Wednesday 21st May 2014Good morning. We've seen further gains for the Pound this morning following very strong Retail Sales, and further speculation regarding UK interest rates. In today's report I'll have a look at both of these subjects in addition to what options you can consider if you have a foreign exchange transaction to carry out and want to get the best exchange rates. UK Retail Sales smash forecasts
In my post yesterday I outlined that today’s Retail Sales could affect exchange rates. Markets expected the monthly figure to be 0.5%, but the actual figure came in at a staggering 1.3%, much higher than forecast. As Retail Sales are a good indicator of the economy as a whole, the news has given the Pound a further push and we have seen rates break through the €1.23 level, and at the moment is holding on and looking sustained. This is the best we’ve seen Euro rates now for 18 months. Bank of England contradicts over interest rates
Interest rate rises could be the "only game in town" to deal with an overheating market, says BoE deputy governor Charlie Bean, which contradict what the governor Mark Carney said recently. This speculation on when interest rates may rise has also boosted Sterling. It will be interesting to see if this spike above €1.23 will be sustained, or if it will drop back away as it has done in recent months. Will rates go up or down? When should you buy your currency?
Nobody can predict the market unfortunately, but with an understanding of the tools available to you, you can ensure you get the best rate possible and be protected against rates moving against you. If you are converting Pounds to another currency – the rate is the best in 18 months which is fantastic. It could go higher, but you don’t want to hold out for an inch and risk losing out on the current levels. What you can do is place a Stop Loss order, which means you are protected if rates fall back away, but you can still take advantage should the rate move in your favour. If you are selling currency back to Pounds – it seems Sterling is going from strength to strength, and the more likely an interest rate rise is, the worse the rate will get for you. A forward contract allows you to fix the rate now for up to 2 years, even if you don’t have all your funds available to convert now. Whatever your requirement, I can help you get the best possible exchange rates, and discuss your options to help you make the most of your currency.Click here to get in touch with me now and find out how I can help.
Alastair Archbold
Tuesday 20th May 2014Good afternoon. We've seen the Pound rise this morning, touching a 16 month high (€1.23) against the Euro again, after figures showed that inflation rose more than expected last month. Despite the increase in the CPI inflation measure, the rate is still below the Bank of England's 2% target for inflation. 
Last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said he expected the rate of inflation to remain below its target for the next two years; however the slight rise does slightly increase the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK, which is why Sterling rose. We’ll get further information on this subject tomorrow morning, when the Bank of England releases the minutes to its recent meeting where rates were held. It will show what was discussed and how they voted. I don’t really expect anything new from the minutes and I would be surprised if GBP/EUR pushes through the €1.23 barrier. We’ve seen that level tested a few times recently, but it would take some very impressive UK data to strengthen the Pound enough to push it through that level. Retail Sales numbers are also released tomorrow, and the figures are expected to show a 0.5% increase. A differing figure could affect rates further. Eurozone stimulus still the focus for Pound/Euro rates
The Pound is quite strong at the moment, but the main driving force pushing Sterling/Euro higher is expectation on what the European Central bank will do to combat deflation. There has been lots of talk recently of possible stimulus measures in the EU. If this happens then the Euro could weaken further, which would cause GBP/EUR rates to go up. However one ECB member recently said that asset purchases were “one of a string of measures being considered”, adding to the debate on what the bank is likely to do at its meeting at the start of June. If they do announce stimulus, expect Pound/Euro to push higher. If they don’t, then I think we’ll see rates drop back away again. Pound/Australian Dollar
GBP/AUD has also risen in the last few days, pushing up to $1.82. A year ago it was down at $1.45 so the current levels are quite attractive to those that need to buy Aussie Dollars. Again this is partly due to a strong Pound, but also a weakening Aussie. One of the country’s biggest exports is Iron Ore, and we’ve seen a drop in the price of this commodity. Get in touch for the Best Currency Rates
If you would like a quote on the exchange rates I can provide, or simply have a chat about what is moving the markets to help you to decide when to fix your rate, then get in touch with me. I work for one of the UK’s leading independent foreign exchange brokerages, and have 15 years experience in this sector. I can source rates of exchange that are usually much better than those offered by banks and other brokers. Click here to get in touch Alastair Archbold
Friday 16th May 2014
Good afternoon. The Pound has steadily recovered this morning, climbing up to €1.2265 against the Euro and $1.68 vs the US Dollar. There hasn’t been any real data of note from the UK, and the gains for Sterling really just reflect the optimism surrounding the UK economy at the moment.
