Pound/Euro rises on ECB comments

Thursday 3rd September 2015
After falling 9 cents in the last month, Sterling/Euro rates have staged a slight recovery today, pushing back above €1.37 as you can see from the chart below: 

ECB cuts inflation and growth forecasts 

The reason for the rise in rates wasn’t anything to do with the Pound, but rather the Euro weakening and becoming cheaper to buy. This was because the European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its inflation and growth forecasts for the next few years. 

They said that inflation in the Eurozone would probably be very low indeed for years to come and in turn this means that economic growth is unlikely to increase as much as had been thought. The banks president Mario Draghi said it expected inflation to be 0.1% for 2015, rising to 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, dampened by lower energy prices. They also hinted that further Quantitative Easing (QE) may be requried to shore up the economy. QE effectively creates new money to pump into an economy and usually weakens a currency as more of it is in circulation. 

The Euro dropped like a stone on these comments and because all of this means that the EU recovery is not quite as on track as analysts and investors had thought, the result has been a sell-off in the single currency, causing it to weaken and push exchange rates back up to €1.37. 

Do you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rate? 

A typical purchase of €250,000 to buy a property abroad has differed in cost by over £11,500.00 in the last month alone, which really illustrates how important it is to get your timing right when fixing your rate of exchange. If you need to convert currency and would like to discuss the market and ways to protect you against market fluctuations, I am happy to speak to any potential clients that would like a quotation to compare what I can offer with their bank or existing currency broker. On average the rates I can provide are 2 to 3% better than available elsewhere which can mean huge savings when converting a large sum.

Click here to get in touch for a quote

GBP/EUR falls 4 cents in 1 week, before recovering to €1.42

Tuesday 18th August 2015 
It’s been an interesting week in the currency markets since my last post a week ago. (Apologies for the lack of updates recently; my girlfriend managed to break her leg quite badly so I’ve had other priorities!)

In the last week we saw Sterling weaken significantly, pulling GBP/EUR rates down from €1.42 back into the €1.39’s. Today however we have seen a significant recovery, and during trading today we have seen the rate shoot back up over €1.42. After a look at the last 7 day GBP/EUR chart I’ll explain what has been causing the volatility. Sterling/Euro over the last 7 days: 

What caused the Pound/Euro rate to fall into the €1.39s? 

It was a combination of poor UK economic data, positive data from Euro, and a 3rd €86bn bailout finally agreed for Greece. 

Let’s start with the UK numbers. Sterling fell sharply last Wednesday as numbers showed that wage growth had slowed, reflecting a slowing of the UK’s economic recovery. In turn the numbers means it’s more and more unlikely that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year. Investors duly sold the Pound, causing it to weaken significantly. GBP/EUR fell 4 cents in a 1 week period, which goes to show just how quickly exchange rates can change in the currency markets. 

It was a different story in Europe, with figures showing that the EU economy grew by 0.3%. Even Greece managed 0.8% growth, and it seems that the ECB Stimulus program seems to be working. The Euro gained strength as a result and became more expensive to purchase. 

Finally, Greece was back in the headlines but this time for the right reasons. The 3rd bailout of €86bn has finally been agreed after months of negotiations, which regular readers of my blog will be well aware of. Greece’s debt problems have been one of the main factors weakening the single currency recently, so with the issue finally sorted, the Euro gained against other currencies. All of the above caused the decline in GBP/EUR pushing rates below the key €1.40 level. 

GBP/EUR pushes back above €1.42 

Pound/Euro rates fought back today however. When I returned to work this morning the rate was sat around €1.4050. At the time of writing, we have seen the pair rise by more than 1% to rest just above the €1.42 mark. This morning the latest UK inflation numbers were released and were better than expected. While still very low at 0.1% and well below the Bank of England’s target of 2%, it does mean that we could now see a UK interest rate hike sooner than thought. 

One of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee members Ms Forbes has said that a rate hike took between one and two years to take full effect, and as a result, rates would need to rise "well before" inflation hit the Bank's 2% target. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

In addition to explaining what moves exchange rates, I can also provide you a quote for your exchange. I am the foreign exchange manager for one of the UK’s largest currency brokerages, and the rates we can achieve are some of the best available and as much as 5% better than your bank can offer. 

I can offer a quote in almost every currency pair including GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and many more. If you would like a quote, or to discuss which way the exchanges rates may move, then contact me today by clicking below. It costs nothing to make an enquiry, and I can usually save my clients around 2 to 3% on their exchange. This may not sound much, but when converting large sums the savings are thousands of pounds. 

Click here to send me an enquiry and get a quote today.

 

GBP/EUR hits €1.42 as Greek rescue falls apart

Wednesday 15th July 2015
In a new twist to the ongoing Greek saga, last night the IMF released a statement saying that they don’t think the proposed bailout goes far enough.

Effectively, this is a warning that the IMF will not take part in any rescue package for Greece unless the other EU creditors agree to much more debt relief than planned. This is a huge complication, and the amazing fact is everyone involved in the negotiations knew the IMF's position, but just ignored it.

