Sterling falls on poor UK inflation figures

Tuesday 13th October 2015 
Volatility has returned to the markets, and since my last post on Friday we have seen the Pound/Euro rate drop a further 2 cents, dipping into the €1.33’s this morning, and is currently settled at around €1.34 as you can see from the chart below: 

Poor UK Inflation figures weaken Sterling 

The reason for the drop of over 1 cent this morning was due to poor UK inflation figures. This morning the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell into negative territory at -0.1%. This is worse than expected, and pours cold water on any hope the Bank of England will be raising interest rates. As the pressure is off the BoE, investors are not going to be buying Sterling in a hurry, and as such the Pound has weakened. The effect on the exchange rate is that levels have dropped off across the board. 

Do you have Euros to convert to Pounds? 

While the market movements today are bad news for those buying a foreign currency with Sterling, those that have Euros to convert back to Pounds will be rejoicing! The current EUR/GBP rate is the best it’s been since January. If you will have Euros or indeed any other currency to convert to Sterling, then it’s worth serious consideration to locking a rate in now. Even if you don’t have your funds available now, you can still use my services to guarantee today’s rate for up to 2 years in to the future, using a ‘Forward contract’. (Click here to send me an enquiry to find out more). 

Need the best exchange rates? 

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I will get in touch with you personally, and often better rates available at banks or other currency brokers by as much as 3%, so it's certainly worth getting in touch to see what I can do for you. 

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Different ways you can get the best exchange rates

Thursday 8th October 2015 
The currency markets have been calmer this week, with not as much fluctuation a we have seen in recent weeks. In the chart below, you can see that the Pound/Euro rate in particular has remained range-bound between 1.3550 and 1.3650 in recent days: 

The reason rates are relatively stable is that economic figures have been roughly as expected. UK GDP is around 0.5% which is about what the markets thought. German Exports were down but it didn’t really weaken the Euro much. The Bank of England (BoE) have kept interest rates on hold as expected, and the speeches by the central bank governors didn’t really give any surprises. It’s still the case that the BoE will likely raise rates halfway through 2016 and I don’t expect much Sterling strength until then. 

How to buy currency at the best exchange rates 

Given the relative calm in the markets, I thought today would be a good opportunity to outline the various contracts that I can offer to help you get the best exchange rates and protect you against adverse movements in currency prices. I can source you rates up to 5% better than banks and other brokers may offer, so if you have a currency transaction and would like a quote to compare, then get in touch for free here. 

Here are the main contracts I can offer for currency exchange: 

Spot Contract (Buy your today) – This is the most popular way to buy currency. You fix a rate over the telephone, settle within 2 days, and your currency is transferred by priority transfer to the account of your choice. The rate varies throughout the day as we buy live from the market, and can be up to 5% better than your bank or existing broker may offer. 

Forward Contract (Fix into the Future) –You can fix today’s rate of exchange for up to 2 years, protecting you against volatility and helping you to budget. You lodge 10% of the total to be converted within 2 days, with the remaining balance due when you want your currency transferred. This type of contract really helps budgeting for business’s and those buying or selling property abroad. 

Limit order (Hold out for a better rate) – Secure your currency when your desired rate becomes available; particularly useful if time is on your side and you think the rate may get better. This allows you to aim for a higher rate in the hope that things will get better. 

Stop loss order (Protect against rates dropping) – Your currency is exchanged if the rate goes below a pre-determined level. Combined with a limit order, you can hold out for a better rate while protecting yourself from a sudden fall in the market. This gives you a worst case scenario so you don’t end up paying more than necessary for your currency. 

So that's a brief overview of the main contracts I offer. I also provide a free consultative service for any clients who need the best exchange rates in order to explain what may move the rate, to help you decide when to fix a rate and what contract type to use. Using these types of contract give you control over your currency purchase. The alternative is simply sitting back and hoping the exchange rate will move in your favour. In my experience, hope is not a reliable economic tool. 

To discuss our contract types in more detail and take the first step to taking control of your currency needs, contact me today by sending me a free enquiry by clicking below, and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements. 

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Pound falls slightly on poor Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures

Wednesday 9th September 
After gradually rising this week, the Pound has fallen slightly against the Euro and US Dollar today due to worse than expected UK data. Figures released earlier today showed that UK Industrial and Manufacturing production fell at its sharpest pace in more than a year. I warned on Monday that if the figures were worse than forecast Sterling could fall, and while the expected numbers were predicted to show slight growth, the actual numbers showed a decline of -0.4% & -0.8% respectively. As you can see from today’s GBP/EUR chart below, Sterling fell by around 1 cent against the Euro, however has since started to claw back its losses. (Click here to see my live currency chart)

Tomorrow key for whether Pound will rise or fall in the coming months 

At 12pm tomorrow, we will have a much clearer idea of whether Sterling is likely to rise or fall in the coming months, based on interest rate expectations. The Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates, and they will almost certainly keep them on hold at 0.5%. Straight after the decision however, they will give a statement and release the minutes to the meeting. This will be key as it will show the views of the Monetary Policy Committee and what was discussed, and how many of the members if any voted for rates to rise. 

