This week's data that could affect exchange rates

Monday 28th April 2014
Good morning. Today I will give a brief outline of how Sterling exchange rates start the week, and then I’ll list all the economic data releases that I think will affect currency prices this week. 

Let’s start with how the Pound is performing this Monday morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar this morning, hitting $1.6850. This was due to a strengthening of the Pound after U.S. drug maker Pfizer confirmed it had made a bid approach to Britain's second-biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca.  

There weren’t any gains for Pound/Euro however, as the Euro is being kept strong by expectations that EU inflation will rise when figures are released later this week. 

Below I will list the main data releases I think will affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, and would like to get a quote or discuss how I can assist you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday 28th April 2014 

It’s been a quiet start to the week, with the merger and acquisition news about Astra Zeneca giving the Pound a lift. The rest of today is also quiet, with some US Home Sales data due at 3pm. Later this evening we will see New Zealand’s latest trade balance data that could affect GBP/NZD rates. 

Tuesday 29th April 2014 

Today is the main day this week that might affect Pound/Euro rates. At 09:30am we will see the latest UK Gross Domestic Product figures. They’re expected to come in at 0.9% (quarterly) and 3.2% (annually), so any deviation from these numbers could see the Pound rise or fall accordingly. 

This is followed at 10am by EU Investor and Consumer confidence, so the Euro’s value could also be affected today. There are also German inflationary releases due at 1pm. 

Wednesday 30th April 2014 

Late on Tuesday evening UK Consumer confidence figures were due to be released, so when the markets open at 8am we could see some reaction. Also today we have Germany Retail Sales and Unemployment, and EU inflation numbers, so GBP/EUR could be affected. 

It’s a busy day stateside today, with GDP figures, a FED interest rate decision, and FED policy statement all expected to affect Sterling/Dollar rates. 

Thursday 1st May 2014 

Some minor Credit and Mortgage data is released from the UK this morning but I don’t expect it to affect rates. The rest of today’s ecostats are from the USA: Jobless Claims, a speech by Janet Yellen the FED chair, Manufacturing and Construction. GBP/USD will therefore be the currency pair most at risk today. 

Friday 2nd May 2014 

UK Construction data, along with EU Unemployment and growth forecasts will drive the Sterling/Euro pair today. This afternoon we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls – these are usually very different from forecast so often causes GBP/USD to move - the numbers are released at 1.30pm so expect a choppy day’s trade for cable. 

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GBP/EUR, GBP/USD, and the weeks economic data

Monday 7th April 2014 
Exchange rates are relatively stable as we start the trading week. In today’s post I’ll have a quick look at where Sterling/Euro and Sterling/Dollar rates stand, and what the forecast is for the short term for whether Pound exchange rates will go up or down. As usual for a Monday, I’ll also list the week’s economic data releases that I think will affect the currency markets. 

Sterling/Euro 

In my post last week I explained that rates had shot up to just over €1.2100 after the ECB announced it discussed conducting a Quantitative Easing programme. Pound/Euro rates remain a little below the €1.21 level today, having dropped a bit through trading after one of the ECB members said that there was no need to take immediate action. 

I’m surprised the Euro didn’t weaken further, but this week we will see several speeches by ECB members. If they shed any more light on the subject and give us an idea how likely a QE programme is, Pound/Euro rates could well pick up further the more likely it seems that they are concerned about the Euro. 

I don’t think there’s much more to see in GBP/EUR getting too much higher however, due to the Bank of England not wanting the Pound to gain much more due to the effect it would have on our exports and in turn, the UK’s economic recovery. 

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Sterling/Dollar 

Looking at other currencies, GBP/USD rates have crept up today steadily throughout the day after jobs numbers from the states disappointed on Friday. This has caused the Dollar to weaken and we’re now back above the $1.66 level. 

These gains could be short lived though – if the ECB members comments this week do weaken the Euro, then an inverse effect of that would be a strengthening US Dollar and lower GBP/USD rates. This is because the USD is a safe haven currency, so worries in the Eurozone would cause investors to move back to the safety of the Dollar, strengthen it and making it cheaper to buy. 

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This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday 7th April 2014 - It’s been fairly quiet on the data front today, with the only noteworthy release being Industrial Production data from Germany, Europe’s largest economy. The numbers were a little better than expected, giving the Euro a little spike and pushing GBP/EUR rates lower, but not by much. 

Tuesday 8th April 2014 - At 09:30am we have the latest UK Industrial and Manufacturing production figures. These can often affect the value of the Pound. We will also see the latest NIESR GDP estimate released at 3pm. The last result showed growth of 0.8%, and if we see a higher number today, Sterling could gain. 

Wednesday 9th April 2014 - Another important UK release today, Trade Balance figures at 09:30am. The market is already expecting a negative number, but if the number is even worse than expected then Sterling could take a hit. Germany also releases its Trade Balance figures today. 

Further afield, the USA will release the minutes of their recent FOMC meeting at 7pm. I think that the US will keep tapering its QE programme this year, and if the minutes support this then expect GBP/USD rates to dip away as the greenback gains strength. 

Thursday 10th April 2014-  The Bank of England announces today if it will change its interest rates and QE programme – I expect rates to be left at 0.5% so don’t think it will affect exchange rates. 

Elsewhere, Australia releases a raft of unemployment data that could affect GBP/AUD rates. The US also have jobless figures, so Dollar rates could also swing today. 

Friday 11th April 2014 - After a very busy week for UK data, we end on a quieter note with nothing of interest from the UK. Germany has some inflation figures, as does the United States, along with a consumer sentiment survey, released at lunchtime. 

Find out more about the rates and service I offer 

If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: 

Click here to send a free enquiry 
Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 

Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’