Tuesday 29th April 2014For the last week exchange rates have been quite stable, without much volatility. Today however we have seen some choppy movements on the Sterling/Euro rate in particular, following data releases from the UK and Germany. Let’s have a look at how it has affected exchange rates: 
Pound slips after growth figures lower than expected
This morning the UK’s latest GDP figures were released, showing that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014. This is the 5th consecutive period of GDP growth - the longest positive run since the financial crisis. However the Pound fell on the news as the market had been expecting it to be even higher, at 0.9%. Just before the release rates rose slightly in anticipation of a good result as you can see in the chart above. You can also see the sharp drop the moment the actual number was released. In the currency markets, figures like this are forecast in advance and priced into exchange rates accordingly. Pound/Euro rates bounce back after German Inflation data
After the UK’s figures, GBP/EUR sat around the €1.21 level. At 1pm Germany released its latest inflation numbers. Much like the UK’s release, Germany’s figures were slightly lower than expected, and this caused the Euro to weaken and become cheaper to buy. Germany is the EU’s largest economy so that’s why the results had quite a big impact on Pound/Euro rates, helping them to recover up to €1.2180. Looking for the best exchange rates?
If you have a currency requirement, and would like to discuss what might move the exchange rate, then get in touch with me for a free chat. I can discuss what you need to do and talk over what might move the exchange rate. I can also provide you a quote to compare with your bank or existing currency broker - even a small difference in the rate can often save you thousands of Pounds. I can help you get the best exchange rates if you: need to buy property overseas, sell property and convert funds back to Sterling, monthly transfers to a Euro account, business’s buying or selling goods in foreign currencies etc. (I trade all the worlds major currencies, not just the Euro.)Click here to get in touch and find out more about the rates I can provide. Alastair Archbold
Monday 28th April 2014Good morning. Today I will give a brief outline of how Sterling exchange rates start the week, and then I’ll list all the economic data releases that I think will affect currency prices this week. Let’s start with how the Pound is performing this Monday morning. Sterling has risen against the US Dollar this morning, hitting $1.6850. This was due to a strengthening of the Pound after U.S. drug maker Pfizer confirmed it had made a bid approach to Britain's second-biggest drugs group, AstraZeneca. There weren’t any gains for Pound/Euro however, as the Euro is being kept strong by expectations that EU inflation will rise when figures are released later this week. Below I will list the main data releases I think will affect exchange rates. If you have a currency transaction to perform, and would like to get a quote or discuss how I can assist you, click here to send me a free no obligation enquiry. This week’s economic data releases.
Monday 28th April 2014 It’s been a quiet start to the week, with the merger and acquisition news about Astra Zeneca giving the Pound a lift. The rest of today is also quiet, with some US Home Sales data due at 3pm. Later this evening we will see New Zealand’s latest trade balance data that could affect GBP/NZD rates. Tuesday 29th April 2014 Today is the main day this week that might affect Pound/Euro rates. At 09:30am we will see the latest UK Gross Domestic Product figures. They’re expected to come in at 0.9% (quarterly) and 3.2% (annually), so any deviation from these numbers could see the Pound rise or fall accordingly. This is followed at 10am by EU Investor and Consumer confidence, so the Euro’s value could also be affected today. There are also German inflationary releases due at 1pm. Wednesday 30th April 2014 Late on Tuesday evening UK Consumer confidence figures were due to be released, so when the markets open at 8am we could see some reaction. Also today we have Germany Retail Sales and Unemployment, and EU inflation numbers, so GBP/EUR could be affected. It’s a busy day stateside today, with GDP figures, a FED interest rate decision, and FED policy statement all expected to affect Sterling/Dollar rates. Thursday 1st May 2014 Some minor Credit and Mortgage data is released from the UK this morning but I don’t expect it to affect rates. The rest of today’s ecostats are from the USA: Jobless Claims, a speech by Janet Yellen the FED chair, Manufacturing and Construction. GBP/USD will therefore be the currency pair most at risk today. Friday 2nd May 2014 UK Construction data, along with EU Unemployment and growth forecasts will drive the Sterling/Euro pair today. This afternoon we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls – these are usually very different from forecast so often causes GBP/USD to move - the numbers are released at 1.30pm so expect a choppy day’s trade for cable. Find out more about the rates and service I offer
If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Thursday 24th April 2014 Sterling remains well supported today, however rates haven’t risen any higher following the press conference by ECB member Mario Draghi.Sterling/Euro remains at €1.2150
As highlighted in previous posts this week, there was a chance that Pound/Euro rates could have risen today. 