Ignoring things doesn't make them go away, and the stunning developments means that the Euro has weakened even further, as nobody knows if this on-going issue is actually ever going to be resolved or not. 

The effect on the currency markets is a Euro that’s getting even weaker. The GBP/EUR reached €1.4240 this morning, before some poor UK employment numbers pulled it back down to the €1.42 mark as the graph below shows: 

 
 
What does all this mean for the Euro? 

It means that even if the Greeks agree to the plan today, it’s likely that the whole package agreed may now need to be re-negotiated, so in effect tomorrow morning we may well be back at square one. What an absolute mess this really is. The banks are still shut. They probably won’t open again for another month until an actual package is re-negotiated and ratified, so the ‘solution’ that came on Monday seems to be nothing of the sort. 

Result - GBP/EUR getting even higher.

Getting the best exchange rates 

These are very uncertain times, and having a good currency broker on your side can save you a lot of money if you are converting a large sum. Therefore if you want to get the best possible exchange rates, contact me for a quote. 

I provide commercial rates of exchange to private and corporate clients looking to trade £5k+.

Click here to discuss your currency requirements today.

Greece votes ‘No’ but markets remain calm

Monday 6th July 2015
This weekend the Greek people voted against the terms of their latest bailout proposal. 61% voted against it, and 39% voted to accept it. The reaction on the currency markets has been surprisingly muted. Greece's finance minister, who often clashed with creditors, has resigned. Varoufakis was seen as a major obstacle in negotiations and now that he has stepped down the possibility of a last minute deal to keep Athens in the Eurozone may have increased, and this could be a reason that the Euro hasn’t weakened more. 

What does all this mean for Pound/Euro exchange rates? 

Over the weekend we saw some weakness in the Euro on the Asian markets, with GBP/EUR rising to nearly 1.42. However as soon as European markets opened this morning, prices had corrected to €1.4050, so little change from where we were last week. 

Actually nothing has really changes. Greece will now go back to the negotiating table to try to strike a deal to re-structure Greek debt. Something needs to be done as without emergency assistance from the European Central Bank, Greek banks are going to run out of money within a few days, so despite the Greek people voting against Austerity, if they want their economy to survive then they still need to make a deal with their creditors. 

With the referendum out of the way, talks can resume and things are back to where they were a week ago. However while the market seems stable at the moment, the Euro could be vulnerable to selling on the market, so as the saga continues, we could see the Euro weaken further. At the moment however it seems a deal could be still be done. If it is, expect GBP/EUR to drop. If it isn’t, expect rates to remain firmly above 1.40. So all in all nothing has really changed! 

Are you looking for the best exchange rates? 

Those that have a currency transaction to perform should get in touch for a quote and find out more about the exchange rates and currency services I offer. I regret we don’t deal in cash or holiday money, but if you are looking to convert £5k to £1m and would like the very best commercial rates of exchange, then click below to send me a free enquiry today. 

Click here to send a free currency enquiry.

Sterling/Euro exchange rates & the General Election

Monday 30th March 2015
Exchange rates have been a little more stable in the last week, with the Pound/Euro rate remaining in a 2 cent range between 1.3550 and 1.3750 as the chart below illustrates: 

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

In my last post, I pointed out the Bank of England’s chief economist had warned interest rates may need to be cut to combat zero inflation. Well on Friday the day after my post, the governor Mark Carney said precisely the opposite, which is that the next move in interest rates will likely be up. 

Interest rate speculation has been a major driver of Sterling strength of late, and the comments on Friday caused the Pound to recover. It should be noted though that 2 of the main decision makers within the BoE seem to be at odds with regards to which way the rate will go, which is only going to create more uncertainty. The fact remains that if the numbers continue to show inflation so low, a cut is more likely and this could weaken the Pound. 

General Election and Exchange Rates

For the next month, the main news will be the UK election. The Pound is likely to weaken against other currencies over the next month due to the election uncertainty, and as I outlined in a recent post, this is because the result is so uncertain. This is likely to push the Pound lower in the coming weeks. I personally don't think we'll see things back at €1.40 any time soon.

If you need to buy or sell Euros and would like to discuss your currency requirement with me and obtain a quotation, click here to send a free no obligation enquiry. On average the rates I provide are 3% better than banks and other financial institutions so you could save a significant amount of money. 

Click here to make a free enquiry 

What could affect exchange rates this week? 

Below I’ve listed the scheduled releases for the coming week that I think may affect exchange rates. Remember that other things such as election uncertainty could also change rates at any time without warning. To discuss your currency requirement in more detail, or have a chat about which direction the exchange rate may go, click here to send a free enquiry today. 

Tuesday 31st March 2015 – Today we have the latest UK GDP forges, which are expected to show monthly and annual growth at 0.5% and 2.7% respectively. If the numbers are worse than this then expect the Pound to fall against other currencies. GBP/EUR could also be affected today by the EU inflation and Unemployment numbers. For those watching GBP/USD then US Consumer confidence figures at 3pm is something to watch out for. 