If these minutes give any hint that interest rates will rise early next year, then the Pound is likely to gain against other currencies. If they show that actually recent economic developments mean that rates will stay on hold for most of 2016, then expect the Pound to fall. 

How do I think the BoE decision could affect exchange rates? 

It’s impossible to predict currency movements of course, but I think that it’s quite likely the Pound could fall. I reach this conclusion because the current global economic downturn risks affecting the UK’s growth prospects, and raising interest rates too soon could hamper the steady recovery that Britain has been making relative to other major western economies. For this reason I think rates will stay on hold for around 12 months. This also means that investors are less likely to want to keep Sterling assets, and as a result Sterling exchange rates could fall. 

Of course, the BoE governor Mark Carney is highly unpredictable and it is impossible to second guess what effect his comments may have on the Pound. I’m quite sure however that tomorrow will see a change in the value of the Pound one way or the other. 

Are you worried about exchange rates moving against you? 

Regardless whether you are buying or selling foreign currency, the worst thing you can do is simply sit back and watch the market, hoping that the rate will move in a favourable way for you. The currency markets are highly unpredictable and this approach could cost you dearly. 

If you have a currency transaction to perform there are a number of ways I can be of help. Firstly, I can source rates of exchange that are very close to the published market level, and up to 5% better than banks or other currency brokers can offer. Secondly, with over 15 years’ experience in the FX Markets, I have a very good knowledge of what can affect exchange rates, and can help you to make an informed decision on when to lock in a rate of exchange. 

I would welcome the opportunity to speak to anyone that needs to get a quote on their exchange and explain how I can help you. Click here to send me your details and I will get in touch personally to discuss your requirements today. 

Send me an enquiry today by clicking here. 

What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 7th September 2015 
Good morning. As usual for a Monday, today I will outline this weeks scheduled data releases that could affect exchange rates. 

If you’re reading my blog, the chances are that you have a currency transaction to perform and are looking at what is moving exchange rates. If that’s the case, then why not get in touch to discuss your requirement in more detail and get a quote? 

I can source exchange rates all major currency pairs that are up to 5% better than the banks can offer. We also have several different types of currency contracts that enable you to fix today’s rates for up to 2 years, and ways of booking currency should the exchange rate hit a particular level you may be targeting. Click here to send a free no obligation enquiry today and see how much you could save. 

This week’s data that could affect Sterling exchange rates 

Monday 7th September 2015 – It’s been relatively quiet today on the data front due to a market holiday in the United States. In Europe, the month on month German Industrial production was slightly worse than expected, weakening the single currency slightly and pushing GBP/EUR rates to around €1.37. 

Tuesday 8th September 2015 – There’s no UK data of note today, however GBP/EUR exchange rates could still be affected by some important releases in Europe. In Germany, the latest Trade Balance figures are released. This can be important because if this shows a demand for German exports, then the Euro could gain strength and become more expensive to buy. We also see the latest EU wide Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers today. I expect quarterly growth of 0.3%. Any less than this then expect GBP/EUR to rise, and vice versa. 

Wednesday 9th September 2015 – Some UK data for investors to chew on today, including Industrial & Manufacturing production, a GDP estimate (expected at 0.7%) and House Price data. If we see less growth than expected with any of these, the Sterling is likely to fall. Elsewhere, Canada and New Zealand releases their latest decision on interest rates which could affect GBP/CAD and GBP/NZD rates. 

Thursday 10th September 2015 – Today is the most important day of the week for Sterling, as we have the latest Bank of England interest rate decision. Rates are almost certainly going to be left on hold at 0.5%, however immediately after the decision, the governor will release the minutes which will show how the vote went, and what they discussed. If any of the members voted for a rate hike, expect the Pound to gain. Elsewhere, Australia releases lots of Jobs numbers. I think these are quite likely to be poor so expect the AUD to lose out if that’s the case. 

Friday 11th September 2015 – The only UK data of note today is the latest inflation expectations. This can impact future interest rate movements and so might affect Sterling. Elsewhere Germany releases inflation numbers, and the USA has its latest monthly budget statement. 

Do you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rate? 

If you need to convert currency and would like to discuss the market and ways to protect you against market fluctuations, I am happy to speak to any potential clients that would like a quotation to compare what I can offer with their bank or existing currency broker. On average the rates I can provide are 2 to 3% better than available elsewhere which can mean huge savings when converting a large sum. 

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Which way could Pound/Euro rates go September 2015?

Tuesday 1st September 2015 
Good morning and welcome back to my regular currency updates after the Bank Holiday weekend. While here in the UK it was dismal weather, heavy traffic and only the lack of a James Bond movie to complete the typical August Bank holiday hat-trick, over in Europe it was business as usual and markets were open. 

