Huge exchange rate volatility GBPEUR, GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

Monday 24th August 2015 
It’s incredibly volatile on the currency markets today. Just look at what has happened with Sterling/Euro rates, falling from 1.38 into 1.34's:
  

 
When I opened the trading floor this morning at 8am, GBP/EUR was at 1.38 where it ended on Friday. We have seen the rate drop throughout the day, and at 2.15pm it plummeted to as low as 1.3455 before recovering back into the €1.35’s. This is a huge drop and other currency pairs are seeing extreme volatility, due to global stock rout and economic uncertainty. 

The FTSE 100 has lost 10%, as investors dumped riskier assets and flocked to currencies seen as safe havens on fears about a slowdown in the Chinese and global economies. The Euro has been a huge benefactor, as usual safe havens like Sterling and the US Dollar are suffering. This is because the global slowdown means interest rates are no longer likely to go up in the UK or US any time soon. 

As the Euro gains significant strength, commodity based currencies like the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar continue to weaken as oil prices and other commodities continue to fall in value. 

Click here to view live charts for all currency pairs.

Sterling/Dollar has gone from $1.56 to $1.58 just today, as the Dollar weakens due to the global turmoil. Just look at some of the movements we've seen during trading today:

GBP/USD rises to $1.58:

GBP/NZD has risen by 10 cents in the last half an hour:

 

GBP/AUD rises from $2.16 to $2.22:

 

A panicked and interesting day on the currency markets. 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, then get in touch to find out more about the currency services I offer. From exchange rates up to 5% better than the bank, to tools such as 'Stop Loss' and 'Limit' orders that can protect you against volatility like we've witnessed today, you could save thousands by simply getting in touch for a quote and a chat about how my service works. 

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Pound/Euro exchange rates May/June 2015

Tuesday 19th May 2015
Sterling/Euro rates continue to remain pretty volatile, and in the last 24 hours we have seen the pair rise from €1.3730 to nearly €1.40, which was due to weakness in the Euro. The gains didn’t last long however, and UK inflation figures this morning have weakened the Pound and knocked the rate down a cent, to around €1.3850 as the chart below shows. 

In today’s report I’ll explain what has caused the movements for Pound/Euro rates, and look at where the GBP/EUR exchange rate may move in May & June 2015. 

Euro weakness causes GBP/EUR to rise to nearly €1.40 

Greece has another large debt repayment to make on the 5th of June. Whether they will make it or not is having a big impact on the value of the Euro. The IMF think they don’t have much chance of meeting the payment, and their acknowledgement of this yesterday caused the Euro to weaken, pushing GBP/EUR rates up from 1.3750 to 1.3850. 

The weakness in the Euro continued this morning when European Central Bank officials said the bank could take further action, and pump even more money into the economy than they are doing already, in order to quash euro zone bond yields and boost inflation. If they increase their QE program and the amount of Euros their pumping in, then it will weaken the Euro. More of anything means it’s worth less, and that was the reason for this morning’s GBP/EUR push up to almost €1.40. 

UK inflation figures pull rates back down 

The rates only got to this level for 20 minutes or so, and then the UK released its latest inflation numbers. This showed that inflation turned negative for the first time in over 50 years. So why did this cause the Pound to drop? It’s because of interest rates. With inflation negative, there is no chance of a rate hike anytime soon. Because rates are going to stay low for a long time to come, there is little incentive for investors to buy the Pound, so that’s why the rate dropped back away. 

Where next for Sterling/Euro rates 

You can see from the chart that there is a steady line of support and resistance at around the €1.3850 market where it keeps settling back down. I think that whether the GBP/EUR rate goes up or down depends on what Greece is expected to do. Quite simply, if they don’t make their next payment or it looks like they won’t, the Euro could weaken further and push rates back towards €1.40. This is a key technical level so unless anything else unexpected happens I don’t think it will break through this. 

Alternatively the Greeks could just be delaying in order to re-negotiate the deal they are getting. If payments are made or an agreement is put in place, then the Euro could gain strength, pulling rates back down again as the single currency becomes more expensive to buy. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

Rates are very volatile at the moment, moving very quickly. In order to get the best possible rates you need to have a good currency broker who can monitor the market for you, explain the options you can consider on when to fix a rate, and get you a much better rate than banks will offer. The worst thing you can do is just watch the rate and hope itwill move your way, or use the bank to convert your funds. 

Why not give me a try? The rates and service I provide are exceptional, and with over 10 years’ experience helping personal and business customers with their currency requirements, it may be prudent to see if I can do the same for you. Send me a free no obligation enquiry today by clicking below. 

