Pound/Euro has fallen 8 cents since last month

Monday 28th September 
The last week has been an interesting one for currencies, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate fluctuating between €1.39 and €1.35. Since last month, it's now fallen 8 cents. This means purchasing €350,000.00 today is costing you around £15,000.00 more than last month, which really illustrates how important it is to get your timing right, and have tools in place like 'Stop Loss' orders to protect against sharp drops in the market like we have seen recently.

Here's how the GBP/EUR rate has moved in the last 2 months:

What has been causing the volatility in currency prices? 

As I explained in my last post, the main reason for the fall in GBP/EUR rates last week was due to a strengthening of the Euro, which has now become more expensive to buy. The European Central Bank opted not to extend their stimulus programme, and have also said interest rates will not be cut. This has supported the Euro and is the main reason for rates dropping away. 

Also the global economic uncertainty has meant that the UK are no longer likely to tighten monetary policy, and this has halted the rise in the value of Sterling. I’d expect the USA to raise interest rates later this year, and the UK may follow them, but not until the latter part of 2016 in my opinion. (The rumour of an interest rate hike generally strengthens a currency due to the higher return on offer for investors).

What could happen to exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the main data releases I think will affect currency rates for the coming week. For those looking at GBP/EUR, there are lots of inflation figures from the UK and EU, and also UK GDP figures that could affect the rate. 

For GBP/USD, look for hints on interest rates from FED member speeches later today. 

If you have a currency transfer to make, would like a quote, or simply a chat about what is moving exchange rates, click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

Monday 28th September 2015 – Very quiet other that data from the USA – Inflation numbers, Home Sales and Speeches by FED members could all affect GBP/USD. So far rates have risen today, but the general trend in Pound/Dollar rates is likely to be down 

Tuesday 29th September 2015 – There is a speech by Bank of England governor Mark Carney, and he may give clues on UK interest rates that could affect the Pound. Also in the UK today we see Mortgage approval numbers and a measure of Consumer Confidence. Elsewhere, Germany has inflation figures, the USA also releases Consumer Confidence figures. 

Wednesday 30th September 2015 – We have the latest GDP figures today that could affect Sterling. European data includes Germany releases Retail Sales numbers and Unemployment figures, along with EU wide unemployment figures and inflation. The FED’s Janet Yellen gives another speech – watch for any hint on US monetary policy. 

Thursday 1st October 2015 – There is data on manufacturing today from Germany, Europe and the UK, in addition to an ECB monetary policy meeting, all of which could affect GBP/EUR rates. The USA has Manufacturing and Construction data due in the afternoon. 

Friday 2nd October 2015 – We end the week with Jobs day in the USA, with Non-Farm Payrolls one of the key releases that could affect the US Dollar this week. The EU releases inflation numbers. 

If you would like to know how any of the above data could affect exchange rates, or would like to get a quote for your currency exchange to compare with your bank or existing broker, then click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

I will get in touch with you personally, and often better rates available at banks or other currency brokers by as much as 3%, so it's certainly worth getting in touch to see what I can do for you.

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Pound/Euro rises to €1.39

Tuesday 22nd September 2015 
It’s been an interesting start to the week on the foreign exchange markets. Despite little economic data being released yesterday, the Sterling/Euro rate rose steadily throughout the day before settling around €1.3850. The upwards march continued this morning, with rates touching €1.39, before figures released at 09:30am this morning showed that UK government borrowing was much higher than expected. This halted the steady rise and at the time of writing, GBP/EUR sits just above €1.38: 

UK Interest Rates 

Last week the Bank of England’s chief economist indicated that an interest rate cut could be on the cards. I mentioned in my last post that I thought that unlikely, and today the chancellor George Osborne also indicated that the next move in rates is likely to be a rise. However, I still think that this is still quite a long way off. Indeed the Bank of England deputy governor has suggested that disinflationary forces from abroad meant there was no immediate need to raise interest rates, so I expect this to halt any rise in Sterling. 