Wednesday 1st April – Today the main events for the currency markets will be inflation numbers from Europe and the UK. This is important as it indicates future interest rate movements, and so often affects exchange rates. Construction and Manufacturing numbers from the USA could affect GBP/USD 

Thursday 2nd April – Nothing major from the UK today, but there is an ECB meeting that looks at the economy and financial markets. It’s basically an assessment for the EU economy so this could affect Pound/Euro rates. Most other data is from the USA – Unemployment Jobless figures and Factory orders. 

Friday 3rd April – Very quiet today as most markets are closed for Good Friday. The USA remains open however and we have some important releases; Unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls. These numbers often move GBP/USD rates as the figures are often quite different to what’s expected. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

Click here to send a free enquiry today.

Sterling/Euro rates near €1.41!

Tuesday 10th March 2015 
A very brief update this afternoon to say the Pound/Euro rate has risen by almost 2 cents today, pushing through the €1.40 barrier and onwards towards €1.41 – a fresh 7 year high and the best rates have been now since the end of 2007: 

The pound has been gaining all day after the European Central Bank (ECB) began its government bond buying programme earlier this week. This also after the head of the eurozone finance ministers' group called on Greece to "stop wasting time" and engage in serious talks on reform. 

I’ll post a more detailed update tomorrow afternoon, as my time today has been spent on the trading floor assisting clients with Euro purchases. We’re offering trading levels of €1.40+ today and needless to say we have been very busy indeed performing a record number of GBP/EUR trades. 

Do you need to convert currency at the best exchange rates? 

If you have a currency transaction to perform, would like a quote, or to simply discuss the market or anything I’ve covered above, contact me for a free no obligation consultation by clicking below. 

Click here to send a free enquiry. 

Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast

Tuesday 17th February 2015 
In today’s report I’ll take a look at the Sterling/Euro exchange rate forecast, and also what data releases the rest of the week has in store and how they could affect exchange rates. Today the Pound has fallen against other currencies due to the lowest inflation figures on record.

Sterling/Euro 

The Pound/Euro rate has been repeating its recent trend of rising above the €1.35 mark, only to drop back away within days. This has happened again this morning, with the rate falling from €1.3550 to €1.3450 over the course of this morning. What’s been going on? 

Continued uncertainty over what is happening in Greece has continued to weaken the Euro, and that’s what keeps pushing the rate higher However with very low UK inflation numbers this morning, the Pound has fallen back away which is why GBP/EUR exchange rates have dropped. To be honest I think sooner or later, the Greeks will reach an agreement with the EU regarding its debts, and when this uncertainty is removed, the Euro could gain back some of its losses and bring GBP/EUR even lower. I personally don’t expect rates to stay at the €1.35 level for long. 

Supporting that view was this morning’s UK inflation figures. The rate of UK Consumer Prices Index inflation fell to 0.3% in January, its lowest level since records began in 1989. 

On the one hand, this does provide a respite for consumers in the UK and increase spending power so it’s good news. On the other hand however, it means interest rates in the UK aren’t going anywhere, and so the Pound has weakened off. 

(Low interest rates usually weaken a currency and it’s this fact that’s keeping the Pound in check.)

If you need the best GBP/EUR rates, or indeed need to convert any international currency, click here to make a free enquiry on the commercial exchange rates I can offer you.

 

What else could move exchange rates this week? 

Tuesday 17th February 2015  

This morning we had the latest inflation figures, and they were slightly worse than expected. This means it’s getting less and less likely that interest rates will be going up any time soon in the UK, and the Pound has fallen today by over a cent against the Euro. 

Wednesday 18th February 2015 

Today is an important one for Sterling, as at 09:30am we will see the latest unemployment figures, and the Bank of minutes. I expect the unemployment number to remain at 2.6%, but if it’s higher than this expect the Pound to fall and vice versa. The BoE minutes will be important as it will show if any of the Banks Monetary Policy committee voted to hike interest rates at their last meeting. I would expect this to show all members voting to keep rates on hold in light of the recent inflation numbers. 

Thursday 19th February 2015 

Nothing of note from the UK today, however the Eurozone has a monetary policy meeting and a consumer confidence release, that could affect GBP/EUR rates. The USA also has some important jobs and manufacturing numbers today, so we could also see changes in the Pound/Dollar rate. 

Friday 20th February 2015 

Today is another important one for Sterling as we have the latest UK Retail Sales numbers. I expect these to be around the 5.9% mark, and any deviation from this figure could cause the Pound to move against other currencies. Retail Sales figures are important as they are a good overall barometer of economic activity. 

To discuss your currency requirement and obtain a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker, click here.

Pound surges to €1.3560 after Inflation Report

Thursday 12th February 2015 
We have seen the Pound surge higher today on the back of the Bank of England’s Inflation report. Pound/Euro rates climbed from 1.3410 to a peak of 1.3560, a new 7 and half year high, before settling back down towards €1.35: 

 

Pound/Euro rates up on Inflation report 

I’m actually quite surprised that the Pound moved so much this morning. In the report, the Bank of England governor stated that inflation in the UK could temporarily turn negative later this year due to the drop in the price of oil, and normally falling inflation would weaken a currency. However he went on to say that for the next few years, growth could be higher than expected at 2.9%. I think it’s this upward revision that caused the Pound to rise because of falling oil prices. 