The ECB president Mario Draghi has been warning against a strong Euro, and in recent speeches he has given little hints about further monetary easing to stop the Euro getting too strong. He gave a press conference this morning, during which he could well have talked about the Euro being overvalued if he had chosen to do so, and if he had hinted at some sort of easing I would have expected GBP/EUR to make gains. In the event it had no real effect. He did say that the ECB could make asset purchases to ward off the threat of disinflation, and mentioned that undue tightening of monetary conditions could lead to negative deposit rates, but didn’t really add anything to what he has already said previously. Read all his comments here if you so wish!So rates did climb a little from 1.2130 to 1.2150, where they remain at the time of writing. We saw a slight dip in rates before his speech but as the chart below shows, with nothing new on offer in his words, the market returned to its starting point. We now look ahead to tomorrow morning’s UK Retail Sales. I’m expected the number to show growth of around 3.8%. As Retail Sales are a good overall barometer of economic activity, it could push Sterling higher if the actual number surprises to the upside. Sterling/Euro close to a 14 month high
The current levels are within 1 cent of the best they have been since January 2013 so it does seem to be a favourable time to buy Euros with Sterling. If you have an upcoming currency requirement, then why not get in touch to see what rate I can offer you, those with large volumes to convert may be surprised at the difference even a slightly better rate of exchange can make.Alastair Archbold
Wednesday 23rd April We’ve had good news and bad news about the UK economy today, but the bad news won the day and as a result we have seen the Pound fall, as I suggested that it would in my post yesterday, and it was for the reason I predicted, the Bank of England minutes. I’ll give you the good news first after a quick snapshot of today's Pound/Euro movements:The good news:
At 09:30am this morning we actually had some very positive UK data – figures showed that Public Sector borrowing by the government was much less than expected. Markets expected a number of £9.1bn, but the actual figure was only £4.86bn. This was very good news, however failed to make any impact on the value of the Pound as everyone waited for the Bank of England minutes. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has increased its UK economic growth forecast for the first quarter of the year, from 0.9% to 1%. There was further good news for the economy from a survey by the CBI, which indicated strong growth in orders for UK manufacturers. The bad news:
Now for the bad news, and this is what affected the currency markets today. Focus today was always going to be about the Bank of England minutes. These showed that there is no real consensus within the Monetary Policy Committee, and they highlighted a growing debate between policymakers about slack in the economy and the medium-term inflation outlook. The markets took this as a sign that an interest rate hike in the UK is some way off, and as the chart below shows we saw the Pound/Euro level drop from 1.22 down to 1.2130 where it settled. What next for Pound/Euro
I actually think this dip may be short lived. The next main data is tomorrow’s speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi. As I outlined yesterday, he may hint at monetary easing, such as Quantitative Easing, to stop the Euro getting to strong. If he does hint at this in his speech at 11am tomorrow, then expect GBP/EUR to bounce back. Those with Euros to sell should therefore consider taking advantage of the dip we have seen today. Euro buyers should hold off for gains, but place a Stop Loss order to protect you in case he says nothing about easing and the rate drops further. We also have UK Retail Sales on Friday which I think could be better than many analysts expect, so I don’t think we’ll see the rate drop much further in the short term. Do you have a currency transaction to make and want the best Euro rates?
