Friday 14th November The sterling sell off continues this week, as expectations of an interest rate hike in the UK are pushed back. The chart below shows how the rate has moved over the last few days:There hasn’t been any further data to cause the drop, and the fall is purely investors continuing to dump the Pound due to the fact interest rates are not going up any time soon, as I outlined in my last post on Wednesday. The drop has been quite significant. Purchasing €250,000.00 today compared to Friday morning would cost you £4,400.00 more, purely due to exchange rate movements over 2 days. This demonstrates how quickly things can change, and how important it is to get your timing right with regards to when to fix your exchange rate. Getting the best exchange rates
If you need to buy or sell any international currency on a bank to bank transfer basis, then get in touch with today by clicking here. I can discuss what is happening with exchange rates, the forecasts where experts expect the rate to go in the coming weeks and months, and provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. It’s free to make an enquiry, and you could save thousands of Pounds by achieve a better exchange rate. Click here to make a free enquiry today.
Wednesday 12th November 2014 Good morning. Earlier this week I warned that today would be key for Pound/Euro rates, and that if the Bank of England inflation report forecasted low inflation, then Sterling could drop off. This is exactly what has happened, and despite an initial rise in rates following good UK employment figures, we soon was the rate drop by over 1 cent as you can see from the chart below: UK Employment gives the Pound a (temporary!) boost
The day actually started well for the Pound, as figures showed that UK unemployment fell for the 18th consecutive month, beating expectations. The numbers also showed that one measure of average earnings growth beat inflation for the first time in five years. As the numbers were better than the markets were expecting, the Pound rose to above €1.28, getting near 6 year highs as you can see from the graph above. But the gains were short lived, as we will see in a moment…. Bank of England inflation report brings Sterling crashing back down.
Within an hour of the spike to €1.28, GBP/EUR figure plummeted by cent to €1.27. The reason for this was inflation expectations. 
At 10:30am the Bank of England gave its inflation report. Inflation is key to when interest rates in the UK will rise. Higher inflation lends itself to higher interest rates, and the expectation of this has been driving the Pound up this year. However today the BoE governor Mark Carney stated that inflation could fall below 1% in the next six months, due to sluggish growth in the European economy, and other downward pressures. Governor Mark Carney also said he did not expect inflation to reach the targeted rate of 2% for three years. The Bank also cut its prediction for UK economic growth in 2015 to 2.9%.All of this means that an interest rate hike in the UK is a long way off, and the Pound weakened accordingly. Is a weak Pound what the BoE wants?
In recent posts I have suggested that the strong Pound is not favoured by the Bank of England. It affects our exports and could harm our recover. For this reason I have warned recently that the BoE could take the opportunity to weaken the Pound if they can, and today that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Just a few comments from the BoE governor and the Pound has fallen again, repeating it’s trend of climbing to around €1.28 before dropping back down. Getting the best exchange rates
As you can see from my market report today, there are lots of risks to Sterling, and many different things that are pulling the rate up and down. Getting the best rates is partly getting your timing right, and also having a good currency broker to inform you what is happening in the market, and to help source you a better rate of exchange than the banks. This is how I can help you with your currency exchange, so if you need to convert once currency to another, then get in touch with me for a chat about how I can assist you and the rates I can achieve. Even if you already have a broker, it can do no harm to compare our rates as even a small difference in your exchange rate can represent a saving of thousands of Pounds when converting a large sum. Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.
Monday 10th November 2014 Good afternoon. It’s been a very quiet start to the week with no economic data releases of note. The Pound/Euro rate remains in the mid €1.27’s, and Pound/Dollar rates have dipped into the $1.58’s. 
As usual for a Monday, below I’ve listed the weeks data releases that I think will affect exchange rates. It’s a very quiet week all in all, with the most interesting release being on Wednesday when we see the latest UK unemployment numbers, along with the Bank of England (BoE) inflation report. This is important as inflation forecasts will have an effect on when the UK may raise interest rates. If inflation is forecast to remain low, expect the Pound to weaken. If inflation looks like it is on the rise again, the Pound could well strengthen. I personally think GBP/EUR will remain in its recent range of 1.26 to 1.28 in the coming weeks. Those buying Euros should consider locking a rate in now while it’s close to the best in 6 years. I can’t see anything on the horizon that will push the rate higher. If you need to perform a currency transaction, converting Euros to Pound, Sterling to Euros, or indeed need to get the best exchange rates when converting any international currency, then why not get in touch to see what rate I can offer. I can source rates up to 5% better than banks of other financial institutions can offer, and this can represent a significant saving if you need to convert a large sum. Click here to make a free, no obligation enquiry. This week’s economic data releases that could affect exchange rates.