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Pound soars back to nearly €1.40 after Conservative Majority

As I said in my last post just over a week ago, the blog was going to be quiet while I took a short holiday. Much has happened since I’ve been away! As most readers will already know, the Pound has surged higher against the Euro as Sterling posted its largest gains against the Euro in years. As exit polls showed that the Conservatives would take an overall majority, GBP/EUR rose 4 cents, and touched the €1.40 level several times as the chart below shows: 

Why did the Pound gain so much on a conservative win? 

The Pound had fallen sharply before the election, due to political uncertainty for investors who had expected a hung parliament. Most polls had again and again shown the two main parties neck and neck, with neither expected to secure a parliamentary majority. The overall majority for the conservatives while not popular with everyone, is certainly very good news for the UK economy. As such, investors rallied to buy the Pound, helping to push it up against other currencies. 

Will the Pound/Euro rate get back to €1.40? 

I personally don’t think so. You can see the resistance GBP/EUR has at €1.40 in the above chart, and the currency pair seems unable to break through this. Indeed this week we’ve seen the rate drop back to the €1.38 level. I think the Pound/Euro rate could now fall again, and I’ll explain the reasons why… 

• The Conservatives now have a majority, they can implement much tighter monetary policy than they have done under the Con/Lib Dem coalition. This means that the Bank of England may now keep monetary policy easy and keep interest rates low, which would weaken the Pound, which could take some of the wind out of sterling's sails. 
• Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on membership of the European Union within two years, and the uncertainty this will generate will also keep investors wary and limit any further gains.
• The Spotlight is now back on the EU and Greece, and actually recent figures suggest the European Central Banks stimulus program is having the desired effect, and the economy in Europe seems to be recovering. 
• Greece (which incidentally is where I have just been on holiday!) seems to be playing ball and, for the moment, is meeting its debt repayments. The Euro is weak at the moment due to Greece, and if this gets resolved, it could regain strength and become more expensive to buy. 

What should you do if you need to buy Euros this year?

I can’t predict what the rate will do, nobody can. What you can do however is speak to an expert currency broker like me to ensure you have an understanding of the options available. For example if you are worried about the rate falling, you can lock in the rate now for up to 2 years with a Forward contract. If you want to gamble on rates going higher, then you can use a ‘Stop Loss’ order to fix a rate should we see it plummet below a particular level, so you’re not exposed. Or, you could hedge your bets and fix a rate on half your requirement now, and see what happens later in the year with the remaining funds you need. 

Do you need to achieve the best possible exchange rates? 

The above is just an example of how I can help you if you’re looking to buy or sell currency. I can source you rates of exchange that are very close to the mid-market level you see published online and if you are converting a large sum, the savings could be thousands of Pounds. If you would like a quote on the exchange rate I can provide, or would like to discuss your options in more detail regarding when to fix a rate, then click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

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Pound/Euro starts to plummets as election uncertainty takes hold

Thursday 2nd April 2015
Since my post a few days ago, we have seen the general downward trend in Sterling/Euro rates resume, falling from €1.38+ to €1.36 in the last couple of days. As the chart below shows, in the last 3 weeks alone the Pound has lost nearly 5% against the Euro: 

Economic data from the UK has actually been quite good! Growth has been revised up, manufacturing has picked up, and the UK is now the fastest growing major western economy. Despite this, it looks like the Pound is going to drop further against the Euro. 

The main reason as I’ve touched on a few times in the last few weeks is the general election. The latest polls suggest a hung parliament and it was this that was the catalyst for the drop earlier in the week. If we cast our minds back to last year’s Scottish referendum, the uncertainty that created pulled Sterling significantly lower against other currencies. The election is likely to have the same effect, and it could potentially be a much greater one. Tonight will also be interesting with the televised debate for 7 leaders, and could also cause the pound to come under pressure. 

Nearly every forecast I’m reading suggests a drop. As an overall majority is highly unlikely, this uncertainty is likely to continue for at least several weeks after the election, which means a very volatile couple of months for the Pound. 

When is the best time to buy Euros? 

If you have Euros to buy in the next 6 months, then you’re still doing very well. Yes the rate has dropped from the recent 8 year high, but the rate is still very good indeed and around 10 cents higher than the start of the year. 

If you need to buy Euros then you can lock in the current rate for up to 2 years by lodging 10% of the Sterling you want to convert. You are then protected against further declines in the rate and know exactly where you are. 

To discuss this or any other Euro purchase we can help you with, click here to make an enquiry. 

When should you sell Euros back to Pounds? 

If you need to convert funds back to Pounds, perhaps from a property sale overseas, then there is every chance the rate could get better for you as the Pound gets weaker. You should just hope this is the case though. 