Numbers released yesterday and again this morning from Europe were better than expected, with both Strong German Retail Sales and a better than expected EU inflation numbers giving the Euro a boost. This has pushed exchange rates lower. This morning we saw the Euro gain further strength due to better than forecast EU jobs numbers. 

The Euro has been getting stronger and stronger recently, as those with an eye on the GBP/EUR rate will have noticed. In the last month the rate has plummeted by over 8 cents, seriously affecting those trying to budget for a Euro purchase. As I outlined in a recent post, the reason for the decline is two-fold. Firstly we have the Pound weakening off due to the expectation of a UK interest rate hike being pushed back. The second reason is a stronger Euro due to a resolution of the Greek debt crisis and a resurgent EU economy that now seems to be growing at a steady pace, with the help from the ECB Stimulus seemingly having the desired effect. 

I do think that rates will eventually recover to €1.40 again, but this is now a medium to long term forecast. In the coming weeks and months, if we continue to see strong economic figures from Europe then the single currency could continue to become more expensive. 

Below I’ve listed what I think could affect exchange rates for the coming months. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to discuss what rates I can offer you, then click here to send a free enquiry today. 

What could affect exchange rates in the first week of September? 

There are various things that change exchange rates, for example: Economic data, Political Uncertainty, Natural Disasters and acts of war. The first of these is the only one that is forecast in advance, and below are the main scheduled releases for the week ahead that I think could affect exchange rates. 

If you would like to have a more detailed chat about how the exchange rate you’re interested in could change in the coming weeks or months, then click here to send me a message and I will be happy to answer any questions you may have about timing your currency purchase. 

Monday 31st August 2015 – Yesterday we saw a raft of positive data from Europe, including strong German Retail Sales and higher than expected inflation data. This has pushed GBP/EUR exchange rates lower as the single currency gained in strength. 

Tuesday 1st September 2015 – More positive data was released from Europe this morning showing that German and Italian unemployment was better than expected. This pulled GBP/EUR down from €1.37 to €1.3560. UK data this morning included mortgage approvals that were better than expected, and credit and PMI numbers that were worse. Later today we will see Canadian GDP figures that could affect GBP/CAD rates, and US Manufacturing and Construction data that might change GBP/USD exchange rates. 

Wednesday 2nd September 2015 – We start the day with Australian GDP figure. Later in the morning we see UK Construction figures, and EU wide inflation numbers. Recent EU data has been good and if this continues to be the case, expect GBP/EUR to drop further. In the afternoon, US Employment data, Non-Farm Productivity and Factory orders could all affect cable. 

Thursday 3rd September 2015 – Lots from Europe today that could change GBP/EUR exchange rates, including Inflation data, and the latest ECB interest rate decision. While no change is expected, the press conference afterwards often contains hints about future policy and so could well affect the Euro. Later in the day, US manufacturing and Services PMI could affect GBP/USD. 

Friday 4th September 2015 – the G20 meeting starts today and so any surprises here could affect various currency pairs. Scheduled releases on the calendar other than this include EU GDP figures which I expect to show a monthly growth of 0.3%. In the USA it’s jobs day and the important Non-Farm Payroll numbers. Regular readers will know that this release is very difficult to forecast. The current expectation is for 220,000 new jobs to have been created. Any more than this, then expect GBP/USD to drop, and vice versa.

Want to talk about which way exchange rates may go, and get a quote for your currency exchange?

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Huge exchange rate volatility GBPEUR, GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

Monday 24th August 2015 
It’s incredibly volatile on the currency markets today. Just look at what has happened with Sterling/Euro rates, falling from 1.38 into 1.34's:
  

 
When I opened the trading floor this morning at 8am, GBP/EUR was at 1.38 where it ended on Friday. We have seen the rate drop throughout the day, and at 2.15pm it plummeted to as low as 1.3455 before recovering back into the €1.35’s. This is a huge drop and other currency pairs are seeing extreme volatility, due to global stock rout and economic uncertainty. 

The FTSE 100 has lost 10%, as investors dumped riskier assets and flocked to currencies seen as safe havens on fears about a slowdown in the Chinese and global economies. The Euro has been a huge benefactor, as usual safe havens like Sterling and the US Dollar are suffering. This is because the global slowdown means interest rates are no longer likely to go up in the UK or US any time soon. 

As the Euro gains significant strength, commodity based currencies like the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar continue to weaken as oil prices and other commodities continue to fall in value. 

Click here to view live charts for all currency pairs.

Sterling/Dollar has gone from $1.56 to $1.58 just today, as the Dollar weakens due to the global turmoil. Just look at some of the movements we've seen during trading today:

GBP/USD rises to $1.58:

GBP/NZD has risen by 10 cents in the last half an hour:

 

GBP/AUD rises from $2.16 to $2.22:

 

A panicked and interesting day on the currency markets. 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, then get in touch to find out more about the currency services I offer. From exchange rates up to 5% better than the bank, to tools such as 'Stop Loss' and 'Limit' orders that can protect you against volatility like we've witnessed today, you could save thousands by simply getting in touch for a quote and a chat about how my service works. 