Tuesday – Another very quiet day, with the only data of note a speech by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, along with a report from them about financial stability, so we could see some volatility in GBP/NZD rates. Wednesday – I think today will be the most important of the week for the Pound. We have the latest Unemployment numbers, alond with the Bank of England inflation report. This is important as the jobs numbers are a reflection of the economy, and the inflation report could give some insight into the future movements for UK interest rates. Thursday – Nothing of note from the UK, but the European Central Bank issues its monthly report, so GBP/EUR could be affected. Over in the USA we have Jobless claims numbers, and from Canada we have a BoC review. Friday – Yet again nothing of interest from the UK. The EU releases it’s latest inflation numbers and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, so GBP/EUR will be driven by these releases today. Over in the USA we have Retail Sales numbers and a consumer sentiment survey, both of which could affect GBP/USD rates. For more information on how the above could affect your currency requirement, or to get an exchange rate quote to compare with your bank or existing broker, click below to send me a free enquiry now. Click here to send a free no obligation enquiry.
Thursday 6th November 2014 The Sterling/Euro exchange rate has rocketed today, following comments by the European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi, as I predicted could well happen in my post earlier this week. Central Bank Decisions and the Pound/Euro exchange rate
Both the UK and EU central bank announced their latest decisions on interest rates today. There were no surprises, with both keeping their benchmark rates on hold. However after the EU decision, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, said in a press conference that the bank stands ready to give the Eurozone further economic stimulus "should it become necessary". Mr Draghi said: "Should it become necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate." Markets have taken this as a negative sign for the Eurozone, and the Euro weakened accordingly. As you can see form the chart below, there was a significant spike of around 1 cent, bringing the GBP/EUR rate to within a cent or so of the highest it’s been in 6 years.
What next for Pound/Euro?
To me the trend is just repeating itself. Many times over the last few months we have seen rates reach this level, before dipping back off again. Without anything on the horizon likely to strengthen the Pound, I think there is a good chance we could see the rate drop back again. If you need to buy Euros, I would consider locking in a rate now while it’s so good. You can fix the current rate for up to 2 years and only lodge 10% of what you want to convert. Euro sellers have a tougher decision. Longer term forecasts suggest the rate getting to €1.30, but short term you could see moves in your favour. If you need to buy or sell Euros, or indeed any international currency then click below to make a free enquiry on the rates I can source for you. I can help with bank to bank transfers from amounts from £5k to £5m. I’m afraid I cannot help with cash or holiday funds. Click here to make a free no obligation enquiry today.
Monday 3rd November 2014 We have seen Pound/Euro rates reach €1.28 today, due to slightly better than expected manufacturing numbers that gave Sterling a boost. The other reason rates have climbed up from €1.27 is a weaker Euro following last week’s decision from the USA to end their QE programme. The end of QE in the states strengthened the US Dollar, pulling rates down below $1.60 where they remain today. 
Below I have listed this week’s economic numbers that I think could affect exchange rates. I personally think that Pound/Euro will slip back away again in the coming days, as has been the general trend in the last few weeks. The high GBP/EUR rate is not good for the UK economy as it makes our goods and services more expensive. In the last few weeks we’ve seen BoE members and even the Prime Minister stating their wish for interest rates to stay at record lows for a long time to come. This could well be an attempt to weaken the Pound to help our exports, and I believe this could hold the Pound back from making further gains. If you need the best exchange rates, would like a quote, or to simply find our more about the foreign exchange services I can offer, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today. This week’s economic data releases
Tuesday 4th November – There are various economic figures from Australia today, including an interest rate decision, Trade Balance figures, and the latest Retail Sales numbers, so GBP/AUD could face some volatility. In the UK the only data of note is construction numbers. Over in the USA we have Trade Balance numbers, and the Bank of Canada’s Governor gives a speech. New Zealand has its latest employment numbers which could affect GBP/NZD Wednesday 5th November – A very quiet day for economic data releases. The only UK release is Services PMI. The Eurozone releases Retail Sales numbers in the USA we have manufacturing figures. Thursday 6th November – Today could be interesting for the Pound. We have Industrial and Manufacturing numbers at 09:30am, followed at lunchtime by the BoE decision on Interest Rates. I expect no movement, but any accompanying statement could affect Sterling. The Eurozone also has its interest rate decision. Again rates will be left on hold in all likelihood, but any hint of stimulus in the accompanying statement could weaken the Euro, pushing up GBP/EUR. In the afternoon, a GDP estimate will also be closely watched as an indicator of how the UK economy is performing. Friday 7th November – Today’s main UK release is Trade Balance data. This is important as if exports are down, it could mean the BoE talking the Pound down to try to help this area. In the USA we have Unemployment and Non-Farm payrolls, which are very hard to forecast. As a result, the actual figures often surprise the markets and affect GBP/USD rates. For more information on how the above could affect your currency requirement, or to get an exchange rate quote to compare with your bank or existing broker, click below to send me a free enquiry now. Click here to send a free no obligation enquiry.
