch to discuss any of the above with you to help you decide what to do. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Friday 10th January 2013 Well, as is often the case in the currency markets, spikes are short lived and the gains we saw yesterday against the Euro have been eroded. In today’s post I’m going to have a look at what has happened this week with Pound/Euro rates, Pound/US Dollar rates, and Pound/Australian Dollar rates. I'll also take a look at where the rates have been historically, and what may happen during 2014.If you find my blog useful, then feel free to get in touch with me by clicking here. I can offer you a free consultation on what’s happening with exchange rates to help you make an informed choice on when to fix your rate. In addition to taking advantage of my market knowledge, I can give you a quote for your exchange that could be up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker. First things first, let’s see what’s been happening with exchange rates this week. Pound/Euro 
The rate is around the best it’s been in 12 months. The ECB meeting yesterday that I touched on in yesterday’s post, caused rates to hit €1.2150. As I explained in my brief post yesterday, the fact that the ECB hinted at lower interest rates significantly weakened the Euro, and this made it cheaper to buy, pushing rates to the mid €1.21’s. It was not to last however. This morning we saw some disappointing industrial and manufacturing production figures that were well below forecast. The result was a weakening of the Pound/Euro rate back to where we started the week! During the last week though, the fluctuations mean converting £150k netted you a Euro amount differing by up to €2500.00, illustrating that getting your timing right can make a huge difference. Pound/US Dollar 
Exchange rates to buy US Dollars are close to a 4 year high. The poor UK data this morning, as I outlined in the Euro section above, pulled rates from 1.65 down to 1.64. However this afternoon we had some extremely low jobs numbers from the states. Analysts thought nearly 200,000 new jobs would be created, but in fact it was only 74,000. As the number was way lower than expected, the Dollar weakened and pushed the GBP/USD rate back up to 1.65 again. Pound/Australian Dollar 
Exchange rates to buy Australian Dollars are currently the best they have been in over 4 years. Remarkably, this time last year the GBP/AUD rate was the worst it has been in decades. This was because the AUD was very strong, Australia avoided recession and China import huge amounts of raw materials from Australia and so this gave the currency support and making it expensive. That all changed 6 months ago and the rate is now the best in over 4 years! This is in part due to the UK recovering, so the Pound is strong. I think it's more to do with China though - their growth has slowed massively, so less demand for raw goods from Australia, this in turn has significantly weakened the Aussie and has made it very cheap to buy indeed. I think it's going to continue to be china that drives the rate - if their economy starts growing at a ridiculous pace again, then we'll see the rate drop back away. To put it in perspective, converting £150k to AUD is netting you nearly $60,000 more than beginning of last year, which is quite amazing really when you think about the fact rates were at the lowest in 30 years 6 months ago. Summary So there we go, and that’s my view on some of the major currency pairs. If you are looking for the best exchange rates, want to discuss which way the market may go, or simply want to get a quote on the exchange rate I can offer you, then click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry. I’ll be back on Monday with a breakdown of how next week’s economic figures might affect exchange rates. Click here to send me a free enquiry nowAlastair Archbold
Thursday 9th January 2014 Good afternoon. A quick update on exchange rates, as we have seen Pound/Euro surge to new highs, and currently the rate is €1.2150. The reason for the gains were as I outlined in my post yesterday. As I predicted, there were no surprises from the central bank decisions, however in the ECB Press conference, I mentioned that if the President Mario Draghi hinted at lower interest rates in the future for the EU, it would weaken the Euro and push rates up. This is exactly what has happened. He said rates would "remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The markets reacted immediately, and as you can see from the chart below, the GBP/EUR rate shot up from 1.2085 to 1.2150. This is now a very attractive time to need to fix a rate buying Euros. You can read more about what happened in the ECB press conference here on the BBC website. If you would like to discuss how I can help you achieve excellent commercial exchange rates, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