Click here to send a free enquiry today. 

Why has Pound/Euro dropped to €1.39?

Wednesday 8th July 2015 
In today’s report I’ll look at the latest developments in Greece, the effect of today’s Budget statement on Sterling, and also why the Pound/Euro rate has dropped to €1.39. 

Pound/Euro drops to €1.39 

Since the start of the week, we’ve seen GBP/EUR exchange rates drop from €1.42 to €1.39 today. There are several factors affecting the Sterling/Euro cross at the moment, and after a quick look at the chart I’ll address each one in turn. 

What has caused Pound/Euro rates to fall? 

Sterling had been performing very well recently, rising on the back of some better economic numbers in recent months and the returning of a majority Conservative administration in May's general elections. The Pound had strengthened as a result, however now seems to be on the back foot. Here is my take on why Sterling has weakened off today. 

Greek deal - The Greek situation seems to be coming to a head, with Greece set to submit fresh proposals on Thursday, EU ministers meeting on Saturday to discuss, and a decision on Sunday before a looming deadline for Greece to make a €3bn payment to the IMF. This could well be the last chance for Greece, and many sources are optimistic a deal will finally be done. The uncertainty of the last few months had largely already been priced into the Euro, and so the single currency is starting to regain some strength on the possibility of a resolution. 

UK Budget – today George Osborne delivered his first conservative majority budget. The Pound had weakened this morning, and while there were some very positive things announced, in general it was a budget of austerity, and the fact that they are looking to go harder on austerity and start reducing overall debt soon bodes ill for the immediate outlook for the Pound.UK growth figures have been revised down, House prices are rocketing due to low supply, and this means that while the UK economy is performing very well, it’s not as good as some had hoped several months ago. This has taken the steam out of the Pound. 

Flight to safety – there are real problems in China right now, with the stock markets there in free fall. Investors are wary of any uncertainty, and this combined with Greece and very low commodity prices means investors are placing their funds in ‘safe haven’ currencies like the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The Pound has lost out as people move their funds to safer places riding out the global economic uncertainty. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best rates? 

Exchange rates can move very quickly, and having an expert currency broker on your side can make a huge difference. From exchange rates up to 5% better than the banks, free consultations to discuss your currency requirement and strategy, to various contract types to help protect against adverse exchange rate movements, there are many positives to getting in touch to see how I can help you. 

The first step is to send across an enquiry, and I can then personally get in touch to discuss your requirements, explain how the service works, and provide you a quotation on your rate of exchange. 

Click here to send your enquiry now.

Euro weakens as Greek crisis continues

Pound/Euro rates were trading as high as €1.43 this morning when European markets opened, due to the mess that is the Greek debt crisis. When markets opened the Euro gained back some of its losses, and at the time of writing GBP/EUR is around the €1.41 mark. Let’s take a look at what’s been going on.

Greece fails to agree to bailout deal 

It now looks almost certain that Greece will miss its debt repayment to the IMF tomorrow. The European Central bank have stopped its emergency lending that was keeping the Greek banks afloat, after Greece announced at the weekend that it would hold a referendum on their bailout terms, and this referendum is next Sunday. Greek banks are now closed, and they have implemented capital controls, meaning that people there are limited to taking out only €60.00 per day. 

Last week, talks between Greece and the Eurozone countries over bailout terms ended without an agreement, and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras then called for a referendum on the issue to be held on 5 July. Until then, the Euro is in a complete mess. They may well agree to the deal, and this will simply kick the can further down the road as negotiations begin again. 

The reason the Euro hasn’t fallen further than it has is because there is still a feeling within financial markets that a deal can be done here to keep Greece very much within the European Union. It’s in everyone’s interest to make a deal, especially Greece. However until the referendum is held, there will be huge uncertainty that is likely to reflected in very volatile trading in the Euro. 

Are you worried about how the Greek crisis may affect exchange rates? 

If you need to buy or sell Euros, then the coming week will be an incredibly volatile one for exchange rates. If you need to buy Euros, or perhaps convert Euros back to Sterling, then the current market volatility and lack of liquidity could make huge differences to the exchange rate. 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, then feel free to get in touch with me to discuss how the exchange rate could be affected and the options you can consider to protect yourself against a very choppy currency market. I can also provide a quote on your exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today.

Pound/Euro hits €1.41 on Greek uncertainty

Tuesday 23rd June 2015 
Since my post yesterday, the Pound/Euro exchange rate has risen by over 2 cents, and at the time of writing sits at €1.41: 

The reasons for the gains is there is as yet no agreement over Greece, and no deal to decide whether Greece and its creditors can get past the political barriers in the way of sealing a resolution. 