European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi to speak tomorrow 

Tomorrow at 2pm, Mario Draghi, the ECB president gives a speech. There is a good chance he will talk about how the EU economy is doing, and I think this could have an impact on Sterling/Euro rates. On the one hand, he might hint that further Quantitative Easing is needed in order to boost the economy, and there are also rumours he may float the idea of an interest rate cut. If one or both of these things happen, then I would expect the Euro to weaken, pushing GBP/EUR rates back towards the €1.40 level. If however neither of things are mentioned and he is positive about the economy, then we could see the pair drop back away. 

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What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 3rd August 2015 
Good morning and welcome to a new week of updates about exchange rates. In today’s post, I’m going to take a look at the economic data releases for the week ahead that could affect exchange rates. Currently GBP/EUR sits a little above €1.42, and GBP/USD sits just below $1.56. 

What could affect Sterling exchange rates this week? 

There are lots of things that can change the value of a currency. Regular readers will know that in recent times it’s been events in Greece, and political situations like the Scottish referendum and UK election. Usually however, it’s fundamental data such as unemployment figures and interest rates. 

We already know well in advance what is going to be released using calenders such as this one, and analysts give their forecasts as to what they think the results will be. These forecasts are already priced into the value of a currency, so what’s important is not necessarily whether the figure is good or bad for an economy, but whether the figures are better or worse than expected. For example UK unemployment could fall, but that could still weaken the Pound if it didn't fall as much as had been expected!

Below I have listed this week’s main fundamental data releases that I think could affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to get a quote or simply discuss what could affect exchange rates in the coming weeks, contact me today by clicking here. 

This week’s data releases 

Monday 3rd August 2015 – This morning we have already seen Inflation numbers from Europe and Germany which were better than expected, which strengthened the Euro and pulled GBP rates down slightly. This afternoon those with an eye on GBP/USD rates should watch for the US Manufacturing PMI Numbers. They are expected to show a reading of 53.5 so a figure higher than this could cause Sterling/Dollar to drop. 

Tuesday 4th August 2015 – The main UK release today is PMI Construction which shows business conditions in the UK construction sector and can affect the value of Sterling. Elsewhere the main news is from down under. Australia has Trade Balance figures and an interest rate decision. They’ve already cut rates twice this year to 2% so I don’t expect any further cut, but if they do expect GBP/AUD to rise. In New Zealand we have unemployment data figures that could affect GBP/NZD rates. 

Wednesday 5th August 2015 – GBP/EUR today could be affect by data from Europe – Markit Services and Retail Sales. The latter is expected to show a rise of 1.9%. If it’s lower than this, Pound/Euro could rise and vice versa. Over in the United States we have Inflation, Manufacturing and Services data, in addition to Employment numbers and the latest Trade balance figures. Lots to chew on for investors, which could affect GBP/USD rates. 

Thursday 6th August 2015 – Today is the most important one for Sterling, as we have a lot of data for Britain – Industrial Production, an NIESR GDP Estimate, and the all-important Bank of England meeting. It’s highly unlikely there will be a change to interest rates, but the minutes will make an interesting read, and also the Speech by Mark Carney, BoE governor at 12:45pm is also very important. If the minutes or the speech contain any comments hinting at an interest rate rise later in the year, expect the Pound to rise against other currencies. 

Friday 7th August 2015 – The UK is a little quieter today, but there are Trade balance figures released at 09:30am. Germany also has Trade balance figures, so GBP/EUR could be affected today. Over in the USA we have Jobs data including the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers. This usually creates quite a bit of volatility for GBP/USD rates as the figure often differs significantly from estimates. GBP/CAD could also have a choppy day today due to Canadian Unemployment figures and inflation numbers.  

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Greece defers debt payment, but Pound/Euro rates fail to recover

Monday 8th June 2015

Greece defers debt payment, but Pound/Euro rates fail to recover

On Friday, it was announced that Greece will defer the payment that was due, and lump it together with a series of other payments due into on single payment of €1.5bn at the end of the month. So given they didn’t make the payment, why didn’t the Euro weaken and GBP/EUR rates rise? 