It also said it sees little need to raise interest rates this year (again, something you would normally expect to weaken a currency) and could even cut them if inflation proves weaker than expected. However it seems that the markets interpreted the report as keeping on track an expected interest rate rise in about a year, in early 2016. 

Asked about concerns about Greece leaving the Eurozone, Mr Carney said that the risks were not as great as they were three years ago, but that a Greek exit would have an impact on the Bank's forecasts. 

What does this mean for Sterling/Euro rates? 

I think this is a temporary spike. We have seen the rate hit similar levels just this week; however they did not last long and the rate dropped away quite quickly. With the UK election likely to cause uncertainty and Sterling weakness, I think the Pound will struggle to go much higher this year. 

We also have the situation in Greece and the EU. On the one hand, further problems could weaken the Euro and caused the rate to climb higher. On the other hand, when the EU’s QE measures start to take effect, this could cause the Euro to regain strength and bring rates down. Also, don’t automatically assume more bad news from Europe will cause GBP/EUR to keep rising. Yes it could weaken the Euro, but as our largest trading partner, this could well drag Sterling down at the same time. 

Click here to discuss your currency requirement. 

When should you fix your exchange rate? 

There are various options available, depending on which currency you are converting and the timescales you are working to. Why not get in touch with me to discuss these options and obtain a quote for your exchange. I can usually provide exchange rates much better than banks and other brokers, and by having a detailed chat about what you need to do, you can make an informed decision on what course of action to take and when to fix your rate. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

How could General Election affect exchange rates?

Friday 9th January 2015 
Where do things stand with exchange rates? Pound/Euro is hovering around its comfortable level of €1.28 and Pound/Dollar has stopped falling, for now, and sits around $1.5150. Against other major currencies Sterling is actually quite weak have fallen against most currencies. It’s only weakness in the Euro that’s keeping GBP/EUR supported at the current near 6 year high. 

The Pound could struggle this year for several reasons which I’ll look at today. Remember that if you want to achieve the best exchange rates, click here to send me a free enquiry, get a quote, and find out more about the commercial exchange rates I can offer.

• How General Election could affect Sterling exchange rates 
• When will interest rate go up, and will the change Pound/Euro 
• QE in Europe and will this make GBP/EUR rates go up 
• Pound/Dollar will it drop below $1.50 

Election uncertainty could weaken the Pound 

Political uncertainty is one key thing that can weaken a currency, and this year’s election is one of the most uncertain in a generation. Whatever happens it’s going to be very rare indeed. There has only been 2 occasions in the ‘50s when a government in power for more than a few years has increased its share of the vote, and Cameron needs exactly this to win. For Miliband to come back after Labours defeat last time and win a majority has only happened 3 times in the last 100 years, so that’s also unlikely. The 3rd option is a coalition; the last time that happened on two consecutive occasions was over 100 years ago. So any of the possible outcomes will be almost unprecedented. 

This means Sterling could come under pressure this year and fail to move higher, and could keep exchange rates in check. 

Interest Rates may not rise this year 

The Bank of England again kept interest rates at 0.5% yesterday, and a rise in interest rates in 2015 is looking less and less likely, after inflation levels have fallen recently. Last year there was much speculation rates would be going up, but it now seems the UK’s recovery has proved less robust than hoped, so hopes of a rate rise seem to have evapourated. HSBC for example have now pushed back its forecast for the next rate hike to 2016 due to political uncertainty, weaker inflation and an economic slowdown. 

So this along with the election is also likely to keep the Pound from rising. 

ECB closer to doing Quantitative Easing 

One thing that could move GBP/EUR higher however is the EU that could be soon embarking on a QE programme. They have miserable growth and little improvement is on the horizon and doing nothing is not an option. The ECB president is dropping stronger and stronger hints that they will embark on a stimulus programme. Nobody knows if it will work, but three countries that have embarked on it in the past (UK, USA & Japan) all saw their currency weaken. This is partly priced into the value of the Euro and is the one thing that is stopping Pound/Euro dropping away. 

If you need to buy or sell Euros at the best rates, would like a quote, or want to find out more about which way the exchange rate may move, click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

Pound/Dollar rate stops falling, for now 

The sharp decline in GBP/USD has also been halted. The rate dropped into the $1.50’s but has now recovered back to $1.5150. however due to the reasons above, and the fact the United States are likely to push up their interest rates soon, it could drop below the $1.50 mark later this year. 

Do you want the best exchange rates for conversion between any major international currency?

click here for a free consultation on how we can help you. 

Inflation figures brings the Pound crashing down.

Wednesday 12th November 2014 
Good morning. Earlier this week I warned that today would be key for Pound/Euro rates, and that if the Bank of England inflation report forecasted low inflation, then Sterling could drop off. This is exactly what has happened, and despite an initial rise in rates following good UK employment figures, we soon was the rate drop by over 1 cent as you can see from the chart below: 

UK Employment gives the Pound a (temporary!) boost 

The day actually started well for the Pound, as figures showed that UK unemployment fell for the 18th consecutive month, beating expectations. The numbers also showed that one measure of average earnings growth beat inflation for the first time in five years. As the numbers were better than the markets were expecting, the Pound rose to above €1.28, getting near 6 year highs as you can see from the graph above. But the gains were short lived, as we will see in a moment…. 