Euro zone leaders did agree late last night that the institutions representing Greece's creditors should try to wrap up a detailed agreement by Wednesday evening for their finance ministers to approve and present to them on Thursday. 

So, while there us uncertainty, the Euro is weak. Nothing has really changed though – most still expect a last minute deal to be agreed, and if that happens, expect the rate to correct sharply. 

If you need to buy Euros, then consider getting something done while it’s still over €1.40. While nobody can predict which way the rate will go, each and every time we’ve got to these levels in the last 6 months, it hasn’t lasted long and the rate has dropped back away again. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry and find out what rate I can offer on your exchange.

Greece defers debt payment, but Pound/Euro rates fail to recover

Monday 8th June 2015

Greece defers debt payment, but Pound/Euro rates fail to recover

On Friday, it was announced that Greece will defer the payment that was due, and lump it together with a series of other payments due into on single payment of €1.5bn at the end of the month. So given they didn’t make the payment, why didn’t the Euro weaken and GBP/EUR rates rise? 

The news was actually a non-event, and had been widely expected. In fact, the markets seem to think that the delay gives all parties additional negotiating time which could lead to a formal agreement to conclude the bailout. 

The Pound/Euro rate this morning has already fallen nearly a cent, due to the CBI cutting UK growth forecasts, weakening the Pound.

Other EU data in the last few days has been strong, which is stopping the Euro getting any weaker. If the Greeks can indeed come to a conclusion over their debts by the end of this month, expect GBP/EUR rates to fall further. 

Click here to get a quote on Euros

US Jobs data causes GBP/USD rates to fall 

On Friday we saw the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls, which is a measure of new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector (because that’s seasonal). The number was 50,000 more than expected, which is a very robust result for the US. As such, the US Dollar gained strength and pulled GBP/USD rates lower. 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the main scheduled releases that I think could affect exchange rates. Of course ongoing developments in Greece, and the current G7 meeting could also affect things at any time. For a more in depth discussion about what could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, feel free to get in touch with me. 

Monday 8th June 2015 – Today is relatively quiet, with some Industrial Production data and Trade Balance numbers from Germany, which had little effect on exchange rates. Later today we have Retail Sales numbers from the UK that are a good barometer of overall UK economic activity. If good, Sterling may gain. 

Tuesday 9th June 2015 – IN the UK today we have an inflation report. Depending what it contains, it could cause speculation on when UK interest rates may rise, and so could affect the Pound. We also have EU Gross Domestic Product. I’m expecting a quarterly reading of +0.4%. If the actual number is higher than this then GBP/EUR rates could fall. 

Wednesday 10th June 2015 – Today is a very important one for the UK. We have: Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, RICS House Prices and the latest GDP estimate from the NIESR. All of these releases give a good idea how the UK economy is faring, and so simply put, better than expected numbers would strengthen the Pound and vice versa. Further afield, New Zealand has its latest Interest Rate decision and policy press conference, so GBP/NZD could also be affected. 

Thursday 11th June 2015 – Today Australian releases lots of Unemployment numbers along with House prices, so those watching the GBP/AUD rate should watch for today. Over in the United States we have Jobless Claims, and the latest measure of US Retail Sales. If these numbers continue to show an improvement in the US Economy, expect GBP/USD rates to fall. 

Friday 12th June 2015 – A very quiet end to the week, with the only data of note Germany wholesale Prices and US inflation data. 

To discuss your currency requirement, find out what data could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, or to simply get a quote on the exchange rate I can offer you, follow the link below. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today.

Will GBP/EUR go up or down in June 2015?

Wednesday 27th May 2015 
Sterling/Euro has been holding firm well above the €1.40 mark so far this week, on continued concerns Greece may not be able to make its next debt payments. However this may not last for long, as there are indications Greece are about to strike a bail out deal.

The Greeks have 4 different loans to repay in the next 4 weeks, totalling around €1.6 billion. One payment of €300 million is due in 1 week. There has been talk that they could avoid paying back the IMF next week, lump it all together and make one large payment at the end of June, however they still have to negotiate the funding to do this, which is keeping the Euro weak. 

For most of today and yesterday, GBP/EUR was sat at a 3 month high, and only 1 cent below the best it’s been in 8 years. However the rate has been sliding this afternoon, after Greek Prime minister Alexis Tsipras said his government was "close" to a deal after reports the two sides had begun the process of drafting an agreement. 

"We have made many steps. We are on the final stretch towards a positive deal," said Mr Tsipras, without revealing the details of the terms. The Queen’s speech this afternoon also weakened the Pound, pulling exchange rates lower as it outlined the UK referendum on an EU exit. As you can see from the chart below, the exchange rate has dropped by cent, however still remains supported above €1.40, for now: 

Will Pound/Euro go up or down in June2015? 