Rates have failed to break through the €1.23 barrier this week however, as the Pound is being kept in check with this week’s news that the Bank of England will only raise interest rates gradually when they eventually decide to start putting them up in 2015.
For this with Pounds to covert, then GBP/EUR is around a 16th month high, and GBP/USD just below a 5 year high – great levels for those needing to buy foreign currency.
If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to see what rate I can offer you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry.
Below is an outline of all next week’s data that I think will affect exchange rates. Have a great weekend.
Alastair Archbold
Next week’s economic data releases that could affect exchange rates
Monday 19th May 2014
It’s a very quiet start to the trading week with no significant economic releases.
Tuesday 20th May 2014
Lots of data from the UK today including various measures of inflation, and the latest Retail Sales numbers. These are a good overall barometer of economic activity, and the number is expected at 2.5%. If it’s higher than the Pound may make some gains.
Wednesday 21st May 2014
Today we have the all-important BoE MPC minutes. These will show what was discussed at the most recent meeting where they left interest rates on hold. If they hint that rates are only going to rise gradually, then Sterling could suffer.
Elsewhere we have the FOMC minutes and a speech by the FED chair Janet Yellen, so GBP/USD cold also be affected today.
Thursday 22nd May 2014
Another important day for Sterling, as we have the latest Mortgage Approval numbers and GDP figures. I expect this to show the economy has grown +0.8% on the quarter.
EU data today comprises manufacturing figures from Germany and the whole EU. Over in the USA we have the latest Jobless Claims, inflation numbers, and Home sales figures.
Friday 23rd May 2014
A quiet end to the week with nothing of note from the UK. Germany, the EU’s largest economy releases its latest GDP figures however, so GBP/EUR could change in value.
We have some Canadian Inflation numbers releases this afternoon, along with the USA’s latest Homes Sales figures.
Wednesday 14th May 2014 Sterling has fallen from a 16 month high against the Euro this morning, following the Bank of England inflation report. When the market opened this morning, GBP/EUR rates were sat at 1.2300, which is the highest we have seen since January 2013. Pound falls on BoE Inflation report
We had various figures from the UK this morning at 09:30am, most of which were quite good; Unemployment has fallen to 6.8%, and the Bank of England raised its growth forecasts. The claimant count number was slightly worse than expected which started the slide in rates. At 10:30 am the Bank of England releases its quarterly inflation report, and this was then followed by a press conference by the governor Mark Carney, in which he said the economy had "edged closer" to the point when interest rates would need to "gradually rise". But he reiterated that increases would be "gradual" and that the rate "may stay at historically low levels for some time". The Bank also said there was still a significant amount of "slack" in the economy, meaning that it was not growing to its full potential because of underinvestment. As you can see in the chart above, the Pound has fallen on today's news. Sterling had been rising on expectations that the Bank would signal rates were likely to rise before the election, but it fell sharply against other currencies after the Governor's comments. Despite the more bullish forecasts, and a "modest narrowing" of the amount of spare capacity in the economy, Mr. Carney said "significant slack" remained in the economy, meaning it could afford to keep interest rates at their record low for longer. It is the fact that rates are now expected to remain low for some time that has taken the steam out of the Pound’s rise and caused exchange rates to dip back away. When should you fix your exchange rate?