Bank of England inflation report brings Sterling crashing back down. 

Within an hour of the spike to €1.28, GBP/EUR figure plummeted by cent to €1.27. The reason for this was inflation expectations. 

At 10:30am the Bank of England gave its inflation report. Inflation is key to when interest rates in the UK will rise. Higher inflation lends itself to higher interest rates, and the expectation of this has been driving the Pound up this year. 

However today the BoE governor Mark Carney stated that inflation could fall below 1% in the next six months, due to sluggish growth in the European economy, and other downward pressures. Governor Mark Carney also said he did not expect inflation to reach the targeted rate of 2% for three years. The Bank also cut its prediction for UK economic growth in 2015 to 2.9%.

All of this means that an interest rate hike in the UK is a long way off, and the Pound weakened accordingly. 

Is a weak Pound what the BoE wants? 

In recent posts I have suggested that the strong Pound is not favoured by the Bank of England. It affects our exports and could harm our recover. For this reason I have warned recently that the BoE could take the opportunity to weaken the Pound if they can, and today that’s exactly what we’ve seen. Just a few comments from the BoE governor and the Pound has fallen again, repeating it’s trend of climbing to around €1.28 before dropping back down. 

Getting the best exchange rates 

As you can see from my market report today, there are lots of risks to Sterling, and many different things that are pulling the rate up and down. Getting the best rates is partly getting your timing right, and also having a good currency broker to inform you what is happening in the market, and to help source you a better rate of exchange than the banks. 

This is how I can help you with your currency exchange, so if you need to convert once currency to another, then get in touch with me for a chat about how I can assist you and the rates I can achieve. Even if you already have a broker, it can do no harm to compare our rates as even a small difference in your exchange rate can represent a saving of thousands of Pounds when converting a large sum. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

What next for Sterling exchange rates?

Monday 27th October 2014 
Good afternoon. The Pound is currently trading at the top end of its recent range against the Euro, sitting at a mid-market level of €1.27 at the time of writing. The European Bank stress tests over the weekend were quite poor, which has weakened the Euro slightly making it cheaper to purchase. Against the US Dollar, the Pound is also up slightly at $1.6135. 

Which direction could Sterling take this week? 

 
As I often point out, it’s impossible to predict the market. However, with a good knowledge of economic data and recent trends, it is possible to make an informed choice as to when to fix your exchange rate. You should also consider taking advantage of a free consultation with me if you need to get the best possible rates of exchange. Below I will list all this week’s economic data that I think will have an effect on exchange rates. 

Be aware if you are buying Euros, that the rate has reached these levels many times recently before dropping back away. Given we’re at the top end of the recent GBP/EUR trading range, get in touch today to get a quote and find out how to take advantage of these rates, even if you don’t need your currency right now. 

I’m afraid we only deal with bank to bank transfers for amounts of £5000+, we do not deal in cash or holiday money. If you need to exchange currency for a property abroad, topping up your Euro account, or if you buy or sell goods overseas, I can help you get exchange rates up to 5% better than banks can offer. 

Click here to make a free no obligation enquiry today. 

This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday – This evening at 7.30pm, one of the Bank of England (BoE) members gives a speech. Any clues as to future interest rate movements could affect the value of the Pound. 

Tuesday – Most data today is from the USA – Durable goods orders and consumer confidence, both of which could affect GBP/USD exchange rates. Later in the evening at 6.30pm we have another BoE member giving a speech. 

Wednesday – Germany has a bond auction today, and the UK releases Net lending data, so we could see changes in the GBP/EUR rate. There is also yet another speech by a Bank of England member. We also have Business Confidence data from New Zealand, in addition to their latest decision on Interest rates, so GBP/NZD could change. Over in the states we have a statement by the FOMC, and their interest rate decision. 

Thursday – Yet another BoE member gives a speech today! Other than that Nationwide House prices is the only UK release. In Europe we have Spanish growth data, and German unemployment figures. Stateside, FED chair Yellen gives a speech, and the latest unemployment figures are also released. 

Friday – Nothing of note from the UK today. In Europe we will see German Retail Sales, French Spending, and inflation estimates for the Eurozone, all of which could affect the GBP/EUR rate. In the USA we have Employment data, Personal Spending, and inflation numbers. 

For more information on how the above could affect your currency requirement, or to get an exchange rate quote to compare with your bank or existing broker, click below to send me a free enquiry now. 

Click here to send a free no obligation enquiry.

Pound falls away from 6 year high vs Euro

Thursday 2nd October 2014 
The Pound has fallen quite sharply today, falling from 1.2875 to 1.2750 against the Euro. Against the US Dollar we have seen rates fall from 1.6250 to 1.6125. What’s been going on? 