You can utilise what’s called a Stop Loss order, which means if the market moves against you your rate is fixed at a pre-agreed level, while still allowing you to take advantage of any gains in the market.  

To discuss this or get a quote for your exchange, click here. 

Getting the best Exchange rates 

I work for one of the UK’s leading Foreign Exchange Brokerages; one of the few to be granted an e-money licence from the FCA, which gives you significantly more protection than a firm that is simply authorised by them. Clients that have contacted me directly from this blog over the last 6 years have now converted over £350m Sterling, and saved around 2 to 3% compared to their bank/existing broker. 

I can trade over 35 currency pairs on a bank to bank basis for both private and business clients. We also have segregated client accounts, so you can trade with us safe in the knowledge your funds are very safe and secure. 

If you need the best rates, are converting over £5k and needs funds wired to a bank account, then it is certainly worth getting in touch to see what rate I can offer you. It costs nothing to get in touch for a quote and you will likely be pleasantly surprised how much I can save you by getting you a better rate. I can also talk over various options and strategies you can consider so you can take control over your requirement. Don’t simply sit back and hope an exchange rate will get to a particular level; hope is not a reliable economic tool. Take advantage of my 15 years of experience in Financial Services today. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

We will be closed over the Bank Holiday weekend, and will be back in action on Tuesday. Enjoy the break!

Pound/Euro rates drop to €1.39

Tuesday 17th March 2015
The spike of last week to €1.4255 appears to have been short lived, with the Pound falling during trading on both Monday and Tuesday, testing the €1.40 level before breaking below it. The drop continued today and at the time of writing the rate is a little above €1.39: 

 

Why has the rate fallen? 

It’s to do with events in Europe, the USA and the UK. Over in the EU the recent QE programme has been well accepted, and this shows confidence that the Eurozone will sort out their issues and return to growth. This view was supported with economic data released this morning, showing better than expected numbers for consumer sentiment, inflation, and employment. The better numbers have given the Euro back some strength, dragging down the GBP/EUR rate. 

Over in the USA, there are nerves ahead the FED’s meeting tomorrow, halting the Dollar buying and in turn Euro selling. The Dollar has weakened a little after weaker than forecast manufacturing, industrial output and housing data. 

Here in the UK, its Budget day tomorrow, and the Conservatives last chance to convince voters they are the only choice to protect the UK economy. Tomorrow is going to be a very important one for the currency markets, so let’s take a closer look at what’s on the agenda. 

Wednesday a very important day for exchange rates 

Tomorrow we will see much that could affect exchange rates. In the UK at 09:30am we have the latest Bank of England announcement, various unemployment numbers. Both of these could affect the Pound significantly better than expected figures could strengthen the Pound and vice versa. 

Later on we have the UK Budget Statement which is of more importance than usual, given there is a UK general election in less than 2 months. There could well be some surprises in this budget to woo voters ahead of the election, and given the economy is going to be the main weapon in the Conservatives arsenal, there is every chance we could see a significant effect on exchange rates for Sterling. 

Over in the United States at 6pm we have the Federal Reserve’s monthly statement. The markets are nervous ahead of this as analysts try to determine when the FED will raise interest rates. This is very important for exchange rates, as flows in and out of the Dollar can have knock on effects for the Pound, the Euro, and other major currencies. 

Do you want to get the best exchange rates? 

Get in touch with me for a free no obligation consultation. I can provide you a rate, explain the various options you can consider to help you get the best rate, and explain how the above data releases could affect the currency rate you are interested in. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today

Pound/Australian Dollar drops as RBA leaves rates on hold

Tuesday 3rd March 2015
At 3:30am this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates. The consensus was that they would cut rates to 2.00%, and that had already been priced into the market as it was widely expected. However, the RBA decided to leave rates on hold at 2.25%. 

Australian Inflation had fallen to a 6 year low, and the lack of Chinese demand had meant everyone thought a rate cut was on the cards in order to boost their cooling economy. It looks however like they are hoping the rate cut in China will boost demand. 

What does this mean for the GBP/AUD exchange rate? 

It caused the Australian Dollar to gain strength, and as you can see from the chart below the GBP/AUD rate fell from $1.98 to the low $1.96’s. You can see the immediate drop the moment the decision was announced: 

What's happening with Sterling/Euro rates?

The Sterling to Euro exchange rate over the last week has continued to strengthen, touching €1.38 over the weekend before dropping back into the €1.37’s. As the European Central Bank starts it’s Quantitative Easing programme in earnest, this and the ongoing saga in Greece continues to drive this currency pair. 

The negotiations over Greece’s debt seem to be making slow progress, and I think as and when a full agreement is put in place, this could start to give the Euro back some strength. We also have the election coming up in a few months which could also cause uncertainty and weakness for Sterling. 

