Friday 17th January 2014 This morning at 09:30am we saw the latest UK retail sales figures. These are watched closely as they reflect the overall economic situation in the UK, and for this reason the numbers often have an effect on exchange rates. The figures this morning were significantly above forecast, and as you can see from today’s GBP/EUR chart below, they have caused a big spike in exchange rates: 
The numbers showed that sales in December were up 5.3% on a year ago, and this is the fastest annual sales growth in more than nine years. The forecast was for 2.6%, so it's significantly better than expected. The figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested growth in consumer spending above the expectations of many analysts. There aren’t many other significantly releases today, other than a speech by a Bank of England member at lunchtime, and some US Housing numbers later this afternoon. Do you need to buy Euros?
The spike this morning has pushed GBP/EUR rates back up to a 12 month high. We’ve seen this happen several times now over the last 6 weeks, only for the gains to be short lived and rates to drop back away again, so if history repeats itself we could well see rates drop back away. If you need to convert Pounds to Euros, this could be a good opportunity to take advantage of this spike. If you need to buy Euros and would like to see what rates I can offer you, click here to send me a free enquiry. Are you converting Euros back to Pounds? 
Rates have been above the €1.20 level for some time now, and we have seen it spike several times before dropping back away. If you need to convert Euros to Sterling then the medium term forecast for the market moving against you should ring alarm bells. You can use tools such as Stop Loss Orders to help you achieve the best rates possible. If you would like to find our more about how these works and the excellent exchange rates I can offer you, click here to get in touch with me today. Are you converting another currency, for example NZD, AUD, CAD, USD, CHF? 
I can trade most of the world’s major currencies, at exchange rates that are up to 5% better than banks can offer. This combined with the range of currency contracts available and my excellent knowledge of the currency markets could save you thousands of Pounds if you need to convert one currency to another. Why are you reading this? Perhaps you’re buying or selling a property abroad, or buy or sell goods in a different country, but whatever your requirements, you are likely reading this because you want to know which way exchange rates may move, and would like to achieve the best exchange rate possible. Get in touch with me now my sending me a free enquiry. I can have a brief chat with you over the telephone, discuss your requirements, explain the options you have available, and let you know the rate I can offer. By getting in touch you could well save yourself thousands of Pounds. I look forward to hearing from you. Have a great weekend. Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 15th January 2014 It’s been a volatile week for exchange rates since my last post on Monday. Despite not much data other than some inflation numbers, we have seen Pound/Euro rise to 1.2070 before dropping back towards the 1.20 level. Against the Dollar, the Pound has fallen from $1.65 to $1.6350. In today’s post I’m going to analyse the reasons why the Pound has been fluctuating up and down, and where exchange rates may be headed in the short term. If you are looking to make a transfer from Sterling to a foreign currency, or convert a currency back into Sterling, then click here to find out about the rates and service that I can offer you. UK Inflation Figures cause volatility for the Pound Yesterday we saw UK Inflation figures released, and it’s this that has caused the GBP/EUR rate to fluctuate. The figures showed that inflation has dropped to 2% which is the government’s target. It’s the first time it’s been at that level for about 4 years. So what effect did this have on exchange rates? Before analysing the effect it had, let me explain how inflation figures can affect rates. Inflation is controlled by interest rates, so if inflation is high then interest rates would usually be raised to combat this, and vice versa. (Higher interest rates usually strengthen a currency as the higher return on offer attracts investors.) Several years ago this was usually the case, but since the financial crisis central banks have kept interest rates at record lows. Despite inflation running high of late, there was no expectation of a rate hike to combat it. Much of Sterling’s strength recently has been due to the improving economy, and the fact that economists think interest rates will soon rise in the UK due to falling unemployment. The low inflation number would however now indicate that there is less chance of an interest rate hike any time soon.How did the lower figure affect Sterling? 
Initially, the market reacted accordingly and the Pound fell slightly. This was probably due to the fact that economists said the fall would ease pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates following the recent recovery in the economy. However very quickly we saw this reverse, and the Pound actually rose back up again. So why did this happen? Well despite the figure being low and reducing the case for a rate hike, overall the news is actually good for the UK economy. As investors slowly realised this, the Pound became supported again and rates rose close to €1.21 against the Euro. As has been the case of late however, the rise in the rate was yet again short lived. Mark Carney faced MPs on the Treasury Select Committee today, and during the Q&A he has effectively poured cold water on a rate hike any time soon, so this has reversed the gains. At the time of writing, GBP/EUR is 1.2017 and GBP/USD is 1.6345. Where will the Pound head next in 2014? The next key data in my view will be on Friday, when we see the latest UK Retail Sales numbers. These are a good indicator of how the economy is performing as a whole, and I expect the figure to show a rise of 0.5%. If it’s higher than this, then expect Sterling exchange rates to rise. If it’s lower, we will probably see rates fall. Are you looking for the best exchange rates? 