Pound/Euro drops as single currency strengthens 

Earlier this week GBP/EUR rates were close to a 6 year high, peaking at 1.2875 yesterday afternoon. It looks like investors have had enough of buying the Pound however, and as soon as markets opened this morning the Pound steadily lost value, as you can see from today’s chart:  

Euro gains strength, but remains on a tightrope

Today we had the European Central Bank (ECB) announce its decision to hold interest rates at the record low of 0.15%. Not really a surprise, as they can’t really cut it any lower than they already have! This was expected, so all eyes and ears were on the press conference that followed, to see if the ECB president Mario Draghi said anything about their Quantitative Easing programme. 

It turns out that what moved the currency markets wasn’t to do with what he said; it was more to do with what he didn’t say. The BBC are reporting that the ECB are starting it's asset buying programme, however in his speech he declined to actually give any figures on how much this would involve, so we don't really know any more about these plans than we did already. The fact that he didn't clarify 'QE proper' means that the Euro actually gained strength causing Pound/Euro rates to drop by 1% on the day so far. This doesn't sound like much but if you're converting a large sum, small changes like this can be costly. 

Given the recent figures showing that inflation is at a 5 year low in the Eurozone, many including myself thought that Draghi would have to pursue a proper QE programme, much like the UK and US have done in recent years. However he gave no indication of an imminent stimulus program through the purchase of sovereign bonds. He simply said that their mandate is to bring inflation back to a level that is close to but below 2%. 

As markets were expecting a little more from his comments, the Euro gained strength and became more expensive to buy, pulling levels down from the recent highs we have seen. 

Do you have Euros to buy or sell in the coming months? 

Those that need to buy Euros and took advantage of the recent highs, or had a ‘Stop Loss’ order in place to protect against a downturn in the rate will be pleased as the rate has now dropped. If you still need Euros in the coming months however, there are tools to help you achieve the best rate of exchange within your timeframe. 

Don't just leave things to chance, speak to a specialist currency broker like myself to discuss what is happening in the market to help you make an informed choice on when to fix your rate. Contact me today by clicking here for a no obligation consultation on what I can do for you and the rates we can offer. 

Those that need to convert Euros back to Pounds should consider taking advantage of this spike in your favour. I think that in the long term, the ECB will pursue more aggressive stimulus, and this coupled with higher interest rates in the UK should eventually put GBP/EUR back on its upward path. 

Click here to make an enquiry on how I can help you achieve the best possible exchange rates.

Pound recovers over interest rate confusion

Monday 18th August 2014 
Things can move very quickly in the currency markets, and the Pound has recovered some of its losses today. So what has caused the Pound to rise? Strangely it is exactly the same as what caused it to fall last week; comments from the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. In today’s report I’ll look at the mixed signals he is giving on interest rates, and why this is affecting exchange rates.

Remember I can help you achieve exchange rates much better than available at banks, so if you need to convert one currency to another, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

Mark Carney continues to confuse the market over interest rates 

In my post last Wednesday, I explained that it was the expectation of interest rates going up in the UK that has been pushing the Pound higher and higher this year. Last week however Mark Carney hinted that rates would not be going up this year, and that is what caused the Pound to drop last week. (Higher interest rates strengthen a currency and vice versa).

Over the weekend however in an interview in the Sunday Times, he was very non-committal, saying that holding off raising rates is "an expectation not a promise". 

He seems to change his mind quicker than the weather in the UK; one week he says that “rates would not rise above their current historic low, of half a per cent, before next year because of a "remarkably weak" rise in real wages.” and just a few days later he says that “the base rate may have to go up before households enjoy a rise in living standards.” 

So which is it? Confused? We are, and I think Carney may be too!  A little while ago his mixed signals over interest rates have been compared by one MP to him blowing hot and cold, like an unreliable boyfriend, and it's causing volatility in exchange rates.

What effect has this had on exchange rates? 

His comments last week caused the Pound to fall, however this morning the Pound was up again as markets try to decipher when interest rates will go up. 

So which was could rates move in the coming weeks? It’s impossible to know, and much will depend on what Carney says next.

The most important releases for the UK will be Wednesdays Bank of England minutes. These will show what Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee discussed when they recently decided to keep rates on hold. With Carney not giving a very clear picture on what his thoughts are with interest rates, these minutes will be watched very closely to try and decipher what the other 8 members of the rate setting committee think. If one or more of them voted for a rate hike, expect exchange rates to go up. If all 9 members voted to keep rates on hold, expect the Pound to fall. 

Are looking to get the best possible exchange rates? 

Get in touch to see how I can help you. Regular readers will know there is alot that can affect the exchange rate, and taking advantage of my 10 years  expertise in the currency markets could save you thousands.

You can have a free no obligation chat with me about the exchange rate, and I can explain what is moving the rate and discuss which way it could move in the future. In this way you can make an informed choice on when to fix your exchange rate. 

When you decide to fix a rate, I can provide commercial exchange rates that are significantly better than banks offer, by as much as 5%. This means that I can save you thousands of Pounds when converting one currency to another. 

 Click here to make an enquiry today and see how much you could save.

A busy week for exchange rates - what could happen to the Pound?