For the moment however, 7 year highs are available for those that need to buy Euros. 

Get a quote and see how much you could save 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

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Pound/Euro hits fresh 7 year highs after strong jobs data

Wednesday 18th February 2015 
Sterling has risen strongly this morning to fresh 7 year highs against the Euro. As you can see from the chart below, GBP/EUR rose from 1.3450 to 1.3560: 

Robust UK Employment figures boost Sterling 

The reason for the rise was 2 fold. Firstly we saw some very robust UK employment figures that were much better than forecast. Average earnings were higher than expected, and the number of people out of work in the UK fell by 97,000 to 1.86 million in the three months to December. Because the figures beat expectations, it boosted Sterling and caused the rate to rise.

Bank of England unanimous to keep rates at 0.5% 

Today the BoE minutes showed that all 9 members voted to hold rates at their currency level of 0.5. However although all nine members of the MPC voted to keep interest rates on hold, two members said the decision was "finely balanced", adding: "Given the outlook for inflation beyond the short term, there could well be a case for an increase in Bank Rate later in the year." This also pushed the Pound higher, and combined with the jobs data, Sterling has risen against most other major currencies this morning including the Euro. 

Will the Pound stay above €1.35 or drop back again? 

In recent weeks, we have seen GBP/EUR reach these levels several times, however each and every time it has always slipped back below this level within a day or two. The same could happen again, or this could be the time the gains are sustained and the rates stay above this level. It’s impossible to know what will happen. 

If you need to buy Euros however, you don’t want to lose out on the best rates since 2008. You could consider placing a ‘Stop Loss’ order which means if the rate does drop back, your currency is secured at a pre-agreed level. If the rate keeps rising however, you can still take advantage of any gains. 

Do you have a currency transfer to make?

If you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates, the rates I offer are also up to 5% better than available at banks and other financial institutions. If you need to exchange currency in the coming months, click here to send me a free enquiry and obtain a quote to see how much you could save.

Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast

Tuesday 17th February 2015 
In today’s report I’ll take a look at the Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast, and also what data releases the rest of the week has in store and how they could affect exchange rates. Today the Pound has fallen against other currencies due to the lowest inflation figures on record.

Sterling/Euro 

The Pound/Euro rate has been repeating its recent trend of rising above the €1.35 mark, only to drop back away within days. This has happened again this morning, with the rate falling from €1.3550 to €1.3450 over the course of this morning. What’s been going on? 

Continued uncertainty over what is happening in Greece has continued to weaken the Euro, and that’s what keeps pushing the rate higher However with very low UK inflation numbers this morning, the Pound has fallen back away which is why GBP/EUR exchange rates have dropped. To be honest I think sooner or later, the Greeks will reach an agreement with the EU regarding its debts, and when this uncertainty is removed, the Euro could gain back some of its losses and bring GBP/EUR even lower. I personally don’t expect rates to stay at the €1.35 level for long. 

Supporting that view was this morning’s UK inflation figures. The rate of UK Consumer Prices Index inflation fell to 0.3% in January, its lowest level since records began in 1989. 

On the one hand, this does provide a respite for consumers in the UK and increase spending power so it’s good news. On the other hand however, it means interest rates in the UK aren’t going anywhere, and so the Pound has weakened off. 

(Low interest rates usually weaken a currency and it’s this fact that’s keeping the Pound in check.)

If you need the best GBP/EUR rates, or indeed need to convert any international currency, click here to make a free enquiry on the commercial exchange rates I can offer you.

 

What else could move exchange rates this week? 

Tuesday 17th February 2015  

This morning we had the latest inflation figures, and they were slightly worse than expected. This means it’s getting less and less likely that interest rates will be going up any time soon in the UK, and the Pound has fallen today by over a cent against the Euro. 

Wednesday 18th February 2015 

Today is an important one for Sterling, as at 09:30am we will see the latest unemployment figures, and the Bank of minutes. I expect the unemployment number to remain at 2.6%, but if it’s higher than this expect the Pound to fall and vice versa. The BoE minutes will be important as it will show if any of the Banks Monetary Policy committee voted to hike interest rates at their last meeting. I would expect this to show all members voting to keep rates on hold in light of the recent inflation numbers. 

Thursday 19th February 2015 

Nothing of note from the UK today, however the Eurozone has a monetary policy meeting and a consumer confidence release, that could affect GBP/EUR rates. The USA also has some important jobs and manufacturing numbers today, so we could also see changes in the Pound/Dollar rate. 