The news was actually a non-event, and had been widely expected. In fact, the markets seem to think that the delay gives all parties additional negotiating time which could lead to a formal agreement to conclude the bailout. 

The Pound/Euro rate this morning has already fallen nearly a cent, due to the CBI cutting UK growth forecasts, weakening the Pound.

Other EU data in the last few days has been strong, which is stopping the Euro getting any weaker. If the Greeks can indeed come to a conclusion over their debts by the end of this month, expect GBP/EUR rates to fall further. 

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US Jobs data causes GBP/USD rates to fall 

On Friday we saw the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls, which is a measure of new jobs created excluding the agricultural sector (because that’s seasonal). The number was 50,000 more than expected, which is a very robust result for the US. As such, the US Dollar gained strength and pulled GBP/USD rates lower. 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the main scheduled releases that I think could affect exchange rates. Of course ongoing developments in Greece, and the current G7 meeting could also affect things at any time. For a more in depth discussion about what could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, feel free to get in touch with me. 

Monday 8th June 2015 – Today is relatively quiet, with some Industrial Production data and Trade Balance numbers from Germany, which had little effect on exchange rates. Later today we have Retail Sales numbers from the UK that are a good barometer of overall UK economic activity. If good, Sterling may gain. 

Tuesday 9th June 2015 – IN the UK today we have an inflation report. Depending what it contains, it could cause speculation on when UK interest rates may rise, and so could affect the Pound. We also have EU Gross Domestic Product. I’m expecting a quarterly reading of +0.4%. If the actual number is higher than this then GBP/EUR rates could fall. 

Wednesday 10th June 2015 – Today is a very important one for the UK. We have: Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production, RICS House Prices and the latest GDP estimate from the NIESR. All of these releases give a good idea how the UK economy is faring, and so simply put, better than expected numbers would strengthen the Pound and vice versa. Further afield, New Zealand has its latest Interest Rate decision and policy press conference, so GBP/NZD could also be affected. 

Thursday 11th June 2015 – Today Australian releases lots of Unemployment numbers along with House prices, so those watching the GBP/AUD rate should watch for today. Over in the United States we have Jobless Claims, and the latest measure of US Retail Sales. If these numbers continue to show an improvement in the US Economy, expect GBP/USD rates to fall. 

Friday 12th June 2015 – A very quiet end to the week, with the only data of note Germany wholesale Prices and US inflation data. 

To discuss your currency requirement, find out what data could affect the exchange rate you’re looking at, or to simply get a quote on the exchange rate I can offer you, follow the link below. 

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What could affect exchange rates this week?

Monday 1st December 2014 
Good afternoon and welcome to a new month. The currency markets have been relatively stable over the last week, with GBP/EUR remaining around the €1.26 mark, and GBP/USD in the $1.57’s. 

In today’s post I will list the economic data releases for the coming week that I think could affect exchange rates. 

This week’s economic data releases 

Tuesday 2nd December – Today is quite light for UK data, with Construction PMI the only release of note. We’re expecting the number to be 61.2 so anything above this could give the Pound some strength. In Europe, Spanish employment numbers are released. Australia has its latest building numbers, along with an Interest Rate statement from the RBA. Over in the United States there are 2 speeches by FED members, and also the chair Janet Yellen, so GBP/USD could be affected. 

Wednesday 3rd December – This could be an important one for Sterling, as we have Services PMI and the Autumn forecast Statement. GBP/EUR could also be affected by today’s EU Retail Sales figures and some EU inflation numbers. Most data is from the states today though; Manufacturing, Employment and speeches by FED members. 

Thursday 4th December – We have the latest interest rate decisions from the UK and EU today. While I expect no movement in the actual rate, speeches by the Banks governors afterwards could well affect Sterling/Euro exchange rates. We also have further US employment numbers this afternoon 

Friday 5th December – We end the week with a host of US data including Trade Balance numbers and Non-Farm Payrolls. These 2 releases often cause volatility in the exchange rate for GBP/USD. 