Timing is everything in the currency markets, and converting your funds at the right time can make a huge difference to what you can achieve. If you need to convert Pounds to another currency, or convert a currency back in to Sterling, then why not get in touch with me to discuss your options. I can discuss what is happening with the market, and explain the options you have available with regards to when to fix your rate, and which type of contract suits your requirements. We can also help you achieve exchange rates that are much better than banks and other financial institutions can offer. With the Pound trading very close to a 16 month high, it’s a good time to have a chat about your options. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry now. Alastair Archbold
Thursday 8th May 2014 Sterling/Euro initially slipped as low as 1.2120 this afternoon, before soaring back and smashing through the €1.22 level, after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi gave a speech weakening the Euro. At the time or writing rates seem to have levelled off at €1.2238 – around the best it has been since January 2013, so great news for Euro buyers. In today’s post I’ll look at the actions of the central banks here in the UK and in the Eurozone, analyse how it has affected exchange rates, and where Pound rates may head in the coming weeks and months. Bank of England (BoE) takes no action as expected
UK interest rates have been held at the record low of 0.5% for another month by the Bank of England, as we all expected them to do. They also made no change in their bond buying stimulus programme. 
So, no surprises then from the BoE today. Much of the Pound’s strength this year are due to the fact most economists think they will start raising interest rates next year, due to recent evidence that the UK economic recovery is strengthening. Next week's Inflation Report should provide a little more insight into what’s will happen with interest rates, and I think this will point to rates remaining very low for some time yet, so I don’t think there is any more strength to come from Sterling in the short term. European Central Bank cause GBP/EUR rates to rise
At lunchtime, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it has also kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.25%. Persistently low inflation across the euro-bloc has prompted growing calls that the ECB should cut rates to head off deflation risks, and there was an outside risk of this happening. However due to recent economic data from the EU pointing to a stronger recovery and improved financing conditions, no action was taken. As you can see from the chart below this initially caused GBP/EUR rates to drop to 1.2120, however as the chart illustrates the dip was not to last… Shortly after the decision, the ECB president spoke at a press conference saying that the ECB was "comfortable with acting next time", raising expectations that the bank could alter policy in June and sending the value of the euro lower and therefore cheaper to buy. At the time of writing GBP/EUR rates sit at €1.2220, around the highest it has been in 16 months. Will Pound/Euro keep going higher or drop back away?
The coming week will determine whether the GBP/EUR rate can now sustain itself above the €1.22 level, or whether the recent trend will repeat itself whereby it drops back away within a few days. This is the strongest indication yet that Draghi will do something next month, and if the markets believe this then there is every chance rates could stay above this level. Personally I expect it to drop back away again, purely as that has been the trend throughout 2014, so Euro buyers may want to strike while the rate is good. There is no way of predicting what exchange rates will do, however with a good broker on your side to explain what is moving the rate, what different options and contract types you can consider to protect you against the rate moving the wrong way, then you can save a considerable sum. Click here to find out how I can help you with your currency exchange.
Tuesday 6th May 2014Good morning. Markets re-open today after the Bank Holiday Break. Currently Sterling/Euro remains around €1.2165 which is close to a 16 month high. Sterling/Dollar has risen further this morning up to $1.6950, a 5 year high.