Friday 20th February 2015 

Today is another important one for Sterling as we have the latest UK Retail Sales numbers. I expect these to be around the 5.9% mark, and any deviation from this figure could cause the Pound to move against other currencies. Retail Sales figures are important as they are a good overall barometer of economic activity. 

To discuss your currency requirement and obtain a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker, click here.

Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast Feb 2015

Monday 2nd February 2015
Good morning and welcome to a new trading week. After a very volatile couple of weeks that has seen GBP/EUR hit 7 year highs of €1.35, things have stabilised somewhat, and this morning the rate has dropped back into the €1.32’s. With no significant data of note today, the only thing I can attribute the drop to, is a rumour that the Swiss National Bank will be unofficially targeting a EUR/CHF rate of 1.05. 

Why has the Pound/Euro rate fallen? 

This is significant as they recently ended their policy of keeping the rate at 1.20. They did this by selling CHF and buying Euros to keep the desired rate. These rumours mean the SNB could be buying huge volumes of Euros to keep the rate where they want it, and this demand for Euros has strengthened the single currency and made it more expensive, hence why this could be the reason GBP/EUR rates have fallen a cent this morning. 

Will the Pound/Euro rate go higher or lower in February? 

All in all, with rates to buy Euro still above 1.30 which is close to a 7 year peak, it’s a good time to take stock of any Euro requirements you may have in the coming months. With all the bad news from Europe now priced into the rate, I think we’ll struggle to see it get much higher. Furthermore if the QE measures recently announced by the ECB have the desired effect, we could see the Euro gain further strength and pull GBP/EUR rates lower. 

It’s also worth mentioning Greece – it looks like they won’t default on their debts, and for the time being will be firmly remaining in the Euro, so the initial uncertainty after their election has now subsided, and that’s also why GBP/EUR has stopped climbing. 

Do you want the best possible exchange rates? 

Get in touch with me today to discuss the rates I can offer and the contract types you have at your disposal to ensure you don’t lose out. The consultancy service I provide is free, and involves a chat over the phone regarding your requirements. I can then explain the various options and choices you have to ensure you make an informed decision when to fix a rate. When you decide to fix a rate I can provide you a quotation; the rates I provide are often up to 5% better than banks and other brokers can offer so the savings can be huge. 

Click here to make a free enquiry with me today. 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I have outlined what I think will move exchange rates this week. To discuss how this could affect your currency requirement in more detail, click here to send me a free enquiry. 

Tuesday 3rd February 2015 – The only UK data of note is PMI construction, which looks at the construction sector. It’s a relatively minor release but could affect Sterling. GBP/AUD could face a volatile day however with an Australian Interest Rate decision and following statement. GBP/EUR has recently seen very good gains with trading levels above $1.90. Staying with the antipodean currencies, the NZD could also be affected by Unemployment figures and a central bank speech today. 

Wednesday 4th February 2015 – Again only 1 release from the UK today; services PMI. As an indicator of the economic situation in the UK it can often affect Sterling. Sterling/Euro could also be affect today however by EU Retail Sales, and a policy meeting from the European Central Bank. Across the Pond we have a host of data from the States, including Employment, Manufacturing and Services figures. 

Thursday 5th February 2015 – today we have the Bank of England interest rate decision. I think this will be a non-event; rates won’t change from 0.5% in my view for another year. Elsewhere today we have an economic bulletin from the ECB, Retail Sales from Australia and Jobless claims along with Trade Balance figures from the USA. 

Friday 6th February 2015 – Today the UK releases its Trade Balance figures, which show the difference between imports and exports, and this release often creates some volatility for the Pound. There aren’t any releases from Europe today, but in the afternoon we have Jobs data from the USA. The Non-Farm payrolls in particular can really move the GBP/USD rate. The forecast is for 235,000 new US jobs to have been created, but the actual figure is often very different which could move the Pound/Dollar rate around 1.30pm. 

To discuss how the above could affect your currency requirement in more detail, or to obtain a quotation on the rates I can offer, click here to send me a free enquiry.

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 1st December 2014 
Good afternoon and welcome to a new month. The currency markets have been relatively stable over the last week, with GBP/EUR remaining around the €1.26 mark, and GBP/USD in the $1.57’s. 

In today’s post I will list the economic data releases for the coming week that I think could affect exchange rates. 

This week’s economic data releases 

Tuesday 2nd December – Today is quite light for UK data, with Construction PMI the only release of note. We’re expecting the number to be 61.2 so anything above this could give the Pound some strength. In Europe, Spanish employment numbers are released. Australia has its latest building numbers, along with an Interest Rate statement from the RBA. Over in the United States there are 2 speeches by FED members, and also the chair Janet Yellen, so GBP/USD could be affected. 