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GBP/EUR and GBP/USD forecast outlook

Tuesday 30th September 2014 
Good afternoon. It’s been a busy day in the currency markets, with Pound/Euro rising to €1.2850 but Pound/Dollar dropping to $1.62. in today’s post I will take a detailed look at both these currency pairs, what is causing the rate to move, and where I think rates could head in the coming months. 

Pound/Euro 

As you can see from the chart below, we have seen this exchange rate rise by a point in the last 24 hours. On the one hand the upwardly revised UK growth forecast has given Sterling a slight boost, but it was mostly to do with a weakening Euro. 

Eurozone inflation slipped again in September, with prices rising at their slowest rate in nearly five years. It is the lowest level for eurozone inflation since October 2009, adding to fears of a deflationary spiral. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures in an attempt to kick-start the eurozone economy. 

Due to this poor Eurozone data the Euro has weakened and become cheaper to purchase. 

Which way could GBP/EUR head now? 

In light of the latest economic data from Europe, I think it’s quite likely they will have to now pursue a Quantitative Easing programme to stimulate the EU economy. If this happens then the Euro will weaken further. Also, as we get closer to UK interest rates going up, this could strengthen the Pound. So looking at these 2 events on their own would suggest Pound/Euro rates will go higher, although I think this will be into 2015. 

If you need to buy Euros, you could either fix the rate now while it’s close to a 6 year high. Alternatively if you wanted to gamble on rates going higher due to the reasons above, then you should place a ‘Stop Loss’ order to protect you in case the rates drops back away. This has happened several times this year, and with UK political uncertainty likely to affect the Pound next year, could this limit any gains for the Pound? 

Click here to discuss your Pound/Euro or Euro/Pound requirement and get a free quote 

Pound/Dollar 

This currency pair has fallen by a point today to $1.62. Part of this is due to the weak Euro, and investors dumping the single currency to buy the Dollar, strengthening the greenback. Rates have now dropped from $1.72 to $1.62 in the last few months. 

Which was could GBP/USD head now? 

The US economy is now performing very well, as is the UK economy. As the US winds up its stimulus programme, the greenback will likely gain further strength, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop below $1.60 in the coming months. 

Summary 

It’s impossible to know which way rates will go, and I think interest rates and when they will go up in the UK will determine whether exchange rates rise or fall in the next few months. Regardless of which currency you need to buy or sell, having a good currency broker that can guide you through the process and secure you very good exchange rates can save you thousands of Pounds. 

Click here to send me a free enquiry today. I can provide you a quote, explain the options you have depending on your particular requirement and timeframe, and explain what is moving the currency markets. In this way you can make an informed decision on when to fix your rate, and get a quote to compare with your bank or existing currency broker. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. 

Pound up, Euro weakens, Dollar strengthens - forecast 2014

Tuesday 26th August 2014 
Good morning and welcome back after the long weekend we enjoyed in the UK, despite the dismal weather! The Pound/Euro rate however is anything but dismal, having recovered today when UK markets opened. This is more to do with weakness in the Euro that I shall explain in a moment, in addition to looking at why Pound/Dollar rates dropped. I will also outline what data released we’re looking at this week that could affect exchange rates. 

Sterling/Euro rates up, but not due to the Pound 

Over the weekend there was a meeting with the US and EU central bank chiefs in the United States. There were some interesting comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi that has caused the Euro to weaken. 

Unlike the UK, Europe is still struggling to grow and they are facing a problem of very low inflation. Usually you would lower interest rates to combat this, but rates in the EU are already at a low of 0.15% so they can’t cut it any further. So what I expect them to do is look at other stimulus measures, much like the Quantitative Easing we saw in the UK. 

His comments over the weekend hinted at this when he said that they would “use also unconventional instruments to safeguard the firm anchoring of inflation expectations over the medium- to long-term.” Adding that they would “use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability over the medium term.” 