On the one hand, if it looks like that Greece will be unable to make it’s debt payments, expect rates to remain firmly above €1.40. On the other hand, if they make a deal with it’s creditors that now seems quite likely, the Euro could very quickly regain some strength and pull rates back below €1.40 very quickly indeed. 

Should the Greek situation be resolved, then it’s also likely focus will turn to a possible UK exit from the Eurozone. Many say that should this be a possibility, then there are real risks to the UK economy. This is because our economy here in the UK really relies on inflows of investment and this would likely be diminished should there be uncertainty about us remaining within the EU. 

Do you have a currency transaction to perform? 

Get in touch for a quote and free consultation on the rates and service I can offer you. I can explain what is moving the rate and let you know the different options and contracts you can consider, to ensure you don’t pay more for your currency than necessary. 

With rates up to 5% better than banks can offer, coupled with a range of contract types to protect you against adverse exchange rate movements, I could save you thousands on your currency transfer. 

I can help with bank to bank transfers for amounts £5k + and can source over 35 major international currency pairs including GBP, EUR, USD, AUD, NZD, CHF, CAD, HKD, SEK,NOK, DKK, HUF, TRY, PLN, CZK, SGD, THB, CNH, ZAR. 

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Pound/Euro back to €1.38, will Sterling go up or down?

Wednesday 8th April 2015
Since the Easter break, Pound/Euro rates have seen a very decent recovery, rising from 1.3550 to 1.3800 today, as you can see from the chart below: 

Before the Easter weekend, the Pound had come under pressure due to political uncertainty in the run up to the general election. This had pulled rates down from 1.38 to the 1.35’s. The reason it has gained and recovered these losses is due to better than expected UK economic data. 

Why has the Pound gone up against the Euro? 

This week we have seen figures that show activity in the UK's services sector grew at the fastest pace in more than 6 months. We have also seen the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) forecast UK economic of 0.7% in the three months to March which is better than it has been. We also recently saw the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revise economic growth upwards. We’ll have to wait a few more weeks however before the first official estimate of the UK's economic growth for this year. 

Will Sterling go up or down in the next few weeks? 

All in all the numbers are good, and this has given renewed optimism for the Pound. I still don’t think this will be sustained. We saw a very similar trend a week ago when rates rose to 1.38, but he gains were short lived. As you can also see form the chart above, the rate quickly dropped back 2 cents and the reasons for this remain – political uncertainty on the run up to the general election. 

In addition to election jitters, Sterling could come under pressure this week due to a statement from the Bank of England. They don’t want the Pound to be this strong against the Euro and we may see comments designed to weaken Sterling. Also watch out for Friday when the latest Industrial and Manufacturing production figures are released. The numbers are expected to show growth of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. If the actual numbers are lower than this Sterling will fall against other currencies and vice versa. Also on Friday a GDP estimate could affect the Pound. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

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Pound/Euro falls into €1.36's - will it go back up?

Monday 23rd March 2015 
The last week was an interesting one for the Pound, with exchange rates falling against other currencies. Against the Euro, the recent highs of €1.40+ now seem a distant memory, with the pair falling throughout the week, and the decline has continued this morning with rates dropping into the €1.36’s: 

Why has the Pound fallen against the Euro, and will it go back up? 

There were two main reasons for last weeks continued drop in GBP/EUR rates. The first issue was a UK unemployment release. In the press it was hailed as good news, and indeed unemployment has fallen again. However what was important was that average earnings were actually quite a bit below forecast. This caused investors to sell the Pound and it duly weakened against other currencies. 

The other issue is the Bank of England’s chief economist warning that interest rates might have to be cut to combat low inflation. This is a far cry from this time last year, when the Pound was gaining due to speculation interest rates were going to rise. Things can change quickly in the currency markets, and further talk of cutting rates could bring the Pound lower. 

Bank of England warn against Strong Pound

In fact the strong Pound was discussed in the Bank of England's recent MPC meeting. This should be a worry for anyone hoping the exchange rate may recover back to €1.40. If the BoE are worried about a strong pound, they may take steps to weaken it to avoid it continuing to affect the low inflation numbers.There is also the UK election that’s likely to weigh heavily on the Pound in the coming weeks.

All in all I think those holding out for a return to €1.40 should think whether that's actually likely to happen within their time-frame. In the short to medium term securing something while the rate is still around 10 cents higher than back in January is probably a prudent move. Those selling Euros should use a ‘Stop Loss’ order to allow for further gains in their favour without being exposed to a downturn in the rate. 

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like to discuss your currency requirement with me and obtain a quotation, click here to send a free no obligation enquiry. On average the rates I provide are 3% better than banks and other financial institutions so you could save a significant amount of money.

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What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the scheduled releases for the coming week that I think may affect exchange rates. Remember that other things such as election uncertainty could also change rates at any time without warning. To discuss your currency requirement in more detail, or have a chat about which direction the exchange rate may go, click here to send a free enquiry today. 