Wednesday 8th January 2014 We have seen the Pound gain in strength today, and Sterling/Euro exchange rates have risen to €1.21. In today’s post I’m going to give my view on why I think this has happened, and also have a look at what could happen tomorrow (Thursday) which I think is going to be key for what happens to exchange rates in the short term. It’s a very important day for currencies as we have some key data from 3 of the world’s major central banks in the next 24 hours. But first, let’s look at today’s gains….Pound/Euro rates rise to €1.21 As you can see from the chart, Pound/Euro rates have gained nicely today, hitting €1.21 before levelling off. So what has caused the jump in rates? One factor could be the unemployment numbers from the Eurozone that were released earlier. It shows unemployment is now at 12.1%, which is much higher than we have in the UK. As such this may have weakened the Euro causing rates to rise. But to be honest, the number was pretty much as expected, and EU Retail Sales were actually better than forecast, so I don’t think that’s the reason for the movement today. I think the reason for the rise is more market expectation on what will happen in the next 24 hours, when we have some key releases from 3 of the worlds major Central Banks – the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. So, let’s have detailed look at what effect any action by these central banks could have on exchange rates. *** Key Central Bank decisions in the next 24 hours *** European Central Bank (ECB) 
Tomorrow at 12:45pm the ECB will announce their latest decision on interest rates. I think it is very unlikely that they will change the rate, but at 13:30pm the ECB President Mario Draghi will give a press conference. This is very important, as if he hints that rates may be cut in the coming months, then the Euro is likely to weaken. I think there is a good chance rates may go down in the EU, as inflation is falling in the EU. I also think that could be the reason that the Pound/Euro rate has gone up today, as markets start to factor in the likelihood of this happening. So listen carefully tomorrow lunchtime to his comments, and see the effect it has on rates. If he doesn’t hint at rate cuts, then expect GBP/EUR rates to drop back away. Bank of England (BoE) 
Like the ECB, the BoE also announce their latest decision on interest rates. Also like the ECB, I don’t expect any changes or surprises. Sometimes the governor, Mark Carney, makes comments after the decision, and usually he is quite positive about the Pound. I don’t think the BoE decision will cause many waves, and all eyes will be on the ECB US Federal Reserve 
This evening, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, when the central bank announced its decision to begin trimming its Quantitative Easing programme will be released. Much like with the ECB, it’s comments that are sometimes made that will move the markets, and if the minutes are very positive, expect Pound/Dollar rates to drop back away. Getting the best exchange rates I guess you will be reading this as you are keen to know which way exchange rates may go, and want to make sure you get the best rate possible, at the best time; while markets cannot be predicted, hopefully my blog is proving useful for you in this respect.Feel free to send me a free enquiry by clicking below, and I can get in touch to discuss your particular requirements, and answer any questions you may have on exchange rates. I can also help you achieve exchange rates that are up to 5% better than banks can offer, and so the savings can be considerable. So get in touch today, it costs nothing, and you may be very surprised how much you can save. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 6th January 2014 Good afternoon everybody and welcome to a new year. I am back in action today with regular updates on exchange rates. For new readers, this blog is updated several times per week with an outline of what is happening with exchange rates. This should prove useful for anyone following the currency markets that needs to buy or sell foreign currency, perhaps when buying or selling abroad or for example business’s that import or export to other countries. In addition to my blog providing currency updates and foreign exchange forecasts, I can also help you source exchange rates up to 5% better than you can achieve at banks and other financial institutions through the company I work for. If you are interested in getting a quote or would like to find out more, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. So what has been happening with exchange rates so far in 2014? 