As usual for the start of the week, today I will run through the main data releases that you should keep an eye on if you're looking for the best exchange rates.Weekly Economic Data that may affect exchange rates
Monday 5th May 2014 – UK markets were closed for the May bank holiday, however the market will be reacting this morning to various EU releases from Monday – Investor Confidence, Inflation data and Growth forecasts. Tuesday 6th May 2014 – All markets are open again this morning, but UK data is fairly light with only some minor inflation numbers. The EU also fires a salvo of inflation figures into the mix, along with the latest retail sales figures so GBP/EUR could well be a little volatile today. Over in the states we have Trade Balance figures. Lastly New Zealand has unemployment data which may affect GBP/NZD rates. Wednesday 7th May 2014– A very quiet today with only German Factory orders of note. Investors however will be positioning ahead of tomorrow’s round of central bank decisions – the risk averse amongst you will want to consider taking your positions ahead of Thursday’s data. Thursday 8th May 2014 – Today we have UK and EU central bank decisions. We think that rates will be left on hold, but watch for the all-important comments that accompany the decision. If the ECB hint at monetary easing it could cause weakness in the Euro. This is the main release of the week that will drive Sterling/Euro rates. Elsewhere, the US has jobs data and New Zealand releases Retail Sales. Friday 9th May 2014 – Europe fires the first shots today with German Import and Export data at 7am. The UK returns fire with our Trade Balance numbers a few hours later, and Industrial and manufacturing numbers are released at the same time. So, lots from the UK today that will give an idea how the UK economy is performing, so expect a choppy day for the Pound. At 3pm the latest UK GDP estimate is the last major release of the week, but will be watched with keen interest. Find out more about the rates and service I offer
If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Monday 1st May 2014 It’s been a little quiet on the markets today, with an EU bank holiday meaning trade is thin, and economic statistics are also thin. We have seen Sterling rise a little this morning however after UK Consumer credit and net lending figures were quite a bit higher than expected. This means if people are borrowing more money, there is in turn more confidence in the economy, hence the spike for Sterling. This has pushed GBP/EUR close to €1.22 and GBP/USD to $1.69. Today we will have a look at what might happen to exchange rates in the coming weeks. Remember also that if you need to convert currency, perhaps to buy or sell property abroad, then get in touch with me for a free quote and a chat about which way the rate could move. I can source excellent rates of exchange that could save you a considerable sum.What next for Pound/Euro rates?
Sterling/Euro is trading around the best it’s been since January 2013. It’s being kept strong by robust UK data, and the threat of monetary easing in the Eurozone. Next Thursday, we have the latest decision by the European Central Bank. While I don’t think that they will announce any change to interest rates, in the press conference afterwards they may well hint at some sort of monetary stimulus such as Quantitative Easing or a negative deposit interest rate. If they do, then this could well weaken the Euro a bit and push the rate higher. For those buying Euros, I think that’s your best hope of an increase, and I can’t see it going too much higher, as the Bank of England have also warned that if the GBP/EUR rate goes too high, it will hurt the UK recovery and so they may in turn take action to weaken the Pound. Contact me to discuss GBP/EUR or EUR/GBP. What next for Pound/Dollar rates?
It’s been a little quiet on the markets today, with an EU bank holiday meaning trade is thin, and economic statistics are also thin.
Sterling/Dollar rates are trading at their highest level in 5 years! Again, much of this is to do with the strength in the Pound, and weakness in the US Dollar. This week US growth figures came in at 0.1% - it was forecast to be 1.2% so it’s much worse than thought. This has caused the Dollar to weaken, become cheaper to buy, and push rates above $1.69 today briefly. If you need USD, it would be wise to consider fixing the rate while it’s so good. Their economy will recover at some point, and when it does expect them to taper their stimulus measures which could give the Dollar back to strength and bring rates back down. How long this will take to happen though is impossible to know. Contact me to discuss GBP/USD or USD/GBP
Getting the best exchange rates
The chances are that if you are reading this blog, you are keen to know what is moving the exchange rate, which way it may go in the future, and also that you want to get the best possible rate. I update this blog to keep people up to date with exchange rates in simple terms. In this way I hope I can help people decide when to fix their rate. I work for one of the UK’s leading foreign exchange brokerages and have over 8 years’ experience as a currency broker. So if you need the best rates, click below to get in touch with me for a quote to see how much I can save you on your exchange. Send me a free no obligation enquiry by clicking here.Alastair Archbold
In my post yesterday I outlined that today’s Retail Sales could affect exchange rates. Markets expected the monthly figure to be 0.5%, but the actual figure came in at a staggering 1.3%, much higher than forecast. 
Nobody can predict the market unfortunately, but with an understanding of the tools available to you, you can ensure you get the best rate possible and be protected against rates moving against you. 