I can help in a number of ways. Firstly I can source excellent exchange rates, so why not get in touch for a quote to compare with your bank or existing broker. I could get you a rate up to 5% better than you can elsewhere.I can also discuss what is moving the market to help you to decide when to lock in a rate. I also offer various types of currency contract designed to protect against adverse market movements, and target rates above the current market. Whether you are buying or selling property abroad, or need to move one currency to another to pay for goods overseas, I can help you. Click here to send me a free enquiry
Tuesday 22nd April 2014 Good afternoon, and welcome back to regular currency updates after the Easter break. It’s been a quiet start to the week with no major data releases, and Sterling/Euro remains quite close to €1.22, with Sterling/Dollar hovering a little above $1.6800. Will Pound/Euro rates go up or down this week?
There are 2 key things happening this week that I think will affect exchange rates. I’ve listed the week’s data at the bottom of today’s post, but I will also go into a little detail about the main releases that I think could change Pound/Euro rates. In effect we have the central banks of the UK and Europe pulling in different directions, and this will likely have an impact on which way the Pound/Euro currency pair could go in the coming weeks and months…. Bank of England could cause GBP/EUR rates to fall
Tomorrow morning we have the latest minutes from the BoE meeting, and this will show what was discussed with regards to interest rates. I expect they may well hint that they will now be looking at a broad range of factors that will determine when they will raise interest rates. If this hints that rates won’t rise until well into 2015, then the Pound may weaken off and erode the gains we saw last week. European Central Bank could cause GBP/EUR rates to rise
On Thursday, the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to give a keynote speech. He recently made clear the euro's strength is a possible trigger for the central bank to ease monetary policy. Very weak inflation in the euro zone, due partly to the strong exchange rate, has raised pressure on the ECB to further loosen monetary policy to stimulate growth. In the past few weeks Draghi has brought the currency into focus and warned that any further strengthening could lead the euro zone's central bank to use unconventional tools such as asset purchases. If he expands on this further, the Euro could weaken and GBP/EUR rates could rise. So as you can see, we could see rates move either way this week due to the above. To discuss your requirements in more detail, or if you would like a quote on the best exchange rate I can get for you, click here to send me a free enquiry today. The rest of this week’s economic data
Wednesday 23rd April 2014 The important data today is the Bank of England minutes, which show what was discussed in their recent interest rate meeting. They could well hint that a rate hike is some way off, which would weaken the Pound and cause exchange rates to drop. We also have Inflation data from the Eurozone, Home Sales data from the United States, and an Interest rate decision from New Zealand. I think they will raise rates, which will cause GBP/NZD to fall if they indeed choose to do so. Thursday 24th April 2014 There is nothing of note from the UK today, but as I mentioned in my introduction, we have a speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi. He could hint at monetary easing, which would weaken the Euro and cause GBP/EUR rates to go up. Stateside we have Jobless claims numbers, so GBP/USD could be affected. Friday 25th April 2014 We end the week with UK Retail Sales and mortgage approvals, and a consumer sentiment survey from the USA. Find out more about the rates and service I offer If you have a currency transaction to perform and would like to find out how I can help you, get in touch in the following ways: Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
Wednesday 16th April 2014 The Pound has surged higher today, after the latest UK unemployment figures were released. These showed that the jobless rate has dipped below 7%, the first time we’ve seen that for 5 years. As a result, Sterling has surged higher, finally breaking above the €1.21 mark as you can see from today’s chart below: UK Unemployment causes Pound to rise
As the chart clearly shows, as soon as the numbers were released, Sterling/Euro rates rose to €1.2150 before settling off. Sterling/Dollar also rose, hitting resistance at $1.68 to the Pound. You can read a full report on the Unemployment figures here on the BBC website , and the ONS result can be found here. So why has this caused the Pound to gain?
It’s to do with interest rates again. The Bank said last August that it would not begin to think about raising rates until unemployment fell below 7pc. At the time, it believed this would not occur until 2016. Higher interest rates, or the possibility of higher rates in the future, generally strengthens a currency due to the increased return potential, and that’s what we’ve seen happen today. As the level started to drop below this, they revised their guidance saying that when the rate falls below this, it won’t trigger a rate hike, but it does mean the Bank of England will move away from its focus on a single threshold to decide when to raise interest rates. It will now look at a broad range of "key judgements" including business investment, exports and productivity, which it outlined in February. Will the Pound go higher or drop back away?