I am a Senior Currency Broker for one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokerages, and update this blog to help people understand what moves rates. Did you know that I can also help you source exchange rates that are significantly better then banks and other brokers can usually offer? In addition to helping you get better rates, you can also take advantage of the extensive knowledge I have of the currency markets. In this way you can make an informed choice on when to fix your exchange rate, and the best type of contract for you. I have helped thousands of clients get great rates of exchange for nearly 10 years. If you are keen on finding out more about what I can offer, send me a free enquiry by clicking here. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold.
Monday 13th January 2013 The Pound has fallen further today against other currencies and currently sits at €1.20 vs the Euro. This is in addition to the falls in the rate we saw on Friday, due to poor manufacturing figures, as I outlined in my last post.So what has caused the drop today? To be honest it’s been quite hard to pin a reason on the decline today, as there have been no significant data releases that would have caused the volatility. After some further research, it appears that the fall in the value of the Pound today was due to a measure of whether U.K. economic data has been beating analysts’ expectations, and this has damped investor demand for the currency, and as a result it has weakened and exchange rates have fallen. You can read more about this on the Bloomberg site here. I can find no other explanation for the drop in rates. This has meant the Pound has dropped to the lowest level in a month against the Euro down to €1.20, and down to $1.6380 vs the US Dollar. We could see rates rise again, and much will depend on how economic data releases this week fit in with expectations. So as usual for a Monday, below I will list the remaining data releases that are due this week, and give my thought on how they could affect exchange rates. Remember that if you have a currency requirement, you can contact me for a free quote by clicking here. Even if you currently use a broker, even a small difference in the rate can represent a big saving. It doesn’t cost anything to send me an enquiry, so do so now by clicking here. What could affect exchange rates in the coming week? Monday 13th January 2014 As explained above, today was very light with no significant data releases, however this hasn’t stopped Sterling falling by around 0.6%. Tuesday 14th January 2014 A little bit more to digest today – at 09:30am we will see the latest inflation numbers. These are important as they are linked to interest rates, and it’s speculation of higher rates that has been the main cause of Sterling’s strength recently. The 2 annual figures are expected at 2.1% and 1.8% respectively. Higher and the Pound will gain, lower and the Pound will fall. Elsewhere, we have EU Industrial Production numbers, but I don’t think they will have much impact. WE will also see UK Retail Sales today. They are a good barometer of overall economic activity, and so if the numbers disappoint, we could see GBP/USD rates rise. Wednesday 15th January 2014 Very quiet again today with nothing on the calender that should affect GBP/EUR rates. GBP/USD could be affected however by US Mortgage numbers and a FED report on the current economic situation in the United States. Thursday 16th January 2014 A very busy day for EU and US Data today. Starting in Europe, we have various measures of inflation, and these will be key to whether the ECB cuts rates any further. Lower than expected numbers would increase the chance of rates being cut, and would cause GBP/EUR to rise further. Over in the states, we also have a raft of inflation numbers, along with Jobless Claims and a speech by the outgoing FED chairman. There is nothing of note being released from the UK today. Friday 17th January 2014 We end the week with UK Retail Sales, and Housing data from the US. - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
- Unsure when to go ahead and fix a rate?