Thursday 30th October 2014 Sterling/Dollar has plummeted overnight, following the FED’s expected decision to end its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. This also had the effect of weakening the Euro, pushing GBP/EUR rates higher. The charts below show the currency movements: FED announce end to QE
The US Federal Reserve has announced it is ending its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus programme, saying that it was confident the US economic recovery would continue, despite a global economic slowdown. The central bank, which also said it would not raise interest rates for a "considerable time", has gradually cut back QE since last year. While the decision was expected, it did have the effect of strengthening the US Dollar, bringing rates down below the $1.60 mark, however this morning GBP/USD recovered to around $1.60. The main reason the rate fell is their hawkish tone on interest rates.Pound/Euro rises
As investors bought the Dollar, they sold the Euro which caused the single currency to weaken, pushing rates up above €1.27. This has happened several times over the last few months, so I expect rates to dip back off again in the coming days and weeks as has been the trend of late. Getting the best exchange rates
If you need to perform a currency transaction, get in touch with me today by clicking here. The rates I can provide are up to 5% better than banks or other brokers can offer. In addition to excellent rates, I can also provide an insight into what is moving the rate, to help you to decide when to fix your rate.
Click here to send a free enquiry today.
Wednesday 29th October 2014 Pound/Euro rates have slipped slightly in the last 24 hours, bringing the mid-market rate down to €1.2647. While a little lower than the recent 6 year high, it’s still a very attractive buying level for Euros given that last summer rates were as low as €1.14. GBP/EUR gains unlikely as UK interest Rates set to remain low
Part of the reason the Pound has failed to go any higher against the Euro is the fact interest rates are no longer expected to go up any time soon. Reinforcing this view was a speech this week from the Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor Jon Cunliffe. In it he said that interest rates can be kept at their current record low level for longer than first thought, saying that weak pay and lower inflation, coupled with slower UK growth and slowdown in the global economy meant the BoE should remain "cautious". So with rates now set to remain at their record low of 0.5% for quite some time, it’s hard to see what would push Sterling exchange rates higher. Those that need to buy Euros should therefore consider locking in a rate now while it is still close to the 6 year high. Those selling Euros however should be cautious. While the Pound is unlikely to gain, a deterioration of the EU economy could weaken the Euro, meaning less Pounds for those that are converting the single currency back to Sterling. If you need to convert Pounds to Euros, or Euros to Pounds, click here to get a free quote and find out more about the foreign exchange services I offer. Rates I source are up to 5% better than banks can offer, so you could save thousands of Pounds by comparing the rates I offer. Pound/Dollar set to drop?
GBP/USD has been on the way down for a few months now, dropping from $1.72 to $1.60. Currently rates hold firm around $1.6140. However the US Federal Reserve is expected to announce the end of its quantitative easing (QE) programme later, and this could strengthen the Dollar, make it more expensive to buy and pull the GBP/USD rate down further. The FED has been gradually cutting back the scheme, which began in 2008, since late last year. The end of QE, assuming it does indeed come, will nonetheless be an important milestone in the repair of the US economy and likely strengthen the Dollar. Whether it makes a difference to the GBP/USD rate however remains to be seen. As it’s widely expected to happen, it will be priced into the rate already, but it’s impossible to know by how much. I wouldn’t be surprised to see rates drop below the $1.60 level throughout the rest of 2014. If you have a requirement to buy or sell USD, click here to send me a free enquiry to see how I can assist you in getting the best possible rates.