Monday 11th August 2014 
Good afternoon. Exchange rates have recovered slightly today after the drops we saw at the end of last week, caused by global uncertainty over the conflicts in Ukraine and the middle-east, as explained in my most recent post. Today has been quite quiet as there is little economic data for the markets to digest. 

This week however will be anything but quiet, I think today could be the calm before the storm as we have some significant data releases this week that could affect which way exchange rates move in the coming weeks. 

For the UK, we have unemployment figures, a Bank of England (BoE) report, the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, and a speech by the BoE Governor Mark Carney. In recent speeches he has given mixed signals on when interest rates may start rising, even being accused of behaving like an unreliable boyfriend, and that had caused the Pound/Euro rate to go up or down. So his comments could well cause further volatility in exchange rates. 

So, lot's that I think could affect the market this week and a full breakdown of this week’s data is listed below. 

Do you want the best exchange rates? 

Are you buying selling property abroad and need to convert funds? Do you have accounts overseas you need to keep topped up? Perhaps you are a business that buys and sells goods in the Eurozone and need to convert between Pounds and Euros? 

Whatever your currency needs, I can help you source excellent exchange rates, fast international transfers, and various contract types to protect against markets moving against you. 

Send me a free enquiry today to get a quote and see how we can help you. 

This week’s economic data releases 

Tuesday 12th August - There is no UK data of note, however GBP/EUR rates could still be affected as we have EU and German Economic Sentiment figures released at 10am. We also have House price data from Australia that could move GBP/AUD, and the monthly US budget statement could give indication on future US economic policy, so watch for GBP/USD today. 

Wednesday 13th August – In my view today is the most important one for Sterling exchange rates. We have the latest UK Unemployment numbers, along with a Bank of England inflation report, followed by a Speech by BoE Governor Mark Carney. As I stated above, his comments could cause changes to the value of the Pound. Elsewhere, US Retail Sales are released later this afternoon from the United States. 

Thursday 14th August – Today is busy for EU data – Inflation numbers, Gross Domestic Product, and a monthly report from the European Central Bank, all of which will give indications how the EU economy is performing and so GBP/EUR rates could be affected. From the USA today we have the latest Jobless Claims numbers 

Friday 15th August – Another important day for the Pound as we have the latest Gross Domestic Product figures. I expect the monthly figure to be 0.8% and the annual figure 3.1% - any lower than this expect exchange rates to drop and vice-versa. Elsewhere the USA has inflation figures released later in the afternoon. 

Click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry today.

Pound hits 20 month high of €1.25 after interest rate rise hint

Friday 13th June 2014 
Good morning. Friday the 13th, unlucky for some, but not those that need to move Pounds to Euros. Sterling has surged higher following a speech by the governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, in which he has signalled that interest rates may rise this year. I’ll go into a little more detail in a moment, but in a nutshell this has caused Sterling to rise higher, hitting a 20 month high of €1.25 against the Euro, and testing a 5 year high of $1.70 against the US Dollar: 

Mark Carney hints at interest rate rise 

Last night in a keynote speech, Mr Carney said a rate rise "could happen sooner than markets currently expect". He acknowledged there was "already great speculation about the exact timing of the first rate hike" from their record low of 0.5%, adding that the decision was "becoming more balanced". 

The news immediately caused the Pound to gain, as the rumour of higher interest rates attracts investment into the Pound, giving it strength and causing exchange rates to rise. 

Will the Pound go up or down against the Euro?

Nobody knows which way the exchange rate will go, but in general the markets move more on rumour than fact. This means that the rumour of higher rates is now getting priced into the market, hence the current excellent buying level for Euros. 

In my view, from what we know right now it’s likely the Pound will remain strong, and the Euro will remain weak, so we could well see rates go higher. However there are situations that could cause it to fall back away, so you should be aware of these if you need to buy Euros and are holding out for a higher rate. 

In his speech he also described the perils ahead for the economy. He said he would look to his ‘trusty canoe’ to ‘navigate the most rapid and treacherous waters’. These include: 

• A housing market which could ‘overheat’ 
• High levels of household debt and a record current account deficit. 
• He warned the UK economy is ‘currently unbalanced internally and externally’, adding this had to be addressed to turn the recovery into a ‘durable expansion’. 
• Carney also pointed to ‘old imbalances persisting and new ones emerging.’ 

So there are lots of warnings that the economic recovery is not guaranteed to continue, and so there is the risk the Pound could drop back away. We also have the Eurozone that is taking significant steps to bolster their economy, and if these measures work the Euro could gain strength pulling rates back down. 

What should you do if you need to buy or sell foreign currency at the best rates? 

Your first step should be a free consultation, which I can provide over the phone with no obligation. I can discuss your particular requirements, explain the various tools you can use to protect against the market moving against you, and provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. 

I can provide rates up to 5% better than available elsewhere, on up to 25 different international currencies, and the savings can be considerable. 

Make a free no obligation enquiry with me now by clicking here. 