Monday 23rd March 2015 – The only data of note today is a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi at 2pm this afternoon. Given they have just started their Quantitative Easing programme, markets will be watching his words closely. Anything deemed as positive could strengthen the Euro and pull GBP/EUR rates lower, and vice versa. We also have EU consumer confidence figures at 3pm this afternoon. 

Tuesday 24th March 2015 – Today is a busy one for UK data, with a rate of inflation numbers being released at 09:30am. I think there is a good chance the numbers will be quite low, which could weaken the Pound against other currencies. We also have Manufacturing numbers from Euro, and Inflation figures from the United States today. 

Wednesday 25th March 2015 – The only UK data today that might affect the Pound is Mortgage Approval numbers at 11am. The USA releases mortgage numbers too today, so GBP/USD could be affected. 

Thursday 26th March 2015 – UK Retail Sales are released at 09:30am, and are a good barometer of overall economic activity and so often affect the Pound. Elsewhere, the USA released Jobless numbers, Germany has a consumer confidence survey, and the Bank of Canada’s governor gives a speech.

Friday 27th March 2015 – Today’s UK release is consumer confidence. Other data today is from the USA – a FED member gives a speech, the latest GDP numbers are released, inflation numbers are released and a consumer sentiment survey is out at 3pm, so lots that could affect Pound/Dollar rates. 

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Pound/Euro rates drop to €1.39

Tuesday 17th March 2015
The spike of last week to €1.4255 appears to have been short lived, with the Pound falling during trading on both Monday and Tuesday, testing the €1.40 level before breaking below it. The drop continued today and at the time of writing the rate is a little above €1.39: 

 

Why has the rate fallen? 

It’s to do with events in Europe, the USA and the UK. Over in the EU the recent QE programme has been well accepted, and this shows confidence that the Eurozone will sort out their issues and return to growth. This view was supported with economic data released this morning, showing better than expected numbers for consumer sentiment, inflation, and employment. The better numbers have given the Euro back some strength, dragging down the GBP/EUR rate. 

Over in the USA, there are nerves ahead the FED’s meeting tomorrow, halting the Dollar buying and in turn Euro selling. The Dollar has weakened a little after weaker than forecast manufacturing, industrial output and housing data. 

Here in the UK, its Budget day tomorrow, and the Conservatives last chance to convince voters they are the only choice to protect the UK economy. Tomorrow is going to be a very important one for the currency markets, so let’s take a closer look at what’s on the agenda. 

Wednesday a very important day for exchange rates 

Tomorrow we will see much that could affect exchange rates. In the UK at 09:30am we have the latest Bank of England announcement, various unemployment numbers. Both of these could affect the Pound significantly better than expected figures could strengthen the Pound and vice versa. 

Later on we have the UK Budget Statement which is of more importance than usual, given there is a UK general election in less than 2 months. There could well be some surprises in this budget to woo voters ahead of the election, and given the economy is going to be the main weapon in the Conservatives arsenal, there is every chance we could see a significant effect on exchange rates for Sterling. 

Over in the United States at 6pm we have the Federal Reserve’s monthly statement. The markets are nervous ahead of this as analysts try to determine when the FED will raise interest rates. This is very important for exchange rates, as flows in and out of the Dollar can have knock on effects for the Pound, the Euro, and other major currencies. 

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Pound/Euro €1.42, Pound/Dollar below $1.50

Wednesday 11th March 2015 
I read today that a pretend €100.00 euro note from a toy shop was accepted by a business in a County Down town in Ireland to purchase a sandwich. In the real world, it almost seems that an actual €100 Euro note isn’t worth much more, given the pounding the single currency has taken in the last few days! 

Since Monday alone, the weakness in the single currency has meant that the Sterling/Euro rate has risen from €1.39 hitting a high of €1.4255 before dropping back away:

Even today we’ve seen a rise from 1.4075 to 1.4250, before levelling back off to where we are now in the low €1.41’s. What an incredibly volatile few days. We are now seeing a new 7 year high on GBP/EUR, and in 2015 alone we’ve seen the exchange rate rise from €1.27 to the current highs above €1.40. To put this into real terms, a €300,000 property abroad is £25,000 cheaper than in January. 

Why has the Pound/Euro rate risen above €1.40? 

The fact the rate has smashed through the 1.40 mark and sustained itself above that level has surprised both me and the markets in general. Usually a technical level like that would act as a barrier. Most analysts agree that it’s due to renewed fears over the Greek position in the Eurozone, and this coupled with the launch of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank (ECB) continued to put downward pressure on the single currency. 

The weakening effect of the ECB’s bond buying programme seems to be more than offsetting the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election. Against the US Dollar, the Euro is now languishing at a 12 year low!

Which way will Pound/Euro rates move now? 

As I’ve said above it’s a surprise that rates broke through €1.40, however now they have it’s likely to stay above that level as it will be acting as a level of support. I now think that while the general election could still weaken the Pound, the risks of this are now offset by Euro zone uncertainty. 

