Pound recovers over interest rate confusion

Monday 18th August 2014 
Things can move very quickly in the currency markets, and the Pound has recovered some of its losses today. So what has caused the Pound to rise? Strangely it is exactly the same as what caused it to fall last week; comments from the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. In today’s report I’ll look at the mixed signals he is giving on interest rates, and why this is affecting exchange rates.

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Mark Carney continues to confuse the market over interest rates 

In my post last Wednesday, I explained that it was the expectation of interest rates going up in the UK that has been pushing the Pound higher and higher this year. Last week however Mark Carney hinted that rates would not be going up this year, and that is what caused the Pound to drop last week. (Higher interest rates strengthen a currency and vice versa).

Over the weekend however in an interview in the Sunday Times, he was very non-committal, saying that holding off raising rates is "an expectation not a promise". 

He seems to change his mind quicker than the weather in the UK; one week he says that “rates would not rise above their current historic low, of half a per cent, before next year because of a "remarkably weak" rise in real wages.” and just a few days later he says that “the base rate may have to go up before households enjoy a rise in living standards.” 

So which is it? Confused? We are, and I think Carney may be too!  A little while ago his mixed signals over interest rates have been compared by one MP to him blowing hot and cold, like an unreliable boyfriend, and it's causing volatility in exchange rates.

What effect has this had on exchange rates? 

His comments last week caused the Pound to fall, however this morning the Pound was up again as markets try to decipher when interest rates will go up. 

So which was could rates move in the coming weeks? It’s impossible to know, and much will depend on what Carney says next.

The most important releases for the UK will be Wednesdays Bank of England minutes. These will show what Carney and his Monetary Policy Committee discussed when they recently decided to keep rates on hold. With Carney not giving a very clear picture on what his thoughts are with interest rates, these minutes will be watched very closely to try and decipher what the other 8 members of the rate setting committee think. If one or more of them voted for a rate hike, expect exchange rates to go up. If all 9 members voted to keep rates on hold, expect the Pound to fall. 

Are looking to get the best possible exchange rates? 

Get in touch to see how I can help you. Regular readers will know there is alot that can affect the exchange rate, and taking advantage of my 10 years  expertise in the currency markets could save you thousands.

You can have a free no obligation chat with me about the exchange rate, and I can explain what is moving the rate and discuss which way it could move in the future. In this way you can make an informed choice on when to fix your exchange rate. 

When you decide to fix a rate, I can provide commercial exchange rates that are significantly better than banks offer, by as much as 5%. This means that I can save you thousands of Pounds when converting one currency to another. 

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This week's data that could affect exchange rates

Monday 28th April 2014
Good morning. Today I will give a brief outline of how Sterling exchange rates start the week, and then I’ll list all the economic data releases that I think will affect currency prices this week. 

Let’s start with how the Pound is performing this Monday morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar this morning, hitting $1.6850. This was due to a strengthening of the Pound after U.S. drug maker Pfizer confirmed it had made a bid approach to Britain's second-biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca.  

There weren’t any gains for Pound/Euro however, as the Euro is being kept strong by expectations that EU inflation will rise when figures are released later this week. 

Below I will list the main data releases I think will affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, and would like to get a quote or discuss how I can assist you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. 

This week’s economic data releases. 

Monday 28th April 2014 

It’s been a quiet start to the week, with the merger and acquisition news about Astra Zeneca giving the Pound a lift. The rest of today is also quiet, with some US Home Sales data due at 3pm. Later this evening we will see New Zealand’s latest trade balance data that could affect GBP/NZD rates. 

Tuesday 29th April 2014 

Today is the main day this week that might affect Pound/Euro rates. At 09:30am we will see the latest UK Gross Domestic Product figures. They’re expected to come in at 0.9% (quarterly) and 3.2% (annually), so any deviation from these numbers could see the Pound rise or fall accordingly. 

This is followed at 10am by EU Investor and Consumer confidence, so the Euro’s value could also be affected today. There are also German inflationary releases due at 1pm. 

Wednesday 30th April 2014 

Late on Tuesday evening UK Consumer confidence figures were due to be released, so when the markets open at 8am we could see some reaction. Also today we have Germany Retail Sales and Unemployment, and EU inflation numbers, so GBP/EUR could be affected. 

It’s a busy day stateside today, with GDP figures, a FED interest rate decision, and FED policy statement all expected to affect Sterling/Dollar rates. 

Thursday 1st May 2014 

Some minor Credit and Mortgage data is released from the UK this morning but I don’t expect it to affect rates. The rest of today’s ecostats are from the USA: Jobless Claims, a speech by Janet Yellen the FED chair, Manufacturing and Construction. GBP/USD will therefore be the currency pair most at risk today. 

Friday 2nd May 2014 

UK Construction data, along with EU Unemployment and growth forecasts will drive the Sterling/Euro pair today. This afternoon we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls – these are usually very different from forecast so often causes GBP/USD to move - the numbers are released at 1.30pm so expect a choppy day’s trade for cable. 

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Sterling/Euro €1.21 & Sterling/Dollar $1.6740

Tuesday 15th April 2014
Sterling is holding firm above €1.21 against the Euro, and has risen to $1.6740 vs the US Dollar. The Pound has however remainder relatively range-bound this week without pushing much higher than that. Its 2 things keeping the rate supported: firstly we had the ECB president over the weekend say that if the Euro strengthens, they will look at stimulus. Today, UK inflation numbers were as expected, increasing the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK next year. 

In today’s post I’ll take a look at these 2 things that are keeping rates supported, and explain how you can take advantage of the current rates which are around a 16 month high. 

ECB warns of stimulus if Euro strengthens further 

ECB President Mario Draghi said in Washington on Saturday that "further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus." 

So what does this actually mean? 

If the Euro were to strengthen, it would become more expensive to buy and Sterling/Euro rates would fall. His comments effectively say that if the Euro were indeed to strengthen, they may pursue a Quantitative Easing programme to stop it doing so. This has kept GBP/EUR rates at the €1.21 level. 

So if this is the case, could rates go higher? I don’t think so, unless they actually decide to go ahead and pursue a QE programme. At the moment it’s just rhetoric, so while it’s keeping rates from falling, it’s unlikely they will rise in the short term. 

For those of you that need to sell Euros, this means rates are likely to remain range-bound so you may wish to consider fixing a rate sooner rather than later. It’s the same story for Euro buyers, as rates have failed to go higher than these levels recently. 

UK Inflation numbers also keep the Pound supported 

Inflation numbers came in as expected at 1.6% this morning. Some in the market thought the number would be a little lower, which would have meant less chance of an interest rate hike in the UK in 2015. 

Higher interest rates mean a higher return for investors, so speculation it will happen sooner rather than later is good for the Pound. As the number was as expected, it remains the case we think rates will rise in 2015, so this gave Sterling a little boost this morning. 

Are you looking for the best exchange rates? 

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Why not get in touch for a free chat about the service I can offer? I can offer you a consultation to discuss the options available to you, provide you with a rate to compare with your bank or existing broker, and discuss with you what’s happening in the currency markets to help you decide when to fix a rate. 

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