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Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now and I can get in touch to discuss any of the above with you to help you decide what to do. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Friday 10th January 2013 Well, as is often the case in the currency markets, spikes are short lived and the gains we saw yesterday against the Euro have been eroded. In today’s post I’m going to have a look at what has happened this week with Pound/Euro rates, Pound/US Dollar rates, and Pound/Australian Dollar rates. I'll also take a look at where the rates have been historically, and what may happen during 2014.If you find my blog useful, then feel free to get in touch with me by clicking here. I can offer you a free consultation on what’s happening with exchange rates to help you make an informed choice on when to fix your rate. In addition to taking advantage of my market knowledge, I can give you a quote for your exchange that could be up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker. First things first, let’s see what’s been happening with exchange rates this week. Pound/Euro 
The rate is around the best it’s been in 12 months. The ECB meeting yesterday that I touched on in yesterday’s post, caused rates to hit €1.2150. As I explained in my brief post yesterday, the fact that the ECB hinted at lower interest rates significantly weakened the Euro, and this made it cheaper to buy, pushing rates to the mid €1.21’s. It was not to last however. This morning we saw some disappointing industrial and manufacturing production figures that were well below forecast. The result was a weakening of the Pound/Euro rate back to where we started the week! During the last week though, the fluctuations mean converting £150k netted you a Euro amount differing by up to €2500.00, illustrating that getting your timing right can make a huge difference. Pound/US Dollar 
Exchange rates to buy US Dollars are close to a 4 year high. The poor UK data this morning, as I outlined in the Euro section above, pulled rates from 1.65 down to 1.64. However this afternoon we had some extremely low jobs numbers from the states. Analysts thought nearly 200,000 new jobs would be created, but in fact it was only 74,000. As the number was way lower than expected, the Dollar weakened and pushed the GBP/USD rate back up to 1.65 again. Pound/Australian Dollar 
Exchange rates to buy Australian Dollars are currently the best they have been in over 4 years. Remarkably, this time last year the GBP/AUD rate was the worst it has been in decades. This was because the AUD was very strong, Australia avoided recession and China import huge amounts of raw materials from Australia and so this gave the currency support and making it expensive. That all changed 6 months ago and the rate is now the best in over 4 years! This is in part due to the UK recovering, so the Pound is strong. I think it's more to do with China though - their growth has slowed massively, so less demand for raw goods from Australia, this in turn has significantly weakened the Aussie and has made it very cheap to buy indeed. I think it's going to continue to be china that drives the rate - if their economy starts growing at a ridiculous pace again, then we'll see the rate drop back away. To put it in perspective, converting £150k to AUD is netting you nearly $60,000 more than beginning of last year, which is quite amazing really when you think about the fact rates were at the lowest in 30 years 6 months ago. Summary So there we go, and that’s my view on some of the major currency pairs. If you are looking for the best exchange rates, want to discuss which way the market may go, or simply want to get a quote on the exchange rate I can offer you, then click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry. I’ll be back on Monday with a breakdown of how next week’s economic figures might affect exchange rates. Click here to send me a free enquiry nowAlastair Archbold
Thursday 9th January 2014 Good afternoon. A quick update on exchange rates, as we have seen Pound/Euro surge to new highs, and currently the rate is €1.2150. The reason for the gains were as I outlined in my post yesterday. As I predicted, there were no surprises from the central bank decisions, however in the ECB Press conference, I mentioned that if the President Mario Draghi hinted at lower interest rates in the future for the EU, it would weaken the Euro and push rates up. This is exactly what has happened. He said rates would "remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The markets reacted immediately, and as you can see from the chart below, the GBP/EUR rate shot up from 1.2085 to 1.2150. This is now a very attractive time to need to fix a rate buying Euros. You can read more about what happened in the ECB press conference here on the BBC website. If you would like to discuss how I can help you achieve excellent commercial exchange rates, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
Wednesday 8th January 2014 We have seen the Pound gain in strength today, and Sterling/Euro exchange rates have risen to €1.21. In today’s post I’m going to give my view on why I think this has happened, and also have a look at what could happen tomorrow (Thursday) which I think is going to be key for what happens to exchange rates in the short term. It’s a very important day for currencies as we have some key data from 3 of the world’s major central banks in the next 24 hours. But first, let’s look at today’s gains….Pound/Euro rates rise to €1.21 As you can see from the chart, Pound/Euro rates have gained nicely today, hitting €1.21 before levelling off. So what has caused the jump in rates? One factor could be the unemployment numbers from the Eurozone that were released earlier. It shows unemployment is now at 12.1%, which is much higher than we have in the UK. As such this may have weakened the Euro causing rates to rise. But to be honest, the number was pretty much as expected, and EU Retail Sales were actually better than forecast, so I don’t think that’s the reason for the movement today. I think the reason for the rise is more market expectation on what will happen in the next 24 hours, when we have some key releases from 3 of the worlds major Central Banks – the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. So, let’s have detailed look at what effect any action by these central banks could have on exchange rates. *** Key Central Bank decisions in the next 24 hours *** European Central Bank (ECB) 