Wednesday 3rd December – This could be an important one for Sterling, as we have Services PMI and the Autumn forecast Statement. GBP/EUR could also be affected by today’s EU Retail Sales figures and some EU inflation numbers. Most data is from the states today though; Manufacturing, Employment and speeches by FED members. 

Thursday 4th December – We have the latest interest rate decisions from the UK and EU today. While I expect no movement in the actual rate, speeches by the Banks governors afterwards could well affect Sterling/Euro exchange rates. We also have further US employment numbers this afternoon 

Friday 5th December – We end the week with a host of US data including Trade Balance numbers and Non-Farm Payrolls. These 2 releases often cause volatility in the exchange rate for GBP/USD. 

Do you have an upcoming currency transaction? 

If you need to convert currency then get in touch to find out more about the exchange rates I can offer. I regret we do not deal with cash or holiday money, only bank to bank transfers for amounts £5k+. You may have bought or sold a property abroad, or perhaps your business buys and sells goods from the Eurozone. Whatever your currency needs, you could save thousands by achieving a better exchange rate. 

Click here to find out more about the rates and currency services I can offer you.

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD forecast outlook

Tuesday 30th September 2014 
Good afternoon. It’s been a busy day in the currency markets, with Pound/Euro rising to €1.2850 but Pound/Dollar dropping to $1.62. in today’s post I will take a detailed look at both these currency pairs, what is causing the rate to move, and where I think rates could head in the coming months. 

Pound/Euro 

As you can see from the chart below, we have seen this exchange rate rise by a point in the last 24 hours. On the one hand the upwardly revised UK growth forecast has given Sterling a slight boost, but it was mostly to do with a weakening Euro. 

Eurozone inflation slipped again in September, with prices rising at their slowest rate in nearly five years. It is the lowest level for eurozone inflation since October 2009, adding to fears of a deflationary spiral. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures in an attempt to kick-start the eurozone economy. 

Due to this poor Eurozone data the Euro has weakened and become cheaper to purchase. 

Which way could GBP/EUR head now? 

In light of the latest economic data from Europe, I think it’s quite likely they will have to now pursue a Quantitative Easing programme to stimulate the EU economy. If this happens then the Euro will weaken further. Also, as we get closer to UK interest rates going up, this could strengthen the Pound. So looking at these 2 events on their own would suggest Pound/Euro rates will go higher, although I think this will be into 2015. 

If you need to buy Euros, you could either fix the rate now while it’s close to a 6 year high. Alternatively if you wanted to gamble on rates going higher due to the reasons above, then you should place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to protect you in case the rates drops back away. This has happened several times this year, and with UK political uncertainty likely to affect the Pound next year, could this limit any gains for the Pound? 

Click here to discuss your Pound/Euro or Euro/Pound requirement and get a free quote 

Pound/Dollar 

This currency pair has fallen by a point today to $1.62. Part of this is due to the weak Euro, and investors dumping the single currency to buy the Dollar, strengthening the greenback. Rates have now dropped from $1.72 to $1.62 in the last few months. 

Which was could GBP/USD head now? 

The US economy is now performing very well, as is the UK economy. As the US winds up its stimulus programme, the greenback will likely gain further strength, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop below $1.60 in the coming months. 

Summary 

It’s impossible to know which way rates will go, and I think interest rates and when they will go up in the UK will determine whether exchange rates rise or fall in the next few months. Regardless of which currency you need to buy or sell, having a good currency broker that can guide you through the process and secure you very good exchange rates can save you thousands of Pounds. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today. I can provide you a quote, explain the options you have depending on your particular requirement and timeframe, and explain what is moving the currency markets. In this way you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and get a quote to compare with your bank or existing currency broker. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Pound/Euro forecast September 2014

Monday 1st September 2014 
Good morning and welcome to a new month. Pound/Euro rates have started quite strongly at €1.2650 due to a weakening Euro, but Pound/Dollar remains low at just above $1.66. In today’s report I will outline what has pushed GBP/EUR rates higher, the forecast for September, along with this week’s data releases that could affect exchange rates. 

Pound/Euro up to €1.2655 

After a few weeks of decline in the GBP/EUR rate, this morning we saw it recover back close to 2 year highs. This is partly due to the crisis in Ukraine and the risks this presents to the EU recovery. 

The main reason why the Pound has risen against the Euro is weakness in the single currency. Low inflation means that the pressure is on the European Central Bank to provide further stimulus which could take the form of Quantitative Easing. They will announce whether they will do so at a meeting on Thursday. If they do announce stimulus, expect the Euro to weaken and Pound/Euro rates to rise. 