Markets have taken this as the clearest signal yet that they may indeed have to create money to pump money into the economy. If so this would weaken the Euro, and this has started to get priced into the market and the Euro has weakened off, causing the Pound/Euro rate to recover back towards to €1.26 level.

Do you need to buy Euros, or convert Euros to Sterling? Click here to compare our rates. 

Pound/Dollar rates drop 

Again this was not due to Sterling, it was due to the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen being very positive about the US economy, their growth and unemployment levels, and the fact they will continue winding up their stimulus program, all of which points to the USA raising interest rates next year. As a result, the Pound/Dollar rate dropped as the US Dollar became more expensive to buy. 

This week’s data releases 

Tuesday 26th August – today has been quiet in terms of economic data, with only US figures of note. We’ve seen good orders higher than expected compounding the strength of the US Dollar. 

Wednesday 27th August – Yet another quiet day, and while there are some minor releases, there is nothing that I think should affect exchange rates. 

Thursday 28th August - It is quiet again in the UK with nothing of interest other than some consumer confidence figures at midnight. In the EU however, Germany (Europe’s largest economy) has a raft of unemployment and inflation data. Over in the United States we have Gross Domestic Product figures, Jobless Claims and Home sales, all of which could affect GBP/USD rates. 

Friday 29th August – The only UK release is a measure of business investment, but with a lack of other UK data this week it may have a larger effect than normal. Elsewhere we have EU inflation and unemployment, Canadian GDP figures, and income and expenditure figures from the USA. 

Are looking to get the best possible exchange rates? 

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It is free to make an enquiry and get a quote, and you could save thousands of Pounds. 

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Sterling/Euro & Sterling/Dollar - Best Exchange Rates

Thursday 19th June 2014 
The currency markets have stabilised somewhat, with Pound/Euro now stuck at €1.25 and failing to be able to break through that resistance level. Pound/Dollar however has risen to a 5 year high of $1.70+ following yesterday’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED). In today’s post I’ll take a look at these 2 currency pairs, and explain how you can take advantage of these excellent rates even if you don’t need to transfer your currency for some time. 

Sterling/Euro 

We saw the Pound hit a 20 month high against the Euro this week of 1.2562, however some poor UK data has now brought the rate back down to 1.25. This was due to UK Retail Sales that were lower than expected. 

The main reason rates are so good are the rumour UK interest rates are going to go up this year, and the fact the EU have recently cut their interest rate. (Higher interest rates or the rumour of higher rates tend to boost a currency due to the higher return for investors.) 

This interest rate speculation has now mostly been priced into the market, which is why the current level is now stuck at €1.25. If you need to buy Euros, then consider locking in the rate while it’s so good. It could creep higher of course, but you don’t want to hold out for an inch and risk losing a mile. 

Sterling/US Dollar 

Today rates have risen to their highest since 2009, and the level is now sat comfortable above $1.70. Last night the FED announced a further tapering of their Quantitative Easing programme. Usually you would expect this to strengthen the currency and bring GBP/USD rates down, however it was what was not said that the markets focused on. 

There was no hint or discussion of interest rates going up any time soon, and they also cut their growth forecasts, resulting in the USD weakening making it cheaper to buy, pushing the exchange rate to the highest in many years. 

How to take advantage of the current exchange rates 

If you need to convert currency, the current levels are very attractive indeed. Many of my clients have been taking advantage of these levels by using a ‘Forward Contract’. 

This works by fixing today’s rate of exchange for up to 2 years, but you only lodge 10% of the total you want to convert. In this way you can guarantee a rate while protecting yourself against the market dropping away. This helps you to budget effectively, while retaining the majority of your capital. 

To discuss this type of contract, or to obtain a quote on the currency exchange you need to perform, click below to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. I can provide rates that are up to 5% better than banks or other brokers. 

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Best Exchange Rates for GBP/EUR & GBP/AUD

Tuesday 20th May 2014
Good afternoon. We've seen the Pound rise this morning, touching a 16 month high (€1.23) against the Euro again, after figures showed that inflation rose more than expected last month. Despite the increase in the CPI inflation measure, the rate is still below the Bank of England's 2% target for inflation. 