Alastair Archbold

This week's data that could affect exchange rates

Monday 28th April 2014
Good morning. Today I will give a brief outline of how Sterling exchange rates start the week, and then I’ll list all the economic data releases that I think will affect currency prices this week. 

Let’s start with how the Pound is performing this Monday morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar this morning, hitting $1.6850. This was due to a strengthening of the Pound after U.S. drug maker Pfizer confirmed it had made a bid approach to Britain's second-biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca.  

There weren’t any gains for Pound/Euro however, as the Euro is being kept strong by expectations that EU inflation will rise when figures are released later this week. 

Below I will list the main data releases I think will affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, and would like to get a quote or discuss how I can assist you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday 28th April 2014 

It’s been a quiet start to the week, with the merger and acquisition news about Astra Zeneca giving the Pound a lift. The rest of today is also quiet, with some US Home Sales data due at 3pm. Later this evening we will see New Zealand’s latest trade balance data that could affect GBP/NZD rates. 

Tuesday 29th April 2014 

Today is the main day this week that might affect Pound/Euro rates. At 09:30am we will see the latest UK Gross Domestic Product figures. They’re expected to come in at 0.9% (quarterly) and 3.2% (annually), so any deviation from these numbers could see the Pound rise or fall accordingly. 

This is followed at 10am by EU Investor and Consumer confidence, so the Euro’s value could also be affected today. There are also German inflationary releases due at 1pm. 

Wednesday 30th April 2014 

Late on Tuesday evening UK Consumer confidence figures were due to be released, so when the markets open at 8am we could see some reaction. Also today we have Germany Retail Sales and Unemployment, and EU inflation numbers, so GBP/EUR could be affected. 

It’s a busy day stateside today, with GDP figures, a FED interest rate decision, and FED policy statement all expected to affect Sterling/Dollar rates. 

Thursday 1st May 2014 

Some minor Credit and Mortgage data is released from the UK this morning but I don’t expect it to affect rates. The rest of today’s ecostats are from the USA: Jobless Claims, a speech by Janet Yellen the FED chair, Manufacturing and Construction. GBP/USD will therefore be the currency pair most at risk today. 

Friday 2nd May 2014 

UK Construction data, along with EU Unemployment and growth forecasts will drive the Sterling/Euro pair today. This afternoon we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls – these are usually very different from forecast so often causes GBP/USD to move - the numbers are released at 1.30pm so expect a choppy day’s trade for cable. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

Click here to send a free enquiry 
Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’

Sterling/Euro exchange rates likely to move this week

Tuesday 22nd April 2014 
Good afternoon, and welcome back to regular currency updates after the Easter break. 

It’s been a quiet start to the week with no major data releases, and Sterling/Euro remains quite close to €1.22, with Sterling/Dollar hovering a little above $1.6800. 

Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down this week? 

There are 2 key things happening this week that I think will affect exchange rates. I’ve listed the week’s data at the bottom of today’s post, but I will also go into a little detail about the main releases that I think could change Pound/Euro rates. 

In effect we have the central banks of the UK and Europe pulling in different directions, and this will likely have an impact on which way the Pound/Euro currency pair could go in the coming weeks and months…. 

Bank of England could cause GBP/EUR rates to fall 

Tomorrow morning we have the latest minutes from the BoE meeting, and this will show what was discussed with regards to interest rates. I expect they may well hint that they will now be looking at a broad range of factors that will determine when they will raise interest rates. 

If this hints that rates won’t rise until well into 2015, then the Pound may weaken off and erode the gains we saw last week. 

European Central Bank could cause GBP/EUR rates to rise 

On Thursday, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to give a keynote speech. He recently made clear the euro's strength is a possible trigger for the central bank to ease monetary policy. Very weak inflation in the euro zone, due partly to the strong exchange rate, has raised pressure on the ECB to further loosen monetary policy to stimulate growth. 

In the past few weeks Draghi has brought the currency into focus and warned that any further strengthening could lead the euro zone's central bank to use unconventional tools such as asset purchases. If he expands on this further, the Euro could weaken and GBP/EUR rates could rise. 

So as you can see, we could see rates move either way this week due to the above. To discuss your requirements in more detail, or if you would like a quote on the best exchange rate I can get for you, click here to send me a free enquiry today. 

The rest of this week’s economic data 

Wednesday 23rd April 2014 

The important data today is the Bank of England minutes, which show what was discussed in their recent interest rate meeting. They could well hint that a rate hike is some way off, which would weaken the Pound and cause exchange rates to drop. 

We also have Inflation data from the Eurozone, Home Sales data from the United States, and an Interest rate decision from New Zealand. I think they will raise rates, which will cause GBP/NZD to fall if they indeed choose to do so. 

Thursday 24th April 2014 

There is nothing of note from the UK today, but as I mentioned in my introduction, we have a speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi. He could hint at monetary easing, which would weaken the Euro and cause GBP/EUR rates to go up. 

Stateside we have Jobless claims numbers, so GBP/USD could be affected. 

Friday 25th April 2014 

We end the week with UK Retail Sales and mortgage approvals, and a consumer sentiment survey from the USA. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

• Click here to send a free enquiry 
• Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’