It’s been a relatively muted start to the year. Pound/Euro rates remain a little above €1.20 which is around the highest in a year, and Pound/Dollar rates remain just above $1.64 which is not far off the highest in several years. In my last post I outlined what had been happening last year that had caused rates to rise to the current highs. So far this year, the Pounds rise seems to have ended. On the first working day of the year we saw some disappointing Manufacturing figures that pulled Sterling lower, but Construction figures impressed and this brought things back to where they were. Today has been relatively quiet on the markets, with a mix of data from Germany that weakened the Euro a little, but not by much. So today I will list the remaining data releases this week that I think will affect exchange rates. Remember if you would like to get a free quote or discuss your requirement with me for free, you can send me a free enquiry by clicking here. This week’s data that could affect exchange rates. Tuesday 7th January 2014 There aren’t any releases from the UK today, so those looking at Pound/Euro rates will be focusing on data from Europe. We have German Unemployment and Retail Sales, along with inflation data for the Eurozone as a whole. Better than expected figures would strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower. Elsewhere US Trade Balance figures could affect Pound/Dollar rates. Wednesday 8th January 2014 Again nothing of note from the UK. EU data today is Retail Sales and Unemployment data, and if the numbers differ from forecast, expect volatility in the Pound/Euro rate. In the USA we have Mortgage Approvals, Employment data, and minutes from the recent FED meeting where QE tapering was announced. Thursday 9th January 2014 We finally get going with some news from the UK: firstly we have Trade Balance numbers which are very important for the economy, and so could affect the value of the Pound. At lunchtime we have the latest decision on QE and interest rates; I don’t expect any change, but any comments that accompany the announcement could have an effect on exchange rates. In the Eurozone we also have an interest rate decision, and I expect rates to stay on hold at 0.25%. Again as with the UK, in the press conference after the decision, any hint at a future rate cut could weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates higher. We also see Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, and Industrial confidence measures. We end the day with Jobless numbers from the United States. Friday 10th January 2014 The only UK data of note today is Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers released at 09.30am. We also have a GDP estimate from the National Institute for Economic and Social research. The most recent estimate was 0.8% - anything above this will cause the Pound to rise, and vice versa. Today we also see US Non-Farm payrolls – the actual figure is usually quite different to the forecast, as it’s so hard to predict, and therefore causes swings in the GBP/USD rate. - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
- Unsure when to go ahead and fix a rate?
- Keen to get a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker?
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now and I can get in touch to discuss any of the above with you to help you decide what to do. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 30th December 2013 Welcome back, and I hope everyone had a lovely Christmas! Pound/Euro rates have fallen a little today, from €1.20 down to €1.1940 at the time of writing. For something a little different, in today’s post I am going to take a retrospective look at what has happened with key currency pairs throughout 2013, including Pound/Euro. I will explain what has happened with exchange rates and what caused them to move.I will also take a view on what the exchange rate forecast is for 2014, so anyone with a currency requirement in the next 12 months should find this useful. Remember I don't just write about the markets - I am a senior currency broker for one of the UK's leading currency brokerages, and can help you achieve exchange rates up to 5% better than banks will offer you, potentially saving you thousands of Pounds. I have 8 years experience in the industry, so if you need to the best exchange rates, take advantage of my knowledge by getting in touch for a free chat about exchange rates. So read on to see what the future holds for your exchange rate, and to find out more about the services I offer, send me a free enquiry by clicking here. Pound/Euro in 2013, and the forecast for 2014It has been a year of mixed fortunes for Sterling/Euro rates, but as 2013 comes to a close rates remain close to the best they have been all year. 
We started the year very strongly with rates above €1.20. As the year progressed however, rates fell steadily for the first part of the year, dropping as low as 1.15. This was due to the UK’s ongoing Quantitative Easing programme, and concerns over how well the economy was growing. 
In the summer the Pounds’ fortunes were reversed, and the UK economic recovery really took hold, and rates started to rise again. Part of the gains were due to the improving economy picture in the UK, including better growth figures and falling unemployment.
The other factor in the Pounds gains was when Mark Carney took over the helm of the Bank of England. When he did so, his ‘Forward Guidance’ approach and general positivity about UK growth gave investors’ confidence. As unemployment continues to fall, it’s likely that interest rates may start to rise in the UK, and that has also given the Pound strength helping rates rise.