Some forecasts I’ve read suggest €1.45+ later this year, but of course exchange rates depend on market sentiment, and this in turn will be driven by ongoing events in Europe. If you need to buy or sell Euros, don’t just watch the rate hoping things will go your way. I can help you achieve much better rates than the bank, and also have various tools to help you avoid unnecessary drops in the rate, such as Stop Loss orders, Limit Orders and Forward contracts. If you have Euros to buy or sell, then click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today to get a quote, and find out how I can help. 

Pound/Dollar rates drop below $1.50 

In stark contrast to GBP/EUR rates, the Pound/Dollar rate has tumbled below $1.50 today. This is partly due to the Euro sell off. Investors dumping the Euro have been buying the US Dollar, which has given the greenback some strength. 

Will it keep dropping? I think so. The US economy is performing very well, and they are likely to raise interest rates this year. This will strengthen the currency, and while Europe suffers, the Dollar will continue to benefit. So I think we’ll see GBP/USD down in the low $1.40’s this year.  

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Sterling/Euro rates near €1.41!

Tuesday 10th March 2015 
A very brief update this afternoon to say the Pound/Euro rate has risen by almost 2 cents today, pushing through the €1.40 barrier and onwards towards €1.41 – a fresh 7 year high and the best rates have been now since the end of 2007: 

The pound has been gaining all day after the European Central Bank (ECB) began its government bond buying programme earlier this week. This also after the head of the eurozone finance ministers' group called on Greece to "stop wasting time" and engage in serious talks on reform. 

I’ll post a more detailed update tomorrow afternoon, as my time today has been spent on the trading floor assisting clients with Euro purchases. We’re offering trading levels of €1.40+ today and needless to say we have been very busy indeed performing a record number of GBP/EUR trades. 

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Pound/Australian Dollar drops as RBA leaves rates on hold

Tuesday 3rd March 2015
At 3:30am this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision on interest rates. The consensus was that they would cut rates to 2.00%, and that had already been priced into the market as it was widely expected. However, the RBA decided to leave rates on hold at 2.25%. 

Australian Inflation had fallen to a 6 year low, and the lack of Chinese demand had meant everyone thought a rate cut was on the cards in order to boost their cooling economy. It looks however like they are hoping the rate cut in China will boost demand. 

What does this mean for the GBP/AUD exchange rate? 

It caused the Australian Dollar to gain strength, and as you can see from the chart below the GBP/AUD rate fell from $1.98 to the low $1.96’s. You can see the immediate drop the moment the decision was announced: 

What's happening with Sterling/Euro rates?

The Sterling to Euro exchange rate over the last week has continued to strengthen, touching €1.38 over the weekend before dropping back into the €1.37’s. As the European Central Bank starts it’s Quantitative Easing programme in earnest, this and the ongoing saga in Greece continues to drive this currency pair. 

The negotiations over Greece’s debt seem to be making slow progress, and I think as and when a full agreement is put in place, this could start to give the Euro back some strength. We also have the election coming up in a few months which could also cause uncertainty and weakness for Sterling. 

For the moment however, 7 year highs are available for those that need to buy Euros. 

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GBP/EUR drops, GBP/AUD rises, GBP/USD rises - exchange rates 2015

Tuesday 3rd February 2015

GBP/EUR falls into the €1.31’s 

I mentioned in yesterday’s post that the Sterling/Euro rate could be on the way down, and it’s happening quicker than expected. Today we have seen the rate fall a further cent bringing the mid-market level down into the €1.31’s. So, why has the Pound/Euro rate fallen? 

It’s to do with Greece. One of the reasons the rate has risen so well was fears the Greeks could exit the Euro after their recent election was won by the new Greek government, led by the left-wing Syriza party. Today, it seems they have now stopped calling for their debts to be written off, and instead are now proposing the standoff with its official creditors by swapping the debt for new growth-linked bonds. This has been taken as positive news for the Eurozone, and accordingly the Euro has gained strength, pulling rates lower. 

It is impossible to predict of course if the drop will continue, but if the ECB’s Quantitative Easing measures have the desired effect, we could see more Euro strength. Also consider that it’s now forecast that UK interest rates won’t go up until August 2016, so it’s hard to see where any Sterling strength will materialise from. 

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GBP/AUD rises to highest in over 5 years 

The RBA last night surprised the markets and cut the Australian interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. This weakened the Australian Dollar, pushing rates to nearly $1.97 before selling back around the $1.95/$1.96 mark. This is now the best buying level in 5 and a half years, and you can see from the chart below the immediate spike when the announcement was made. 

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GBP/USD rises to $1.51 

This currency pair had recently been testing the $1.50 support level, but a host of poor economic data from the states today has weakened the Dollar, pushing rates a cent higher to $1.51. However as the US are likely to be the first western economy to raise interest rates, we could well still see the rate drop into the $1.40’s. 

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