However, Analysts at Barclays said it was too soon for the ECB to announce new policy measures, given that the two most powerful policies announced in June are not yet deployed. So there are mixed views on whether anything will be announced on Thursday. If so, exchange rates will probably go up. If they don’t say anything, then the rate will probably drop. 

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Pound/Dollar remains low at $1.66 

This again is partly due to the problems in Ukraine and the middle-east. When there is global uncertainty like there is at present, the Dollar gains strength and becomes more expensive to buy. 

 The US economy is also recovering well, and they have been winding up their stimulus programme. So like the UK, the USA is recovering and this is being reflected in the strength of the respective currencies. 

Summary 

The UK and US economies are doing well; the Dollar and Pound are strong as a result. The EU economy is doing badly, and they are likely to have to take measures to boost the economy. This is weakening the Euro. 

The geopolitical situation in Ukraine and the middle-east is also causing problems for the EU economy, and causing the safe haven US Dollar to gain in strength and become more expensive. All of the above means GBP/USD is low, GBP/EUR is at a 2 year high, and there are various economic releases (detailed below) this week that could keep the currency markets quite volatile. 

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 *** I'm on holiday from tomorrow so my blog will next be updated on the 10th September ***

This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday 1st September – Today has been very quiet due to a market holiday in the United States. We did have slightly worse than expected UK Mortgage Approval and inflation numbers this morning, pulling the Pound slightly lower. 

Tuesday 2nd September – Overnight Australia will have released its latest interest rate decision which I expect will stay at 2.5%. The only UK data of note today is PMI construction released at 09:30am. US Markets open again today with figures showing the latest Construction and Manufacturing. 

Wednesday 3rd September – Further UK inflation figures today could affect the Pound. GBP/EUR could also be affected by the latest UK Retail Sales figures. Elsewhere we will see Australian growth figures, an interest rate decision from Canada, and the latest US Factory Order numbers. 

Thursday 4th September – As always for the first Thursday in the month, the EU and UK release their latest decision on interest rates. They will probably leave them as they are, but there is a chance as I outlined above that the EU could announce stimulus measures. Expect exchange rates to rise if this is the case. Over in the USA we have the latest Jobless numbers and Trade Balance figures. 

Friday 5th September – The only UK data of note is a consumer inflation report. The EU releases its latest GDP figures. Canada has some unemployment numbers. Over in the states we have earnings and non-farm payroll figures. These are often very different to forecast to expect a choppy day for Pound/Dollar rates. 

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Pound/Euro & Pound Dollar forecast 2014

Wednesday 6th August 2014 
Good afternoon. The currency markets remain quite volatile, with Pound/Euro rates recovering slightly this week back to the €1.26 mark; however Pound/Dollar rates have fallen to around $1.68, quite a bit below the 5 year high we recently saw. Today I’ll cover what has been happening to exchange rates, including forecasts on where the GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rate may move in the coming weeks. 

Pound/Euro 

As you can see from the chart below, the Pound/Euro rate recently hit a 2 year high of €1.27. Many thought the rate would continue to climb towards 1.30 however I warned that I thought the market had peaked, and the Pound/Euro rate was as high as it may go in the short term. 

Indeed over the course of the last month the rate has failed to improve, and has dipped several times due to poor UK economic data. There have been warnings from the IMF that the Pound is far overvalued, and UK economic figures are starting to disappoint. For much of 2014 the UK has been enjoying a robust economic recovery, and this had been driving the Pound upwards. 

It now seems the good news is all priced into the value of the Pound, and that’s why the rate has leveled off. This morning we had some poor UK Manufacturing and Industrial production figures that knocked the Pound lower, however it soon recovered as we saw poor German factory orders that weakened the Euro and reversed the drop. 

The next mover for exchange rates will likely be tomorrow’s Bank of England and European Central bank statements. Clues could be given to monetary policy, and any surprises could easily cause exchange rates to move significantly. 

Which way could Pound/Euro move in the coming months? 

It’s impossible to predict the market, but my view is that the Pound is unlikely to break higher in the short term. The fact that interest rates will only rise slowly in the UK is likely to keep the Pound in check, so if you need to buy Euros this year, you should consider fixing the rate while it’s so good. You can fix the rate for up to 2 years into the future by lodging 10% of the total you want to convert. Click here to find out more about these types of contracts. 

Those with Euros to move back to Pounds should also be cautious. While rates have stopped moving against you, you don’t want to leave yourself exposed. A Stop Loss order protects you against the exchange rate getting worse, while still allowing you to take advantage of any gains in your favour. 

If you are looking for the best rates between Pounds and Euros, click here for a free no obligation enquiry on how we can help you and the rates we can offer. 