That’s the question everybody wants the answer to, but is impossible to predict. I think that much will now depend what the Bank of England say. They could as I’ve stated above, introduce new judgements before raising rates. This will probably be inflation falling to the 2% target – until we hear the reaction from the BoE the market probably won’t go much higher. Those that need to buy Euros should be aware rates were actually even higher than this earlier in the year, but then fell back away. For the last few months the GBP/EUR rate has hovered between €1.19 and €1.21. Today’s events have broken above that barrier. If I needed Euros, then I would consider the risk of the Bank of England moving to weaken the Pound off, which they have already said they would look to do if the exchange rate rose too much. That’s now happened, so we could see it drop back towards €1.20 again in the coming weeks. Don’t take the risk – place a Stop Loss order to protect against the market moving against you. Those selling Euros will not be pleased with today’s news. I don’t think that the rate will drop below €1.20 any time soon, and is likely to remain roughly where it is until we hear what the BoE have to say about today’s news. Take control of your currency requirement
Don’t just sit back and hope the rate will move your way; hope is not a reliable economic tool. I can provide various tools however to protect against the market going the wrong way, ways to fix your rate well in advance of when you need to convert your currency, and explain the different scenarios that could happen in the coming weeks and months. In this way you can take control of your currency requirement and make an informed decision on what to do and when to do it. Click here to get in touchI look forward to hearing from you. Alastair Archbold
Tuesday 15th April 2014 Sterling is holding firm above €1.21 against the Euro, and has risen to $1.6740 vs the US Dollar. The Pound has however remainder relatively range-bound this week without pushing much higher than that. Its 2 things keeping the rate supported: firstly we had the ECB president over the weekend say that if the Euro strengthens, they will look at stimulus. Today, UK inflation numbers were as expected, increasing the chance of an interest rate hike in the UK next year. In today’s post I’ll take a look at these 2 things that are keeping rates supported, and explain how you can take advantage of the current rates which are around a 16 month high. ECB warns of stimulus if Euro strengthens further
ECB President Mario Draghi said in Washington on Saturday that "further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus." So what does this actually mean? If the Euro were to strengthen, it would become more expensive to buy and Sterling/Euro rates would fall. His comments effectively say that if the Euro were indeed to strengthen, they may pursue a Quantitative Easing programme to stop it doing so. This has kept GBP/EUR rates at the €1.21 level. So if this is the case, could rates go higher? I don’t think so, unless they actually decide to go ahead and pursue a QE programme. At the moment it’s just rhetoric, so while it’s keeping rates from falling, it’s unlikely they will rise in the short term. For those of you that need to sell Euros, this means rates are likely to remain range-bound so you may wish to consider fixing a rate sooner rather than later. It’s the same story for Euro buyers, as rates have failed to go higher than these levels recently. UK Inflation numbers also keep the Pound supported
Inflation numbers came in as expected at 1.6% this morning. Some in the market thought the number would be a little lower, which would have meant less chance of an interest rate hike in the UK in 2015. Higher interest rates mean a higher return for investors, so speculation it will happen sooner rather than later is good for the Pound. As the number was as expected, it remains the case we think rates will rise in 2015, so this gave Sterling a little boost this morning. Are you looking for the best exchange rates?
Whether you need to convert Sterling to Euros, move Euros back to Pounds, or convert any other major currency – I can help you source excellent rates of exchange that are up to 5% better than banks can offer. When converting large volumes, the savings can be very considerable indeed. Why not get in touch for a free chat about the service I can offer? I can offer you a consultation to discuss the options available to you, provide you with a rate to compare with your bank or existing broker, and discuss with you what’s happening in the currency markets to help you decide when to fix a rate. Click here to send a free enquiry Call me directly: +44 (0) 1442 892 066 Ask for Alastair Archbold, and quote ref ‘FERF’
If you have a currency requirement, and would like to discuss what might move the exchange rate, then get in touch with me for a free chat. I can discuss what you need to do and talk over what might move the exchange rate. 