Tomorrow at 12:45pm the ECB will announce their latest decision on interest rates. I think it is very unlikely that they will change the rate, but at 13:30pm the ECB President Mario Draghi will give a press conference. This is very important, as if he hints that rates may be cut in the coming months, then the Euro is likely to weaken. I think there is a good chance rates may go down in the EU, as inflation is falling in the EU. I also think that could be the reason that the Pound/Euro rate has gone up today, as markets start to factor in the likelihood of this happening. So listen carefully tomorrow lunchtime to his comments, and see the effect it has on rates. If he doesn’t hint at rate cuts, then expect GBP/EUR rates to drop back away. Bank of England (BoE) 
Like the ECB, the BoE also announce their latest decision on interest rates. Also like the ECB, I don’t expect any changes or surprises. Sometimes the governor, Mark Carney, makes comments after the decision, and usually he is quite positive about the Pound. I don’t think the BoE decision will cause many waves, and all eyes will be on the ECB US Federal Reserve 
This evening, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, when the central bank announced its decision to begin trimming its Quantitative Easing programme will be released. Much like with the ECB, it’s comments that are sometimes made that will move the markets, and if the minutes are very positive, expect Pound/Dollar rates to drop back away. Getting the best exchange rates I guess you will be reading this as you are keen to know which way exchange rates may go, and want to make sure you get the best rate possible, at the best time; while markets cannot be predicted, hopefully my blog is proving useful for you in this respect.Feel free to send me a free enquiry by clicking below, and I can get in touch to discuss your particular requirements, and answer any questions you may have on exchange rates. I can also help you achieve exchange rates that are up to 5% better than banks can offer, and so the savings can be considerable. So get in touch today, it costs nothing, and you may be very surprised how much you can save. Click here to send me a free enquiry now. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Monday 6th January 2014 Good afternoon everybody and welcome to a new year. I am back in action today with regular updates on exchange rates. For new readers, this blog is updated several times per week with an outline of what is happening with exchange rates. This should prove useful for anyone following the currency markets that needs to buy or sell foreign currency, perhaps when buying or selling abroad or for example business’s that import or export to other countries. In addition to my blog providing currency updates and foreign exchange forecasts, I can also help you source exchange rates up to 5% better than you can achieve at banks and other financial institutions through the company I work for. If you are interested in getting a quote or would like to find out more, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. So what has been happening with exchange rates so far in 2014? 
It’s been a relatively muted start to the year. Pound/Euro rates remain a little above €1.20 which is around the highest in a year, and Pound/Dollar rates remain just above $1.64 which is not far off the highest in several years. In my last post I outlined what had been happening last year that had caused rates to rise to the current highs. So far this year, the Pounds rise seems to have ended. On the first working day of the year we saw some disappointing Manufacturing figures that pulled Sterling lower, but Construction figures impressed and this brought things back to where they were. Today has been relatively quiet on the markets, with a mix of data from Germany that weakened the Euro a little, but not by much. So today I will list the remaining data releases this week that I think will affect exchange rates. Remember if you would like to get a free quote or discuss your requirement with me for free, you can send me a free enquiry by clicking here. This week’s data that could affect exchange rates. Tuesday 7th January 2014 There aren’t any releases from the UK today, so those looking at Pound/Euro rates will be focusing on data from Europe. We have German Unemployment and Retail Sales, along with inflation data for the Eurozone as a whole. Better than expected figures would strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower. Elsewhere US Trade Balance figures could affect Pound/Dollar rates. Wednesday 8th January 2014 Again nothing of note from the UK. EU data today is Retail Sales and Unemployment data, and if the numbers differ from forecast, expect volatility in the Pound/Euro rate. In the USA we have Mortgage Approvals, Employment data, and minutes from the recent FED meeting where QE tapering was announced. Thursday 9th January 2014 We finally get going with some news from the UK: firstly we have Trade Balance numbers which are very important for the economy, and so could affect the value of the Pound. At lunchtime we have the latest decision on QE and interest rates; I don’t expect any change, but any comments that accompany the announcement could have an effect on exchange rates. In the Eurozone we also have an interest rate decision, and I expect rates to stay on hold at 0.25%. Again as with the UK, in the press conference after the decision, any hint at a future rate cut could weaken the Euro and push GBP/EUR rates higher. We also see Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, and Industrial confidence measures. We end the day with Jobless numbers from the United States. Friday 10th January 2014 The only UK data of note today is Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers released at 09.30am. We also have a GDP estimate from the National Institute for Economic and Social research. The most recent estimate was 0.8% - anything above this will cause the Pound to rise, and vice versa. Today we also see US Non-Farm payrolls – the actual figure is usually quite different to the forecast, as it’s so hard to predict, and therefore causes swings in the GBP/USD rate. - Looking for the best exchange rates?
- Want to know if your rate will go up or down this year?
- Unsure when to go ahead and fix a rate?
- Keen to get a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker?
Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now and I can get in touch to discuss any of the above with you to help you decide what to do. I look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
I can trade most of the world’s major currencies, at exchange rates that are up to 5% better than banks can offer. This combined with the range of currency contracts available and my excellent knowledge of the currency markets could save you thousands of Pounds if you need to convert one currency to another. 