Last week, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said he expected the rate of inflation to remain below its target for the next two years; however the slight rise does slightly increase the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK, which is why Sterling rose. 

We’ll get further information on this subject tomorrow morning, when the Bank of England releases the minutes to its recent meeting where rates were held. It will show what was discussed and how they voted. I don’t really expect anything new from the minutes and I would be surprised if GBP/EUR pushes through the €1.23 barrier. 

We’ve seen that level tested a few times recently, but it would take some very impressive UK data to strengthen the Pound enough to push it through that level. Retail Sales numbers are also released tomorrow, and the figures are expected to show a 0.5% increase. A differing figure could affect rates further. 

Eurozone stimulus still the focus for Pound/Euro rates 

The Pound is quite strong at the moment, but the main driving force pushing Sterling/Euro higher is expectation on what the European Central bank will do to combat deflation. There has been lots of talk recently of possible stimulus measures in the EU. If this happens then the Euro could weaken further, which would cause GBP/EUR rates to go up. 

However one ECB member recently said that asset purchases were “one of a string of measures being considered”, adding to the debate on what the bank is likely to do at its meeting at the start of June. If they do announce stimulus, expect Pound/Euro to push higher. If they don’t, then I think we’ll see rates drop back away again. 

Pound/Australian Dollar 

GBP/AUD has also risen in the last few days, pushing up to $1.82. A year ago it was down at $1.45 so the current levels are quite attractive to those that need to buy Aussie Dollars. Again this is partly due to a strong Pound, but also a weakening Aussie. One of the country’s biggest exports is Iron Ore, and we’ve seen a drop in the price of this commodity. 

Get in touch for the Best Currency Rates 

If you would like a quote on the exchange rates I can provide, or simply have a chat about what is moving the markets to help you to decide when to fix your rate, then get in touch with me. 

I work for one of the UK’s leading independent foreign exchange brokerages, and have 15 years experience in this sector. I can source rates of exchange that are usually much better than those offered by banks and other brokers. 

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Alastair Archbold

Sterling/Euro up after German Inflation figures

Tuesday 29th April 2014
For the last week exchange rates have been quite stable, without much volatility. Today however we have seen some choppy movements on the Sterling/Euro rate in particular, following data releases from the UK and Germany. Let’s have a look at how it has affected exchange rates:

     

Pound slips after growth figures lower than expected

This morning the UK’s latest GDP figures were released, showing that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014. This is the 5th consecutive period of GDP growth - the longest positive run since the financial crisis. 

However the Pound fell on the news as the market had been expecting it to be even higher, at 0.9%. Just before the release rates rose slightly in anticipation of a good result as you can see in the chart above. You can also see the sharp drop the moment the actual number was released. 

In the currency markets, figures like this are forecast in advance and priced into exchange rates accordingly. 

Pound/Euro rates bounce back after German Inflation data 

After the UK’s figures, GBP/EUR sat around the €1.21 level. At 1pm Germany released its latest inflation numbers. Much like the UK’s release, Germany’s figures were slightly lower than expected, and this caused the Euro to weaken and become cheaper to buy. 

Germany is the EU’s largest economy so that’s why the results had quite a big impact on Pound/Euro rates, helping them to recover up to €1.2180. 

Looking for the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency requirement, and would like to discuss what might move the exchange rate, then get in touch with me for a free chat. I can discuss what you need to do and talk over what might move the exchange rate. 

I can also provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing currency broker - even a small difference in the rate can often save you thousands of Pounds. 

I can help you get the best exchange rates if you: need to buy property overseas, sell property and convert funds back to Sterling, monthly transfers to a Euro account, business’s buying or selling goods in foreign currencies etc.  (I trade all the worlds major currencies, not just the Euro.)

Click here to get in touch and find out more about the rates I can provide. 

Alastair Archbold