Pound/Dollar forecast 2014

Recently Sterling/Dollar was comfortably above the $1.70 mark, however has been falling in recent weeks. I expect this to continue due to the fact the US economy is starting to recover, and this is strengthening the Dollar making it more expensive to purchase. 

The political uncertainty in Ukraine and the Middle East is also causing the ‘safe haven’ US Dollar to gain strength. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates back towards the $1.60 mark by year end. 

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Get in touch for a free quote on our exchange rates 

• Buying or selling property abroad? 
• Converting Euros back to Pounds? 
• Buying goods from overseas? 
• Topping up your Euro account in France? 
• Import materials from China for your business? 
• Want the very best rates of exchange?

Whatever your currency needs, large or small, my service can help you achieve the best exchange rates and utilise contracts that can protect your bottom line. 

Click here to make a free enquiry today and find out how I can help. - See more at: http://www.foreignexchangerateforecasts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/pound-falls-further-against-other.html#sthash.iBgo6lMi.dpuf

Get in touch for a free quote on our exchange rates 

• Buying or selling property abroad? 
• Converting Euros back to Pounds? 
• Buying goods from overseas? 
• Topping up your Euro account in France? 
• Import materials from China for your business? 
• Want the very best rates of exchange?

Whatever your currency needs, large or small, my service can help you achieve the best exchange rates and utilise contracts that can protect your bottom line. 

Click here to make a free enquiry today and find out how I can help. - See more at: http://www.foreignexchangerateforecasts.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/pound-falls-further-against-other.html#sthash.iBgo6lMi.dpuf

Currency Exchange Rate Forecast 2014

Tuesday 29th July 2014 
Good morning. It’s been a very quiet start to the week for the currency markets, with no data of note being released yesterday. Today is also quiet, so in today’s post I will give a quick round up of where exchange rates stand, and list the rest of the week’s economic data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. 

Pound/Euro 

The GBP/EUR rate cannot seem to sustain its highs. We have seen the rate climb into the €1.26’s before dropping back off. That’s exactly what we’ve seen happen again this morning. So why is the rate to buy Euros peaking and failing to climb higher? 

It’s because all the recent good news regarding the UK economy is no longer surprising the markets, and is now largely priced into the value of the Pound. I think in the short to medium term it’s unlikely we’ll see any more significant gains. In the medium to longer term however, if the EU needs to try and pump money into the economy then the Euro could weaken further and push rates higher. Also the closer we get to interest rates going up then the Pound could start climbing, but that’s probably some way off. 

Those looking to buy Euros should consider fixing the rate while it’s at a 2 year high, given that the rate seems to have peaked. Those that need to convert Euros to Pounds over the next year should consider fixing the rate on a Forward contract. While I don’t expect the rate to go higher in the short term, I do expect it up around €1.30 into next year. 

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Pound/Dollar 

With this exchange rate, we keep seeing it break above $1.70 before dropping back off again. This morning rates have dipped back into the $1.70’s.The reasons for this are the same as outlined in the Euro section above – the impressive UK economic figures are now largely priced into the Pound. 

Unlike Pound/Euro however, I expect Pound/Dollar rates to drop back away. There are 2 reasons I think this. Firstly, the US economy is starting to recover, and as this continues the Dollar will gain strength and become more expensive to buy. Secondly, as the Euro gets weaker, generally the Dollar gets stronger, so I expect this currency cross to drop off in the coming months.

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This week’s economic data that could affect exchange rates 

Tuesday 29th July 2014 - The only data of note today was released earlier this morning, with UK mortgage approvals coming in slightly better than expected but lending figures slightly below the forecast. They effectively cancelled each other out so no change for the Pound. Later this afternoon we have US Consumer confidence numbers, which could affect Pound/Dollar rates. 

Wednesday 30th July 2014 - There is nothing of note from the UK today other than consumer confidence figures at midnight. We do however have lots from the EU and US so it could be a volatile day on the currency markets. 

Starting in Europe, we have Industrial Confidence, Economic Sentiment measures, in addition to inflation numbers from Germany. So lots here that could give an indication how the EU economy is faring, and this could affect Pound/Euro rates. 

It’s a very busy day in the states. We have Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures which often affect exchange rates. There is also an interest rate decision, and although I expect rates to stay on hold, any comments or hints at future policy could affect GBP/USD. 

Thursday 31st July 2014 - Pound/Euro could be affected today by German Retail Sales and Unemployment numbers, and EU wide inflation figures. Canada releases its latest GDP figures, and over in the USA we have measures of unemployment. 

Friday 1st August 2014 - Inflation figures from Europe and the UK will be watched closely today by Sterling/Euro buyers. Other than that all data is from the states: Earnings, Unemployment, Inflation, Sentiment, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls that often causes large swings in the GBP/USD rate. 

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