So where will Pound/Euro go in 2014? Well if things continue to improve and unemployment keeps dropping, I think the Pound could break above €1.20 and get to the mid €1.25’s in 2014. This isn’t a given however, as if the exchange rate gets too high, we may well see the Bank of England move to devalue Sterling. They would do this as if the rate gets too high, it would make exports from the UK less attractive, so for this reason we might not see rates get much above €1.20.
If you need to buy or sell Euros in 2014, then contact me for a free consultation on your options, to make sure you make the most of your currency transaction.
Pound/US Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
It’s a similar story driven by the UK economy. Rates fell for the first part of the year, and then recovered and currently sit near the best in 2 years. Part of this is due to the same reasons I have outlined above with regards to the UK economy.
The other factor is that the US is now starting to wind up their Quantitative Easing programme. This has given investors more confidence in the Global economy, and so the US ‘safe haven’ Dollar has started to weaken, making it cheaper to buy.
In 2014 this currency pair is hard to forecast due to its safe haven status. On the one hand, a recovering UK economy would mean rates rising. However as the US economy is also starting to improve, this could give strength to the Dollar and bring rates back down into the $1.50’s, which many forecasts I read are now suggesting.
So if you have Dollar requirements, buying or selling, in 2014, it’s important you know all your options and have a clear understanding of what may move the rate. Click here to get in touch with me to discuss your requirements and make sure you’re well placed to get the best possible rate.
Pound/Australian Dollar in 2013, and the forecast for 2014
This currency pair earlier in the year was at its lowest in decades, but in recent months has risen again and is currently sitting at its highest in nearly 4 years! So what has been going on?
Well the reason it was so low is due to China. Australia has a huge mining industry, and China buy lots of raw materials from Australia. This huge demand from China had caused the Aussie Dollar to become incredibly strong, and therefore expensive to buy – this is why rates were very low earlier in the year.
However China’s economy is now growing at a much slower rate and this means less demand for Australian raw materials. As such, the AUD has weakened quite a bit, and helped along by the strengthening pound we now see the best rates for many years. The wildfires in the Country also harmed its agricultural industry, further weakening the currency. If you have an AUD requirement, click here to find out what I can offer.
Get in touch today to get the best exchange rates. 
I can trade most major international currencies, and the rates I can offer you can be up to 5% better than banks can offer. The savings can be considerable, so if you will have a requirement to buy or sell currency in 2014, get in touch with me to see how I can assist you.
In addition to better rates, I can talk over what is moving the exchange rate, and what factors may influence it in 2014. In this way you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and of course by using my services, the rate you get when you decide to move ahead is much better than your bank will offer.
In 2013 I have helped hundreds of clients save tens of thousands of Pounds by getting better rates of exchange. It costs nothing to make an enquiry and get a quote to compare with your bank, so click below to find out more about my service.Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
I hope regular and new readers alike have found my posts useful, and I look forward to continuing providing an insight into exchange rates throughout 2014. I would also like to everyone a very happy and prosperous New Year.
Alastair Archbold
Friday 20th December 2014 This will be my last post for a week, and I’ll be back in action on Monday the 30th of December. With regards to exchange rates, Sterling remains strong after figures showed the UK economy is growing faster than previously estimated. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product was up 0.8%; however it revised its growth figures for earlier quarters. This means the estimated annual growth rate has now risen from 1.5% to 1.9%, a revision that has surprised economists. Sterling currently sits at €1.1955 vs the Euro and $1.6377 vs the US Dollar. In other UK economic news, ONS data showed that Britain's current account deficit - the difference between the money received from exports and imports - widened sharply in the third quarter to £20.7bn, up from £6.2bn in the second quarter. This countered any gains the growth figures would have caused, and so there has not been much volatility in exchange rates. So that’s it from me for a while. I hope everybody has a lovely Christmas, and I will be back with more currency news on exchange rates on the 30th December. Remember if you are looking for the best exchange rates, I can help you source levels up to 5% better than banks can offer. You can click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry and one of my colleagues can get in touch to discuss your requirement and explain the service we offer. Once again a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Alastair Archbold
